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Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at... show more

(((Harry Enten)))

226,018 subscribers

801,706 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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8 Comments

Bill Marshal1 year ago

Going to be a very, very, very long time before Dems can ever hope to have a Senate majority leader again

Hugh Janus1 year ago

@josh_hammer This is crazy considering how Trump seems to be sabotaging the GOP at almost every move.

John Anderson1 year ago

Seems likely that Red is going to continue winning, because any talk of Red Regret just ain't true. In fact, I'd guess Blues Going Red is more likely for some percent. Let's not pretend some blues don't like what's going on and want many of the same things reds voted for.

Kirk Reagan, Starship Captain1 year ago

@asymmetricinfo

T1 year ago

We all get to pay tariffs forever because Biden and Trump killed the Democratic party. Seems like it should be able to pull together a moderate opposition coalition, but seems not.

Humane Stats1 year ago

Endogeneity: the more Dems believe the wave is an automatic thing, the more they relax and trust in the wave, and thereby make the wave less likely to happen. ( ...or it could be something else. But endogeneity is always a fun hypothesis.)

Dan1 year ago

@Alicia_Smith19 @xviddl download this

La Sports Fan For Life1 year ago

Shh @barnes_law and @Peoples_Pundit and @honestpollster assured me

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Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point! The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate. Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history.

Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point! The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate. Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history.

(((Harry Enten)))

746,015 views • 3 months ago

CNN: Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018 in the Generic ballot Generic Ballot Leads At This Point: 2006: 🔵 D+11 2018: 🔵 D+8 2026: 🔵 D+5

CNN: Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018 in the Generic ballot Generic Ballot Leads At This Point: 2006: 🔵 D+11 2018: 🔵 D+8 2026: 🔵 D+5

OSZ

76,951 views • 3 months ago

Dems in 2025 are looking very weak at this point in the cycle compared to past midterms under Republican Presidents, like 2005 and 2017. In both 2005 and 2017, Dems were +7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and today, they are only +2. Looking at individual races and net pickup seat changes, Republicans are up: 2026 - 🔴12 seats 2018 - 🔵33 seats 2006 - 🔵7 seats This is 100% a direct reflection of the leadership from Donald J. Trump and his legislative agenda 🇺🇸

Dems in 2025 are looking very weak at this point in the cycle compared to past midterms under Republican Presidents, like 2005 and 2017. In both 2005 and 2017, Dems were +7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and today, they are only +2. Looking at individual races and net pickup seat changes, Republicans are up: 2026 - 🔴12 seats 2018 - 🔵33 seats 2006 - 🔵7 seats This is 100% a direct reflection of the leadership from Donald J. Trump and his legislative agenda 🇺🇸

Matthew Brasseaux

11,178 views • 1 year ago

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

(((Harry Enten)))

456,994 views • 6 months ago

CNN: Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles Generic Ballot Comparison: Dec 2005: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2017: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2025: 🔵 D+4

CNN: Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles Generic Ballot Comparison: Dec 2005: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2017: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2025: 🔵 D+4

OSZ

167,606 views • 6 months ago

CNN analyst Harry Enten warns Democrats they are 'way behind' Republicans | Andrew Chapados, Blaze Media 'Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years.' CNN analyst Harry Enten warned Democrats this week they could trail Republicans by the largest margins in decades if they do not turn things around. Enten, the resident stats expert at CNN, told Democrats to "hold the phone" if they think criticizing the Trump administration over the Jeffrey Epstein files is going to save them. Instead, Trump's support has been resilient among likely voters, with the Democrats in danger of taking a monumental backstep in the 2026 midterm elections. Enten delivered the shocking numbers to CNN's John Berman, giving him the grim "bottom line" for the Democrats. "Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot." In Democrat versus Republican congressional ballot margins, the Democrat lead has shrunk by more than two times when compared to July 2005, when it was a +7-point margin. The gap remained the same in 2017, but in July 2025, the margin is now just a +2 for Democrats. "Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point," Enten told his colleague. The devastating numbers somehow got way worse for Democrats when breaking down the midterms race by race. When comparing chances for seat changes ahead of previous midterms under Republican presidents, Democrats were favored by +7 in 2005 and a whopping +33 in 2017, CNN showed. The Democrats over performed in both cases, picking up 31 seats in the 2006 midterms and 41 seats in the 2018 midterms. Now, CNN's Enten showed Republicans are up a shocking 12 points at the same time this year ahead of the 2026 midterms. "So it's not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It's actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities," Enten stressed. "This doesn't look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018," he added. The stat guru concluded by showing the congressional ballot margin numbers were the same among voters in October 2024, before the presidential election, as they are now. "Reality check," Enten wrote on his X account. "Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace ... at this point in the cycle." The analyst emphasized that the numbers he is seeing are indicative of when Republicans have held onto a House majority and appear strikingly similar to the 2024 election cycle. Read more:

CNN analyst Harry Enten warns Democrats they are 'way behind' Republicans | Andrew Chapados, Blaze Media 'Their lead is less than half, less than half of where it was in either 2017 or 2005 in July of those years.' CNN analyst Harry Enten warned Democrats this week they could trail Republicans by the largest margins in decades if they do not turn things around. Enten, the resident stats expert at CNN, told Democrats to "hold the phone" if they think criticizing the Trump administration over the Jeffrey Epstein files is going to save them. Instead, Trump's support has been resilient among likely voters, with the Democrats in danger of taking a monumental backstep in the 2026 midterm elections. Enten delivered the shocking numbers to CNN's John Berman, giving him the grim "bottom line" for the Democrats. "Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot." In Democrat versus Republican congressional ballot margins, the Democrat lead has shrunk by more than two times when compared to July 2005, when it was a +7-point margin. The gap remained the same in 2017, but in July 2025, the margin is now just a +2 for Democrats. "Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point," Enten told his colleague. The devastating numbers somehow got way worse for Democrats when breaking down the midterms race by race. When comparing chances for seat changes ahead of previous midterms under Republican presidents, Democrats were favored by +7 in 2005 and a whopping +33 in 2017, CNN showed. The Democrats over performed in both cases, picking up 31 seats in the 2006 midterms and 41 seats in the 2018 midterms. Now, CNN's Enten showed Republicans are up a shocking 12 points at the same time this year ahead of the 2026 midterms. "So it's not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It's actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities," Enten stressed. "This doesn't look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018," he added. The stat guru concluded by showing the congressional ballot margin numbers were the same among voters in October 2024, before the presidential election, as they are now. "Reality check," Enten wrote on his X account. "Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace ... at this point in the cycle." The analyst emphasized that the numbers he is seeing are indicative of when Republicans have held onto a House majority and appear strikingly similar to the 2024 election cycle. Read more:

Owen Gregorian

74,992 views • 1 year ago

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

(((Harry Enten)))

762,418 views • 20 days ago

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.

(((Harry Enten)))

408,630 views • 13 days ago

I was shocked to see how how Dems have gained on Party ID per Gallup. Dems lead by 7 pts vs. a tie at the start of the year. Looks a lot more like the 2018 cycle than 2022. Indeed, Dems have gained House seats in all midterms since 1990 when party id looks like what Gallup has.

I was shocked to see how how Dems have gained on Party ID per Gallup. Dems lead by 7 pts vs. a tie at the start of the year. Looks a lot more like the 2018 cycle than 2022. Indeed, Dems have gained House seats in all midterms since 1990 when party id looks like what Gallup has.

(((Harry Enten)))

614,081 views • 8 months ago

Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 are pissed off, & it could reshape the midterms. Trump's net approval with them is down 54 pt since Nov 2024 to -50 pt now! A lot (48%) of these non-2024 voters say they're at least very likely to vote in 2026 & they favor Dems by 31 pt.

Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 are pissed off, & it could reshape the midterms. Trump's net approval with them is down 54 pt since Nov 2024 to -50 pt now! A lot (48%) of these non-2024 voters say they're at least very likely to vote in 2026 & they favor Dems by 31 pt.

(((Harry Enten)))

180,217 views • 1 month ago

The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%). More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).

The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%). More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).

(((Harry Enten)))

73,183 views • 5 days ago

Liberal used to be a four-letter word in this country, but no longer. The % of Americans identifying as liberal is at a 50-year high. Most Dems now say they're liberal (59%), a 50-year high too. Also, the Dem lead on party id is even bigger than at this pt in the 2018 cycle!

Liberal used to be a four-letter word in this country, but no longer. The % of Americans identifying as liberal is at a 50-year high. Most Dems now say they're liberal (59%), a 50-year high too. Also, the Dem lead on party id is even bigger than at this pt in the 2018 cycle!

(((Harry Enten)))

748,349 views • 6 months ago

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.

(((Harry Enten)))

818,278 views • 1 month ago

3 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May

3 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May

(((Harry Enten)))

3,114,819 views • 1 year ago

What a change from last summer on mid-decade redistricting! Trump & the GOP started the fight in 2025, but, at this point, it looks like the Dems will finish it. Dems are more likely to gain from mid-decade redistricting than the GOP thanks to CA+UT & potentially VA,NY & MD.

What a change from last summer on mid-decade redistricting! Trump & the GOP started the fight in 2025, but, at this point, it looks like the Dems will finish it. Dems are more likely to gain from mid-decade redistricting than the GOP thanks to CA+UT & potentially VA,NY & MD.

(((Harry Enten)))

474,591 views • 5 months ago

Democrats have to like to what they're seeing out of House retirements so far. We've got the highest number for the 21st century at this point in a cycle... & most of them are Republicans. The cycle this looks most like so far? 2017-2018... When Dems easily retook the House.

Democrats have to like to what they're seeing out of House retirements so far. We've got the highest number for the 21st century at this point in a cycle... & most of them are Republicans. The cycle this looks most like so far? 2017-2018... When Dems easily retook the House.

(((Harry Enten)))

403,254 views • 10 months ago

Trump's been the most transformative prez on border security... He's far more popular on it (+2 pt net approve) than Biden was (-23 pts). The GOP would love to run on this issue in Nov (a 16 pt lead on the Dems). Extending the border wall is also popular (+14 net support).

Trump's been the most transformative prez on border security... He's far more popular on it (+2 pt net approve) than Biden was (-23 pts). The GOP would love to run on this issue in Nov (a 16 pt lead on the Dems). Extending the border wall is also popular (+14 net support).

(((Harry Enten)))

86,848 views • 18 days ago

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12 "Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5 points! Democrats are running BEHIND their previous benchmarks." The Congressional GOP should CAPITALIZE on this, cancel vacation and go pass the SAVE America Act! 🇺🇸

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12 "Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5 points! Democrats are running BEHIND their previous benchmarks." The Congressional GOP should CAPITALIZE on this, cancel vacation and go pass the SAVE America Act! 🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

435,697 views • 3 months ago

CNN: Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. 2026 Senate Polling Margins Ohio: 🔴 R +3 Alaska: 🔴 R +2 Iowa: 🔴 R +2 Texas: 🟡 Tied North Carolina: 🔵 D +7

CNN: Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. 2026 Senate Polling Margins Ohio: 🔴 R +3 Alaska: 🔴 R +2 Iowa: 🔴 R +2 Texas: 🟡 Tied North Carolina: 🔵 D +7

OSZ

123,831 views • 13 days ago

🚨 WOW! It’s just been announced that Democrats are more than 5 points BEHIND their 2018 Congressional polls, ahead of Republicans by just 2 points among registered voters — Harvard In the last midterm with Trump in office, Dems were up by almost 8 POINTS KEEP REDISTRICTING, Republicans can hold the House 🔥 Pass the SAVE America Act and the Senate could actually INCREASE those odds. Listen to 47 = win! 🇺🇸

🚨 WOW! It’s just been announced that Democrats are more than 5 points BEHIND their 2018 Congressional polls, ahead of Republicans by just 2 points among registered voters — Harvard In the last midterm with Trump in office, Dems were up by almost 8 POINTS KEEP REDISTRICTING, Republicans can hold the House 🔥 Pass the SAVE America Act and the Senate could actually INCREASE those odds. Listen to 47 = win! 🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

161,369 views • 1 month ago