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Anti-corruption data analyst studying the success of anonymous Polymarket bets on military outcomes says the 52% success rate of these bets are a "telltale sign" of "systemic insider trading"

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The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found long-shot wagers — bets of more than $2,500 with less than 35% odds — on military outcomes won more than they lost. Researchers say it’s a telltale sign of “systemic insider-trading.”
0:49

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found long-shot wagers — bets of more than $2,500 with less than 35% odds — on military outcomes won more than they lost. Researchers say it’s a telltale sign of “systemic insider-trading.”

60 Minutes

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Data analyst studying anonymous Polymarket bets on military operations: "This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far... We spotted 9 Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made collectively $2.4M betting almost exclusively on US military operations... Here is the crazy part. 98% win rate... Luck alone cannot explain those numbers."
1:46

Data analyst studying anonymous Polymarket bets on military operations: "This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far... We spotted 9 Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made collectively $2.4M betting almost exclusively on US military operations... Here is the crazy part. 98% win rate... Luck alone cannot explain those numbers."

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LUCK ALONE CAN'T EXPLAIN THIS... 9 connected Polymarket accounts. $2.4M in profits. Bets almost exclusively on U.S. military operations. A 98% win rate. Now convince me it isn’t insider trading.
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LUCK ALONE CAN'T EXPLAIN THIS... 9 connected Polymarket accounts. $2.4M in profits. Bets almost exclusively on U.S. military operations. A 98% win rate. Now convince me it isn’t insider trading.

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High stakes bets on apps like Polymarket have led to allegations of insider trading. On the latest edition of the This Is Why podcast, Niall Paterson speaks to our OSINT producer Sam Doak about Polymarket, and the ethics of wartime betting Listen now 🔗
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High stakes bets on apps like Polymarket have led to allegations of insider trading. On the latest edition of the This Is Why podcast, Niall Paterson speaks to our OSINT producer Sam Doak about Polymarket, and the ethics of wartime betting Listen now 🔗

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Absolute importance. 60 Minutes exposes how a US Army soldier literally used highly classified Pentagon intelligence to execute massive insider trading bets on the capture of the Venezuelan President. The corruption within the US military establishment is absolutely staggering!
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Absolute bombshell. James O'Brien exposes massive insider trading just before Trump announced a ceasefire. 8 newly created accounts placed massive bets on a US-Iran ceasefire with obvious insider knowledge. The corruption of this war is staggering.
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Experience a new way of trading crypto, where the bets are low but the rewards are high! Game On. Trade On!📈
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Experience a new way of trading crypto, where the bets are low but the rewards are high! Game On. Trade On!📈

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🚨More than 80 suspiciously timed trades were placed ahead of Iran military operations. 🚨Politicians and government officials with inside information are placing bets and taking profits. This insider trading must end. I’m demanding info from Polymarket & Kalshi.👇
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🚨More than 80 suspiciously timed trades were placed ahead of Iran military operations. 🚨Politicians and government officials with inside information are placing bets and taking profits. This insider trading must end. I’m demanding info from Polymarket & Kalshi.👇

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Just before the US strike on Iran, a surge of suspiciously timed bets on prediction markets triggered fresh insider trading alarms. Funds that let investors mirror the stock trades of Congress are under scrutiny. Tidal Financial Group’s Dan Weiskopf said ‘the grift continues’
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Reporter on Insider Trading at WH: Is there any sort of plan in place to try to track people to see if they're making these types of bets in the White House? Leavitt: I don’t know why there’s further questions on it.
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Reporter on Insider Trading at WH: Is there any sort of plan in place to try to track people to see if they're making these types of bets in the White House? Leavitt: I don’t know why there’s further questions on it.

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A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.
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Reporter: There are also bets being placed on the Iran conflict. People suspect there is insider trading happening. Are you concerned? Trump: Unfortunately, the whole world has become somewhat of a casino. I don't like it conceptually. It is what it is.
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Reporter: There are also bets being placed on the Iran conflict. People suspect there is insider trading happening. Are you concerned? Trump: Unfortunately, the whole world has become somewhat of a casino. I don't like it conceptually. It is what it is.

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Last Friday, a handful of people made big, unusual $100,000+ bets on Polymarket - that the U.S. would strike Iran the next day. The Iran War is fueling a new kind of corruption: White House officials secretly profiting off war. It's disgusting. We need to ban it.
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Called it 🤣 I think this may be a sign of the opposition hedging their bets on a peace deal
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Called it 🤣 I think this may be a sign of the opposition hedging their bets on a peace deal

VincentScott

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Reporter: There are bets being placed on the Iran war. People suspect there is insider trading happening. Are you concerned? Trump: The whole world has become a casino. It is what it is.
0:29

Reporter: There are bets being placed on the Iran war. People suspect there is insider trading happening. Are you concerned? Trump: The whole world has become a casino. It is what it is.

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