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A project where many doctors are purchasing. Mainly due to connectivity. 100 sq yards UDS in Shaikpet near Banjara Hills! 2 acres just 96 units. 4 Cr onwards! 2027 possession. The NICHE by Vamsiram Homes, Spacious homes 📍 Shaikpet | 2 Acres | 96 Units (Low Density) 🏙️ 3...

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realhyderabad

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17,735 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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In a recent developer meeting we were discussing single family residential densities and how wide they range. Suburban developments of 4 DUA are not uncommon outside of a denser urban core, while our urban multifamily podium projects get hundreds of units / acre. Sometimes we see densities as low as 5 or 6 just a few miles from the city center, which might be a little surprising. With many of our past small lot projects, we have doubled this to 12 DUA, and in some cases tripled or quadrupled it to 18 and 24. Here’s a closer look inside last year’s AIA Award nominated 10 West, a small lot subdivision demonstrating a density of ~25 DUA. These are fee simple, single family homes that maintain open space, light, air and privacy, while reducing environmental impact through walkability to services and transit. The density means fewer homes will need to be built outside of the city, decreasing the impact of not just 1 or 2 units, but of 10. Additional sustainable features were incorporated such as drought tolerant planting, pervious paving, high reflective roofs, radiant heat, and increased R-values at the perimeter. The project moved through entitlement and permitting in about 9 months and was built in phases over the course of a few years. By design it was exceptionally cost effective, which helped to ensure developer ROI while maintaining design quality for the end user. Construction costs (per unit) were ~300/ft, soft costs ~50/ft and land value at ~100k. All in cost ~700k, sold for -1MM.
0:35

In a recent developer meeting we were discussing single family residential densities and how wide they range. Suburban developments of 4 DUA are not uncommon outside of a denser urban core, while our urban multifamily podium projects get hundreds of units / acre. Sometimes we see densities as low as 5 or 6 just a few miles from the city center, which might be a little surprising. With many of our past small lot projects, we have doubled this to 12 DUA, and in some cases tripled or quadrupled it to 18 and 24. Here’s a closer look inside last year’s AIA Award nominated 10 West, a small lot subdivision demonstrating a density of ~25 DUA. These are fee simple, single family homes that maintain open space, light, air and privacy, while reducing environmental impact through walkability to services and transit. The density means fewer homes will need to be built outside of the city, decreasing the impact of not just 1 or 2 units, but of 10. Additional sustainable features were incorporated such as drought tolerant planting, pervious paving, high reflective roofs, radiant heat, and increased R-values at the perimeter. The project moved through entitlement and permitting in about 9 months and was built in phases over the course of a few years. By design it was exceptionally cost effective, which helped to ensure developer ROI while maintaining design quality for the end user. Construction costs (per unit) were ~300/ft, soft costs ~50/ft and land value at ~100k. All in cost ~700k, sold for -1MM.

Matt Baran

91,217 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

** Call to Action for Global Pioneers: Uniting Efforts to Stabilize the GCV Price in the Exchange Market** Dear Global Pioneers, We are currently at a critical juncture that may determine our ability to swiftly realize the GCV in the exchange market. As of now, we are in the Open Network phase, which serves as a preparatory stage for a fully decentralized network where all code can be activated. It is important to note that the Pi Network has not registered as a security because it aims to function as a digital currency rather than a digital asset. However, given recent list on the exchange market, compliance with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now necessary for Pi Network, which subsequently require CT not to guide Pi's price in the exchange market. To address this situation, we urge all pioneers to unite in a call auction to ensure the GCV is stabilized as soon as possible. We implore you not to sell below the GCV price. Conversely, you are encouraged to buy if you have the means, as the current prices are significantly low. It is essential to emphasize that we are now in the Open Network phase, permitting both buying and selling. We have observed that many pioneers may be hesitant to make purchases; however, it is imperative that you do not let this concern deter you. We have surpassed the enclosed mainnet phase, where buying and selling were prohibited. Increasing liquidity in the exchange market is crucial for attracting external investors. At this stage, the combined strength of all pioneers is required to enhance purchasing power and to capitalize on lower prices. Please clarify your understanding of our current pricing situation. The existing market prices do not reflect Pi's value of our source code, which is derived from our blockchain record. Our efforts have previously focused on establishing Pi as a digital currency, culminating in the creation of the GCV blockchain record, which has indeed achieved success. For instance, the GitHub record indicates a GCV of $314,159, and Mr. Kasasih's code fork has now been integrated into the CT’s main bran code of the signifying its official status. The rationale for the current low prices in the exchange market stems, in part, from a lack of awareness among many pioneers, some of whom may be in financially constrained positions and require immediate funds for necessities. Such individuals may be misled by those who do not support GCV's potential, thereby selling their holdings at depressed prices. This underscores the importance of CT's control over KYC processes and migration procedures. Allowing all pioneers pass KYC and migrating Pi could lead to detrimental outcomes for the project, as uninformed pioneers may sell at significantly low prices. Just we see right now there are a lot of pioneers sell at very low price. So, CT only allow 10 million wallets migrated. It is important to recognize that the current low pricing is not the fault of the PCT or GCV CT, it is a consequence of a collective lack of proactive engagement from the pioneers. By promoting education on the true value of Pi as GCV, we can mitigate the prevalence of low-price sellers. While complaints about pricing may arise, it is essential to understand that we cannot prevent pioneers from selling. What we can do is purchase the available low-priced offerings from the market and collectively urge all pioneers not to sell below the GCV price. This remains a top priority for all involved if we aim to achieve the OM status swiftly. Additionally, it is vital to understand that the CT cannot announce the price of Pi in the exchange market, nor can they buy all the Pi in the exchange market. The price must ultimately be determined by the actions of our pioneering community and outside investors. Therefore, it is everyone's responsibility to refrain from complaints and instead focus on advancing the project collectively. We recommend all pioneers take the following actions: - Do not sell below $314,159. Please list selling price at $314,159. You should have confidence on GCV when it has been in the code already. Once the OM completed; all ecosystems will implement GCV. And you don’t need to wait long time and I estimate in one month or less. - Consider purchasing if you have extra funds available but ensure that you are not borrowing money or using essential living funds for these investments. Any amount such as $10 or $20 or $100 you choose to invest can contribute to increasing the visibility of Pi in the exchange market, potentially attracting outside investors. Also, many pioneers have locked three years with 100%, it is a good chance. You can acquire 6 Pi for just $10 right now. Once our pioneers warm up the market, you'll see outside investors becoming active, so there's no need to worry about how long or how much funding it will take to reach GCV. As soon as the low-priced Pi are being purchased, the price is poised to surge from just a few dollars to GCV in no time. We won't follow the traditional cryptocurrency path for growth because we have a strong community backing GCV.` It is crucial for all global pioneers to recognize that we are all collectively striving towards the successful realization of the OM. The CT shares this goal as well. However, if the exchange market price remains as low as $1 or $2, the likelihood of merchants joining the Pi Network diminishes. It is imperative that the gap between the ecosystem's Pi value and its exchange market price remain minimal. If the exchange price is low, it inhibits the CT's ability to fulfill ecosystem objectives. You need not worry about protracted timelines. With collective action, the path to achieving GCV can be expedited. While it would indeed be beneficial for the CT to manage arrangements efficiently, it is vital that we do not adopt a passive stance, awaiting resolutions. Delays could adversely affect both the reputation of PCT and the GCV CT. Lastly, I would like to address recent rumors suggesting that pioneers are unable to transfer Pi to or from the exchange market; this information is misleading. Pi Network is indeed open already, and the CT has verified five exchange markets for transactions. I have personally encountered challenges while attempting to purchase 1,000 Pi on the exchange market, with multiple platforms rejecting my credit and debit card payments. Nonetheless, I firmly believe that this represents a valuable investment opportunity critical for advancing our collective mission toward GCV unification in the exchange market. Your understanding of this message and prompt actions will be appreciated as we move forward together. Best regards, Doris Yin🪷🪷🪷 Founder, Global GCV Movement Feb.23rd, 2025
11:55

