Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? | Zeke Hausfather #CBarchive Read here:

@matsburaas @hausfath Our knowledge about the climate rests on a solid scientific foundation, based on a rigorous analysis of observations. Pioneering climate modelers Syukuro Manabe Klaus Hasselman shared the Nobel Prize 2021 for Physics with theoretical physicist Giorgio Parisi.

@hausfath I'd love to see the same graph for different latitudes.

@hausfath The models are statistical curve fits, which have no predictive power. The older ones did a lousy job of hind casting. The newer ones do a better but still lousy job of hind casting. Better hind casting does not improve the predictive power of the models. They will never predict

@hausfath In 1998, temps stopped rising, and the year hiatus began. 16 yrs later Hadley made the hiatus go away by changing sources and replaced the flat line with a rising temp trend which matched their models. Now they congratulate themselves because their trend matches their models.

@hausfath You have only MODELS but I have FACTS.🤣

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@hausfath Ipcc havent been close

@hausfath

@hausfath It will be nice to do this for a few locations and extend this to 2100.