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Almost every technical indicator we've seen at previous bottoms is hitting right now "That's the thing. Whichever technical indicator you choose, most of the ones we've seen at previous bottoms are hitting it right now" "There's very few indicators people have used for bottoms in the past that are...

43,667 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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On April 20th 2020, something "impossible" happened: oil futures prices crashed through the floor, settling at MINUS $37.62 a barrel The reason? Because of lockdowns, demand for fuel crashed, oil tanks filled up, and no storage space was left, so those who held oil for delivery had to dump contracts at any price. Important to notice how, in 2020, speculative traders were positioned heavily long on Oil futures under the assumption lockdowns would not have lasted long and demand quickly spiked as soon as they were lifted, propping up the depressed crude oil prices. What would it take for the exact opposite to happen and for oil prices to suddenly skyrocket? Logically speaking, the answer is: SPR, Commercial, and Cushing inventories all at critical lows at the same time while demand remains strong and supply is in deficit. Does anything I said sound familiar? Of course it does, because that's exactly where we are right now. Those who say all-time low SPRs don't matter might be right. Those who say low commercial inventories do not matter might be right. Those who say Cushing hitting tank bottoms do not matter might be right too. Yes, they might be right if you consider these factors in isolation. The problem is that all-time low SPRs, low commercial inventories, Cushing about to hit tank bottoms, while demand remains strong (otherwise monster drawdowns would not happen) ARE ALL HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME. Beware: trading models are always based upon what happened in the past, but they aren't the right tool to try to predict something that never happened for the simple reason they have no data points to be built on. This is the reason why those who just looked at their models and charts could not see coming what happened in 2020. The same is happening today; that's just how the system works. Furthermore, opposite to what happened in 2020, speculative traders are holding a significant amount of short positions, effectively betting against the laws of Mother Nature, exactly like in 2020.

JustDario

67,018 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

I have a friend who doesn't read anything published in the past 50 years, and the more I think about it, the more I think he's onto something. The reason is that time is the best filter we have for quality. People are bad at judging quality in the moment but very good at getting rid of junk over time. — — "History is not very good at capturing all that is great in art. It is not good at that. There are many great symphonies that have been lost permanently, there are many great painters that died unknown and their paintings are gone, there's novels that have been written that no one will ever read. So history is not good at capturing all this great art. But history is very good at discarding all that is mediocre. And the amount of time that that takes, it's something like 50 years. So over the course of 50 years, what will happen is a lot of stuff that was prominent will be re-filtered and re-filtered and re-filtered, and you'll end up with a smaller group of things which have survived that test of time. So if you think about it right now, if you go back and look at the bestseller lists for 1974, 1973, there's a lot of that that would have been highly regarded at the time, which people do not read anymore for a variety of reasons, and there's some that has survived, and that's a very telling distinction. So in a world where I'm turning 60 this year, you have a limited amount of time, all four of us have active lives, we want to make sure that if we're going to sit down, we're going to read carefully, we're going to meet and we're going to discuss it in detail, we want to make sure that the work is rewarding. And the best way to ensure that is by drawing from the past." amor towles

David Perell

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