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Ackman views $MSFT as having an "impossible to disrupt" position in enterprise software. The base Microsoft 365 package has 450M users at a very low cost per seat, roughly $200 per customer. It would be nearly impossible for an enterprise to replace these various components with 3P vendors, even... show more

CapexAndChill

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731,917 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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35 Kommentare

Profilbild von David Daglio

David Dagliovor 3 Monaten

$MSFT has one of the worst user experiences, G suite is nearly free and excel and power point have become middleware with Claude. Seems like their best days are behind them.

Profilbild von Retired Trader 🇺🇸

Retired Trader 🇺🇸vor 3 Monaten

The only reason people still use office 365 is because it takes you like 2 days of digging to try to cancel it.

Profilbild von Dave

Davevor 3 Monaten

Yes definitely listen to Ackman, in addition to being an expert twitter essay writer he's also a world class investor

Profilbild von Humble Billionaire

Humble Billionairevor 3 Monaten

Dude is telling me Microsoft is difficult to replace when his face is clipped on MS Teams

Profilbild von truke

trukevor 3 Monaten

Imagine being @BillAckman and thinking it's still going be humans running companies in the future. Microsoft doesn't have a moat.

Profilbild von Nostradamus

Nostradamusvor 3 Monaten

Wrong. There are already cheaper alternatives to the 365 package. Microsoft has Windows. That’s it. Someone serious comes along to challenge that and it’s over.

Profilbild von Insider Hawk

Insider Hawkvor 3 Monaten

And you can get $MSFT right now for far less than two insiders paid: +$1,986,750 on Feb 18 (John Stanton). Price: $397.35 +$1,450,221 on Dec 12, 2025 (Brad Smith). Price: $377.46

Profilbild von the Knicks are perfect

the Knicks are perfectvor 3 Monaten

This pitch wouldn't land. A 2nd round interview at his own fund lol.

Profilbild von Mike Horton

Mike Hortonvor 3 Monaten

Microsoft gobble your proprietary data. Don't forget they own LinkedIn and GitHub too. Wish web3 bros would solve this problem instead of building more trading platforms.

Profilbild von A.J. Button

A.J. Buttonvor 3 Monaten

Microsoft's P good. I'm writing my next Seeking Article on it. It will be slightly bullish. Not so bullish I'm reading to buy just yet, but I think those buying will do at least OK.

Profilbild von jimbo

jimbovor 3 Monaten

Yea.. impossible to replace Microsoft PowerPoint, Word, and Excel Sure man

Profilbild von Noorx

Noorxvor 3 Monaten

This bloody crooked cockroach deserves all the crashes coming his way

Profilbild von Dhruva Pandey

Dhruva Pandeyvor 3 Monaten

One think @BillAckman is missing is Microsoft has the most inferior products but greatest of distribution. I think the distribution moat is going away to people who provide AI services Open Ai and Anthropic. We will not stop here, Even the OS will AI centric not windows in future. Microsoft won't be able to make anything.

Profilbild von Makaroni

Makaronivor 3 Monaten

$200/seat is insane lock-in math good luck telling 450M users to learn a new tool lmao 💀

Profilbild von A|B 🇺🇸

A|B 🇺🇸vor 3 Monaten

Google is coming! M365 is awful just ask any enterprise.

Profilbild von Sven Rusticus

Sven Rusticusvor 3 Monaten

Office combined with Copilot that’s getting better day by day is an extremely powerful tool for larger companies. I can see that Copilot is trusted to use by all our clients. It’s important to know exactly how things work and that the things you do can be tracked and recovered if lost. We are buying more from Microsoft this year than last year!!

Profilbild von Lion88

Lion88vor 3 Monaten

He a fake ass trader. He’s a scam artist. @BillAckman = dirtbag rat

Profilbild von Chris

Chrisvor 3 Monaten

how can a guy that rich not have a pro background that doesnt make his head shrink when he moves it?

Profilbild von Jeff

Jeffvor 3 Monaten

Unless of course we start to see massive layoffs. Like the ones at amazon, meta, and oracle.

Profilbild von Sgt.Hummus

Sgt.Hummusvor 3 Monaten

The problem is not “disruption”. People are missing the story. The problem is the number of seats is declining due to AI automation and layoffs. Sure, there will be disruption. But declining seats is primary. All while pissing away FCF.

Profilbild von Nick Vespa

Nick Vespavor 3 Monaten

He's spot on. Enterprise customers for years have looked at moving off Microsoft products, but the cost (not just software costs) to move off are prohibitive. Think mainframes and Lotus Notes. For example, Access is so pervasive that customers just live with the fact that the problem is so big they just have to live with it.

Profilbild von Chopin

Chopinvor 3 Monaten

Says the guy whose fund is down 24% this year. Why’re we listening to him.

Profilbild von Regime Card

Regime Cardvor 3 Monaten

Are you dumping on us Ackman? @BillAckman

Profilbild von Felipe Brandão

Felipe Brandãovor 3 Monaten

If only people knew how this guy made his money, everyone would stop listening.

Profilbild von TheTraderPhil

TheTraderPhilvor 3 Monaten

Exactly, and $MSFT just remains way too bullish...

Profilbild von Capitano Jacko

Capitano Jackovor 3 Monaten

Sometimes it’s just that simple

Profilbild von Shai Hulud

Shai Huludvor 3 Monaten

And yet it could fall 43% still.

Profilbild von Benjamin Hatton

Benjamin Hattonvor 3 Monaten

True, all the people that explained that Teams sucked and wouldn’t catch on are ripping on Copilot, which is used fifty times a day by regular workers. Microsoft is VHS ing AI like they did everything else.

Profilbild von John Dough

John Doughvor 3 Monaten

Hack-man getting schooled

Profilbild von DPR Gator 🐊

DPR Gator 🐊vor 3 Monaten

@DeepInference 👀

Profilbild von Thomas | Besser Börse

Thomas | Besser Börsevor 3 Monaten

Benni @cleverhandeln, bist in guter Gesellschaft was $MSFT angeht.

Profilbild von SportsFan34

SportsFan34vor 3 Monaten

He’s right but the chart looks like dog ass. Until that changes it’s not really a long

Profilbild von John Downs

John Downsvor 3 Monaten

The question I’m wondering is if the prediction in markets is in a drastic decrease in number of users due to AI agents. Normally, someone may hire a new employee and thus add a license…but if you don’t need a new employee and scale individuals with AI agents, revenue ⬇️

Profilbild von The AI Therapist

The AI Therapistvor 3 Monaten

Ackman's not wrong on switching costs. He's wrong about what gets disrupted. Seat-based SaaS is the category under threat. 450M users are just 450M targets for an agent.

Profilbild von Econocat

Econocatvor 3 Monaten

AI agents have no use for MS Office

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Milk Road AI

282,090 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

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prediction from Chamath Palihapitiya : 95% of enterprise software running in production today will be rewritten in the next 3 years. AI made rewriting cheaper than maintaining. for 30 years the ROI on rebuilding software was brutal. a 7-figure build. a 2-year timeline. 60% chance of failure. executives chose maintenance every time, even as costs compounded. AI just flipped that equation. the moats that mattered for 30 years in enterprise software are about to collapse. first movers will own the new infrastructure. laggards will be the ones still paying maintenance fees to vendors that can't explain their own code. take a look at your own maintenance line item and ask what an AI-native rewrite would cost instead. reach out to us to learn about what use cases we've solved across healthcare/life science, government, manufacturing, & energy: [email protected]

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274,565 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Today, Box is announcing major new AI agent capabilities to let customers tap into the full value of their unstructured data. First, we’re announcing all new updates to the Box AI Studio to make it even easier to build AI agents that tap into your enterprise content for any job function, business process, or industry specific use case. We are also expanding our set of foundational agents that customers will be able to use to work with their enterprise content, including new features like search and research on unstructured data. Next, we’re announcing Box Extract to enable customers to use AI agents seamlessly for complex data extraction from any type of document or content. This makes it easier than ever to pull out data from contracts, invoices, research data, marketing assets, medical charts, and more. Finally, we’re introducing Box Automate, a new workflow automation solution within Box that lets you deploy AI agents across enterprise content-centric workflows. With Box Automate, you can design your business process in a simple drag and drop builder and then drop in AI agents at any step in the process. This ensures agents execute tasks at the right steps in a workflow every time. Best of all, our AI agents and workflow tools are designed to work across any system our customers work within, whether it’s leveraging pre-built integrations, Box APIs, or the new Box MCP Server. Ultimately, all of these capabilities come together to transform how companies can work with their enterprise content. Software has historically only been good at automating work that deals with structured data, which is why ERP, CRM, and HR systems have been mainstays of enterprise software for so long. The data in these systems fits neatly into a database, and the workflows are very ripe for automation. But it turns out most of the work in the world deals with unstructured data. It’s ideating through research documents, working with a client on contracts, reviewing details for a new product launch, looking at a patient’s healthcare record to make a diagnosis, working through due diligence documents for an M&A deal, and so on. For the first time ever, we can begin to bring all new insights and automation to this work with AI agents. At Box, we’re incredibly excited to be on this journey to help customers transform how they work with their most important data.

Today, Box is announcing major new AI agent capabilities to let customers tap into the full value of their unstructured data. First, we’re announcing all new updates to the Box AI Studio to make it even easier to build AI agents that tap into your enterprise content for any job function, business process, or industry specific use case. We are also expanding our set of foundational agents that customers will be able to use to work with their enterprise content, including new features like search and research on unstructured data. Next, we’re announcing Box Extract to enable customers to use AI agents seamlessly for complex data extraction from any type of document or content. This makes it easier than ever to pull out data from contracts, invoices, research data, marketing assets, medical charts, and more. Finally, we’re introducing Box Automate, a new workflow automation solution within Box that lets you deploy AI agents across enterprise content-centric workflows. With Box Automate, you can design your business process in a simple drag and drop builder and then drop in AI agents at any step in the process. This ensures agents execute tasks at the right steps in a workflow every time. Best of all, our AI agents and workflow tools are designed to work across any system our customers work within, whether it’s leveraging pre-built integrations, Box APIs, or the new Box MCP Server. Ultimately, all of these capabilities come together to transform how companies can work with their enterprise content. Software has historically only been good at automating work that deals with structured data, which is why ERP, CRM, and HR systems have been mainstays of enterprise software for so long. The data in these systems fits neatly into a database, and the workflows are very ripe for automation. But it turns out most of the work in the world deals with unstructured data. It’s ideating through research documents, working with a client on contracts, reviewing details for a new product launch, looking at a patient’s healthcare record to make a diagnosis, working through due diligence documents for an M&A deal, and so on. For the first time ever, we can begin to bring all new insights and automation to this work with AI agents. At Box, we’re incredibly excited to be on this journey to help customers transform how they work with their most important data.

Aaron Levie

91,863 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Today we’re partnering with AWS to launch Superblocks 3.0: the secure way for employees to vibe code production enterprise software. In a single prompt, Superblocks can replace million dollar SaaS, while IT & Security stay in control. OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing new models with advanced cyber attack capability and vibe coding is every company's achilles heel: > Personal Replit accounts store untracked customer data. > Lovable prototypes with your data open to the public internet. > Claude on the desktop pulls malicious packages. How Superblocks 3.0 works: 1. Superblocks Builds: Import vibe coded prototypes. Model routing picks the best frontier or open source model per task. Saves up to 30% on token costs. 2. Superblocks Secures: A swarm of security agents work like a real human team to find and fix vulnerabilities. 3. Superblocks Deploys: Unlike consumer vibe coding tools that send your data to their cloud, Superblocks deploys the application, database, and AI inference securely inside your private AWS environment. Superblocks 3.0 is trusted across enterprises like Instacart, Benchling, and even banks and social networks with the most stringent security requirements. Book a demo here: Everyone says, “AI is replacing SaaS”, yet find me a Fortune 500 company that has vibe coded its own CRM instead of using Salesforce. That changes today. To celebrate our launch, we're building 1,000 enterprise apps for free. Comment a SaaS tool you hate and why, and we'll reply with an enterprise-grade replacement.