** Call to Action for Global Pioneers: Uniting Efforts to Stabilize the GCV Price in the Exchange Market** Dear Global Pioneers, We are currently at a critical juncture that may determine our ability to swiftly realize the GCV in the exchange market. As of now, we are in the Open Network phase, which serves as a preparatory stage for a fully decentralized network where all code can be activated. It is important to note that the Pi Network has not registered as a security because it aims to function as a digital currency rather than a digital asset. However, given recent list on the exchange market, compliance with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now necessary for Pi Network, which subsequently require CT not to guide Pi's price in the exchange market. To address this situation, we urge all pioneers to unite in a call auction to ensure the GCV is stabilized as soon as possible. We implore you not to sell below the GCV price. Conversely, you are encouraged to buy if you have the means, as the current prices are significantly low. It is essential to emphasize that we are now in the Open Network phase, permitting both buying and selling. We have observed that many pioneers may be hesitant to make purchases; however, it is imperative that you do not let this concern deter you. We have surpassed the enclosed mainnet phase, where buying and selling were prohibited. Increasing liquidity in the exchange market is crucial for attracting external investors. At this stage, the combined strength of all pioneers is required to enhance purchasing power and to capitalize on lower prices. Please clarify your understanding of our current pricing situation. The existing market prices do not reflect Pi's value of our source code, which is derived from our blockchain record. Our efforts have previously focused on establishing Pi as a digital currency, culminating in the creation of the GCV blockchain record, which has indeed achieved success. For instance, the GitHub record indicates a GCV of $314,159, and Mr. Kasasih's code fork has now been integrated into the CT’s main bran code of the signifying its official status. The rationale for the current low prices in the exchange market stems, in part, from a lack of awareness among many pioneers, some of whom may be in financially constrained positions and require immediate funds for necessities. Such individuals may be misled by those who do not support GCV's potential, thereby selling their holdings at depressed prices. This underscores the importance of CT's control over KYC processes and migration procedures. Allowing all pioneers pass KYC and migrating Pi could lead to detrimental outcomes for the project, as uninformed pioneers may sell at significantly low prices. Just we see right now there are a lot of pioneers sell at very low price. So, CT only allow 10 million wallets migrated. It is important to recognize that the current low pricing is not the fault of the PCT or GCV CT, it is a consequence of a collective lack of proactive engagement from the pioneers. By promoting education on the true value of Pi as GCV, we can mitigate the prevalence of low-price sellers. While complaints about pricing may arise, it is essential to understand that we cannot prevent pioneers from selling. What we can do is purchase the available low-priced offerings from the market and collectively urge all pioneers not to sell below the GCV price. This remains a top priority for all involved if we aim to achieve the OM status swiftly. Additionally, it is vital to understand that the CT cannot announce the price of Pi in the exchange market, nor can they buy all the Pi in the exchange market. The price must ultimately be determined by the actions of our pioneering community and outside investors. Therefore, it is everyone's responsibility to refrain from complaints and instead focus on advancing the project collectively. We recommend all pioneers take the following actions: - Do not sell below $314,159. Please list selling price at $314,159. You should have confidence on GCV when it has been in the code already. Once the OM completed; all ecosystems will implement GCV. And you don’t need to wait long time and I estimate in one month or less. - Consider purchasing if you have extra funds available but ensure that you are not borrowing money or using essential living funds for these investments. Any amount such as $10 or $20 or $100 you choose to invest can contribute to increasing the visibility of Pi in the exchange market, potentially attracting outside investors. Also, many pioneers have locked three years with 100%, it is a good chance. You can acquire 6 Pi for just $10 right now. Once our pioneers warm up the market, you'll see outside investors becoming active, so there's no need to worry about how long or how much funding it will take to reach GCV. As soon as the low-priced Pi are being purchased, the price is poised to surge from just a few dollars to GCV in no time. We won't follow the traditional cryptocurrency path for growth because we have a strong community backing GCV.` It is crucial for all global pioneers to recognize that we are all collectively striving towards the successful realization of the OM. The CT shares this goal as well. However, if the exchange market price remains as low as $1 or $2, the likelihood of merchants joining the Pi Network diminishes. It is imperative that the gap between the ecosystem's Pi value and its exchange market price remain minimal. If the exchange price is low, it inhibits the CT's ability to fulfill ecosystem objectives. You need not worry about protracted timelines. With collective action, the path to achieving GCV can be expedited. While it would indeed be beneficial for the CT to manage arrangements efficiently, it is vital that we do not adopt a passive stance, awaiting resolutions. Delays could adversely affect both the reputation of PCT and the GCV CT. Lastly, I would like to address recent rumors suggesting that pioneers are unable to transfer Pi to or from the exchange market; this information is misleading. Pi Network is indeed open already, and the CT has verified five exchange markets for transactions. I have personally encountered challenges while attempting to purchase 1,000 Pi on the exchange market, with multiple platforms rejecting my credit and debit card payments. Nonetheless, I firmly believe that this represents a valuable investment opportunity critical for advancing our collective mission toward GCV unification in the exchange market. Your understanding of this message and prompt actions will be appreciated as we move forward together. Best regards, Doris Yin🪷🪷🪷 Founder, Global GCV Movement Feb.23rd, 2025

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

143,141 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Brits and Europeans visiting America for the World Cup have discovered air conditioning and are asking why we don't have it this side of the Atlantic. Unfortunately, our stringent net zero policies mean air conditioning is illegal in a lot of places. One place air conditioning is allowed is in the offices of top European Union bureaucrats who decide the rules, banning it for other people - even their underlings on the floors below them. Compare this to China, where even pigs can have air conditioning. It's almost as if the oppressive communist regime with corrupt, self-serving leaders is Europe. The thing is, air conditioning could support net zero. Air conditioners run when it's very hot, and it's very hot when the sun is shining, and when the sun is shining, all the solar panels Ed Miliband forced us to install make lots of power. Too much power, in fact. There's an increasingly common phenomenon where the grid gets overloaded by electricity produced by renewables, and then electricity has to be given a negative price (paying people to use it) to encourage people to use it to syphon off this extra power so it doesn't damage the grid. Meanwhile, the usual uninformed lefty windbags appear on the BBC to spout off nonsense about evil Britain using lots of air-conditioning while countries such as India and Nigeria don't use it at all. This is nonsense. 20% of Nigerians and 10% of Indians have air conditioning in their homes, compared to only 3-4% in Britain. It's almost as if Net Zero isn't about efficient energy use at all, but it's just about making us suffer.
9:18

Brits and Europeans visiting America for the World Cup have discovered air conditioning and are asking why we don't have it this side of the Atlantic. Unfortunately, our stringent net zero policies mean air conditioning is illegal in a lot of places. One place air conditioning is allowed is in the offices of top European Union bureaucrats who decide the rules, banning it for other people - even their underlings on the floors below them. Compare this to China, where even pigs can have air conditioning. It's almost as if the oppressive communist regime with corrupt, self-serving leaders is Europe. The thing is, air conditioning could support net zero. Air conditioners run when it's very hot, and it's very hot when the sun is shining, and when the sun is shining, all the solar panels Ed Miliband forced us to install make lots of power. Too much power, in fact. There's an increasingly common phenomenon where the grid gets overloaded by electricity produced by renewables, and then electricity has to be given a negative price (paying people to use it) to encourage people to use it to syphon off this extra power so it doesn't damage the grid. Meanwhile, the usual uninformed lefty windbags appear on the BBC to spout off nonsense about evil Britain using lots of air-conditioning while countries such as India and Nigeria don't use it at all. This is nonsense. 20% of Nigerians and 10% of Indians have air conditioning in their homes, compared to only 3-4% in Britain. It's almost as if Net Zero isn't about efficient energy use at all, but it's just about making us suffer.

Leo Kearse - see me on tour! Links in bio

17,636 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Most people only know Temu and Shein. But I know three platforms you can order from at very cheap prices. They're platforms where Chinese people actually shop on, so things are way cheaper there because you're buying directly from the producers. Even Temu gets its goods from some of these platforms. Likewise, a lot of "mini importers" in Nigeria use these websites. All those WhatsApp and Facebook vendors you see around, they get their goods from these websites at very low prices, then they inflate the prices when they want to resell. I'll mention them below and share their links in the comments section. 1.▫️1688 Best for clothes, shoes, bags, phone accessories, electronics, home appliances, and just about anything in bulk. They offer wholesale prices, but you may need to make bulk orders (10 to 100+ units). It's best for people who want to resell. The language on this website is Chinese, so you'll have to translate it. The video below explains how. 2.▫️Taobao Best for fashion, jewelry, home decor, gadgets, and niche items you can't easily find elsewhere. They sell single items easily, have a huge variety, and even better quality than what gets imported to Temu. It's good for both individuals and resellers. 3.▫️Pinduoduo Best for everyday items, kitchenware, phone accessories, small gadgets, and household basics. This is similar to Taobao, and often even cheaper. It's a great place for everyday buys. NOTE, though: Also, none of these websites ship internationally. You'll need a shipping agent to receive your order in China and forward it to you. It's also best to order in bulk. Some of the agents include: - Superbuy - CSSBuy To use a shipping agent: 1. Create an agent account on any of the agent website I'll share in the comments. 2. Paste the product link from 1688, Taobao, or PDD into their search bar. 2. The agent buys it and receives it at their warehouse. 3. You pay a service fee, then shipping once it arrives. 3. Agent ships to you, sometimes combining items to save cost. Just make sure to always read the descriptions. Sort by best-selling, read reviews and check the photos shared by reviewers instead of relying on product pictures. I'm sure you learnt something. Stay sharp! 🪒
3:25

Most people only know Temu and Shein. But I know three platforms you can order from at very cheap prices. They're platforms where Chinese people actually shop on, so things are way cheaper there because you're buying directly from the producers. Even Temu gets its goods from some of these platforms. Likewise, a lot of "mini importers" in Nigeria use these websites. All those WhatsApp and Facebook vendors you see around, they get their goods from these websites at very low prices, then they inflate the prices when they want to resell. I'll mention them below and share their links in the comments section. 1.▫️1688 Best for clothes, shoes, bags, phone accessories, electronics, home appliances, and just about anything in bulk. They offer wholesale prices, but you may need to make bulk orders (10 to 100+ units). It's best for people who want to resell. The language on this website is Chinese, so you'll have to translate it. The video below explains how. 2.▫️Taobao Best for fashion, jewelry, home decor, gadgets, and niche items you can't easily find elsewhere. They sell single items easily, have a huge variety, and even better quality than what gets imported to Temu. It's good for both individuals and resellers. 3.▫️Pinduoduo Best for everyday items, kitchenware, phone accessories, small gadgets, and household basics. This is similar to Taobao, and often even cheaper. It's a great place for everyday buys. NOTE, though: Also, none of these websites ship internationally. You'll need a shipping agent to receive your order in China and forward it to you. It's also best to order in bulk. Some of the agents include: - Superbuy - CSSBuy To use a shipping agent: 1. Create an agent account on any of the agent website I'll share in the comments. 2. Paste the product link from 1688, Taobao, or PDD into their search bar. 2. The agent buys it and receives it at their warehouse. 3. You pay a service fee, then shipping once it arrives. 3. Agent ships to you, sometimes combining items to save cost. Just make sure to always read the descriptions. Sort by best-selling, read reviews and check the photos shared by reviewers instead of relying on product pictures. I'm sure you learnt something. Stay sharp! 🪒

