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Gavin Baker: "I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today - that's roughly where it would trade as a public company - but they're mistaken that open source is bad for AI - it just kills the labs' margin and hands it to the infrastructure" this is him explaining...

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J-Cal: Nvidia is taking the gloves off with its open source model. They will own the whole stack. “You will not be able to tell the difference between Jensen Huang's open source LLM and Claude for 95% of your searches, I guarantee you. Now, why has Nvidia and Jensen downplayed their open source model until this moment? Why would he do that? Why would he never bring it up in the All-In interview, never bring it up? Because his top customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) were very concerned, from what I understand, about the fact that Nvidia had made so much progress on their open source model. But suddenly, after OpenAI announced their Jalapeno chips, after Anthropic started making chips, after AMD did successful projects with both of these companies, after Elon said he's going to do his own fab, Nvidia's taking the gloves off. They are going to own the whole stack. You get the hardware from them, and you're going to get a model that's competitive with OpenAI's for free.”
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J-Cal: Nvidia is taking the gloves off with its open source model. They will own the whole stack. “You will not be able to tell the difference between Jensen Huang's open source LLM and Claude for 95% of your searches, I guarantee you. Now, why has Nvidia and Jensen downplayed their open source model until this moment? Why would he do that? Why would he never bring it up in the All-In interview, never bring it up? Because his top customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) were very concerned, from what I understand, about the fact that Nvidia had made so much progress on their open source model. But suddenly, after OpenAI announced their Jalapeno chips, after Anthropic started making chips, after AMD did successful projects with both of these companies, after Elon said he's going to do his own fab, Nvidia's taking the gloves off. They are going to own the whole stack. You get the hardware from them, and you're going to get a model that's competitive with OpenAI's for free.”

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ELON: OPENAI WAS MEANT TO BE NONPROFIT AND OPEN SOURCE He’s explaining the original intent and where it went off course. “I came up with the name OpenAI as an open source and nonprofit organization. I funded OpenAI for the first roughly fifty million dollars. It was intended to be a nonprofit, open source company. Now they’re trying to change that for their own financial benefit into a for profit company that is closed source.” Source: Astro Greek

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Gavin Baker: "which AI company actually survives? Google - already multi-trillion Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta chose open source - the only ones left is xAI and Anthropic - xAI + X will be worth over a trillion" this is him explaining what he actually invests in - and why Taiwan sells sand to Nvidia for $700 that Nvidia sells for $50,000 His words: what to invest in: "we're investing in things that increase the GPU utilization rate - because if you take a GPU from 30% utilized to 60%, you've doubled the output of that AI factory" what not to Invest in: "the models will basically go to zero - the data center is a commodity - energy might be short for a while but is also a commodity - the only thing in the whole stack with real value is the data moat and reinforcement learning" "the GPU has gotten 50 times faster in the last four years - that's a big part of why we're living through this AI revolution" he doesn't rent intelligence - he owns the thing it runs on bookmark & watch - see how below with local agent ↓

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David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”

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Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”
0:55

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

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why is Elon Musk suing OpenAI? the genesis of the lawsuit is OpenAI's "original sin": going from OPEN to CLOSED elon contends that if OAI can legally: -- take donations, build the product, and get tax exemptions as a nonprofit -- THEN create a for-profit subsidiary, raise investor capital, sell secondary, and commercialize the software once it's built ... then this should be the model for EVERY startup going forward. either it should be illegal, or it should be the standard. but OpenAI (and its employees) might have a bigger problem around the corner: the IRS @jason breaks it down: "They took an open source project. They closed it. They raised money. And then within the next two years, on this incredible innovation, they sold $2B and put that in their pockets. That's where I think this whole thing is gonna get really crazy." as Chamath Palihapitiya explains, even if OpenAI decides to open-source its models again, there is a bigger picture problem: "(Open-sourcing) may solve the lawsuit ... but it's opened a can of worms with respect to tax and structuring that's much bigger than just OpenAI."
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why is Elon Musk suing OpenAI? the genesis of the lawsuit is OpenAI's "original sin": going from OPEN to CLOSED elon contends that if OAI can legally: -- take donations, build the product, and get tax exemptions as a nonprofit -- THEN create a for-profit subsidiary, raise investor capital, sell secondary, and commercialize the software once it's built ... then this should be the model for EVERY startup going forward. either it should be illegal, or it should be the standard. but OpenAI (and its employees) might have a bigger problem around the corner: the IRS @jason breaks it down: "They took an open source project. They closed it. They raised money. And then within the next two years, on this incredible innovation, they sold $2B and put that in their pockets. That's where I think this whole thing is gonna get really crazy." as Chamath Palihapitiya explains, even if OpenAI decides to open-source its models again, there is a bigger picture problem: "(Open-sourcing) may solve the lawsuit ... but it's opened a can of worms with respect to tax and structuring that's much bigger than just OpenAI."

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Scott on why conviction in an idea is dangerous as an investor but required as a founder: "From the investor seat, I don't think you want to be in love with an idea. That's a risky thing because you'll find a way to express that by investing and make some compromises on the team because you know this idea is just so good, its time has come. But if the team isn't there, 90% of the time it doesn't work. Then there's a whole thing can you swap out the team? But the whole Founders Fund thesis was always no, you need the founder to run the company. But on the company side, you have to be in love with the idea. It's not that rational to start a company. There's a lot easier, more comfortable ways to make money if that's the goal. So it's got to be about what the company is doing specifically. If you want to actually start a company, it better be something that you're really passionate about, or you think that the problem is really important."

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33,016 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

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Why NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang wouldn’t start a company if he had to do it all over again In this clip from the Acquired podcast, Jensen is asked what company he would start if he was 30 years old again today. His response: “I wouldn’t do it.” “Building a company and building NVIDIA turned out to have been a million times harder than any of us expected it to be. And at the time, if we realized the pain and suffering and just how vulnerable you’re going to feel and the challenges that you’re going to endure, the embarrassment and the shame, and the list of all the things that go wrong—I don’t think anybody would start a company.” Jensen believes that the superpower of entrepreneur is that they don’t know how hard it is. They only ask themselves: How hard can it be? “You have to get yourself to believe that it’s not that hard because it’s way harder than you think. And if—taking all of my knowledge now—I go back, and I said I’m going to endure that whole journey again, I think it’s too much. It is just too much.” And he believes entrepreneurs need to surround themselves with supportive family, friends and colleagues. “You need the unwavering support of the people around you… I’m pretty sure that almost every successful company and entrepreneur that has gone through some difficult challenges had that support system around them.” Video source: Acquired Podcast (2023)

Startup Archive

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We asked Himanshu Tyagi of Sentient if open source AI is going to win. "When a business model goes above a threshold, you want to own it completely." "They have to give return on billions of dollars of capital." "This is the economic play, but there's also strategic play about who I want to support, who I want to destroy." "No single company can have that power."
1:17

We asked Himanshu Tyagi of Sentient if open source AI is going to win. "When a business model goes above a threshold, you want to own it completely." "They have to give return on billions of dollars of capital." "This is the economic play, but there's also strategic play about who I want to support, who I want to destroy." "No single company can have that power."

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18,073 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

JUST IN: Donald Trump says the federal government knows exactly what the drones are up to, says "something strange" is going on. Trump said he decided to cancel his trip to Bedminster. "Our military knows where they took off from. If it's a garage, they can go right into that garage. They know where it came from and where it went." "For some reason, they don't want to comment. And I think they'd be better off saying what it is." "Something strange is going on. For some reason, they don't want to tell the people."
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JUST IN: Donald Trump says the federal government knows exactly what the drones are up to, says "something strange" is going on. Trump said he decided to cancel his trip to Bedminster. "Our military knows where they took off from. If it's a garage, they can go right into that garage. They know where it came from and where it went." "For some reason, they don't want to comment. And I think they'd be better off saying what it is." "Something strange is going on. For some reason, they don't want to tell the people."

Collin Rugg

2,505,308 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."
2:06

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

dnap

110,354 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

Announcing the Open Model Series: a new series on open source AI models, with merve of Hugging Face. Hugging Face is the open model hub: it hosts model weights, datasets, evals, & demo apps, and maintains the open-source libraries (like transformers) used to run and train them. I think of it like GitHub, but for AI models. You can download open models and run them on your own machines. In this series we'll cover what open source and open weight models are, how they work, how to run them yourself, and why they're important. By the way - this video is edited entirely with Claude! I can make a tutorial on how I did it. If there's a question you want answered about open models, leave it in the comments. We will read them all. Episode 1 is out soon.
0:26

Announcing the Open Model Series: a new series on open source AI models, with merve of Hugging Face. Hugging Face is the open model hub: it hosts model weights, datasets, evals, & demo apps, and maintains the open-source libraries (like transformers) used to run and train them. I think of it like GitHub, but for AI models. You can download open models and run them on your own machines. In this series we'll cover what open source and open weight models are, how they work, how to run them yourself, and why they're important. By the way - this video is edited entirely with Claude! I can make a tutorial on how I did it. If there's a question you want answered about open models, leave it in the comments. We will read them all. Episode 1 is out soon.

Harper Carroll

30,069 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Gavin Baker: "I owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla when they were sub-$2 billion, but SpaceX - there's a chance it's the most important company of all time" this is him explaining what Elon sees that Wall Street doesn't - and why SpaceX could become "the British East India Company" his words: "you look at Elon and Anthropic relationship four months ago - and then as the opportunity unfolded, it made sense for them to partner. everyone has a price" "a company like this comes once in your career - thank God I took it, because plenty of people didn't" "over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO - if you wanted to sell, you could have sold every six months for the last 10 years - the supply-demand dynamics are going to be very interesting" bookmark & watch today ↓
32:58

Gavin Baker: "I owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla when they were sub-$2 billion, but SpaceX - there's a chance it's the most important company of all time" this is him explaining what Elon sees that Wall Street doesn't - and why SpaceX could become "the British East India Company" his words: "you look at Elon and Anthropic relationship four months ago - and then as the opportunity unfolded, it made sense for them to partner. everyone has a price" "a company like this comes once in your career - thank God I took it, because plenty of people didn't" "over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO - if you wanted to sell, you could have sold every six months for the last 10 years - the supply-demand dynamics are going to be very interesting" bookmark & watch today ↓

bodila

287,775 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is heating up. Jordi Visser says "Sam Altman in my guess is not going to be the leader of OpenAI at some point soon." "I would be shocked within a year if he is still running OpenAI." "I am not sure it is fun to be in that position right now...Sam Altman seems to have nobody who really likes him, but the product people do like." "In the end, OpenAI has an uphill battle because they made a bad decision. They tried to choose the consumer, Apple side as opposed to the enterprise side." "I just think in the end Anthropic is the winner of that battle."
1:17

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is heating up. Jordi Visser says "Sam Altman in my guess is not going to be the leader of OpenAI at some point soon." "I would be shocked within a year if he is still running OpenAI." "I am not sure it is fun to be in that position right now...Sam Altman seems to have nobody who really likes him, but the product people do like." "In the end, OpenAI has an uphill battle because they made a bad decision. They tried to choose the consumer, Apple side as opposed to the enterprise side." "I just think in the end Anthropic is the winner of that battle."

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

106,184 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

ELON MUSK: "The AI 5 chip which is going to be a great chip. All of Tesla hinges on that chip. That's the chip that going to our next gen self driving cars and it's also essential for Optimus. So that chip program was in bad shape. It wasn't on the path to success and we also had the DOJO program which was also doing okay but not on a path to be competitive with NVIDIA. So I collapsed the two programs into just one program to get everyone focused on the AI5 chip. It's performance per watt is extremely good. It is probably going to be at least 2-3 times better than NVIDIA performance per watt and 10% cost of the NVIDIA chip something like that."
1:52

ELON MUSK: "The AI 5 chip which is going to be a great chip. All of Tesla hinges on that chip. That's the chip that going to our next gen self driving cars and it's also essential for Optimus. So that chip program was in bad shape. It wasn't on the path to success and we also had the DOJO program which was also doing okay but not on a path to be competitive with NVIDIA. So I collapsed the two programs into just one program to get everyone focused on the AI5 chip. It's performance per watt is extremely good. It is probably going to be at least 2-3 times better than NVIDIA performance per watt and 10% cost of the NVIDIA chip something like that."

DogeDesigner

265,257 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten