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A good example of predictive AI from the Waymo Driver: in a split second, it predicted an initial crash of human-driven cars in the next lane, anticipated a secondary collision, and proactively shifted lanes — all while managing its distance from the vehicles around it.

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Dmitri Dolgov

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72,320 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Waymo car failing to coordinate w/ another Waymo (credits in the comment). Interesting to see a toy example from my grant applications play out in the real world. Two cars playing a best-response to a human driver model are not mutually compatible, multi-agent challenges are real

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Speed matters. A Waymo vehicle was driving in a 25mph zone in LA when an oncoming car swerved into our lane while speeding up to over 70mph… 3x the speed means 9x the destructive energy. Good to see the Waymo Driver react early and safely to make room.
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Speed matters. A Waymo vehicle was driving in a 25mph zone in LA when an oncoming car swerved into our lane while speeding up to over 70mph… 3x the speed means 9x the destructive energy. Good to see the Waymo Driver react early and safely to make room.

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Suppose two cars are traveling on an expressway at 100 km/h with a 50-meter gap. If the front car slams on its brakes, it takes about 3.5 seconds and nearly 50 meters to stop. If the driver behind does nothing, a collision occurs in exactly 3.5 seconds. This gives the rear driver a 3.5-second window to avoid a crash. For an alert driver, 1 second is reaction time, leaving 2.5 seconds to brake and stop safely. Now, consider the same 50-meter gap, but the front car is reversing at 10 km/h. For the car approaching from behind at 100 km/h, the closing speed skyrockets to 110 km/h, slashing the time before collision to just 1.6 seconds. In reality, it is even worse: because drivers never expect a vehicle to reverse on an expressway, their brains freeze. Reaction time jumps from 1 second to 2, 3, or more. At high speeds, drivers often crash before even realizing they need to brake. That's why reversing on an expressway is hundred times more dangerous than a sudden braking. A maneuver that feels slow to the reversing driver creates an unexpectedly violent closing speed for those behind, leaving virtually no time to react. In the video, a family of seven missed their exit on the Dehradun expressway to Haridwar. They reversed, were struck from behind, and four of them died.

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WOW v14.3.2 is very decisive and is able to execute with great confidence. Big fan. That said, in my first drive it messed up *spectacularly* twice in <15 miles of suburban driving. In one instance, it swerved out of its through lane of traffic into a lane that was ending, right as it was ending. It was not trying to overtake any vehicles, it just swerved over violently. ugh The other, in the video below, it did not consider that the left lane was turn-only, and tried to use it overtake other vehicles while their light was red. (this intersection begins with left turn green and through-lanes red) It is still very slow to merge into the proper lane in time for a turn, and ended up cutting off a large truck to make its turn. Could it have completed its maneuvers and continued without intervention? Yes. Would it be safe or legal to do so? No. Plenty of work left to do on FSD.

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