YUA

827,645 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Gold is roaring because the US has stopped pretending. The polite version is “strong dollar policy.” The real version is: we will accept and even welcome, a softer dollar to win the trade war and rebuild American industry Gold Made an ATH at $5,500+ and the dollar keeps sliding. Most people think it’s just “safe-haven buying” or “China speculation.” Look closer: the current US administration is quietly sending a very different signal and markets are listening loud and clear. Here’s what they are indirectly telling the world(even while Treasury still says “strong dollar policy” out loud): 1. We are done accepting huge, structural trade deficits as the permanent price of dollar reserve status. That old deal is being torn up. 2. We are willing and in many ways prefer a meaningfully weaker dollar if it delivers: • sharply lower trade deficits • faster reshoring of manufacturing • stronger leverage in forcing surplus countries to rebalance 3. Tariffs aren’t mainly about revenue or punishing inflation. They are the primary tool to force global trade rebalancing especially making China choose between: - massively increasing domestic consumption, or - losing serious access to the US market 4. Onshoring + friend-shoring + trillion-dollar industrial incentives = permanent structural reduction in US demand for goods from chronic surplus nations. That shrinks their surpluses even without a big dollar move. 5. We are comfortable letting gold, silver and other hard assets run because maximum dollar purchasing power is no longer the overriding priority. Real-economy revival and trade-flow correction now sit higher in the hierarchy. The dollar index making lower lows and gold exploding higher are not accidents. They are the market’s cleanest read that the US has shifted priorities: Re-industrialize America and rebalance global trade even if it means tolerating (or engineering) a weaker dollar for a while.** Call it managed depreciation, tariff collateral, or strategic pivot the direction is unmistakable. Gold isn’t just reacting to fear. It’s pricing in a deliberate change in US policy posture. What’s your take, intentional path toward a softer dollar, or just unavoidable side-effect?
1:37

Gold is roaring because the US has stopped pretending. The polite version is “strong dollar policy.” The real version is: we will accept and even welcome, a softer dollar to win the trade war and rebuild American industry Gold Made an ATH at $5,500+ and the dollar keeps sliding. Most people think it’s just “safe-haven buying” or “China speculation.” Look closer: the current US administration is quietly sending a very different signal and markets are listening loud and clear. Here’s what they are indirectly telling the world(even while Treasury still says “strong dollar policy” out loud): 1. We are done accepting huge, structural trade deficits as the permanent price of dollar reserve status. That old deal is being torn up. 2. We are willing and in many ways prefer a meaningfully weaker dollar if it delivers: • sharply lower trade deficits • faster reshoring of manufacturing • stronger leverage in forcing surplus countries to rebalance 3. Tariffs aren’t mainly about revenue or punishing inflation. They are the primary tool to force global trade rebalancing especially making China choose between: - massively increasing domestic consumption, or - losing serious access to the US market 4. Onshoring + friend-shoring + trillion-dollar industrial incentives = permanent structural reduction in US demand for goods from chronic surplus nations. That shrinks their surpluses even without a big dollar move. 5. We are comfortable letting gold, silver and other hard assets run because maximum dollar purchasing power is no longer the overriding priority. Real-economy revival and trade-flow correction now sit higher in the hierarchy. The dollar index making lower lows and gold exploding higher are not accidents. They are the market’s cleanest read that the US has shifted priorities: Re-industrialize America and rebalance global trade even if it means tolerating (or engineering) a weaker dollar for a while.** Call it managed depreciation, tariff collateral, or strategic pivot the direction is unmistakable. Gold isn’t just reacting to fear. It’s pricing in a deliberate change in US policy posture. What’s your take, intentional path toward a softer dollar, or just unavoidable side-effect?

Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

143,727 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

I did a lot of interviews today about Hantavirus and tried to answer a lot of questions. If you're freaking out, here are things you should know: 1) I'm not freaking out. Like, at all. On a scale of 1-10 of worry, I'm at <1. I've spent a long time preparing for and responding to dangerous outbreaks. I've worked onboard vessels at sea that needed to disembark sick passengers. THIS situation is not my nightmare, promise. 2) When WOULD I freak out? If we learned that transmission was much more common and much easier than what we've seen so far, and that many more people were sick. I do expect a few more positive cases, and wouldn't be surprised if we seen a few tied to folks who traveled back to their homes. But I don't expect hundreds of cases. Or thousands. Or for this to be the next pandemic, at all. 3) What I'm being careful about—We know a lot about this type of Hantavirus, but there's still a lot we can learn. Over the next few weeks, we'll get a better understanding of how well it transmits, who might be at greater risk, and whether we need to update what we thought we knew. But transmission on a cruise ship likely doesn't reflect much about how this plays out in the 'real world'. Suffice it to say, we're gonna learn a lot, and some things we 'know' will likely change. 4) The U.S. is catching up—sending CDC disease detectives to the ship to accompany American passengers home—but we were WAY too flat-footed here. We should've been on the ball earlier on. But when we pull down the systems we've built over decades to respond to stuff like this—think all the USAID cuts, the CDC cuts, the NIH cuts, and severing the relationship with the WHO—we are gonna be spending a lot of time catching up as opposed to leading the response. That's a huge shame. 5) The WHO is doing a helluva job right now. They have put out real clear communications, are working with governments to coordinate travel and quarantines and testing. We would be in a MUCH MUCH worse spot right now if it wasn't for the WHO, promise. 6) The American passengers are going to a special facility in Nebraska for 'special pathogens' like Hantavirus. Many folks don't know that we have over a dozen specialized centers all over the U.S. that can treat patients just like this. We keep them on the ready at all times, which takes massive amounts of human resources, supplies, and funding. Thankfully their funding has been protected over the past decade, but this is exactly why we need to maintain support for this constant readiness. We'd never take away firefighters' hoses and water and expect them to respond perfectly to the next fire...we must treat preparation for all health threats the same! 7) The folks I'm talking to at the CDC—the 'boots on the ground' disease detectives and epidemiologists—are doing amazing work. But where the hell is our health leadership right now? RFK Jr, are you going to say anything about what we're doing to respond? I'll share soon, and let me know your questions below...
4:33

I did a lot of interviews today about Hantavirus and tried to answer a lot of questions. If you're freaking out, here are things you should know: 1) I'm not freaking out. Like, at all. On a scale of 1-10 of worry, I'm at <1. I've spent a long time preparing for and responding to dangerous outbreaks. I've worked onboard vessels at sea that needed to disembark sick passengers. THIS situation is not my nightmare, promise. 2) When WOULD I freak out? If we learned that transmission was much more common and much easier than what we've seen so far, and that many more people were sick. I do expect a few more positive cases, and wouldn't be surprised if we seen a few tied to folks who traveled back to their homes. But I don't expect hundreds of cases. Or thousands. Or for this to be the next pandemic, at all. 3) What I'm being careful about—We know a lot about this type of Hantavirus, but there's still a lot we can learn. Over the next few weeks, we'll get a better understanding of how well it transmits, who might be at greater risk, and whether we need to update what we thought we knew. But transmission on a cruise ship likely doesn't reflect much about how this plays out in the 'real world'. Suffice it to say, we're gonna learn a lot, and some things we 'know' will likely change. 4) The U.S. is catching up—sending CDC disease detectives to the ship to accompany American passengers home—but we were WAY too flat-footed here. We should've been on the ball earlier on. But when we pull down the systems we've built over decades to respond to stuff like this—think all the USAID cuts, the CDC cuts, the NIH cuts, and severing the relationship with the WHO—we are gonna be spending a lot of time catching up as opposed to leading the response. That's a huge shame. 5) The WHO is doing a helluva job right now. They have put out real clear communications, are working with governments to coordinate travel and quarantines and testing. We would be in a MUCH MUCH worse spot right now if it wasn't for the WHO, promise. 6) The American passengers are going to a special facility in Nebraska for 'special pathogens' like Hantavirus. Many folks don't know that we have over a dozen specialized centers all over the U.S. that can treat patients just like this. We keep them on the ready at all times, which takes massive amounts of human resources, supplies, and funding. Thankfully their funding has been protected over the past decade, but this is exactly why we need to maintain support for this constant readiness. We'd never take away firefighters' hoses and water and expect them to respond perfectly to the next fire...we must treat preparation for all health threats the same! 7) The folks I'm talking to at the CDC—the 'boots on the ground' disease detectives and epidemiologists—are doing amazing work. But where the hell is our health leadership right now? RFK Jr, are you going to say anything about what we're doing to respond? I'll share soon, and let me know your questions below...

