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A man worth $1.8 billion just shared his portfolio. It's 98% risky assets. Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, reveals how he invests his own money. 98% risky. 95% equities. Barely any diversification. It's almost all big tech: Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, plus riskier names like Oracle. As he...

28,207 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Today I walk with Zach Lloyd (Zach Lloyd), founder and CEO of Warp (Warp). Zach is a former Principal Engineer at Google (Google), where he led the Google Sheets team, scaled his first startup, SelfMade, to 150 employees before it fell apart, and raised over $73 million for Warp from Sequoia (Sequoia Capital) and Google Ventures (GV), and now he's betting the whole company on AI. He gets into the AI feature Warp built before Claude Code (Claude) and ChatGPT (ChatGPT) existed, why not going harder at it is one of his biggest regrets as a founder, and what it's like having Marc Benioff (Marc Benioff) as his cousin. We get into: -The AI feature Warp shipped before ChatGPT even existed, and why building something like Claude Code six months early still turned into one of his biggest regrets -His first startup, SelfMade, scaling to 150 employees and multiple millions in revenue without ever finding real product-market fit -Why he calls hiring "just sales," and why he'd rather hand over equity than compete on salary -Growing up with Marc Benioff as his cousin, and watching a family member build one of software's biggest companies -Why he barely opens a spreadsheet anymore, and which AI-era tools he thinks actually survive So much more! Timestamps (00:00) Trailer (00:59) Zach Lloyd, Founder & CEO, Warp (01:03) Grandfather Lloyd K Lloyd, San Francisco's original salesman (04:42) Marc Benioff is his cousin (21:33) The humility lesson from Google Sheets' original creator (27:07) SelfMade: 150 employees, still not a real business (34:04) Why hiring is really just sales (39:32) Nearing a million terminal users (41:18) Building AI before Claude Code and Codex existed (42:52) Only going halfway in on AI (1:03:09) Why he barely opens a spreadsheet anymore (1:10:10) Warp is automating 30% of its own engineering work (1:11:12) Building automated cloud factories (1:14:49) Almost naming the company Cursor (1:15:48) Never living on Saint Mark's again

luba yudasina

25,695 views • 27 days ago

ONE OF ANTHROPIC'S CODERS SHARED HIS "SECOND BRAIN" HE'S BEEN BUILDING FOR 3 MONTHS. I WASN'T READY FOR WHAT I SAW he didn't post this on twitter. didn't make a thread. didn't record a youtube video. just showed me on a call and said "look what i've got" when i opened it - 2000+ notes. all connected to each other. looked like a map of the universe and at the center of it all - one file. CLAUDE.md it's not a prompt. it's a full profile of a person. who he is. how he thinks. what he's working on. where he gets stuck. how he wants the AI to talk to him. even his weaknesses claude reads this file first. every time. automatically. never starts a conversation from zero i asked him "so what did this change?" he said: "i stopped spending time explaining. now i spend time thinking" but that's just the beginning. every project has its own folder. clean structure. when he works on something - claude only sees that project. not the entire chaos anything he does more than once is saved as a skill. one line and claude does it his way and at 7am every day claude walks through the entire vault on its own. finds new stuff. links it. cleans what's stale. writes him 3 lines: what changed overnight he wakes up and the brain already worked and here's what got me the most: it's all just text files. no cloud. no subscription. no dependency on one service. if a better model drops tomorrow he just points it at the same folder he basically uploaded himself into a file system. and now AI doesn't guess who he is. AI knows most people use claude like google with manners. this guy built himself an external memory that grows every day full breakdown in the video tomorrow i'll show how i set this up myself in one evening. if you don't follow - you won't see it

kai

47,527 views • 2 months ago

PROOF THAT AI IS A PONZI SCHEME (and why it's the reason for Bitcoin's crash): Nvidia just posted the most insane earnings in tech history. $31.9 billion in profit. $57 billion in revenue. 65% profit jump year-over-year. Stock rallied immediately. Then 18 hours later, it dropped 5%. And when people looked closer at the numbers, they found something absolutely wild... The Unpaid Bills Nobody Talked About: Nvidia's accounts receivable jumped to $33.4 billion. That's up 89% in one year. Translation: $33 billion worth of "sales" that haven't been paid yet. The average wait time for payment went from 46 days to 53 days. That extra week of waiting? $10.4 billion that may never turn into actual cash. They're booking revenue. But customers aren't paying. The Inventory That Shouldn't Exist: Unsold chip inventory surged 32% in three months to $19.8 billion. Meanwhile, Nvidia's CEO keeps saying demand is "insane" and they can't make chips fast enough. If demand is so crazy, why is inventory piling up? Either customers aren't buying with cash, or the demand story is bullshit. The Profit vs Cash Problem: Nvidia reported $19.3 billion in profit. But only generated $14.5 billion in actual cash flow. That's a $4.8 billion gap. Their profit-to-cash conversion is 75%. TSMC and AMD? Over 95%. When profit doesn't turn into cash, something's wrong. Here's Where It Gets Insane: The money is going in circles. And the same dollars are being counted as revenue multiple times. Follow this: - Nvidia gave xAI $2 billion - xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips - Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI - OpenAI committed $50 billion to Microsoft's cloud - Microsoft ordered $100 billion in Nvidia chips for that cloud - Oracle gave OpenAI $300 billion in cloud credits - OpenAI used those credits to order Nvidia chips for Oracle data centers The money goes in a circle. Nvidia → xAI → Nvidia Microsoft → OpenAI → Microsoft → Nvidia Oracle → OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia Everyone books revenue. Nobody's actually paying cash. It's financial engineering disguised as growth. The Smart Money Already Left: Peter Thiel sold his Nvidia stake. SoftBank dumped massive positions. Michael Burry (the guy who called 2008) bought $1.1 billion in put options betting Nvidia crashes. They saw the numbers before everyone else did. And they got out. The Bitcoin Collapse: Bitcoin crashed almost 30% from $126,000 to $89,567. Why does this matter? AI startups use Bitcoin as collateral for loans. If Nvidia's crisis deepens, those startups get margin called. They're forced to sell Bitcoin to cover. Which crashes Bitcoin further. Which triggers more margin calls. Analysts think it could hit $52,000 if this unravels. The MIT Reality Check: OpenAI is valued at $157 billion. MIT released a study saying 95% of AI projects will never be profitable. Not "might struggle." NEVER be profitable. The entire sector is built on inflated expectations. What Happens Next: February 2026: Nvidia's Q4 report shows how many bills are 60+ days overdue. March 2026: Credit agencies start downgrading Nvidia and related companies. April 2026: First earnings restatements hit. The whole thing unwinds. Some experts are calling this a Ponzi scheme. No formal fraud investigation yet. But the structure is there: - Use new investor money to pay old investors - Inflate revenue with circular deals - Book sales before receiving cash - Keep the music playing until someone asks for their money Nvidia executives deny everything. Say it's real growth. Real demand. Real transformation. But the numbers don't lie. $10.4 billion in delayed payments. $19.8 billion in unsold inventory. $4.8 billion profit-to-cash gap. Circular funding loops inflating revenue. This is either the biggest tech transformation in history, or the biggest financial engineering scam since 2008. The next three months will tell us which one it is. What are you betting on?

Ricardo

212,902 views • 10 months ago

Warren Buffett just warned that some of the biggest names in AI might collapse soon. And he said it while revealing he had personally put $31 billion into one of them... Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are now laying out hundreds of billions in capex to stay in the AI race. Buffett called that real money, the kind that was never required back when software was cheap to run. He said these companies have no choice but to keep spending at this scale, because none of them can afford to be the one that blinks. In his own words, they are "playing a game they don't want to play." But the one AI company Buffett actually bought is Google. Berkshire now holds a stake worth more than $31 billion, and for weeks Wall Street assumed the credit belonged to Greg Abel, who took over as CEO in January and ran the position up on his watch. But Buffett admitted he "initiated" the investment. He usually never reveals who makes a call. The Google position already sits behind only Apple and American Express in Berkshire's stock portfolio, and last month Berkshire bought $10 billion of it directly from the company in a private placement. Then he undercut his own trade. When asked why he chose Alphabet over the rest of the Mag 7, Buffett said he does not even like it as much as four or five other businesses Berkshire already owns. He bought it the way he buys anything, as a good company available at a fair price. For years he waved off the Apple question by calling it a consumer company. This time he let the AI label on Google stand, and bought it anyway. Buffett also said the vast majority of what Wall Street pushes, on the order of 90 to 95%, is merchandising, because Wall Street only cares whether it can sell you something. He said he cannot remember the last research report that dug into the actual returns a business earns. Everyone fixates on next quarter instead. He also brought up IBM, which owned its market for decades until a rival offered its customers a better deal and its best business cracked. He brought up A&P, the biggest retailer in America in the 1930s, a company he said held a commanding position that later vanished completely. Buffett was describing the AI leaders as much as anyone: The most dominant company on Earth today is not promised to be dominant in ten years. So the most famous technology skeptic in investing put $31 billion into the AI trade and at the same time warned that the companies leading it are stuck in a war with no exit. What does Buffett see coming that the rest of the market doesn't?

Ricardo

230,573 views • 2 months ago

(about Concerto) 🔮: i'm so proud and happy that 🎭 was there. it's no secret at all that he's very hard working and that he does a lot behind the scenes and a lot of practice. 🔮: and that he's one of the most hardworking people that any of us have ever known but i don't know if you guys realize there's a lot that you don't see. 🔮: it's just really incredible, he is a true testament to seeing somebody reap what they've sown and harvesting all of the plants and fruit and crops that they have sown and planted over months and months and years of hard work and dedication. 🔮: this is just the epitome of everything, it's a combination of everything that he has worked for and done over these years. everything that he has said about how he felt. all of his feelings, thoughts and struggles and everything that he has shared already with everyone and with you guys. 🔮: it's all so real and authentic so i'm really happy and glad to see that he is getting his flowers. he's getting lots of flowers, he's getting his bouquets finally. i as his genmate, as a part of Noctyx, i can only hope to get to that same level. 🔮: it's so inspiring, isn't it? even when i have moments where i feel like i wanna give up or maybe i shouldn't work as hard, it's people like him that really give you that motivation and inspiration to keep going because everything that you do and work for will be worth it in the end. 🔮: i'm gonna make sure on my end that i can catch up to these two. i have a lot of catching up to do, don't i? 🥹🥹🥹💜🧡

luna 🧸

28,811 views • 4 months ago

Stanley Druckenmiller talks about Nvidia and how he "invests then investigates". Couldn’t “spell Nvidia” or didn’t know earnings but jumped in and made 6x in 2 years ($1B+ profit before exiting in 2024). How it went down: ▫️ Early 2022, started seeing Stanford students switch from crypto to AI projects. ▫️His "superstar" analysts brought this to his attention and he asked around Silicon Valley network about AI. ▫️Wanted to make an AI investment and his partner said Nvidia (Druck bought "enough to get hurt or make some money"…forced him to keep track). ▫️ChatGPT launches two weeks later...immediately realizes "enormity" of opportunity and Druck doubles the position. ▫️Listens to a Morgan Stanely macro analyst call and they mention AI bigger than any macro trend...Druck (after experiencing ChatGPT) doubles the position again. He’s fully bought into AI as a “massive massive change”. Pattern recognizing on previous major tech changes in his career, he knows Nvidia will keep running for at least 2-3 years as the rest of market catches up and re-rates. He holds even as his tech-expert investor network sells Nvidia. Expects to hold long-term but sells it all in 2024 at $800 a share (he got in $100-$150). Nvidia quickly runs to $1,400 and he “felt sick”. Says his biggest mistakes are always “selling too soon”, but that’s just part of game of investing for him. “My advantage is not IQ, it’s trigger pulling,” he says.

Trung Phan

214,618 views • 7 months ago

🚨 DOT-COM 2.0 IS ALREADY HERE A $2 trillion AI economy built on the same dollars being passed in a circle I'm not being dramatic. The accounting trick is right there in the filings The scariest part? It's all 100% legal Here's how it works: A tech giant gives an AI startup billions in "investment." The contract forces that startup to spend the exact same money renting servers from… the tech giant. The tech giant then books that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue." Translation: they're paying themselves with their own money and calling it a sale. Look at Microsoft and OpenAI. Microsoft "invested" $13 billion in OpenAI. Most of it never left Microsoft - it was cloud credits that could only be spent on Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those credits to train its models. Microsoft turned around and recorded that exact spend as new cloud revenue That's why OpenAI's annual cloud bill is now $60 BILLION For a company doing only $25 BILLION in actual revenue It's not a customer. It's a recycled funding loop Anthropic runs the exact same script: $2.66 billion paid to AWS in 9 months - basically 100% of everything Anthropic earned. And it gets worse Every time these AI startups raise at a higher valuation, the tech giants mark up their equity and book the paper gain as PROFIT. Q1 2026: ➮ Alphabet reported $62.6B in profit. $28.7B of it (nearly half) was just a paper markup on Anthropic. ➮ Amazon reported $30.3B in profit. $16.8B of it was the same Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon was reporting record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion Because they had to spend $44.2 BILLION in REAL money building data centers Real cash going out. Paper "profits" coming in Now here's where it gets dangerous: ➮ Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI alone ➮ Oracle has 54% of its $553 billion pipeline depending on OpenAI alone Trillions of dollars of "demand" resting on one or two unprofitable startups If this all sounds familiar, it should This is 2001 all over again Back then, Global Crossing and Qwest swapped identical fiber-optic capacity with each other just to book fake sales Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income Global Crossing went bankrupt The only difference between then and now? The dot-com swaps were illegal Today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules That's not a comfort. That's a warning Legal doesn't mean safe. It just means nobody can stop it before it blows up And here's the part most people don't realize: Every 401k, every index fund, every retirement account in America is being forced to buy more of these tech stocks every month. The loop inflates the stock prices The funds chase the prices The chase inflates them further Until the day the music stops and there's no real cash underneath. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. All you need to NOT miss my next call is to keep NOTIFS ON

Reflection🪩

3,874,454 views • 4 months ago