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Ackman views $MSFT as having an "impossible to disrupt" position in enterprise software. The base Microsoft 365 package has 450M users at a very low cost per seat, roughly $200 per customer. It would be nearly impossible for an enterprise to replace these various components with 3P vendors, even...

731,917 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

35 条评论

David Daglio 的头像
David Daglio3 个月前

$MSFT has one of the worst user experiences, G suite is nearly free and excel and power point have become middleware with Claude. Seems like their best days are behind them.

Retired Trader 🇺🇸 的头像
Retired Trader 🇺🇸3 个月前

The only reason people still use office 365 is because it takes you like 2 days of digging to try to cancel it.

Dave 的头像
Dave3 个月前

Yes definitely listen to Ackman, in addition to being an expert twitter essay writer he's also a world class investor

Humble Billionaire 的头像
Humble Billionaire3 个月前

Dude is telling me Microsoft is difficult to replace when his face is clipped on MS Teams

truke 的头像
truke3 个月前

Imagine being @BillAckman and thinking it's still going be humans running companies in the future. Microsoft doesn't have a moat.

Nostradamus 的头像
Nostradamus3 个月前

Wrong. There are already cheaper alternatives to the 365 package. Microsoft has Windows. That’s it. Someone serious comes along to challenge that and it’s over.

Insider Hawk 的头像
Insider Hawk3 个月前

And you can get $MSFT right now for far less than two insiders paid: +$1,986,750 on Feb 18 (John Stanton). Price: $397.35 +$1,450,221 on Dec 12, 2025 (Brad Smith). Price: $377.46

the Knicks are perfect 的头像
the Knicks are perfect3 个月前

This pitch wouldn't land. A 2nd round interview at his own fund lol.

Mike Horton 的头像
Mike Horton3 个月前

Microsoft gobble your proprietary data. Don't forget they own LinkedIn and GitHub too. Wish web3 bros would solve this problem instead of building more trading platforms.

A.J. Button 的头像
A.J. Button3 个月前

Microsoft's P good. I'm writing my next Seeking Article on it. It will be slightly bullish. Not so bullish I'm reading to buy just yet, but I think those buying will do at least OK.

jimbo 的头像
jimbo3 个月前

Yea.. impossible to replace Microsoft PowerPoint, Word, and Excel Sure man

Noorx 的头像
Noorx3 个月前

This bloody crooked cockroach deserves all the crashes coming his way

Dhruva Pandey 的头像
Dhruva Pandey3 个月前

One think @BillAckman is missing is Microsoft has the most inferior products but greatest of distribution. I think the distribution moat is going away to people who provide AI services Open Ai and Anthropic. We will not stop here, Even the OS will AI centric not windows in future. Microsoft won't be able to make anything.

Makaroni 的头像
Makaroni3 个月前

$200/seat is insane lock-in math good luck telling 450M users to learn a new tool lmao 💀

A|B 🇺🇸 的头像
A|B 🇺🇸3 个月前

Google is coming! M365 is awful just ask any enterprise.

Sven Rusticus 的头像
Sven Rusticus3 个月前

Office combined with Copilot that’s getting better day by day is an extremely powerful tool for larger companies. I can see that Copilot is trusted to use by all our clients. It’s important to know exactly how things work and that the things you do can be tracked and recovered if lost. We are buying more from Microsoft this year than last year!!

Lion88 的头像
Lion883 个月前

He a fake ass trader. He’s a scam artist. @BillAckman = dirtbag rat

Chris 的头像
Chris3 个月前

how can a guy that rich not have a pro background that doesnt make his head shrink when he moves it?

Jeff 的头像
Jeff3 个月前

Unless of course we start to see massive layoffs. Like the ones at amazon, meta, and oracle.

Sgt.Hummus 的头像
Sgt.Hummus3 个月前

The problem is not “disruption”. People are missing the story. The problem is the number of seats is declining due to AI automation and layoffs. Sure, there will be disruption. But declining seats is primary. All while pissing away FCF.

Nick Vespa 的头像
Nick Vespa3 个月前

He's spot on. Enterprise customers for years have looked at moving off Microsoft products, but the cost (not just software costs) to move off are prohibitive. Think mainframes and Lotus Notes. For example, Access is so pervasive that customers just live with the fact that the problem is so big they just have to live with it.

Chopin 的头像
Chopin3 个月前

Says the guy whose fund is down 24% this year. Why’re we listening to him.

Regime Card 的头像
Regime Card3 个月前

Are you dumping on us Ackman? @BillAckman

Felipe Brandão 的头像
Felipe Brandão3 个月前

If only people knew how this guy made his money, everyone would stop listening.

TheTraderPhil 的头像
TheTraderPhil3 个月前

Exactly, and $MSFT just remains way too bullish...

Capitano Jacko 的头像
Capitano Jacko3 个月前

Sometimes it’s just that simple

Shai Hulud 的头像
Shai Hulud3 个月前

And yet it could fall 43% still.

Benjamin Hatton 的头像
Benjamin Hatton3 个月前

True, all the people that explained that Teams sucked and wouldn’t catch on are ripping on Copilot, which is used fifty times a day by regular workers. Microsoft is VHS ing AI like they did everything else.

John Dough 的头像
John Dough3 个月前

Hack-man getting schooled

DPR Gator 🐊 的头像
DPR Gator 🐊3 个月前

@DeepInference 👀

Thomas | Besser Börse 的头像
Thomas | Besser Börse3 个月前

Benni @cleverhandeln, bist in guter Gesellschaft was $MSFT angeht.

SportsFan34 的头像
SportsFan343 个月前

He’s right but the chart looks like dog ass. Until that changes it’s not really a long

John Downs 的头像
John Downs3 个月前

The question I’m wondering is if the prediction in markets is in a drastic decrease in number of users due to AI agents. Normally, someone may hire a new employee and thus add a license…but if you don’t need a new employee and scale individuals with AI agents, revenue ⬇️

The AI Therapist 的头像
The AI Therapist3 个月前

Ackman's not wrong on switching costs. He's wrong about what gets disrupted. Seat-based SaaS is the category under threat. 450M users are just 450M targets for an agent.

Econocat 的头像
Econocat3 个月前

AI agents have no use for MS Office

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