Craig Spencer MD MPH

116,880 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Many people around the world are being told that Trump is the racist and Biden is the good guy. Unknown to them, it was Biden who pushed some of the most racist pieces of legislation in the United States that sent thousands of black and brown people to prison for drug use or possession. Still, when his own son Hunter Biden became an addict, he defended him and even praised him. It’s often called the law of karma. It’s like when the most anti-gay parent ends up having only gay children, or the most anti-immigrant person has to deal with the fact that their only daughter has fallen in love with an undocumented immigrant and is ready to leave the country to be with them in Guatemala or Sudan. One of the legislations that Biden pushed fervently was in 1986, when crack cocaine was more prevalent in black communities, while powder cocaine was more common among White users. As white and black people were using hard drugs, Biden and his colleagues decided in their wisdom to craft a bill that punished black and brown people a hundred times more severely. It was known as the 100:1 disparity and was widely criticized for being racially discriminatory and contributing to systemic racial inequities in the criminal justice system. The 100:1 sentencing disparity between crack cocaine and powder cocaine refers to a provision in the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act, which mandated significantly harsher penalties for offenses involving crack cocaine compared to those involving powder cocaine. Specifically, the law required the same mandatory minimum prison sentence for possession of 5 grams of crack cocaine as it did for 500 grams of powder cocaine—a 100:1 ratio. More than two decades later, in 2010, the Fair Sentencing Act reduced the disparity from 100:1 to 18:1, raising the amount of crack cocaine needed to trigger the mandatory minimum sentence to 28 grams. As you can see, even the reduced ratio still perpetuated unjust sentencing disparities. In case you missed what I just said, here is a summary. 1. Mandatory Minimum Sentences: Crack Cocaine (used mainly by black people): Possession of 5 grams triggered a mandatory minimum sentence of 5 years in federal prison. Powder Cocaine (used mainly by white people): Possession of 500 grams triggered the same 5-year mandatory minimum sentence. 2. Impact on Sentencing: The disparity above led to much longer prison sentences for individuals convicted of offenses involving crack cocaine compared to those involving powder cocaine, despite the substances being pharmacologically similar. 3. Racial Disparities: Crack cocaine was more commonly used in urban, predominantly black communities, while powder cocaine was more prevalent among white and more affluent users. This resulted in disproportionately high incarceration rates for black individuals relative to white individuals for similar drug offenses. Below is a recap of some of the most racist bills that Biden fervently pushed, including the 1994 Crime Bill that sent thousands of black and brown people to prison and ruined their lives forever for drug possession. 1. 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act: This act increased federal penalties for many crimes, established new mandatory minimum sentences, and introduced new measures for asset forfeiture. Critics argue that these policies disproportionately impacted black and brown communities. 2. 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act: This legislation introduced mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenses, including a controversial 100:1 sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine, as explained above. 3. 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act (Crime Bill): The bill included provisions for “three strikes” mandatory life sentences, allocated funds for new prisons, and expanded the death penalty. It also included funding for community policing and the Violence Against Women Act. Critics argue that the bill contributed to mass incarceration, which disproportionately affected Black and Brown communities. 4. 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (Welfare Reform): This act aimed to reduce welfare dependency through work requirements and time limits on benefits. Critics contend that it disproportionately affected low-income families, many of whom were black and brown, by reducing their access to social safety nets.
1:22

Many people around the world are being told that Trump is the racist and Biden is the good guy. Unknown to them, it was Biden who pushed some of the most racist pieces of legislation in the United States that sent thousands of black and brown people to prison for drug use or possession. Still, when his own son Hunter Biden became an addict, he defended him and even praised him. It’s often called the law of karma. It’s like when the most anti-gay parent ends up having only gay children, or the most anti-immigrant person has to deal with the fact that their only daughter has fallen in love with an undocumented immigrant and is ready to leave the country to be with them in Guatemala or Sudan. One of the legislations that Biden pushed fervently was in 1986, when crack cocaine was more prevalent in black communities, while powder cocaine was more common among White users. As white and black people were using hard drugs, Biden and his colleagues decided in their wisdom to craft a bill that punished black and brown people a hundred times more severely. It was known as the 100:1 disparity and was widely criticized for being racially discriminatory and contributing to systemic racial inequities in the criminal justice system. The 100:1 sentencing disparity between crack cocaine and powder cocaine refers to a provision in the 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act, which mandated significantly harsher penalties for offenses involving crack cocaine compared to those involving powder cocaine. Specifically, the law required the same mandatory minimum prison sentence for possession of 5 grams of crack cocaine as it did for 500 grams of powder cocaine—a 100:1 ratio. More than two decades later, in 2010, the Fair Sentencing Act reduced the disparity from 100:1 to 18:1, raising the amount of crack cocaine needed to trigger the mandatory minimum sentence to 28 grams. As you can see, even the reduced ratio still perpetuated unjust sentencing disparities. In case you missed what I just said, here is a summary. 1. Mandatory Minimum Sentences: Crack Cocaine (used mainly by black people): Possession of 5 grams triggered a mandatory minimum sentence of 5 years in federal prison. Powder Cocaine (used mainly by white people): Possession of 500 grams triggered the same 5-year mandatory minimum sentence. 2. Impact on Sentencing: The disparity above led to much longer prison sentences for individuals convicted of offenses involving crack cocaine compared to those involving powder cocaine, despite the substances being pharmacologically similar. 3. Racial Disparities: Crack cocaine was more commonly used in urban, predominantly black communities, while powder cocaine was more prevalent among white and more affluent users. This resulted in disproportionately high incarceration rates for black individuals relative to white individuals for similar drug offenses. Below is a recap of some of the most racist bills that Biden fervently pushed, including the 1994 Crime Bill that sent thousands of black and brown people to prison and ruined their lives forever for drug possession. 1. 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act: This act increased federal penalties for many crimes, established new mandatory minimum sentences, and introduced new measures for asset forfeiture. Critics argue that these policies disproportionately impacted black and brown communities. 2. 1986 Anti-Drug Abuse Act: This legislation introduced mandatory minimum sentences for drug offenses, including a controversial 100:1 sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine, as explained above. 3. 1994 Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act (Crime Bill): The bill included provisions for “three strikes” mandatory life sentences, allocated funds for new prisons, and expanded the death penalty. It also included funding for community policing and the Violence Against Women Act. Critics argue that the bill contributed to mass incarceration, which disproportionately affected Black and Brown communities. 4. 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (Welfare Reform): This act aimed to reduce welfare dependency through work requirements and time limits on benefits. Critics contend that it disproportionately affected low-income families, many of whom were black and brown, by reducing their access to social safety nets.

Simon Ateba

445,856 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

MEET THE NVIDIA KILLER: OpenAI bet $10 BILLION on this company that makes chips 20x faster than Nvidia's. If this plays out as expected, it’s over for Nvidia. Cerebras Systems just locked in 750 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI through 2028. For reference: that's equivalent to the annual power consumption of 600,000 US homes. The deal? Over $10 billion. Here's what nobody understands: Cerebras doesn't make normal chips. Nvidia sells you thousands of tiny chips that you connect together. Cerebras makes ONE chip. A single wafer-scale processor the size of a dinner plate. 900,000 AI cores. 4 trillion transistors. All on one piece of silicon. The result? When OpenAI tested it, Cerebras ran inference 20X FASTER than Nvidia GPUs. That's not incremental improvement. That's a different category of performance. But here's where the story gets wild: Four months ago, Cerebras was a struggling company. Their IPO filing revealed that 87% of their revenue came from ONE customer: G42, a UAE-based AI firm. The US government launched a national security review. G42 had ties to Huawei. Ties to China. The IPO collapsed. Investors panicked. Cerebras withdrew their filing in October 2025. Most startups would've been dead. Instead, Cerebras did the opposite. They raised $1.1 billion at an $8.1 billion valuation. Kicked G42 out of the cap table entirely. Got CFIUS clearance. Then landed the OpenAI deal. Now they're raising ANOTHER $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. They more than DOUBLED their valuation in 4 months. From near-death to $22 billion. While getting rid of their biggest customer. Why OpenAI chose them: ChatGPT has 900 million weekly users. Sam Altman keeps saying they have a "severe shortage" of compute. They need SPEED, not just power. When you ask ChatGPT a question, there's a loop happening: You send request → model thinks → sends response back Nvidia chips are fast at training models. Cerebras chips are built specifically for inference. For real-time responses. For the exact bottleneck OpenAI is trying to solve. Sachin Katti from OpenAI said it best: "Cerebras adds a dedicated low-latency inference solution to our platform. That means faster responses, more natural interactions, and a stronger foundation to scale real-time AI to many more people." In other words: "We need this to scale ChatGPT." The competitive landscape just shifted: Nvidia announced a $100 billion deal with OpenAI in September. But it's still not finalized. Meanwhile, Cerebras closed their deal before Thanksgiving. And it's ALREADY being deployed. Here's the part that should terrify Nvidia: In December, Nvidia bought Groq for $20 billion. Groq makes fast inference chips. Just like Cerebras. So why would Nvidia spend $20 billion buying a competitor to something they supposedly already dominate? Because they know what's coming. Inference is the new battleground. And Cerebras is winning it. The IPO is coming Q2 2026. After this OpenAI deal, Cerebras now has: ✓ IBM contracts ✓ Department of Energy contracts ✓ OpenAI locked in for 3 years ✓ $22 billion valuation ✓ CFIUS clearance ✓ Zero customer concentration risk They went from 87% revenue dependency on one customer to the most diversified chip company outside Nvidia. In four months. The lesson? Smart money doesn't follow headlines. It follows where the AI leaders are actually spending. OpenAI didn't announce this deal for publicity. They need Cerebras hardware to scale ChatGPT. That's a $10 billion vote of confidence. While everyone's watching Nvidia stock, the real war is happening in inference. And the company with ONE giant chip just beat the company with thousands of tiny ones. What do you think happens when Cerebras IPOs?
1:03

MEET THE NVIDIA KILLER: OpenAI bet $10 BILLION on this company that makes chips 20x faster than Nvidia's. If this plays out as expected, it’s over for Nvidia. Cerebras Systems just locked in 750 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI through 2028. For reference: that's equivalent to the annual power consumption of 600,000 US homes. The deal? Over $10 billion. Here's what nobody understands: Cerebras doesn't make normal chips. Nvidia sells you thousands of tiny chips that you connect together. Cerebras makes ONE chip. A single wafer-scale processor the size of a dinner plate. 900,000 AI cores. 4 trillion transistors. All on one piece of silicon. The result? When OpenAI tested it, Cerebras ran inference 20X FASTER than Nvidia GPUs. That's not incremental improvement. That's a different category of performance. But here's where the story gets wild: Four months ago, Cerebras was a struggling company. Their IPO filing revealed that 87% of their revenue came from ONE customer: G42, a UAE-based AI firm. The US government launched a national security review. G42 had ties to Huawei. Ties to China. The IPO collapsed. Investors panicked. Cerebras withdrew their filing in October 2025. Most startups would've been dead. Instead, Cerebras did the opposite. They raised $1.1 billion at an $8.1 billion valuation. Kicked G42 out of the cap table entirely. Got CFIUS clearance. Then landed the OpenAI deal. Now they're raising ANOTHER $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. They more than DOUBLED their valuation in 4 months. From near-death to $22 billion. While getting rid of their biggest customer. Why OpenAI chose them: ChatGPT has 900 million weekly users. Sam Altman keeps saying they have a "severe shortage" of compute. They need SPEED, not just power. When you ask ChatGPT a question, there's a loop happening: You send request → model thinks → sends response back Nvidia chips are fast at training models. Cerebras chips are built specifically for inference. For real-time responses. For the exact bottleneck OpenAI is trying to solve. Sachin Katti from OpenAI said it best: "Cerebras adds a dedicated low-latency inference solution to our platform. That means faster responses, more natural interactions, and a stronger foundation to scale real-time AI to many more people." In other words: "We need this to scale ChatGPT." The competitive landscape just shifted: Nvidia announced a $100 billion deal with OpenAI in September. But it's still not finalized. Meanwhile, Cerebras closed their deal before Thanksgiving. And it's ALREADY being deployed. Here's the part that should terrify Nvidia: In December, Nvidia bought Groq for $20 billion. Groq makes fast inference chips. Just like Cerebras. So why would Nvidia spend $20 billion buying a competitor to something they supposedly already dominate? Because they know what's coming. Inference is the new battleground. And Cerebras is winning it. The IPO is coming Q2 2026. After this OpenAI deal, Cerebras now has: ✓ IBM contracts ✓ Department of Energy contracts ✓ OpenAI locked in for 3 years ✓ $22 billion valuation ✓ CFIUS clearance ✓ Zero customer concentration risk They went from 87% revenue dependency on one customer to the most diversified chip company outside Nvidia. In four months. The lesson? Smart money doesn't follow headlines. It follows where the AI leaders are actually spending. OpenAI didn't announce this deal for publicity. They need Cerebras hardware to scale ChatGPT. That's a $10 billion vote of confidence. While everyone's watching Nvidia stock, the real war is happening in inference. And the company with ONE giant chip just beat the company with thousands of tiny ones. What do you think happens when Cerebras IPOs?

Ricardo

28,088 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass is in the middle of a massive money laundering operation - A racial justice nonprofit is getting $875,000 PER UNIT from taxpayers to build 3 skyscrapers - The CEO of this nonprofit has close ties to Karen Bass - Karen Bass put this nonprofit’s CEO on the LA County Affordable Housing Solutions Board - So he’s now approving the money and getting the money Here’s the full breakdown: The Weingart Center is a Skid Row nonprofit that claims to advance “racial, social, and economic justice” by helping the homeless. They manage multiple properties The CEO is Kevin Murray and he makes $400,000 per year In 2024, LA Mayor Karen Bass appointed Kevin Murray to the LA County Affordable Housing Solutions Board. The board that oversees homeless funding So the nonprofit that gets the money is now deciding who gets the money and how much (Huge conflict of interest) Next, Mayor Karen Bass appointed Ben Rosen, Director of Real Estate Development, to the same board at Kevin Murray’s request (So now the homeless nonprofit CEO is telling mayor Karen Bass who else to appoint to be in charge of giving our homeless money, and she’s doing it) Weingart raked in $100 million in just one year (It pays to be close with Karen Bass) A big chunk of that money comes from California’s Homekey Initiative: California has dumped nearly $4 billion into Homekey Initiative but: - 71% of properties vacant - Multiple fraud cases - One developer charged $2M on his personal Amex for things like Coachella tickets But instead of shutting it down, they expanded it with Homekey Plus. Naturally the nonprofit friend of Karen Bass The Weingart Center wants some of that new money Weingart wanted $37 million to turn a 122-room hotel into permanent housing. They’d pocket $2+ million in developer fees and got a sweet deal with ongoing subsidies Here’s where some fraud comes in The property was valued at just $10M - 21M, not the $30M they wanted. They wanted to pocket $10 million dollars of taxpayer money Luckily public backlash killed the deal, but that’s not where it ends The Weingart Center tried to convert a Cheviot Hills nursing home using $26 million in Homekey funds. Mayor Bass helped personally recommend it. The developer? Stephen Taylor who’s now facing 9 felony charges for altering bank statements and lying to lenders while trying to flip the property for double the price. Weingart signed the deal with a confidentiality clause. The Weingart Center has repeatedly failed federal audit requirements… yet even after still, they still got a $9 million no-bid contract from Mayor Karen Bass (She’s clearly involved in the fraud) Now The Weingart Center is likely getting $865,000 per apartment unit to build 3 skyscrapers, all paid for by taxpayers Facilitated by Karen Bass The money laundering never ends, LA has been doing this a lot lately, here’s a few more - Restoration apartments: Bought in 2020 via Homekey for $5.3 million to create 80 units of recovery housing for the homeless. 6 years later it’s completely abandoned - Shangri-La Industries got 26 million in Homekey grants, he bought luxury items, cars and trips - In South LA a shelter operator with a $2.3 million city contract claimed 88 beds in court filings. A spot check revealed only 44 actual beds, the rest were empty platforms The fraud in California never stops
2:48

Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass is in the middle of a massive money laundering operation - A racial justice nonprofit is getting $875,000 PER UNIT from taxpayers to build 3 skyscrapers - The CEO of this nonprofit has close ties to Karen Bass - Karen Bass put this nonprofit’s CEO on the LA County Affordable Housing Solutions Board - So he’s now approving the money and getting the money Here’s the full breakdown: The Weingart Center is a Skid Row nonprofit that claims to advance “racial, social, and economic justice” by helping the homeless. They manage multiple properties The CEO is Kevin Murray and he makes $400,000 per year In 2024, LA Mayor Karen Bass appointed Kevin Murray to the LA County Affordable Housing Solutions Board. The board that oversees homeless funding So the nonprofit that gets the money is now deciding who gets the money and how much (Huge conflict of interest) Next, Mayor Karen Bass appointed Ben Rosen, Director of Real Estate Development, to the same board at Kevin Murray’s request (So now the homeless nonprofit CEO is telling mayor Karen Bass who else to appoint to be in charge of giving our homeless money, and she’s doing it) Weingart raked in $100 million in just one year (It pays to be close with Karen Bass) A big chunk of that money comes from California’s Homekey Initiative: California has dumped nearly $4 billion into Homekey Initiative but: - 71% of properties vacant - Multiple fraud cases - One developer charged $2M on his personal Amex for things like Coachella tickets But instead of shutting it down, they expanded it with Homekey Plus. Naturally the nonprofit friend of Karen Bass The Weingart Center wants some of that new money Weingart wanted $37 million to turn a 122-room hotel into permanent housing. They’d pocket $2+ million in developer fees and got a sweet deal with ongoing subsidies Here’s where some fraud comes in The property was valued at just $10M - 21M, not the $30M they wanted. They wanted to pocket $10 million dollars of taxpayer money Luckily public backlash killed the deal, but that’s not where it ends The Weingart Center tried to convert a Cheviot Hills nursing home using $26 million in Homekey funds. Mayor Bass helped personally recommend it. The developer? Stephen Taylor who’s now facing 9 felony charges for altering bank statements and lying to lenders while trying to flip the property for double the price. Weingart signed the deal with a confidentiality clause. The Weingart Center has repeatedly failed federal audit requirements… yet even after still, they still got a $9 million no-bid contract from Mayor Karen Bass (She’s clearly involved in the fraud) Now The Weingart Center is likely getting $865,000 per apartment unit to build 3 skyscrapers, all paid for by taxpayers Facilitated by Karen Bass The money laundering never ends, LA has been doing this a lot lately, here’s a few more - Restoration apartments: Bought in 2020 via Homekey for $5.3 million to create 80 units of recovery housing for the homeless. 6 years later it’s completely abandoned - Shangri-La Industries got 26 million in Homekey grants, he bought luxury items, cars and trips - In South LA a shelter operator with a $2.3 million city contract claimed 88 beds in court filings. A spot check revealed only 44 actual beds, the rest were empty platforms The fraud in California never stops

Wall Street Apes

222,277 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!
1:06

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

Mike

711,006 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

The Masters is one of my favorite sporting events, and its 88-year history brings some great traditions. Here's a running list of the most interesting facts: 1. Media tickets (badges) have RFID tags inside them so the club knows where each person is at all times. 2. Even players who miss the cut at the Masters still walk away with a $10,000 check. 3. A 5-bedroom home near Augusta will rent for $30,000+ during Masters week, and brands often pay six figures for larger homes where they can host events. 4. The IRS has a special exemption in the tax code called the "Augusta Rule," allowing homeowners to rent out their homes for 14 days per year without paying taxes on the income. This rule was initially implemented for Augusta residents only but is now available to everyone in the United States. 5. The Masters will do $70 million in merchandise sales this week. That's... • $10 million per day • $1 million per hour • $16,000 per minute • $277 per second The merchandise is so popular because you can only buy it at Augusta (aka no online sales). 6. In 1931, Augusta National was purchased for $70,000— or an inflation-adjusted $1.4 million. However, the property is now valued at over $200 million. 7. Augusta National has quietly been expanding over the years, spending more than $200 million (through an array of LLCs) to buy 100+ properties. Augusta has purchased strip malls, restaurants, apartment complexes, and homes, adding 270+ acres to the property and often paying 3-4x their value. 8. Augusta National is debuting "Map & Flag" at this year's tournament. The premium hospitality offering isn't even on the property — it was built in a strip mall down the street that Augusta acquired for $26 million in 2020 — yet they were able to charge $17,000 per ticket (+ week-long badges) and have completely sold out. 9. The concession stand food is wrapped in green packaging, so it can't be seen on TV if someone litters. 10. Someone once found a green jacket in a Canadian thrift store. They purchased the jacket for $5, and it later sold at auction for $140,000. 11. Magnolia Lane is exactly 330 yards long, with 61 trees on each side. 12. Augusta's clubhouse has a wine cellar with 30+ pages of the world's most exclusive wines. 13. Previous Masters champions gather every year for dinner on the Tuesday before the tournament. The previous year's winner gets to pick the menu, but he must also pay for the meal. 14. The Masters leaves millions on the table by giving away the broadcasting rights to ESPN and CBS for free. They do this to maintain complete control, handpicking advertisers, eliminating on-course signage, and only playing 3 to 4 minutes of commercials each hour. 15. Unlike most golf clubs, which are registered as non-profits, Augusta National is a for-profit corporation. This requires them to pay more taxes, but they do it anyway because it means they don't have to share their member list, income, holdings, or expansion plans. 16. More than 1,500 private jets will land in Augusta this week, paying about $3,000 in landing and parking fees. 17. Augusta has SubAir Systems under each green. This enables them to keep the greens consistent, sucking up water when it rains and adding moisture when it's hot. Also, when someone slipped a few years back, Augusta added SubAir systems under all the walkways. 18. Dwight D. Eisenhower is the only U.S. President to become a member at Augusta National. He never actually attended the Masters, but Eisenhower made 29 trips to the property, playing 210 rounds of golf, during his eight-year term as President. Even crazier, Augusta worked with the Secret Service to build him a safe place to stay, called Eisenhower Cabin, which is still used on the property today. That's it for today! Enjoy the tournament, and if you learned something from this post, follow me for more sports business content.
10:53

The Masters is one of my favorite sporting events, and its 88-year history brings some great traditions. Here's a running list of the most interesting facts: 1. Media tickets (badges) have RFID tags inside them so the club knows where each person is at all times. 2. Even players who miss the cut at the Masters still walk away with a $10,000 check. 3. A 5-bedroom home near Augusta will rent for $30,000+ during Masters week, and brands often pay six figures for larger homes where they can host events. 4. The IRS has a special exemption in the tax code called the "Augusta Rule," allowing homeowners to rent out their homes for 14 days per year without paying taxes on the income. This rule was initially implemented for Augusta residents only but is now available to everyone in the United States. 5. The Masters will do $70 million in merchandise sales this week. That's... • $10 million per day • $1 million per hour • $16,000 per minute • $277 per second The merchandise is so popular because you can only buy it at Augusta (aka no online sales). 6. In 1931, Augusta National was purchased for $70,000— or an inflation-adjusted $1.4 million. However, the property is now valued at over $200 million. 7. Augusta National has quietly been expanding over the years, spending more than $200 million (through an array of LLCs) to buy 100+ properties. Augusta has purchased strip malls, restaurants, apartment complexes, and homes, adding 270+ acres to the property and often paying 3-4x their value. 8. Augusta National is debuting "Map & Flag" at this year's tournament. The premium hospitality offering isn't even on the property — it was built in a strip mall down the street that Augusta acquired for $26 million in 2020 — yet they were able to charge $17,000 per ticket (+ week-long badges) and have completely sold out. 9. The concession stand food is wrapped in green packaging, so it can't be seen on TV if someone litters. 10. Someone once found a green jacket in a Canadian thrift store. They purchased the jacket for $5, and it later sold at auction for $140,000. 11. Magnolia Lane is exactly 330 yards long, with 61 trees on each side. 12. Augusta's clubhouse has a wine cellar with 30+ pages of the world's most exclusive wines. 13. Previous Masters champions gather every year for dinner on the Tuesday before the tournament. The previous year's winner gets to pick the menu, but he must also pay for the meal. 14. The Masters leaves millions on the table by giving away the broadcasting rights to ESPN and CBS for free. They do this to maintain complete control, handpicking advertisers, eliminating on-course signage, and only playing 3 to 4 minutes of commercials each hour. 15. Unlike most golf clubs, which are registered as non-profits, Augusta National is a for-profit corporation. This requires them to pay more taxes, but they do it anyway because it means they don't have to share their member list, income, holdings, or expansion plans. 16. More than 1,500 private jets will land in Augusta this week, paying about $3,000 in landing and parking fees. 17. Augusta has SubAir Systems under each green. This enables them to keep the greens consistent, sucking up water when it rains and adding moisture when it's hot. Also, when someone slipped a few years back, Augusta added SubAir systems under all the walkways. 18. Dwight D. Eisenhower is the only U.S. President to become a member at Augusta National. He never actually attended the Masters, but Eisenhower made 29 trips to the property, playing 210 rounds of golf, during his eight-year term as President. Even crazier, Augusta worked with the Secret Service to build him a safe place to stay, called Eisenhower Cabin, which is still used on the property today. That's it for today! Enjoy the tournament, and if you learned something from this post, follow me for more sports business content.

Joe Pompliano

2,107,599 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Scientists Social media hacks/politicians, and others seeking notoriety continue to say the people below who are missing/deceased have some sort of nexus. They even say the U.S. Government could be behind it. I am serious! That's what some say. It's just not true. Breaking down the cases 1 by 1 over the 3 to 4 year time frame alleged: Maiwald- 61 and Hicks- 59 both died of Natural causes per ME/Information from Obituaries 2 down Leureiro and Grillmar- They were murdered. Leureiro by the crazed Brown shooter who admitted to the murder later confirmed by LE. He didn't even have a clearance. He instructed about plasma for MIT for heaven's sake. Grillmair was 67. He didn't have clearance either. He taught about water vapor and infared processing. He was killed by a career criminal on a crime spree. 4 Down Jason Thomas, 46 No clearance. He was in the Bio-Med field. Likely killed himself, tragically, distraught over recent deaths in his family, according to loved ones. He was found in a lake. 5 Down Charles Eskridge died of suicide - Confirmed. No Clearance. He was a DNA analyst. 6 Down Melissa Casias was an Admin Assistant. No Clearance. Worked at Los Alamos that employs 18,000 people. She left everything behind and even reset her phone before she left. Suicide is suspected. 7 Down Anthony Chavez- 78. Suspected suicide. He left on foot leaving his personal effects behind and was an avid hiker. 78 is a high suicide catagory for males. He developed tools for planet exploration. He retired clear back in 2017, his clearance long expired. 8 Down Steve Garcia, 35. He handled procurement for the National Nuclear Security Administration. He had a clearance. He is believed to have killed himself. He left alone and with his effects with a gun. LE says he was a danger to himself per their investigation. Suspected suicide. Still missing. 9 Down Monica Reza-Jet Propulsion Laboratory. She had a clearance. She developed a special metal back in 1999/2000 time frame. She went hiking in a group. The last hiker to see her has been questioned. This is a probable hiking accident. She didn't mess with aliens. JPL employs 4,500 and NASA employs about 14,000. Again she was hiking with a group. 10 Down Finally, the man who ignited the unbelievable narrative from SM people trying to make some sort of name for themselves that there is some conspiracy to take down US scientists (most of the people in question aren't even scientists): Retired Maj. General William McCasland had health issues that he told his wife he wasn't sure if he wanted to live with. He left his home in the morning with nothing but his ID, and revolver, amd hiking boots. He wore prescription glasses and need them to see. He didn't take them or his phone or anything else. He worked at the highest levels at JLP 13 years ago. He and Reza both worked for JLP at one time decades ago, but he was levels above her. There is no conspiracy to knock of these folks. There is no connectivity, few even had a clearance, and the deaths and disappearances of most of these folks are logically explained. Occam's Razor P.S. If you want to follow a much more statistically interesting set of deaths and missing, look into Long Haul Drivers. I know, not sexy enough. P.S. Glad the government will look into this to put this to rest. #scientists #Conspiracytheorists P.S. Please don't reelect a guy who does 0 research before opening his mouth.
0:48

Scientists Social media hacks/politicians, and others seeking notoriety continue to say the people below who are missing/deceased have some sort of nexus. They even say the U.S. Government could be behind it. I am serious! That's what some say. It's just not true. Breaking down the cases 1 by 1 over the 3 to 4 year time frame alleged: Maiwald- 61 and Hicks- 59 both died of Natural causes per ME/Information from Obituaries 2 down Leureiro and Grillmar- They were murdered. Leureiro by the crazed Brown shooter who admitted to the murder later confirmed by LE. He didn't even have a clearance. He instructed about plasma for MIT for heaven's sake. Grillmair was 67. He didn't have clearance either. He taught about water vapor and infared processing. He was killed by a career criminal on a crime spree. 4 Down Jason Thomas, 46 No clearance. He was in the Bio-Med field. Likely killed himself, tragically, distraught over recent deaths in his family, according to loved ones. He was found in a lake. 5 Down Charles Eskridge died of suicide - Confirmed. No Clearance. He was a DNA analyst. 6 Down Melissa Casias was an Admin Assistant. No Clearance. Worked at Los Alamos that employs 18,000 people. She left everything behind and even reset her phone before she left. Suicide is suspected. 7 Down Anthony Chavez- 78. Suspected suicide. He left on foot leaving his personal effects behind and was an avid hiker. 78 is a high suicide catagory for males. He developed tools for planet exploration. He retired clear back in 2017, his clearance long expired. 8 Down Steve Garcia, 35. He handled procurement for the National Nuclear Security Administration. He had a clearance. He is believed to have killed himself. He left alone and with his effects with a gun. LE says he was a danger to himself per their investigation. Suspected suicide. Still missing. 9 Down Monica Reza-Jet Propulsion Laboratory. She had a clearance. She developed a special metal back in 1999/2000 time frame. She went hiking in a group. The last hiker to see her has been questioned. This is a probable hiking accident. She didn't mess with aliens. JPL employs 4,500 and NASA employs about 14,000. Again she was hiking with a group. 10 Down Finally, the man who ignited the unbelievable narrative from SM people trying to make some sort of name for themselves that there is some conspiracy to take down US scientists (most of the people in question aren't even scientists): Retired Maj. General William McCasland had health issues that he told his wife he wasn't sure if he wanted to live with. He left his home in the morning with nothing but his ID, and revolver, amd hiking boots. He wore prescription glasses and need them to see. He didn't take them or his phone or anything else. He worked at the highest levels at JLP 13 years ago. He and Reza both worked for JLP at one time decades ago, but he was levels above her. There is no conspiracy to knock of these folks. There is no connectivity, few even had a clearance, and the deaths and disappearances of most of these folks are logically explained. Occam's Razor P.S. If you want to follow a much more statistically interesting set of deaths and missing, look into Long Haul Drivers. I know, not sexy enough. P.S. Glad the government will look into this to put this to rest. #scientists #Conspiracytheorists P.S. Please don't reelect a guy who does 0 research before opening his mouth.

Jennifer Coffindaffer

29,466 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
13:03

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

399,806 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Yesterday in Parliament we debated the budgetary allocation for the Ministry of Women’s Affairs, Children and Social Empowerment. Rape and sexual violence against women and children was heavily discussed. Unfortunately, instead of proposing solutions, many of my fellow Parliamentarians only politicised the situation. Politicisation of rape does not address the conditions that lead to rape or deal with its terrible aftermath. The solution is to take definitive steps to solve it, which is why I am campaigning for: 1. Comprehensive Sexuality Education for children and young adults - that can empower them to take control and make informed decisions on their sexuality and relationships. 2. Decriminalisation of abortion - so that women are empowered to make decisions on their bodies. Reports from the Health Ministry show that about 650 unsafe abortions take place everyday. This means that our laws are putting the lives of 250,000 women at risk every year. 3. Increased Judicial Safety for women and children - so that our justice system doesn’t penalise the very people that need its protection. 4. Speedy resolution of cases pertaining to rape and sexual violence - The average child rape case can take 7-10 years to resolve, leaving the victims in limbo and without any justice. Sri Lanka’s statistics on sexual violence against women and children are alarming. - Every 2 hours a child is sexually molested. - Every 90 minutes, a woman is raped. - 62% of women killed were murdered by either an intimate partner, ex-partner or family member. A 2013 UN Survey on Male Sexual violence in SL showed that 15% of men interviewed admitted to having raped at least once, with the majority who admitted to rape saying they did so because they were entitled to. 20% of those respondents admitted to raping for fun or out of boredom. In this country, we have a history of safeguarding oppressors, and it is much the same with rape or sexual violence, where police tend to have more sympathy with the rapists than the victims. This is reflected in the chilling statistic that only 3% of those who admitted to rape in the above study were arrested. And, according to a 2021 University of Kelaniya study, only 5% of cases relating to women murdered between 2013-2017 have concluded. These figures should make us ashamed and alarmed. Which is why I am committed to support reforms to create a safer and more just country for our women and children.
8:40

Yesterday in Parliament we debated the budgetary allocation for the Ministry of Women’s Affairs, Children and Social Empowerment. Rape and sexual violence against women and children was heavily discussed. Unfortunately, instead of proposing solutions, many of my fellow Parliamentarians only politicised the situation. Politicisation of rape does not address the conditions that lead to rape or deal with its terrible aftermath. The solution is to take definitive steps to solve it, which is why I am campaigning for: 1. Comprehensive Sexuality Education for children and young adults - that can empower them to take control and make informed decisions on their sexuality and relationships. 2. Decriminalisation of abortion - so that women are empowered to make decisions on their bodies. Reports from the Health Ministry show that about 650 unsafe abortions take place everyday. This means that our laws are putting the lives of 250,000 women at risk every year. 3. Increased Judicial Safety for women and children - so that our justice system doesn’t penalise the very people that need its protection. 4. Speedy resolution of cases pertaining to rape and sexual violence - The average child rape case can take 7-10 years to resolve, leaving the victims in limbo and without any justice. Sri Lanka’s statistics on sexual violence against women and children are alarming. - Every 2 hours a child is sexually molested. - Every 90 minutes, a woman is raped. - 62% of women killed were murdered by either an intimate partner, ex-partner or family member. A 2013 UN Survey on Male Sexual violence in SL showed that 15% of men interviewed admitted to having raped at least once, with the majority who admitted to rape saying they did so because they were entitled to. 20% of those respondents admitted to raping for fun or out of boredom. In this country, we have a history of safeguarding oppressors, and it is much the same with rape or sexual violence, where police tend to have more sympathy with the rapists than the victims. This is reflected in the chilling statistic that only 3% of those who admitted to rape in the above study were arrested. And, according to a 2021 University of Kelaniya study, only 5% of cases relating to women murdered between 2013-2017 have concluded. These figures should make us ashamed and alarmed. Which is why I am committed to support reforms to create a safer and more just country for our women and children.

Jeevan Thondaman

13,359 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

$AMD | Folks are asking why there is a massive disconnect here between $800 and $465 🧵 May be this should help, and most subscribers and followers already know. 1. I don't offer Financial Advice! 2. We have so many individual and institutional bears who made millions selling AI bubble fear porn and think they are smarter than the best CEOs in the world. Hence most semiconductor stocks are trading at 15–25x forward P/E even with massive growth, AMD included. I actually believe this is healthy, keeping valuations in check to give new investors better return. Would u prefer to invest at 15-25x fwd P/E or 30-50x fwd P/E? 3. Guidance is issued by the quarter, so we will only know officially in November 2026 for that biggest inflection in Q4. 4. Institutions are rotating back and forth between value stocks and growth stocks; out of AI, into AI stocks; one week risk-on, another week risk-off. They are trading much more frequently now. 5. Most AMD analysts are becoming more and more bullish, but projections and forecasts are still 30–50% lower than what management has provided so far. We all know Dr. Su is the queen of sandbagging, so adjust accordingly. This is the first time I heard her tell analysts directly on the Q&A that their estimates are too low. 6. Institutions are accepting that agentic AI is going to have a severe shortage and that it will also take time for TSMC to scale. The largest CPU ramp will be #1 AMD, then #2 NVIDIA from Q4 2026. So institutions have some months to play around and see what the Federal Reserve is saying. TSMC is scaling 11-15 2nm Fabs at the fastest pace since its inception btw!!! 7. TSMC does not really disclose customers' allocation, so most of us are projecting from available data, which makes growth 10x more difficult to predict. However, AMD is TSMC’s third largest customer and is on track to become the second largest. The largest CoWoS allocation increase for 2027 is AMD, per a Morgan Stanley note. 8. Just because I gave out my personal PT does not mean it will get there. It may be higher or lower. I just know that even at $800 it would be trading at 30–35x FY2027 P/E, which is reasonable for triple-digit growth, in my opinion. A few potential rate hikes could lower forward P/E a bit, but they will not be able to stop the J-curve quarters and years from AMD over the next 3–5 years. 9. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, so semiconductor stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now that yields rise monthly to build out data centers. That is the reality most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks lending the capital to hyperscalers, AI labs, and neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on the AI industrial revolution. 10. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, hence Semi stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now, that yield rises weekly/monthly to build out Data Centers. It is the reality that most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks that are lending the capital for Hyperscalers , AI Labs and Neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on AI Industrial revolution:)) 9. We just had one of the biggest deleveraging events in semis that blew up many accounts from the U.S. to South Korea. 10. People call me crazy in 2024-2025 to say AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by end of 2026, we werent really that far off $620 2 months ago:)). Again, I been covering AMD for years, and Agentic AI demand is going to pump CPU demand by 50-100x vs 2024-2025. We are only 6 months in, and Agents are now using 14x more tokens than Human. Keep in mind, we are only 3-5 agents on average across all Enterprises. We are just so early. Medium-Long Term, Hyperscalers, AI labs and Enterprises will scale to hundreds and thousands of Agents doing tasks 24/7 using various AI Models from cheap to most expensive. People called me crazy in 2024–2025 for saying AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by the end of 2026. We weren’t really that far off $620 two months ago. Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
0:59

$AMD | Folks are asking why there is a massive disconnect here between $800 and $465 🧵 May be this should help, and most subscribers and followers already know. 1. I don't offer Financial Advice! 2. We have so many individual and institutional bears who made millions selling AI bubble fear porn and think they are smarter than the best CEOs in the world. Hence most semiconductor stocks are trading at 15–25x forward P/E even with massive growth, AMD included. I actually believe this is healthy, keeping valuations in check to give new investors better return. Would u prefer to invest at 15-25x fwd P/E or 30-50x fwd P/E? 3. Guidance is issued by the quarter, so we will only know officially in November 2026 for that biggest inflection in Q4. 4. Institutions are rotating back and forth between value stocks and growth stocks; out of AI, into AI stocks; one week risk-on, another week risk-off. They are trading much more frequently now. 5. Most AMD analysts are becoming more and more bullish, but projections and forecasts are still 30–50% lower than what management has provided so far. We all know Dr. Su is the queen of sandbagging, so adjust accordingly. This is the first time I heard her tell analysts directly on the Q&A that their estimates are too low. 6. Institutions are accepting that agentic AI is going to have a severe shortage and that it will also take time for TSMC to scale. The largest CPU ramp will be #1 AMD, then #2 NVIDIA from Q4 2026. So institutions have some months to play around and see what the Federal Reserve is saying. TSMC is scaling 11-15 2nm Fabs at the fastest pace since its inception btw!!! 7. TSMC does not really disclose customers' allocation, so most of us are projecting from available data, which makes growth 10x more difficult to predict. However, AMD is TSMC’s third largest customer and is on track to become the second largest. The largest CoWoS allocation increase for 2027 is AMD, per a Morgan Stanley note. 8. Just because I gave out my personal PT does not mean it will get there. It may be higher or lower. I just know that even at $800 it would be trading at 30–35x FY2027 P/E, which is reasonable for triple-digit growth, in my opinion. A few potential rate hikes could lower forward P/E a bit, but they will not be able to stop the J-curve quarters and years from AMD over the next 3–5 years. 9. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, so semiconductor stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now that yields rise monthly to build out data centers. That is the reality most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks lending the capital to hyperscalers, AI labs, and neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on the AI industrial revolution. 10. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, hence Semi stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now, that yield rises weekly/monthly to build out Data Centers. It is the reality that most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks that are lending the capital for Hyperscalers , AI Labs and Neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on AI Industrial revolution:)) 9. We just had one of the biggest deleveraging events in semis that blew up many accounts from the U.S. to South Korea. 10. People call me crazy in 2024-2025 to say AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by end of 2026, we werent really that far off $620 2 months ago:)). Again, I been covering AMD for years, and Agentic AI demand is going to pump CPU demand by 50-100x vs 2024-2025. We are only 6 months in, and Agents are now using 14x more tokens than Human. Keep in mind, we are only 3-5 agents on average across all Enterprises. We are just so early. Medium-Long Term, Hyperscalers, AI labs and Enterprises will scale to hundreds and thousands of Agents doing tasks 24/7 using various AI Models from cheap to most expensive. People called me crazy in 2024–2025 for saying AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by the end of 2026. We weren’t really that far off $620 two months ago. Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

51,024 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce

For years they told you stock picking was dead. "Just buy the index. Don't bother with research. The passive bid will carry you." I'm here to tell you that era is OVER. And the people who don't adjust are going to pay for it. The S&P 500 just broke below its 200 day moving average for the first time in 214 sessions. It's on pace for its fourth consecutive losing week. The Mag 7 which carried the entire market for 3 years are getting dismantled. Microsoft down 18% year to date. Amazon down 10%. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down 6% while the equal-weight S&P is outperforming. The rotation I've been calling for is here. R is for Rotation, not Recession. But here's what most people don't understand about passive investing, and why this unwind could be SAVAGE: The machine that drove prices up without caring about fundamentals is going to drive them down the same way. There's been no real price discovery in large-cap US equities for years. Money flowed in because money was flowing in. That's NOT investing. I saw the exact same dynamic in Japan in the 1980s. I ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund during that bubble. The Japanese market got to two-thirds of the entire non US equity index. Banks traded at 100x earnings, 10x book. The float was so tight you couldn't buy or sell ANYTHING in size without moving the market 20%. Jeremy Grantham, John Templeton - all the greats were screaming about it. They were early. But once the worm turned, it was fast. And the beautiful part was you didn't need to be a genius. You just had to avoid Japan and index everything else. Hit them where they ain't. That's where we are with US mega-cap tech right now. You don't need to make complicated bets. Just stop being concentrated in the same 7 stocks that everyone else owns. Step 1: switch your cap-weighted S&P into the equal-weight RSP. Overnight you cut your Mag 7 exposure from 35% to 0.2% per name. The equal weight has been winning all year. I think that continues. Step 2: look overseas. International markets have been outperforming the US in 2026. European equities, Japanese stocks, emerging markets - all cheaper, all under-owned, all benefiting from the capital rotation out of US tech. Step 3: get into real assets. Gold. Energy. Commodities. These are the sectors that perform when inflation is the dominant risk, which it is. Oil at $96 with a war in the Persian Gulf isn't going back to $50 regardless of what any politician promises. And step 4: if you have the stomach for it, there's a portfolio of overvalued garbage out there that's going to get cut in half. Companies with no earnings, no moat, and no reason to exist at current prices. The short side hasn't been this attractive since 2000. After years of the index crushing active managers, the tables have TURNED. Dispersion is widening. Fundamentals are starting to matter again. Stock picking isn't dead. IT WAS JUST SLEEPING
3:50

For years they told you stock picking was dead. "Just buy the index. Don't bother with research. The passive bid will carry you." I'm here to tell you that era is OVER. And the people who don't adjust are going to pay for it. The S&P 500 just broke below its 200 day moving average for the first time in 214 sessions. It's on pace for its fourth consecutive losing week. The Mag 7 which carried the entire market for 3 years are getting dismantled. Microsoft down 18% year to date. Amazon down 10%. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down 6% while the equal-weight S&P is outperforming. The rotation I've been calling for is here. R is for Rotation, not Recession. But here's what most people don't understand about passive investing, and why this unwind could be SAVAGE: The machine that drove prices up without caring about fundamentals is going to drive them down the same way. There's been no real price discovery in large-cap US equities for years. Money flowed in because money was flowing in. That's NOT investing. I saw the exact same dynamic in Japan in the 1980s. I ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund during that bubble. The Japanese market got to two-thirds of the entire non US equity index. Banks traded at 100x earnings, 10x book. The float was so tight you couldn't buy or sell ANYTHING in size without moving the market 20%. Jeremy Grantham, John Templeton - all the greats were screaming about it. They were early. But once the worm turned, it was fast. And the beautiful part was you didn't need to be a genius. You just had to avoid Japan and index everything else. Hit them where they ain't. That's where we are with US mega-cap tech right now. You don't need to make complicated bets. Just stop being concentrated in the same 7 stocks that everyone else owns. Step 1: switch your cap-weighted S&P into the equal-weight RSP. Overnight you cut your Mag 7 exposure from 35% to 0.2% per name. The equal weight has been winning all year. I think that continues. Step 2: look overseas. International markets have been outperforming the US in 2026. European equities, Japanese stocks, emerging markets - all cheaper, all under-owned, all benefiting from the capital rotation out of US tech. Step 3: get into real assets. Gold. Energy. Commodities. These are the sectors that perform when inflation is the dominant risk, which it is. Oil at $96 with a war in the Persian Gulf isn't going back to $50 regardless of what any politician promises. And step 4: if you have the stomach for it, there's a portfolio of overvalued garbage out there that's going to get cut in half. Companies with no earnings, no moat, and no reason to exist at current prices. The short side hasn't been this attractive since 2000. After years of the index crushing active managers, the tables have TURNED. Dispersion is widening. Fundamentals are starting to matter again. Stock picking isn't dead. IT WAS JUST SLEEPING

George Noble

116,409 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Leaking my biggest winners part 2: My most OFFENSIVE ad of all time? This was for Ecom Affiliate, a Security Camera offer. We were the only ones that managed to compete with a Melania and Elon deepfake affiliate, without crossing that line. This "dark lord" angle was the reason why. When selling ecom shit, the angle is everything. Finding one subset of the market that would buy the offer for a specific reason, and hyper targeting that ad. I was selling a security camera. Meaning at the core I was selling: Security. For me to sell security, I need to find a fear to sell security against. The ICE protests were all over the news at the time, and tne massive fear amongst conservatives at the time was ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. It was also a touchy topic so I knew engagement would be crazy. So like the disgusting vultures that we affiliates are, we decided to turn the chaos and political divide another country is going through into cold hard cash for ourselves. Here's how we did it: 1. I made the actor a military dude with camo face paint. Why? Because conservatives LOVE the military and believe everything they say. It also plain stops the scroll. 2. I included an absurdly fake statistics about how many homes are affected by "illegals" breaking in. 3. I said "the government is urging all patriots..." this is to provide authority, since the target market loves Trump. Patriots is self identification (us vs them). I ended up having to change this due to ad rejections and I instead said: "One of the top military commanders is urging", etc. 4. I reframed the product as a "military" camera (because these people love the military, camo etc.) designed to protect them until the "wall is built". 5. A little product demo section highlighting the benefits. 6. Note the language I'm using: "Patriots", "Great Nation", "Wall", etc. The entire ad appeals to a very specific avatar and speaks their language verbatim. 6. Price justification: "steep discount because that's how much they cost to produce" 7. Final little dagger to their fear bone to push them over the edge: "These animals could strike at any moment". Fear, division, familiar language. The most extreme close I could come up with. Last thing: The landing page was a quiz asking them if they're legal residents making them feel like they've earned the deal they're getting. That's all for today, I plan to share one more ad for this offer (super different angle), and 2 loan ads that make this ad look PC. Any preference around which one I should break down first?
0:58

Leaking my biggest winners part 2: My most OFFENSIVE ad of all time? This was for Ecom Affiliate, a Security Camera offer. We were the only ones that managed to compete with a Melania and Elon deepfake affiliate, without crossing that line. This "dark lord" angle was the reason why. When selling ecom shit, the angle is everything. Finding one subset of the market that would buy the offer for a specific reason, and hyper targeting that ad. I was selling a security camera. Meaning at the core I was selling: Security. For me to sell security, I need to find a fear to sell security against. The ICE protests were all over the news at the time, and tne massive fear amongst conservatives at the time was ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. It was also a touchy topic so I knew engagement would be crazy. So like the disgusting vultures that we affiliates are, we decided to turn the chaos and political divide another country is going through into cold hard cash for ourselves. Here's how we did it: 1. I made the actor a military dude with camo face paint. Why? Because conservatives LOVE the military and believe everything they say. It also plain stops the scroll. 2. I included an absurdly fake statistics about how many homes are affected by "illegals" breaking in. 3. I said "the government is urging all patriots..." this is to provide authority, since the target market loves Trump. Patriots is self identification (us vs them). I ended up having to change this due to ad rejections and I instead said: "One of the top military commanders is urging", etc. 4. I reframed the product as a "military" camera (because these people love the military, camo etc.) designed to protect them until the "wall is built". 5. A little product demo section highlighting the benefits. 6. Note the language I'm using: "Patriots", "Great Nation", "Wall", etc. The entire ad appeals to a very specific avatar and speaks their language verbatim. 6. Price justification: "steep discount because that's how much they cost to produce" 7. Final little dagger to their fear bone to push them over the edge: "These animals could strike at any moment". Fear, division, familiar language. The most extreme close I could come up with. Last thing: The landing page was a quiz asking them if they're legal residents making them feel like they've earned the deal they're getting. That's all for today, I plan to share one more ad for this offer (super different angle), and 2 loan ads that make this ad look PC. Any preference around which one I should break down first?

Jordan D

105,356 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce