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$APP is down nearly 20% after a temporary slowdown in model improvement prevented another major step-up in advertiser spending despite an otherwise exceptional quarter. AppLovin’s platform becomes more valuable as its AI improves ad targeting which lifts advertiser returns and unlocks larger budgets but its research team didn't deliver...

81,850 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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$APP's pivot to e-commerce is a very intriguing strategy. The market perceives the entry of non-gaming advertisers as a potential friction point that could crowd out core gaming clients or inflate pricing, but this ignores the massive asymmetry between AppLovin’s reach of over one billion daily active users and its historically thin roster of active advertisers. This imbalance has meant that the vast amount of inventory were previously under-monetized, as the algorithm could only serve gaming ads to users who had no intent to install new games. By layering in e-commerce demand, the platform effectively monetizes this wasted inventory, driving up overall yield and floor prices without cannibalizing the high-intent impressions reserved for gaming clients. This creates a margin-accretive dynamic where the same unit of supply generates significantly higher revenue per user solely through better demand matching. This efficiency gain feeds directly into a data-driven moat that becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate. The flywheel is the introduction of transactional e-commerce data that radically improves the Axon AI model's predictive capabilities for all participants. Unlike app install data, which is binary and relatively sparse, e-commerce purchase data provides immediate high-fidelity signals about user intent and purchasing power. As the model ingests this new layer of behavioral data, its ability to predict conversion improves universally, meaning that gaming advertisers actually benefit from the presence of e-commerce bids through sharper targeting and higher return on ad spend. The rapid 50% week over week growth in the self-service pilot is a great preliminary validation that this automated demand engine is functional. This signals that AppLovin can scale this new vertical with software operating leverage. The requirement for high-production video ads has left out the long tail of millions of small business advertisers who dominate platforms like $META. The launch of generative AI creative tools targets this specific bottleneck, commoditizing the production of high-performing video assets and allowing AppLovin to unlock global SMB demand instantly. If successful, this creates a self-reinforcing liquidity cycle where increased advertiser density leads to better data, which drives superior model performance, which in turn attracts more diverse advertisers. This helps decouple the company's growth trajectory from the cyclicality of the mobile gaming market. Really interesting biz and great CEO.

CapexAndChill

29,897 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

AppLovin CEO is trying to counter Anthropic’s CEO claims that SaaS is DEAD and never coming back. $APP is not an ad network. It is not a gaming company. It is an arbitrage engine with 400 engineers, $1.3 billion in cash flow per quarter, and a capital allocation track record that belongs in a business school curriculum. Start with the gaming studios. From 2018 to 2023, AppLovin acquired over 15 mobile gaming studios and 1,500 people. Nobody understood why. The answer was data. Third party advertisers would not share their conversion and ROAS data with AppLovin's model. So AppLovin became a first party advertiser — running its own games, generating its own behavioral data, feeding that data into Axon, its deep learning ad model. The studios were not a business. They were a training set. The moment Axon 2.0 launched in April 2023 and proved so effective that the entire gaming industry had to plug in and share their data to access the returns, the studios had served their purpose. AppLovin sold the entire portfolio to Tripledot and moved on. They used the asset to build the moat and immediately dumped the asset. That is not a pivot. That is a premeditated extraction. The 2022 buyback is the capital allocation move that defined the company's trajectory. The market had pushed AppLovin's market cap to $3.8 billion. The business was printing over $1 billion in EBITDA. Instead of open market repurchases, management identified that private equity backers and early insiders controlled nearly 50% of the float and needed liquidity. They bypassed the public market entirely, negotiated directly with those institutional holders, and executed a $6 billion leveraged buyback at the floor. Foroughi estimates that single decision generated $50 to $60 billion in retained value for remaining shareholders as the stock recovered. One negotiation. One decision. $50 billion created. The operating model is the part that should make every other tech CEO uncomfortable. AppLovin fired 40% of its workforce while growing revenue nearly 100% year over year. The C suite is four people—CEO, CFO, CTO, General Counsel. No CRO. No COO. No salesforce. Over 80% of the codebase is now written by AI, multiplying the output of their best engineers by up to 100x. The product does not need to be sold. Advertisers plug in, set a performance goal, and if the ROAS is positive they scale spend infinitely. The platform turns advertisers into blind arbitrageurs — they do not need to understand how it works, they just need to see the return. The TAM expansion is the next leg. Axon perfected gaming monetization. It is now being pointed at ecommerce and local SMBs — markets orders of magnitude larger than mobile gaming. The model does not need a sales team to penetrate them. It needs inventory and intent signals. It is acquiring both. The company has internal compensation triggers tied to a $1 trillion market cap. They went from $3.8 billion in 2022 to $154 billion today. The people running this business have done everything they said they would do, faster than anyone expected, with fewer people than anyone thought possible. That track record is the most important input in any forward model. Betting against a team that turned a $3.8 billion floor into $154 billion in three years, with 400 people, no salesforce, and an AI model that the entire industry has to use — requires a very specific and defensible thesis. Most of the people making that bet do not have one…stock is still being beaten to death…still not compelled. AI companies are just too good and getting better but interesting to see him come publicly to try to pump his stock