Today we’re partnering with AWS to launch Superblocks 3.0: the secure way for employees to vibe code production enterprise software. In a single prompt, Superblocks can replace million dollar SaaS, while IT & Security stay in control. OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing new models with advanced cyber attack capability and vibe coding is every company's achilles heel: > Personal Replit accounts store untracked customer data. > Lovable prototypes with your data open to the public internet. > Claude on the desktop pulls malicious packages. How Superblocks 3.0 works: 1. Superblocks Builds: Import vibe coded prototypes. Model routing picks the best frontier or open source model per task. Saves up to 30% on token costs. 2. Superblocks Secures: A swarm of security agents work like a real human team to find and fix vulnerabilities. 3. Superblocks Deploys: Unlike consumer vibe coding tools that send your data to their cloud, Superblocks deploys the application, database, and AI inference securely inside your private AWS environment. Superblocks 3.0 is trusted across enterprises like Instacart, Benchling, and even banks and social networks with the most stringent security requirements. Book a demo here: Everyone says, “AI is replacing SaaS”, yet find me a Fortune 500 company that has vibe coded its own CRM instead of using Salesforce. That changes today. To celebrate our launch, we're building 1,000 enterprise apps for free. Comment a SaaS tool you hate and why, and we'll reply with an enterprise-grade replacement.

Brad Menezes

19,484,032 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I was joined by co-host Jesse Kobernick today. We had the pleasure of speaking with Ethan Peck and Scott Shepard of the Free Enterprise Project at the National Center for Public Policy. We discussed Ethan's introduction of the Microsoft $MSFT #Bitcoin Shareholder Proposal, considerations around the specific terms of the proposal, the technical process of getting the proposal in front of $MSFT shareholders, SAB 121, and what viewers can do to make our voices heard both at $MSFT and beyond. We have an incoming red wave. Now is our opportunity to create an Orange Wave and move forward corporate #Bitcoin adoption as a Treasury Reserve Asset. Share this video and Vote Your Shares YES on the Microsoft $MSFT Shareholder Proposal! Here's our conversation with Ethan and Scott. @TheJesseMK

I was joined by co-host Jesse Kobernick today. We had the pleasure of speaking with Ethan Peck and Scott Shepard of the Free Enterprise Project at the National Center for Public Policy. We discussed Ethan's introduction of the Microsoft $MSFT #Bitcoin Shareholder Proposal, considerations around the specific terms of the proposal, the technical process of getting the proposal in front of $MSFT shareholders, SAB 121, and what viewers can do to make our voices heard both at $MSFT and beyond. We have an incoming red wave. Now is our opportunity to create an Orange Wave and move forward corporate #Bitcoin adoption as a Treasury Reserve Asset. Share this video and Vote Your Shares YES on the Microsoft $MSFT Shareholder Proposal! Here's our conversation with Ethan and Scott. @TheJesseMK

Tim Kotzman

44,213 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Gavin Newsom’s new software tax goes way beyond corporate softwares, California Democrats are going to tax everything They expect to make over $2 billion per year from this new tax, “They now define pre-written software as everything from Microsoft Office, Gmail accounts, Android operating systems — it has a computer, it has pre-written software. California is now going to tax that. Wow” I put together a list to give you an idea of how far this goes • Microsoft Office / 365 subscriptions • Gmail / Google Workspace • Slack • Workday • QuickBooks / Intuit products • Adobe Creative Cloud / Acrobat • Android operating system licenses (in applicable contexts) • Cloud-based CRM/ERP systems • Accounting/financial software (SaaS versions) • Project management tools (e.g., Asana, Monday. com) • Antivirus/security software (digital downloads/subscriptions) • Productivity suites (e.g., Zoom, Teams) • Database software (pre-written) • Graphic design/photo editing tools (cloud) • Operating system access/subscriptions (where pre-written) • Enterprise software platforms • HR/payroll SaaS tools • Marketing automation software • Collaboration/communication apps • Many mobile/desktop apps sold digitally So basically everything

Gavin Newsom’s new software tax goes way beyond corporate softwares, California Democrats are going to tax everything They expect to make over $2 billion per year from this new tax, “They now define pre-written software as everything from Microsoft Office, Gmail accounts, Android operating systems — it has a computer, it has pre-written software. California is now going to tax that. Wow” I put together a list to give you an idea of how far this goes • Microsoft Office / 365 subscriptions • Gmail / Google Workspace • Slack • Workday • QuickBooks / Intuit products • Adobe Creative Cloud / Acrobat • Android operating system licenses (in applicable contexts) • Cloud-based CRM/ERP systems • Accounting/financial software (SaaS versions) • Project management tools (e.g., Asana, Monday. com) • Antivirus/security software (digital downloads/subscriptions) • Productivity suites (e.g., Zoom, Teams) • Database software (pre-written) • Graphic design/photo editing tools (cloud) • Operating system access/subscriptions (where pre-written) • Enterprise software platforms • HR/payroll SaaS tools • Marketing automation software • Collaboration/communication apps • Many mobile/desktop apps sold digitally So basically everything

Wall Street Apes

323,307 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Elon Musk says he has mapped out a plan to put a 100 gigawatts per year of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit. “We see a path to putting a hundred gigawatts per year of solar powered Al satellite into orbit, and having this be actually the lowest cost way to power and operate Al at a very large scale. For reference, the United States consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year. We have a plan mapped out to do so. It gets crazy.”

Elon Musk says he has mapped out a plan to put a 100 gigawatts per year of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit. “We see a path to putting a hundred gigawatts per year of solar powered Al satellite into orbit, and having this be actually the lowest cost way to power and operate Al at a very large scale. For reference, the United States consumes roughly 460 gigawatts on average per year. We have a plan mapped out to do so. It gets crazy.”

Nic Cruz Patane

267,484 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

MIT's new State of AI in Business report went viral for claiming that 95% of enterprise AI projects fail. But the real story isn't that AI doesn't work — it's just big companies can't build it. On the Lightcone Podcast, Garry Tan, Harj Taggar, Diana, and Jared Friedman break down what the study really says, why in-house enterprise AI efforts keep stalling, and how startups are filling the gap with products that learn, integrate, and actually deliver value. 2:08 - The enterprise AI adoption gap and why the failure rate is high 3:32 - Even Apple can be bad at software 4:30 - Why getting enterprise software to actually work is so hard 11:08 - The Reducto case study 13:39 - The type of enterprise employee you should find as a founder 14:39 - Meet founders who’ve been acquired by enterprises 15:25 - Enterprise/startup tension and symbiosis

MIT's new State of AI in Business report went viral for claiming that 95% of enterprise AI projects fail. But the real story isn't that AI doesn't work — it's just big companies can't build it. On the Lightcone Podcast, Garry Tan, Harj Taggar, Diana, and Jared Friedman break down what the study really says, why in-house enterprise AI efforts keep stalling, and how startups are filling the gap with products that learn, integrate, and actually deliver value. 2:08 - The enterprise AI adoption gap and why the failure rate is high 3:32 - Even Apple can be bad at software 4:30 - Why getting enterprise software to actually work is so hard 11:08 - The Reducto case study 13:39 - The type of enterprise employee you should find as a founder 14:39 - Meet founders who’ve been acquired by enterprises 15:25 - Enterprise/startup tension and symbiosis

Y Combinator

118,938 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Just last week $NOW CEO Bill McDermott had an hour-long interview on the No Priors podcast. He gave away several operational metrics that were missing. This gives a clearer look at their real competitive advantage right now. First, he shut down the analyst narrative about integration risk. On the earnings call, Wall Street worried that merging Moveworks, Veza, and Armis all at once would break the core platform. McDermott revealed they can fully integrated all of these businesses into the core system in just 20 days. That kind of engineering speed is impressive for major enterprise software mergers. It proves their internal architecture is incredibly agile. Enterprise deployment times have collapsed. Historically, big software installations take months or even years. McDermott stated that massive customers are now going live on their autonomous platform in under 30 days. This completely changes the return on investment math for buyers. If a CIO can show value in one month instead of one year, budget approvals happen much faster. He specifically noted that "the dance has gotten brief" and customers are making highly decisive, rapid purchasing choices. He finally explained the math behind his claim that building AI workflows from scratch costs ten times more than buying ServiceNow. It is not just a marketing number. They factored in three specific costs. They added up the massive cost of human capital required to write new code to mimic existing workflows. Then they added the capital expenditure of the necessary GPU compute. And finally, they added the ongoing variable cost of language model tokens. When you stack those three expenses, trying to replace their platform with raw AI becomes an incredibly difficult financial decision. He also dropped a massive usage statistic to prove their scale. They currently process 7 TRILLION transactions across 85B active workflows. McDermott gave a rare look at his daily sales management. He personally sat down for one-on-one calls with 17 different quota-carrying sales reps just yesterday. He has 72 of these calls scheduled for this month alone. A CEO of a company this size directly interviewing ground-level salespeople shows intense, micromanaged execution. It also means management has a flawless, real-time read on exactly what enterprise buyers are doing. It is easier to trust their forward guidance because the CEO is literally talking to the people closing the deals every single day. Wow!

Just last week $NOW CEO Bill McDermott had an hour-long interview on the No Priors podcast. He gave away several operational metrics that were missing. This gives a clearer look at their real competitive advantage right now. First, he shut down the analyst narrative about integration risk. On the earnings call, Wall Street worried that merging Moveworks, Veza, and Armis all at once would break the core platform. McDermott revealed they can fully integrated all of these businesses into the core system in just 20 days. That kind of engineering speed is impressive for major enterprise software mergers. It proves their internal architecture is incredibly agile. Enterprise deployment times have collapsed. Historically, big software installations take months or even years. McDermott stated that massive customers are now going live on their autonomous platform in under 30 days. This completely changes the return on investment math for buyers. If a CIO can show value in one month instead of one year, budget approvals happen much faster. He specifically noted that "the dance has gotten brief" and customers are making highly decisive, rapid purchasing choices. He finally explained the math behind his claim that building AI workflows from scratch costs ten times more than buying ServiceNow. It is not just a marketing number. They factored in three specific costs. They added up the massive cost of human capital required to write new code to mimic existing workflows. Then they added the capital expenditure of the necessary GPU compute. And finally, they added the ongoing variable cost of language model tokens. When you stack those three expenses, trying to replace their platform with raw AI becomes an incredibly difficult financial decision. He also dropped a massive usage statistic to prove their scale. They currently process 7 TRILLION transactions across 85B active workflows. McDermott gave a rare look at his daily sales management. He personally sat down for one-on-one calls with 17 different quota-carrying sales reps just yesterday. He has 72 of these calls scheduled for this month alone. A CEO of a company this size directly interviewing ground-level salespeople shows intense, micromanaged execution. It also means management has a flawless, real-time read on exactly what enterprise buyers are doing. It is easier to trust their forward guidance because the CEO is literally talking to the people closing the deals every single day. Wow!

CapexAndChill

120,541 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten