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A cheat code I wish I knew at 18: The 4 Types of Luck (an animated visualization) In 1978, a neurologist named Dr. James Austin published a book entitled Chase, Chance, & Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty. In it, he proposed that there are 4 types of luck:...

483,498 views • 2 years ago •via X (Twitter)

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Sahil Bloom's profile picture
Sahil Bloom2 years ago

The Luck Razor (visualized)

Sahil Bloom's profile picture
Sahil Bloom2 years ago

For those who have asked, the animated visualization was done by Keyframe.

Anthony Vicino's profile picture
Anthony Vicino2 years ago

I am absolutely obsessed with the idea of Luck and how we can manipulate it to become more successful.. This is a fantastic primer, Sahil.

Sapienism | Masculinity & Medicine's profile picture
Sapienism | Masculinity & Medicine2 years ago

To gain access to opportunities that can make you successful: You first need to take risks, and get used to taking them all the time. Then, opportunities will flow in like clockwork.

Espen Opdahl's profile picture
Espen Opdahl2 years ago

Great explanation! I always tell people I don't believe in luck because you put yourself in a position of being lucky (luck surface area), or that you've become a person that attracts opportunity (uniqueness luck). Love this

Nik Sharma's profile picture
Nik Sharma2 years ago

This is so good

Ben Heller's profile picture
Ben Heller2 years ago

Baseball players always talk about how you have to get lucky to make it to MLB. I think this is a better framework for how big leaguers actually got “lucky”. Types 2-4 are clear as day among the top 0.01%. I’d imagine the same is true in other top performers as well

Ilia Karelin's profile picture
Ilia Karelin2 years ago

I think Types 2 & 3 can be combined into one. Because as you do things, you gain experience but you also gain awareness. And those also create your unique point of view. Interesting thought, Sahil!

Martins Lasmanis's profile picture
Martins Lasmanis2 years ago

The video visualization extremely well explains the concept. Love it.

Mavis's profile picture
Mavis2 years ago

Ali Abdaal made a great point about how luck can be increased by increasing your surface area of exposure. That means putting in the time and effort in trying to achieve your goals. “The harder I worked, the luckier I got” Pitbull.

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A cheat code I wish I knew at 22: The 4 Types of Luck In 1978, a neurologist named Dr. James Austin published a book entitled Chase, Chance, & Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty. In it, he proposed that there are 4 types of luck: (1) Blind Luck (2) Luck from Motion (3) Luck from Awareness (4) Luck from Uniqueness Here's what they are: Type 1: Blind Luck Completely out of your control: • Where you are born • Who you are born to • Base circumstances of your life • "Acts of God" These are the truly random occurrences of the universe. Type 2: Luck from Motion You’re creating motion and collisions through hustle and energy that you are inserting into an ecosystem. You increase your luck surface area through simple movement. The increase in collisions opens you up to more lucky events. Type 3: Luck from Awareness Depth of understanding within a given arena allows you to become very good at positioning yourself for lucky breaks. Naval says: "You become very good at spotting luck." You can “spot luck” from a mile away because of your knowledge and experience. Type 4: Luck from Uniqueness Your unique set of attributes attracts specific luck to you. “[This type] favors those with distinctive, if not eccentric hobbies, personal lifestyles, and motor behaviors.” - Dr. James Austin Type 4 Luck actually seeks you out. The Stages of Luck I personally think of Types 1-3 as coming in stages as you grow up: • Type 1 dictates your early years • Type 2 as you hustle in your 20 • Type 3 as you gain experience in your 30s+ Type 4 is unique—it’s dislocated from age. Always remember the Luck Razor: When choosing between two paths, choose the path that has a larger LUCK SURFACE AREA. Your actions put you in a position where luck is more likely to strike. It’s hard to get lucky watching TV at home—it’s easy to get lucky when you’re engaging and learning. There are lots of simple ways to increase your luck surface area: • Talk to more new people • Send more cold emails • Write/share in public • Participate in digital communities • Spend time in rooms where you feel like the dumb one To recap the 4 types of luck: • Type 1: Blind Luck • Type 2: Luck from Motion • Type 3: Luck from Awareness • Type 4: Luck from Uniqueness If you enjoyed this and learned something new, follow me Sahil Bloom for more in the future!

Sahil Bloom

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Peter Thiel on the importance of having a definite view of the future “We’re always focused on very short time horizons because you have to figure out a way to get through the next month, the next quarter, how you get some customers. But it’s always worth thinking ahead 5-10 years. Why will this be a really valuable business in 5-10 years? How’s the competitive landscape going to develop? How’s the technology going to develop? How’s the world going to develop?” These are hard questions to answer, but Thiel thinks the great entrepreneurs always have some perspective on it. It might be wrong, but it’s well-reasoned. “A bad plan is always better than no plan. So have a plan. You can always change it. But don’t just pretend that you have no clue about what’s going to happen and that everything about the future is random. If you say that everything is random and out of your control, that’s the way that you set yourself up for failure… I do think we exaggerate the role of luck in our future.” The following is a related passage from Thiel’s book Zero to One: “From the Renaissance and the Enlightenment to the mid-20th century, luck was something to be mastered, dominated, and controlled; everyone agreed that you should do what you could, not focus on what you couldn’t. Ralph Waldo Emerson captured this ethos when he wrote: “Shallow men believe in luck, believe in circumstances . . . Strong men believe in cause and effect.” In 1912, after he became the first explorer to reach the South Pole, Roald Amundsen wrote: “Victory awaits him who has everything in order—luck, people call it.” No one pretended that misfortune didn’t exist, but prior generations believed in making their own luck by working hard.” Video source: Forbes (2014)

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