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A remarkable 3.5˚C rise in central equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures is possible by November, shows new ECMWF, which would mark the strongest El Niño on record. Possible strength scenarios range from +2.8˚C to +4.3˚C, with sweeping consequences on global climate into 2027.

529,780 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Комментарии: 35

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

Both the traditional and relative indices are forecast to break El Niño records, ECMWF shows. This represents a notable strength increase compared to last month. The event may peak in December — not November — meaning the projections here would keep rising for another month.

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

Global temperatures look rather extraordinary later this year 🚀 Odds favor 2026 becoming the second warmest year on record, but there's a chance it could break the record set in 2024 if El Niño's strength reaches record heights.

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

El Niño will influence precipitation extremes. A moisture connection from the tropical Pacific to the U.S. during fall could drive flooding rainfall. Meanwhile, droughts are possible in the Caribbean, northern South America, West Pacific, India, Indonesia and Australia.

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

Model updates coming out over the next week are likely to follow ECMWF's lead of an even stronger El Niño prediction. This is mostly because of a new, potent westerly wind burst unfolding in the Pacific, pushing yet more warm water toward the east. Stay tuned!

Фото профиля Scott D Rippe
Scott D Rippe3 месяцев назад

Ben, I'm wondering about the COMBINED global impact of the the historic El Nino and the anomalous AMOC-induced cold blob in the north Atlantic. Are there analogs for that setup?

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

Not sure. The forcing signal from El Niño dwarfs just about everything else. I suppose extra cold water in the Atlantic will just help boost El Niño.

Фото профиля funkanelli
funkanelli3 месяцев назад

<rubs hands> this is perfect....now release the Murder Hornets, Lyme disease and bottled Ebola/Hantavirus!! Run Humans....RUNNNN!!!

Фото профиля David Wiebe
David Wiebe3 месяцев назад

For all you voters who aren't big on science, this is not a good thing.

Фото профиля Pozytyw
Pozytyw3 месяцев назад

Buhahahaha..

Фото профиля loloal1234
loloal12343 месяцев назад

And intelligent people would say it was caused by the variations in core fluid dynamics not carbon dioxide

Фото профиля gatg
gatg3 месяцев назад

We've heard it all before. It's getting boring.

Фото профиля Moderate Guest 🌻
Moderate Guest 🌻3 месяцев назад

Could ai servers in the water in Asia be progressing that temperature and in effect strengthening El Niño?

Фото профиля TBALLER
TBALLER3 месяцев назад

I’m seeing Ice Age is coming and then a 7 degree increase in the same day. Pick a struggle Earth.

Фото профиля We will remember
We will remember3 месяцев назад

Ok, hasnt been a significant increase in one hundred years. This will not happen this time either. Go back k to comic con

Фото профиля Wild Friends
Wild Friends3 месяцев назад

A record-breaking El Niño could severely disrupt global weather and bird migration patterns. Keep an eye on your local skies for unusual sightings

Фото профиля Gossamer
Gossamer3 месяцев назад

RED!!!!!!!11!!!!!!!!

Фото профиля Infinitium
Infinitium3 месяцев назад

@grok what are the implications of this weather for the Mid-Atlantic states in the USA

Фото профиля Heck Johnson
Heck Johnson3 месяцев назад

Inshallah upstate ny gets a dry winter this year

Фото профиля Camilo Moreno
Camilo Moreno3 месяцев назад

Thanks for the updates, Ben! What are your thoughts on the El Niño 1+2 zone and what effect might the South Pacific anticyclone have in the comin months?

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

Observed conditions now are running near the upper end of what was predicted months ago. Objectively, the guidance is not running too hot.

Фото профиля artenis
artenis3 месяцев назад

Je prédis une vague de froid extrême dans les 6 prochains mois avec tous les événements actuels et à venir qui s’accumulent.

Фото профиля Michael
Michael3 месяцев назад

Yeah, you care to tell my apartment complex owner in Vancouver, WA (run by private equity bros from Texas) to let us have window air conditioners instead of these shitty and expensive portable AC units?

Фото профиля Orgen Musk
Orgen Musk3 месяцев назад

boomers will say "turn on the AC"

Фото профиля Omar ClimateSage
Omar ClimateSage3 месяцев назад

+3.5°C of Pacific warming is staggering. Knock-on effects into 2027 will hit agriculture, hydro, and peak electricity loads. This is why net zero targets require rapid action.

Фото профиля luziadossantos
luziadossantos3 месяцев назад

Imagem assustadora, a boca do inferno🔥🔥

Фото профиля 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐥
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐥3 месяцев назад

@grok will this make California get more rain?

Фото профиля daheffirl
daheffirl3 месяцев назад

Possible or likely? 2 very different outcomes

Фото профиля Rolf Philip
Rolf Philip3 месяцев назад

@Mina58614 Very interessting

Фото профиля MTK
MTK3 месяцев назад

@capitalweather

Фото профиля Mav
Mav3 месяцев назад

U.K. has winter weather all year round now !Will it mean warm weather for us

Фото профиля Ariel Gonzalez
Ariel Gonzalez3 месяцев назад

@grok Does this make hurricanes less likely this year?

Фото профиля John Glueck
John Glueck3 месяцев назад

EURO has been running HOT all year.

Фото профиля Ben Noll
Ben Noll3 месяцев назад

Hmm, I'm not so sure about that. The observed conditions now are on the upper-end of the ensemble distribution from the model run in February.

Фото профиля Ana
Ana3 месяцев назад

The Western edge of Scandinavia is getting colder every year in the last 5 years.

Фото профиля RoyBatty
RoyBatty3 месяцев назад

SI nel 2030 #MoriremoTutti per LIQUEFAZIONE🤡

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