A message to the people who know what interest rates will do next

💯!

Riches in niches

Nobody knows. But my grocery bill hasn't gone down in years 🛒 When it levels out week over week, that'll tell me more than anyone calling four cuts.

When you think about it, it’s like almost any other business. You are paid for your added value (your “niche knowledge”, etc).

Invest based on addressing inefficiencies in properties because you have niche knowledge. LOVE IT

Lot of people way smarter than me have gone broke on rate bets.

Great stuff man!

Yeah my office would be so much bigger and nicer if I knew this information.

All I see is the collars now

@mrkorangy

It's simple. You can know what the Fed will do. Just look at where the 2-yr Treasury was 6-8 months ago. That determines what the Fed will do. Don't believe me? Look back over the last 26 years since 2000. The only time the Fed deviated from this rule was March 2020.

the 10 year, my friend. that is what moves prices the most in commercial

You're correct. I must have misunderstood what you were saying in reference to the Fed. My statement was about Fed rates, but I suppose that doesn't make sense in the context of CRE investment.

Don, you're more generous than I am! I don't think they go home wondering about anything. They just rinse and repeat for the next show and never look back.

Marry the house, date the rate. 😂😂😂.

I was considering not closing escrow due to interest rates cut, ultimately I move forward with the sale. So happy I did.

always be value adding

What do you see with China and Japan drastically lowering buying US treasury - US treasury in reaction has to price it more attractive to private investors - this geopolitical reaction as one of the reason why Treasury gone up?

Quit trying to call it a while back. Every BRRRR gets penciled at the rate I'm quoted the day I buy, not the one I want at seasoning six months later. If the deal only works at a lower rate I don't buy it.

Interesting that the loudest that say they "know" can never explain Why they have that opinion. Keep up the great posts @realEstateTrent

never seen an industry whose business model hangs in the balance like real estate on reserve bank whimsy

If you don’t have a value add strategy - you’re just at the mercy of what rates do (and rents to a much lesser extent )

Buying on the interest rate coming down is my 1st way to pass on a deal. Brokers don’t pitch this