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APPLEBAUM: Kushner and Witkoff didn’t understand Putin. They don’t really know the geography of Ukraine. They were seen by Russians, and really by everybody, as incompetents who were bumbling along. Russians thought, "Well, we can rip these people off, and win the war that way."

30,634 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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APPLEBAUM: Witkoff and Kushner had a pretty profound effect on how peace negotiations been conducted, and it’s not positive. They prolonged war in Ukraine because their attitude was, "We’re going to Moscow to do deals with Russian companies." Russians were delighted by this, we know that they were offering them stuff in the Arctic, minerals, and so on. They even told European allies, "Be prepared, because this is what they’re doing." This has been in the newspapers, it’s not a secret. Witkoff and Kushner gave Russians impression that Americans were on their side, that they could somehow buy Trump administration. That they would eventually defeat Ukraine with the help of United States. And this war has an important psychological element. It’s over when Russians stop fighting and say, "We can’t defeat Ukraine. Ukraine’s not going to become part of Russia. We stop fighting, have a ceasefire, or begin to negotiate." But Americans put sort of new life into belief that Russians would win the war militarily, that Ukraine would eventually fall. It didn’t happen, mostly because of Ukrainian ingenuity, this real reinvention of modern warfare with drones. It didn’t fall because European countries stepped up to the plate and began funding Ukrainian war effort and Ukrainian economy. You have now this so-called coalition of the willing, which includes most countries in Europe, plus few others. And they’ve kept Ukrainians fighting. And Ukrainians have been holding the line for some months now.

Kate from Kharkiv

35,016 views • 1 month ago

APPLEBAUM: I think Trump genuinely believed that he was friends with Putin, and that that’s how he would bring the war to an end. Trump was very surprised to learn that Russians have different set of interests, bigger than him, that he wasn’t able to influence Putin. So I think it’s fair to say it’s pretty clear that Trump doesn’t understand or know Russia, or Putin, very well. And unfortunately, negotiations that Trump conducted with Russians in first part of his term were very counterproductive. They gave Russians idea that Americans would let them keep fighting, would get Ukrainians to give up their territory. Putin was never seriously interested in ending the war. We’ve never seen any sign that he’s willing to accept ceasefire. If Trump had come to power and said, “I’m going to continue to support Ukraine, I want Ukraine to win the war.” Then this war might be over by now, because this war will be over when Russians understand that they can’t win. When Russians finally understand that Ukraine will not become a Russian colony, and that it’s not worth fighting. Most colonial wars last about 10 years. Whether you think this started in 2014 or 2022, you could be optimistic or pessimistic. It’s also true that most colonial wars are eventually ended not by the person who started them. Algeria is a good example. Most colonial wars also end with turmoil in capital. Once you understand it’s colonial war, then you know what’s at stake.

Kate from Kharkiv

171,620 views • 1 month ago