Nicholas Mugalli

100,854 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

There is a massive misunderstanding about what $APP actually is, and the recent Adam Foroughi interview just handed investors as a class in capital allocation, efficiency, and strategic vertical integration. At its core, AppLovin isn’t solely an ad-network or a gaming business but an arbitrage engine. APP is essentially run by a skeleton crew of about ~400 core engineers and product builders generating $1.3B in cash flow a quarter. The gaming studio acquisitions were purely strategic. From roughly 2018 to 2023, APP bought up mobile gaming studios. It was accumulating over 15 studios and 1,500 headcount. This was not because they wanted to be a gaming company, but strictly to harvest first-party conversion data. They needed proprietary behavioral and return on ad spend data to train their Axon deep learning models because third-party advertisers wouldn't share it. Once the Axon 2.0 model launched in April 2023, it became so hyper-effective that the entire gaming industry had no choice but to plug in and share their data to access the platform's unparalleled returns. Having served its purpose, APP then shed the distraction, selling off the gaming portfolio to Tripledot Studios. This was pure strategic rent extraction. They used the asset to train the AI, built the moat, and immediately dumped the asset. Then there is the capital allocation execution. Back in 2022, when the broader market abandoned the stock and pushed APP's market cap to a floor of $3.8B, the business was still printing over $1 B in EBITDA. Instead of executing standard open-market share repurchases, management identified that their private equity backers and early insiders held nearly 50% of the float and eventually wanted liquidity. Management bypassed the public market entirely. They negotiated directly with those institutional holders to execute a massive $6 billion leveraged buyback. They effectively retired a huge portion of the company at rock-bottom valuations. Foroughi noted this singular move generated $50 to $60 B in retained value for remaining shareholders as the stock rebounded. While the rest of big tech hoards headcount, APP actively fired 40% of its workforce in recent years while growing revenue by nearly 100% YoY. The C-suite consists only of the CEO, CFO, CTO, and General Counsel. There is no CRO, no COO, and virtually no salesforce. They replaced standard enterprise bloat with LLMs. Over 80% of their codebase is now written by AI, multiplying the output of their highest-tier engineers up to 100x. The product nearly sells itself. Advertisers plug in, set a performance goal, and if the ROAS is positive, they scale spend infinitely. It turns advertisers into blind arbitrageurs. The TAM expansion is also clear. Now that the model has perfected gaming monetization, APP is unleashing Axon onto e-commerce and local SMBs. They don't need a massive sales team to do this. The AI matches the right intent with the right ad, pushing conversion rates up. The company literally has internal compensation triggers tied to a $1 T market cap. Given they have grown from under $4 B in 2022 to roughly ~$154 B in market cap today, betting against this lean, hyper-competent team does not make much sense.

CapexAndChill

24,419 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

New Paper: Continuous Thought Machines 🧠 Neurons in brains use timing and synchronization in the way that they compute, but this is largely ignored in modern neural nets. We believe neural timing is key for the flexibility and adaptability of biological intelligence. We propose a new neural architecture, “Continuous Thought Machines” (CTMs), which is built from the ground up to use neural dynamics as a core representation for intelligence. By using neural dynamics as a first-class representational citizen, CTMs naturally perform adaptive computation. Many emergent, interesting behaviors arise as a result: CTMs solve mazes by observing a raw maze image and producing step-by-step instructions directly from its neural dynamics. When tasked with image recognition, the CTM naturally takes multiple steps to examine different parts of the image before making its decision. This step-by-step approach not only makes its behavior more interpretable but also improves accuracy: the longer it “thinks,” the more accurate its answers become. We also found that this allows the CTM to decide to spend less time thinking on simpler images, thus saving energy. When identifying a gorilla, for example, the CTM’s attention moves from eyes to nose to mouth in a pattern remarkably similar to human visual attention. I think this work underscores an important, yet often lost, synergy between neuroscience and AI. While modern AI is ostensibly brain-inspired, the two fields often operate in surprising isolation. By starting with such inspiration and iteratively following the emergent, interesting behaviors, we developed a model with unexpected capabilities, such as its surprisingly strong calibration in classification tasks, a feature that was not explicitly designed for. When we initially asked, “why do this research?”, we hoped the journey of the CTM would provide compelling answers. By embracing light biological inspiration and pursuing the novel behaviors observed, we have arrived at a model with emergent capabilities that exceeded our initial designs. We are committed to continuing this exploration, borrowing further concepts to discover what new and exciting behaviors will emerge, pushing the boundaries of what AI can achieve.

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126,587 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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161,958 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

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ANI

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68,034 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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