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A Bitcoin school exists in rural Bugiri that should not be possible. 100+ children. 4 classroom blocks. 22 staff. Paid for almost entirely in sats. The story starts with 34 strangers and a single plane ticket in May 2023. I opened a Geyser ⚡️ campaign asking 5.9M sats for...

96,376 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Debunking the Flat Bitcoin Theory 🧵 In the early days of Bitcoin (2009-2014) there was a massive amount of experimentation and innovation on bitcoin The first NFTs and cryptoart started on Bitcoin The first memecoins started on Bitcoin The first stablecoins and real world assets started on Bitcoin The first dapps started on Bitcoin The first DEX started on Bitcoin The first on-chain governance started on Bitcoin The first crypto degens were playing Satoshi Dice on Bitcoin But then the OP_RETURN wars happened and people like Luke Dashjr vilified innovation and scared builders away resulting in a long period of stagnation (2015-2023) This period of stagnation gave birth to the Flat Bitcoin Theory which infected the minds of nearly everyone The Flat Bitcoin Theory is a belief held by "Flat Bitcoiners" who think that Bitcoin is a boring blockchain that is not capable of the innovative use cases that we see on alt L1s like Ethereum or Solana But thankfully in January 2023 Casey burst onto the scene with the ordinals protocol and one by one people have been waking up from this lie and realizing that Bitcoin is actually multidimensional and capable of everything you could possibly imagine and more Since then Bitcoin has experienced a renaissance of innovation with a new set of builders picking up where the set of OG builders left off Jeremy Lin | 🔄 DotSwap (On Nexus) from DOTSWAP•DOTSWAP - Official has defied all FUD and delivered a trustless liquidity pool style experience on Bitcoin L1 for Runes with zero MEV Stan from Sats Terminal has built an advanced order routing and aggregation engine for Runes trading on Bitcoin L1 Scott 🟠 from radFi has revived the Runes trenches with a token launchpad on Bitcoin L1 that thousands of people use every day Robin from Liquidium | Bitcoin Loans built a Runes and Ordinals lending protocol that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars of volume which proves that DeFi can thrive on Bitcoin L1 domo and Binari from BRC 2.0 and Tagga from Alkanes have been relentlessly pursing a vision for general purpose smart contracts on Bitcoin L1 TO from Pizza Pets built a fully on-chain multiplayer game directly on Bitcoin L1 Ken Liao from built a Bitcoin wallet for interacting with Bitcoin L1 dapps that is so sleek that it puts Ethereum's flagship wallet MetaMask to shame danny huuep from OnChainMonkey® pioneered a new way to store an entire 10K PFP collection on Bitcoin for only $23 that is now widely adopted by hundreds of other Ordinals collections SergeSats has formed the Bitcoin Art Society to preserve Bitcoin's on-chain culture for future generation has dedicated months of his life to ensuring that once a year there is a place where bitcoin builders can gather to celebrate experimentation on bitcoin at Bitcoin Summit Massive decentralized communities like the $DOG Army and Bitcoin Puppets have rallied together to support all of these innovations and champion the Bitcoin ecosystem Do not ever let anyone tell you that Bitcoin is not capable of something or that you must only use Bitcoin in a certain way The Bitcoin network is more secure and robust longterm when it is winning at developer mindshare and blocks are filled with a diverse set of on-chain activity It is up to us, the Ordinals, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem to be stewards of this technology now so go build the most badass applications possible and never stop fighting for innovation on Bitcoin!

Leonidas 🧡 $DOG

62,956 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

In 2014 a 19-year-old MIT student raised $500,000 and gave every undergraduate on campus $100 in Bitcoin. Most of them spent it on sushi. That sushi cost them $44 million. — Jeremy Rubin was a sophomore studying computer science when he got into a legal battle with the New Jersey attorney general who called him a "hardcore hardened cyber criminal". — His crime was building a Bitcoin mining program that won an innovation award at a hackathon. — He was eventually cleared but what stuck with him was that even his friends at MIT had never heard of Bitcoin. — He raised $500,000 from alumni and Bitcoin enthusiasts and in October 2014 gave every undergraduate student at MIT $100 worth of Bitcoin about a third of a coin at $336 per $BTC. — 3,108 students signed up — The experiment became the first academic study on Bitcoin adoption ever conducted. — One in ten students cashed out within two weeks. — One in four had sold by 2017 — The ones who forgot about it entirely did the best. — The most common way students spent their Bitcoin was at a single sushi restaurant called Thelonious Monkfish. — The only place on campus accepting Bitcoin at the time. — One student estimated that half the people he knew spent their entire $100 on fish. — One student spent hers on two sushi dinners and forgot the rest existed. — In 2021 she found her wallet still sitting untouched. — Her $100 of Bitcoin was worth $13,000. — If every single student had done nothing the entire $500,000 experiment would be worth ove $110 million today — One student told reporters "Most of us thought it was a bit of a joke" The smartest students at the most prestigious engineering university on earth were given free Bitcoin in 2014 and spent it on sushi. The ones who forgot they had it became the winners. Sometimes the best investment strategy is just losing your password for a few years.

Aisar

68,015 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”

Arjun Khemani

23,056 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

A central bank. And Bitcoin. My speech at The Bitcoin Conference 2026 in Las Vegas on 28 April 2026. Video and text; the slide link is below: Today, I want to talk about a strange combination: A central bank. And Bitcoin. Most people do not put these two things together. I do. In monetary policy, a central bank must be conservative. But it must think ahead. When I became Governor of the Czech National Bank in mid-2022, inflation in my country was close to 20 percent. Twenty percent. It was a serious moment. When I took office, I said we would bring inflation back to 2 percent within two years. And we did. Not with magic. With discipline. I said this clearly: Even before covid, money was too cheap for too long. For too long, the system promoted borrowing. For too long, the currency was weakened. We changed that. We kept policy tighter for longer. We supported saving. And the koruna became strong. That, for me, is conservative monetary policy. Our rule is simple: stay hawkish forever. We also manage very large foreign exchange reserves. Very large. We manage about 180 billion dollars in reserves. That is about 44 percent of GDP. Relative to the size of our economy, our reserves are among the largest in the world. So we have to build the right portfolio for the future. Here, you can see the long-term risk and return. It is based on Czech koruna data, the currency in which our books are kept. Bonds are at the low end. Low risk. Low return. Stocks and gold can offer higher returns. But they also bring higher risk. The next point is the Czech National Bank’s portfolio. Over the past four years, we increased the share of equities from 15 to 26 percent. We also increased the share of gold from almost zero to 6 percent. We built a diversified portfolio. A higher expected return than before. Lower risk than an all-stock portfolio. And even lower risk than an all-bond portfolio. But then came the next question. Can we do more? Can we build an even stronger portfolio for the future This is where Bitcoin comes in. The first time I used Bitcoin, I bought a coffee in Prague about ten years ago. Today, that coffee comes to about 350 dollars. It was the most expensive coffee of my life. Bitcoin has had very high returns. But honestly, it looks risky. It is much more volatile than other assets. One day, its price may be much higher. Or it could go to zero. Yes, zero. And that is true for other assets too. A stock can go to zero. Even a bond can fail. That is why it is not wise to bet on just one asset. We have to think about the whole portfolio. The next point on the chart is what we found in our new analysis. This is our model portfolio with 1 percent in Bitcoin. And here comes the interesting part. With 1 percent in Bitcoin, the expected return goes up. And the overall risk stays about the same. That is what our new study shows. Why? Because Bitcoin has low long-term correlation with many traditional assets. It does not move in the same way. And that matters. When you add an asset like this, the whole portfolio can work better. The return can go up. And the risk can stay about the same. That is diversification. Over the long term, Bitcoin can provide returns that are not closely linked to other assets. In some ways, it is similar to venture capital. But it is much more liquid. So we started a separate test portfolio with Bitcoin. A test portfolio. Not a revolution. Not a political statement. A test. We will run it for two years. Then we will publish the results. Then we will decide what comes next. Be conservative in monetary policy. Be innovative in how we work. This is the future. Česká národní banka

Aleš Michl

68,592 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

So, does it matter that Bitcoin seems to be moving away from its cypherpunk roots? Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin Treasuries have taken BTC mainstream. So I asked Saifedean Ammous this very question. His answer might surprise you... 👀👇 "If you have very strong feelings about how people should and shouldn't use Bitcoin, you're in for a rough time." "To be honest, a lot of people project too much onto Bitcoin. Ultimately, it's just a bunch of software and anybody can use it in any way they want. Initially, it's a small subset of people that use it and then they start projecting their values onto it. And then over time, they expect it to continue to abide by that," Ammous said. "If it's a successful technology, it's going to be used by everybody. It's going to be used by small businesses, large businesses, governments, individuals. It's money. Everybody uses money. There are 8.5 billion people on Earth, they all use money and they're all going to continue to use money. And Bitcoin is just the best money." Ultimately, the protocol itself is immune to the financial instruments that TradFi has concocted. If people want to lend against their BTC or create complex financial products, that does not actually impact the underlying network. "The way that the protocol works is that it's completely blind to what you're doing with your coins on the Bitcoin blockchain there is no paper Bitcoin there's no such thing as paper Bitcoin there's only 21 million Bitcoin and every node makes sure of that every 10 minutes and then if somebody who has some of these Bitcoin on their private key decides to sell obligations or financial liabilities referring to that Bitcoin under any condition, that's their choice. It's outside of Bitcoin and it's outside of the realm of other Bitcoin users being able to say this is right or wrong and this should happen or shouldn't happen. People are going to do whatever they want with the Bitcoin, including selling access to it or exposure to it in all kinds of different ways. And if you don't like it, you don't buy it, you can stack your own Bitcoin." You can find the full interview for Cointelegraph in the 🧵. If you enjoyed this content, please like 🧡, retweet 🔁 and follow me 👋!

Gareth Jenkinson

34,417 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten