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6-hour Loss-of-Control Risk (LCR, open-source winter driving risk) charts for the first half of December, showing the storms/clippers in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic storms, lake effect snow & freezing fog episodes. Server is now producing full-screen zoomable maps and KML files.

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Dan Robinson

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20,831 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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1/24 7 PM: Winter weather impacts are escalating rapidly across Texas as freezing rain, sleet, and snow intensify. Ice is now accumulating quickly in the Hill Country, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and East Texas, while snow continues in the Panhandle and West Texas. Roads are becoming slick fast, winds are increasing, and power outage risk is rising where freezing rain persists. 📷 Travel is becoming dangerous tonight across much of the nrorthern half of Texas. Resources: Road conditions: Warming shelters: Full updates & live coverage: 📷 Get local forecasts and live radar in the FREE Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.
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1/24 7 PM: Winter weather impacts are escalating rapidly across Texas as freezing rain, sleet, and snow intensify. Ice is now accumulating quickly in the Hill Country, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and East Texas, while snow continues in the Panhandle and West Texas. Roads are becoming slick fast, winds are increasing, and power outage risk is rising where freezing rain persists. 📷 Travel is becoming dangerous tonight across much of the nrorthern half of Texas. Resources: Road conditions: Warming shelters: Full updates & live coverage: 📷 Get local forecasts and live radar in the FREE Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.

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🌨️ 2:25PM | A full-blown snowstorm is underway in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas! 🥶❄️ Accumulating snow of up to 5 inches has been reported in Amarillo. A heavy snow band is affecting Lubbock, extending toward Floydada, Plainview, and Silverton, making travel on I-27 hazardous! 🚗💨 A cool front with scattered storms is moving east across the Piney Woods of East Texas, Southeast Texas, and into the Golden Triangle. 🌬️⚠️ A tornado watch remains in effect, but thankfully, storms have struggled to organize so far! 🙏 The severe weather threat for Houston will diminish by 4 PM, with the overall threat exiting the Golden Triangle and Far Southeast Texas by 7 PM. ⏰🌪️ We're closely monitoring the storms in case they intensify, as the atmosphere supports supercells with risks of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. 🌪️⚡ If we can keep the storms in check, that's fine with us! ✌️~David #TXwx

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“The Pass of Caradhras” was one of the most demanding sequences ever filmed for The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Shot on the real winter slopes of New Zealand's Southern Alps, the conditions were brutally cold the cast’s shivering wasn’t acting, and every breath you see on screen is 100% real.The Fellowship had to repeat long uphill walks in deep snow to maintain consistent formation. Viggo Mortensen insisted on carrying a real sword throughout the shoot, feeling the full weight and freezing temperature exactly as Aragorn would.Peter Jackson avoided artificial fog and breath effects, preserving the raw, physical struggle the crunching footsteps and sense of resistance in the snow were captured directly on location. ❄️

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At the G20 Summit, I outlined the impact of Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. While the full economic toll will take months to finalize, early estimates already show catastrophic losses. For Jamaica, and for small island developing states across CARICOM, the climate crisis is not abstract. It is an immediate and existential threat. A single climate event can erase decades of development and destabilise public finances overnight. Disaster risk reduction is therefore not optional, it is central to our national survival. Jamaica is determined to rebuild stronger and more resilient. We have activated our disaster-risk financing framework to support immediate response and recovery. But the scale of devastation exceeds what small economies can manage alone. I extend sincere appreciation to our international partners whose support has been critical. The unprecedented strength of Hurricane Melissa, following recent storms such as Hurricane Barry, underscores the urgency of global action. The world must adhere to the 1.5-degree target. Failure to act will guarantee more frequent and more destructive storms for countries like ours. Resilience must guide us. Investing in resilient infrastructure, diversified energy systems, and preparedness is simply sound economics. We call on G20 members to provide climate finance at the scale and concessionality required to rebuild, expand risk-transfer mechanisms, and strengthen agricultural systems that sustain livelihoods. Jamaica is committed to a just energy transition and to achieving at least 50% renewable electricity by 2030. But achieving these goals demands partnership, technology, financing, and capacity-building from major economies. Let us build the partnerships necessary to strengthen resilience and accelerate the transition to clean energy for the benefit of present and future generations.

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Storm of the century: the US paralyzed by winter storm Fern A vast part of the United States has been hit by one of the most powerful winter storms in the past 100 years. Blizzards, heavy snow and freezing rain have forced the cancellation of more than 13,000 flights nationwide. The severe weather is expected to last for several days, according to Reuters and the Associated Press. By the evening of January 24, more than 139,000 customers were left without electricity — and the number continues to rise. The hardest-hit states are Texas and Louisiana. In New York City, the bodies of three people who died from exposure were found on the streets — two men aged 67 and about 30, and an elderly woman. President Donald Trump approved a federal state of emergency in 12 states — from South Carolina to West Virginia — and urged Americans to “stay safe and warm.”

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FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS CYCLE, MORE THAN HALF OF ALL BITCOIN IS UNDERWATER. 🇺🇸 Roughly 53% of circulating supply now sits at a loss. Loss has overtaken profit for the first time since the last bear market. This exact crossover flashed in 2019, March 2020, and 2022. Every time, near a major cycle bottom. But history adds a warning: The signal marks the zone, not the day. In 2020 it lasted a month. In 2022, almost 6 months. This is the kind of moment that rewards attention, not haste. The opportunity is real. So is the patience it demands.

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2:10

Marc Andreessen explains the “Onion Theory of Risk” “I think the single-biggest thing entrepreneurs are missing — both on fundraising and how they run their companies — is the relationship between risk and cash. I’ve always been a fan of something Andy Rachleff taught me years ago. He calls it the ‘Onion Theory of Risk.’” You can think of a day 1 startup as having every conceivable kind of risk: founding team risk, product risk, technical risk, market acceptance risk, revenue risk, cost of sales risk, viral growth risk, etc. A startup is basically just a long list of risks, and as Marc explains: "The way I think about running a startup is the way I think about raising money. It's a process of peeling away layers of risk as you go." You raise seed money to peel away the first two or three risks (e.g. founding team risk, product risk, initial launch risk). You raise the Series A round to peel away the next layer of risks (e.g. recruiting risk, customer risk, revenue risk, cost of sales risk) And so on. Basically, you're peeling away risk as you're achieving milestones. And as you achieve milestones, you're both: making progress on your business and justifying raising more capital. So in terms of fundraising, you should be calibrating the amount money you're raising to the risks you need to pull out of your business for you to raise your next round. For example, if you're raising your Series A round, the best way to do that is to say to investors: "I raised a seed round then achieved ____ milestones and eliminated ____ risks. Now I'm going to raise $ X for the Series A to achieve ____ milestones and eliminate ____ risks. This will get the company to ____ state for the Series B round. " This seems fairly obvious, but as Marc points out, it's a much more systematic way of going about things versus just raising as much money as possible, renting fancy offices, and hiring as many people as you can to grow as fast as you can. The more money you raise, the more you dilute your ownership stake in your business so it pays to be thoughtful. Raise the capital you will need to achieve the milestones and eliminate the risks required for your next financing round. It also probably makes sense to give yourself some margin as safety because things never go exactly as planned in startup land. Video source: Y Combinator (2014)

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63,294 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Here's how the GRAF sees the TWO storms hitting the DC region on Tuesday-Wednesday this week. -Has snow starting 12-1pm in DC. -Note temperatures...likely above freezing at onset. We will "lose" some snow initially to ground melt. Recall the January storm, we had VERY cold temperatures leading up to it. Not quite this time. -I still worry the northern end of the I-81 corridor (Winchester up to Hagerstown zone) could underperform due to lighter precip and "mountain dry slotting" you can see this model, like the HRRR, trying to pick up on that a bit. -Snow exits around/after midnight in immediate DC area. We're then dry most of the first half of Wednesday. -Second system approached Wednesday afternoon. This one has much warmer mid-levels, and should be a moderate to heavy rain event for DC. -Cold may lag at the surface west of town. Some freezing rain may mix in, some icing is possible in higher elevations. -Rains will help wash away a lot of Tuesday's snowfall. This snow will NOT last as long as January's did. -Rain exits after midnight, Thursday & Friday are dry.
0:20

Here's how the GRAF sees the TWO storms hitting the DC region on Tuesday-Wednesday this week. -Has snow starting 12-1pm in DC. -Note temperatures...likely above freezing at onset. We will "lose" some snow initially to ground melt. Recall the January storm, we had VERY cold temperatures leading up to it. Not quite this time. -I still worry the northern end of the I-81 corridor (Winchester up to Hagerstown zone) could underperform due to lighter precip and "mountain dry slotting" you can see this model, like the HRRR, trying to pick up on that a bit. -Snow exits around/after midnight in immediate DC area. We're then dry most of the first half of Wednesday. -Second system approached Wednesday afternoon. This one has much warmer mid-levels, and should be a moderate to heavy rain event for DC. -Cold may lag at the surface west of town. Some freezing rain may mix in, some icing is possible in higher elevations. -Rains will help wash away a lot of Tuesday's snowfall. This snow will NOT last as long as January's did. -Rain exits after midnight, Thursday & Friday are dry.

Mike Thomas

40,971 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr