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3 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to... show more

(((Harry Enten)))

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3,114,839 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

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10 Kommentare

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Russell Drewvor 2 Jahren

I would point out that Republicans haven’t had a good election cycle since 2016. And even that has an asterisk next to it because Donald Trump lost the popular level by two percentage points. Dems have been doing well ever since. The majority of Americans remain opposed to him.

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Pro America Politicsvor 2 Jahren

They ARE underestimating Trump again. Because they can't stop putting out D+5 polling samples.

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dravida sishuvor 2 Jahren

Trump being more popular than 2016/20 in isolation without mentioning Harris net favorables much higher than Hillary doesn’t make sense. Post DNC Harris could end up with an even net favorability as opposed to Trump who is still 8 to 10 points underwater.

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AdamInHTownTXvor 2 Jahren

2 and 3 are devastating for Dems. There's no NeverTrump segment of the GOP base like in 2016. He's got the party united behind him. And they're eager to turn out to vote and are outregistering the Dems in swing states. Meanwhile, Kamala's campaign has to pay people to post positive things on social media.

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TheJManvor 2 Jahren

yet.. he loses virtually every election since 2016. special elections, Midterms, ballot initiatives...

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Bruno Chiecovor 2 Jahren

They’re not winning anything Harry. More Republicans than ever are abandoning the sinking Trump ship, and he’s even under 50 percent in Ohio according to his campaign’s internal polling.

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JaneDoeCitizenvor 2 Jahren

is a true warrior registering, new people, who have NEVER voted before. He's already flipped a country in PA & hasn't slowed down a single bit. Here in Colorado, they put open primaries on the ballot! Unfortunately, our elections are horribly insecure with progressives in the cities, in control.

Profilbild von Spencer Hakimian

Spencer Hakimianvor 2 Jahren

And, if it’s the same rust belt polling error as it was in 2016/2020, it won’t be a particularly close election either (as of today). Don’t forget that Wisconsin has been the most incorrect state 2 elections in a row for pollsters. At least when Trump was on the ballot.

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Carl Allenvor 2 Jahren

1 caution point for Harry... 1. Your statistically illiterate analysis is literally what @RCPolitics did to produce this in 2022 Thanks, hope you learned something today.

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Brettvor 2 Jahren

So people who answer their phones are still responding the same way

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Why is Harris on the attack? Trump's more popular at this point in this campaign than at this point in either his 2016 or 2020 bids. Harris's popularity rise, on the other hand, has crested, and she's fallen back (barely) into net negative favorability territory.

Why is Harris on the attack? Trump's more popular at this point in this campaign than at this point in either his 2016 or 2020 bids. Harris's popularity rise, on the other hand, has crested, and she's fallen back (barely) into net negative favorability territory.

(((Harry Enten)))

822,524 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Why are Democrats bedwetting? The race is closer than it was 3 weeks ago in MI, PA, & WI. Way too close to call in all 3. Also, Harris is doing 6 points worse on avg. in them than Biden at this point in 2020. Also Dems worry more about a Trump presidency than GOP about Harris

Why are Democrats bedwetting? The race is closer than it was 3 weeks ago in MI, PA, & WI. Way too close to call in all 3. Also, Harris is doing 6 points worse on avg. in them than Biden at this point in 2020. Also Dems worry more about a Trump presidency than GOP about Harris

(((Harry Enten)))

4,069,369 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨BREAKING: CNN is sounding the alarm about Trumps popularity! You know they’re in DEEP SHT if this is being brought up! “He is more popular at this point in the campaign than he was at this point in the 2020 campaign or the 2016 campaign.” “It is way higher than the -27 net favorability back in 2016 when he did win” “The momentum of Kamala Harris has stalled” “She wants to continue to see her favor abilities rise, but in fact, they're going in the wrong direction.”

🚨BREAKING: CNN is sounding the alarm about Trumps popularity! You know they’re in DEEP SHT if this is being brought up! “He is more popular at this point in the campaign than he was at this point in the 2020 campaign or the 2016 campaign.” “It is way higher than the -27 net favorability back in 2016 when he did win” “The momentum of Kamala Harris has stalled” “She wants to continue to see her favor abilities rise, but in fact, they're going in the wrong direction.”

Gunther Eagleman™

1,101,618 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Hot take? Turnout may drop in 2024. Fewer voters say they're certain to vote or enthusiastic about voting than in 2020. Why? Voters feel less is on the line. Fewer say 2024 is the most important election of their life than said the same about 2020. Makes each vote count more!

Hot take? Turnout may drop in 2024. Fewer voters say they're certain to vote or enthusiastic about voting than in 2020. Why? Voters feel less is on the line. Fewer say 2024 is the most important election of their life than said the same about 2020. Makes each vote count more!

(((Harry Enten)))

1,934,142 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨BREAKING: A CNN analyst reveals that for the first time since 1984, more Americans identify as Republicans than Democrats. 2016: D+3 2020: D+6 NOW: R+1 Historically, the GOP wins when it's D+3. With independents leaning, the current margin is R+3.

🚨BREAKING: A CNN analyst reveals that for the first time since 1984, more Americans identify as Republicans than Democrats. 2016: D+3 2020: D+6 NOW: R+1 Historically, the GOP wins when it's D+3. With independents leaning, the current margin is R+3.

KanekoaTheGreat

2,544,659 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨Even CNN just ADMITTED the polls have FAMOUSLY underestimated President Trump and Republicans. Points GOP was underestimated by in the polls: 2002: 3 2014: 3 2016: 3 2020: 5 2024: 3 Every Republican needs to make sure to GET OUT AND VOTE RED!

🚨Even CNN just ADMITTED the polls have FAMOUSLY underestimated President Trump and Republicans. Points GOP was underestimated by in the polls: 2002: 3 2014: 3 2016: 3 2020: 5 2024: 3 Every Republican needs to make sure to GET OUT AND VOTE RED!

Bo Loudon

35,530 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824. Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.) The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states.

Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824. Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.) The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states.

(((Harry Enten)))

4,977,464 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

This race is TIGHT: within 2 points in all 7 critical battlegrounds. Harris barely wins if the result matches the polls. But Trump crushes Harris & wins all the key states with a 2020 like poll miss. Harris, though, crushes Trump & wins all of them with a 2022 like poll miss.

This race is TIGHT: within 2 points in all 7 critical battlegrounds. Harris barely wins if the result matches the polls. But Trump crushes Harris & wins all the key states with a 2020 like poll miss. Harris, though, crushes Trump & wins all of them with a 2022 like poll miss.

(((Harry Enten)))

2,185,907 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Pollster: In January, Donald Trump's net approval rating was at -1 point. But look at this now, -24 points. Way, way down. We're talking about a drop of over 20 points in the wrong direction for Trump. The only president among Republicans or Democrats who's worse at this point in the second term is Richard Nixon.

Pollster: In January, Donald Trump's net approval rating was at -1 point. But look at this now, -24 points. Way, way down. We're talking about a drop of over 20 points in the wrong direction for Trump. The only president among Republicans or Democrats who's worse at this point in the second term is Richard Nixon.

FactPost

41,674 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

(((Harry Enten)))

764,278 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Don't count on polls underestimating Trump: 1. No party has ever been underestimated 3 pres. cycles in a row. 2. In 2020, right leaning polls correctly said averages were way off. In 2024, averages look a lot more like the right leaning polls. 3. 2022: Dems were underestimated.

Don't count on polls underestimating Trump: 1. No party has ever been underestimated 3 pres. cycles in a row. 2. In 2020, right leaning polls correctly said averages were way off. In 2024, averages look a lot more like the right leaning polls. 3. 2022: Dems were underestimated.

(((Harry Enten)))

3,791,231 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Trump in California: "The state is rigged ... no way we lose this state in a real election" (Trump lost to Biden by more than 30 points in 2020)

Trump in California: "The state is rigged ... no way we lose this state in a real election" (Trump lost to Biden by more than 30 points in 2020)

Aaron Rupar

1,614,432 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Now, let’s talk about treason. This is why Democrats are fighting to the death against giving up their voter rolls. The swing state of Nevada has more votes than voters in multiple elections: 2012 Election: 133,698 more votes than voters 2016 Election: 126,490 more votes than voters 2018 Election: 77,108 more votes than voters 2020 Election: 40,437 more votes than voters

Now, let’s talk about treason. This is why Democrats are fighting to the death against giving up their voter rolls. The swing state of Nevada has more votes than voters in multiple elections: 2012 Election: 133,698 more votes than voters 2016 Election: 126,490 more votes than voters 2018 Election: 77,108 more votes than voters 2020 Election: 40,437 more votes than voters

🇺🇸RealRobert🇺🇸

60,448 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

(((Harry Enten)))

456,994 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

American bought a Whopper at Burger King He shows the receipt, it is now $9.44. That’s just the sandwich, not the combo This same Whopper in 2016 used to be $3.99 for 1, or 2 for $6 and they looked better. The price has more than doubled

American bought a Whopper at Burger King He shows the receipt, it is now $9.44. That’s just the sandwich, not the combo This same Whopper in 2016 used to be $3.99 for 1, or 2 for $6 and they looked better. The price has more than doubled

Wall Street Apes

185,010 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨JUST IN: President Trump is OBLITERATING the fake polls "Fake polls are TOUGH, I saw one today I'm at 40% [approval]. I'm NOT at 40%, I'm much higher than that. I'd LOVE to run against anybody, the REAL polls say 'you'd kill everybody, wouldn't even be close!'" "Fake polls, fake stories, I said — it was good, because THIS is a MUCH more powerful term than I would've had [in 2020]. Now they compare it to Biden!"

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Eric Daugherty

60,811 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt.

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt.

(((Harry Enten)))

801,846 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

10 Shocking Stories the Media Buried Today #10 - Joe Rogan raises SERIOUS questions about Biden’s “81 million votes” in 2020. “Look at the difference in how many people voted for Biden in 2020. It's unprecedented! It's way higher than any other time since 2012.” “Look at where the number is. It's all like 65 million [votes for Dems in 2012, 2016, and 2024]. So that is all the same every f—king time except 2020. In 2020, it goes way the f—k up.” (See 9 More Revealing Stories Below)

10 Shocking Stories the Media Buried Today #10 - Joe Rogan raises SERIOUS questions about Biden’s “81 million votes” in 2020. “Look at the difference in how many people voted for Biden in 2020. It's unprecedented! It's way higher than any other time since 2012.” “Look at where the number is. It's all like 65 million [votes for Dems in 2012, 2016, and 2024]. So that is all the same every f—king time except 2020. In 2020, it goes way the f—k up.” (See 9 More Revealing Stories Below)

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

11,462,801 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr