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A key point from this interview: the "benefit" of tariffs, if it exists, is delayed. You don't flip a switch and get a plant tomorrow. You wait years. It also follows that a tariff you don’t trust to outlast a mood swing won’t change where companies build at all.

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Justin Wolfers

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38,521 views • 9 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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The point of a tariff is to make firms build factories at home. But if it's on Monday, off Tuesday, back on Wednesday, no one pours concrete. Chaotic tariffs give you all of the cost and almost none of the benefit.⁣ ⁣
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The fundamental problem of Trump's tariffs remains the same as it ever was: You can't persuade anyone to build a new factory with a tariff that'll change before the concrete sets. So we'll get all the costs of tariffs, and none of the benefits.
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