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a Jane Street engineer on why outperformance creates fragility in infrastructure, but also in strategies. this is exactly what happens when traders have a few good months. they size up, assume the returns are baseline, and get destroyed by a normal drawdown. your worst month should be what you... show more

Goshawk Trades

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22,432 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Opposition for oppositions sake can only get you so far - especially when you end up opposing your own record. The Conservatives are saying one thing now, but just a few months ago they were doing another. My speech at business questions today, on why I'm confused about what exactly the Tories believe in nowadays 👇🏻

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Opposition for oppositions sake can only get you so far - especially when you end up opposing your own record. The Conservatives are saying one thing now, but just a few months ago they were doing another. My speech at business questions today, on why I'm confused about what exactly the Tories believe in nowadays 👇🏻

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“They are always checking you and putting you in what they call “your right place”. Your right place should be there, in a place that is broken, dependent. Sometimes they show mercy, they have pity on you and lift you up just a little, so that you don’t die, but you don’t heal either. You are always hospitalized, you come out limping, they let you stagger around for a while, and when you begin to lift your head up, they take you back to the hospital. That is exactly how Africa is. Why would you accept it. Why don’t you put in place your own way of working, and achieve what you want? What is stopping us? ” President Kagame | #Umushyikirano2026

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🚨WHAT?! Democrats in Maryland just pushed a bill requiring “appropriate size tampons” in MEN’S restrooms across state buildings. Yes, you read that correctly. And they couldn’t even explain what “appropriate size” means. This is what happens when Democrats are in charge.

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The explosive returns traders like Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 and Martin Luk can put up don't come for free. The same volatility that drives those gains also produces drawdowns most people can't stomach. But that's a feature, not a bug. "Even the most successful traders/investors are gonna be in a drawdown most of the time. Even this year, even though I'm up at least 500%...I've spent at least half of the year in a drawdown, at least. So expecting to be peak equity all the time, its just not gonna happen. you're gonna spend most of your time in a drawdown even on a really good year. That's just how it works. You just need to realize it, and you need to accept it. Being in a drawdown is not an anomaly, its normal. Now the question is how big of a drawdown are you gonna be in...I try to limit my drawdowns to 10-15%, but sometimes they become more severe than that. I think I've had two 25-30% drawdowns this year. So drawdowns, its the nature of the game, if you wanna have big returns you are gonna have drawdowns, cause if you don't have drawdowns means you don't take any risk, and if you don't take any risk, you wont have any returns..." - Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦

The explosive returns traders like Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 and Martin Luk can put up don't come for free. The same volatility that drives those gains also produces drawdowns most people can't stomach. But that's a feature, not a bug. "Even the most successful traders/investors are gonna be in a drawdown most of the time. Even this year, even though I'm up at least 500%...I've spent at least half of the year in a drawdown, at least. So expecting to be peak equity all the time, its just not gonna happen. you're gonna spend most of your time in a drawdown even on a really good year. That's just how it works. You just need to realize it, and you need to accept it. Being in a drawdown is not an anomaly, its normal. Now the question is how big of a drawdown are you gonna be in...I try to limit my drawdowns to 10-15%, but sometimes they become more severe than that. I think I've had two 25-30% drawdowns this year. So drawdowns, its the nature of the game, if you wanna have big returns you are gonna have drawdowns, cause if you don't have drawdowns means you don't take any risk, and if you don't take any risk, you wont have any returns..." - Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦

Charlie M

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Qullamaggie on Why You Shouldn’t Take Low Quality Trades With Smaller Size “One more thing that’s really important: why you shouldn’t size down. You know, just to trade some good setup on an illiquid stock or a stock that is too illiquid for your account size. What you do is condition your brain to trade with smaller positions and smaller risk numbers. And when you get a good opportunity, like a big opportunity on a more liquid stock, you won’t have the confidence to take the correct size because you’ve spent a bunch of time conditioning your brain to trade smaller for no reason other reason than you can sit on your two hands and wait for a more liquid opportunity. You need to get out of the game and out of this mentality. You have to trade everything all the time; that’s not how trading works. Yes, in the past 12 months, it has worked like that, but once this main trend ends, you don’t know when it will end. It is going to end, and there are going to be slimmer opportunities.”

Qullamaggie on Why You Shouldn’t Take Low Quality Trades With Smaller Size “One more thing that’s really important: why you shouldn’t size down. You know, just to trade some good setup on an illiquid stock or a stock that is too illiquid for your account size. What you do is condition your brain to trade with smaller positions and smaller risk numbers. And when you get a good opportunity, like a big opportunity on a more liquid stock, you won’t have the confidence to take the correct size because you’ve spent a bunch of time conditioning your brain to trade smaller for no reason other reason than you can sit on your two hands and wait for a more liquid opportunity. You need to get out of the game and out of this mentality. You have to trade everything all the time; that’s not how trading works. Yes, in the past 12 months, it has worked like that, but once this main trend ends, you don’t know when it will end. It is going to end, and there are going to be slimmer opportunities.”

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19,832 views • 7 months ago

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this is exactly what a man should be like in your life, bigger and a loser for you only #singlesinferno5

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this is exactly what a man should be like in your life, bigger and a loser for you only #singlesinferno5

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Qullamaggie on Average Drawdown Size in Trading “Being in a drawdown is the normal. It’s not an anomaly—it’s just normal. Now the question is, how big of a drawdown are you gonna be in? Obviously, you should, like… I try to limit my drawdowns to ten to fifteen percent, but, uh, you know, sometimes they become more severe than that. I think I’ve had two thirty-percent drawdowns this year—twenty-five, thirty. So drawdowns, you know, it’s the nature of the game. If you wanna have big returns, you are gonna have drawdowns. Because if you don’t have drawdowns, it means you don’t take any risk. And if you don’t take any risk, you won’t have any returns. Most of my drawdowns is less than fifteen percent. Exactly—if you don’t have any drawdowns, if you have great returns, you don’t have any drawdowns, you’re made off.”

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your backtest showed profit. so did mine then I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on that same strategy and found out we'd both read exactly one path out of 10,000 possible ones same 112 trades. reshuffled 10,000 times > worst outcome: -31% drawdown, 14 months underwater > 5th percentile: -18% max drawdown > median: +19% annual return > 95th percentile: +28% return strategy has a real edge but 1 in 20 traders running it hits a path that looks like failure for over a year most quit before month 14. blame the strategy, market, signals wasn't any of that here's a number that actually ends accounts: probability of ruin at 2% risk per trade: 0.3% bump to 3%: 4.1% 13x more likely to blow up from changing one input - not worse entries, not worse signals, just 1% more size most "failed" systems weren't failing. they were good systems at wrong size on a bad sequence the trader never knew existed one Monte Carlo run would've told them: this drawdown is normal, keep trading Bookmark this info most traders will never run it. they'll read the backtest once, start live, hit month 4, and wonder why their "proven" system broke it didn't break. they just never knew what they were holding

your backtest showed profit. so did mine then I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on that same strategy and found out we'd both read exactly one path out of 10,000 possible ones same 112 trades. reshuffled 10,000 times > worst outcome: -31% drawdown, 14 months underwater > 5th percentile: -18% max drawdown > median: +19% annual return > 95th percentile: +28% return strategy has a real edge but 1 in 20 traders running it hits a path that looks like failure for over a year most quit before month 14. blame the strategy, market, signals wasn't any of that here's a number that actually ends accounts: probability of ruin at 2% risk per trade: 0.3% bump to 3%: 4.1% 13x more likely to blow up from changing one input - not worse entries, not worse signals, just 1% more size most "failed" systems weren't failing. they were good systems at wrong size on a bad sequence the trader never knew existed one Monte Carlo run would've told them: this drawdown is normal, keep trading Bookmark this info most traders will never run it. they'll read the backtest once, start live, hit month 4, and wonder why their "proven" system broke it didn't break. they just never knew what they were holding

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this #baltimorebridge incident is so heartbreaking 💔 i don't wanna assume the worst, but... why are there so many angles?? and why does every media outlet make it clear there are EXACTLY 6 people missing??? THAT BOAT SHOULD HAVE NOT BEEN THERE!!! And what is in those crates..

Malek_04 🔴

435,656 views • 2 years ago

Stop wearing sunglasses. You have 23 aromatic amino acids and the majority of them are at the back of your eye in your retina. You need the natural light to hit these in order to make chemicals in your body that cannot be made any other way. When you get cataracts, they remove your lens and put a synthetic one in and guess what happens down the line? You get a detached retina. Put the sunglasses in the bin but hang on to the mirrored ones for wearing at night, to protect your eyes when driving, from the LED lights. They are going to make you blind … and that is why they are planning on banning sunglasses in the car! Or Contact me; vitalityregained@protonmail.com

Stop wearing sunglasses. You have 23 aromatic amino acids and the majority of them are at the back of your eye in your retina. You need the natural light to hit these in order to make chemicals in your body that cannot be made any other way. When you get cataracts, they remove your lens and put a synthetic one in and guess what happens down the line? You get a detached retina. Put the sunglasses in the bin but hang on to the mirrored ones for wearing at night, to protect your eyes when driving, from the LED lights. They are going to make you blind … and that is why they are planning on banning sunglasses in the car! Or Contact me; [email protected]

Kate Shemirani

125,936 views • 10 months ago

Qullamaggie on Why You Are Always in a Drawdown “You're never gonna sell everything at the top. Just get that thought out of your head. You're gonna be in a drawdown probably 99% of the time. Remember that. You can make 500% in a year and be in a drawdown 95% of the time. That's just how it works. If anyone's gonna tell you otherwise, they're a liar and probably trying to sell you something. Look at stuff like NFLX over the past 10 years or AMZN. One of the best performing stocks over 10 years. You can see it spent like, what, 2/3 of the time in a drawdown. Now it's in a drawdown again. Where this ends, who knows. That's just how it works. No matter how good or bad your returns are, you're gonna spend most of the time in a drawdown. No matter what. Only time you're not gonna do that, if you’re a day trader or scalper, one of these guys that make 50 bucks per day and they're super happy about it. They make like 500 trades, end up with 50 bucks.”

Qullamaggie on Why You Are Always in a Drawdown “You're never gonna sell everything at the top. Just get that thought out of your head. You're gonna be in a drawdown probably 99% of the time. Remember that. You can make 500% in a year and be in a drawdown 95% of the time. That's just how it works. If anyone's gonna tell you otherwise, they're a liar and probably trying to sell you something. Look at stuff like NFLX over the past 10 years or AMZN. One of the best performing stocks over 10 years. You can see it spent like, what, 2/3 of the time in a drawdown. Now it's in a drawdown again. Where this ends, who knows. That's just how it works. No matter how good or bad your returns are, you're gonna spend most of the time in a drawdown. No matter what. Only time you're not gonna do that, if you’re a day trader or scalper, one of these guys that make 50 bucks per day and they're super happy about it. They make like 500 trades, end up with 50 bucks.”

Lone

13,508 views • 1 year ago

Qullamaggie on Success in Trading Is About Getting Back Up, Not How Many Times You Fall “Success in trading it’s not about how many times you fall — it’s about how many times you get up. That’s what separates the successful traders from the not successful You should always try to learn from your mistakes. If you froze yesterday, what’s your plan of not freezing again? What are you gonna do different if that scenario happens again so you don’t freeze. That’s exactly what you should be focusing on.”

Qullamaggie on Success in Trading Is About Getting Back Up, Not How Many Times You Fall “Success in trading it’s not about how many times you fall — it’s about how many times you get up. That’s what separates the successful traders from the not successful You should always try to learn from your mistakes. If you froze yesterday, what’s your plan of not freezing again? What are you gonna do different if that scenario happens again so you don’t freeze. That’s exactly what you should be focusing on.”

Lone

13,341 views • 1 month ago

"I have people talking about hang in there, don't quit but they ain't been in your shoes. They say they have but they don't know what you going through.. What I will ask you though, is can you give me one more day? I'm not asking you for a week, I'm not asking for a month..."

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"I have people talking about hang in there, don't quit but they ain't been in your shoes. They say they have but they don't know what you going through.. What I will ask you though, is can you give me one more day? I'm not asking you for a week, I'm not asking for a month..."

find a reaction

39,844 views • 3 years ago