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APPLEBAUM: Russians hitting Kyiv because they can’t move forward on front line, can’t defend Crimea, can’t defend refineries. They know Ukrainians don’t have enough air defense against ballistic missiles. That’s one weapon Russians still have, but it’s not going to win them war.

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Kate from Kharkiv

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50,119 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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APPLEBAUM: If Russians stop fighting, war is over. If Ukrainians stop fighting, Ukraine is over. Ukraine doesn’t exist anymore. So, they have no choice, but to fight. Ukrainians have to continue fighting to defend their country. That’s what Trump has just resisted understanding.
0:35

APPLEBAUM: If Russians stop fighting, war is over. If Ukrainians stop fighting, Ukraine is over. Ukraine doesn’t exist anymore. So, they have no choice, but to fight. Ukrainians have to continue fighting to defend their country. That’s what Trump has just resisted understanding.

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Applebaum: Russians say they have no fuel, can’t do their jobs, and don’t know what comes next. But ordinary Russians have little impact on the Kremlin. Don’t view Russia through a democratic lens. Propaganda says Russia is winning; reality says Russians are worse off. 1/

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Applebaum: Ukraine has cut off land and ferry links to Crimea. Fuel and food running short. Russia forced to move air defense from the front line toward Moscow. Gasoline shortages across Russia. Russians talking about it on social media, which was not the case before. 1/

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They do not care if you call them cheaters or bad people they don’t care about anything but winning. And they know they can’t beat us so they have to cheat it’s disgraceful! VOTE BLUE!!
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They do not care if you call them cheaters or bad people they don’t care about anything but winning. And they know they can’t beat us so they have to cheat it’s disgraceful! VOTE BLUE!!

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APPLEBAUM: Witkoff and Kushner had a pretty profound effect on how peace negotiations been conducted, and it’s not positive. They prolonged war in Ukraine because their attitude was, "We’re going to Moscow to do deals with Russian companies." Russians were delighted by this, we know that they were offering them stuff in the Arctic, minerals, and so on. They even told European allies, "Be prepared, because this is what they’re doing." This has been in the newspapers, it’s not a secret. Witkoff and Kushner gave Russians impression that Americans were on their side, that they could somehow buy Trump administration. That they would eventually defeat Ukraine with the help of United States. And this war has an important psychological element. It’s over when Russians stop fighting and say, "We can’t defeat Ukraine. Ukraine’s not going to become part of Russia. We stop fighting, have a ceasefire, or begin to negotiate." But Americans put sort of new life into belief that Russians would win the war militarily, that Ukraine would eventually fall. It didn’t happen, mostly because of Ukrainian ingenuity, this real reinvention of modern warfare with drones. It didn’t fall because European countries stepped up to the plate and began funding Ukrainian war effort and Ukrainian economy. You have now this so-called coalition of the willing, which includes most countries in Europe, plus few others. And they’ve kept Ukrainians fighting. And Ukrainians have been holding the line for some months now.
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APPLEBAUM: Witkoff and Kushner had a pretty profound effect on how peace negotiations been conducted, and it’s not positive. They prolonged war in Ukraine because their attitude was, "We’re going to Moscow to do deals with Russian companies." Russians were delighted by this, we know that they were offering them stuff in the Arctic, minerals, and so on. They even told European allies, "Be prepared, because this is what they’re doing." This has been in the newspapers, it’s not a secret. Witkoff and Kushner gave Russians impression that Americans were on their side, that they could somehow buy Trump administration. That they would eventually defeat Ukraine with the help of United States. And this war has an important psychological element. It’s over when Russians stop fighting and say, "We can’t defeat Ukraine. Ukraine’s not going to become part of Russia. We stop fighting, have a ceasefire, or begin to negotiate." But Americans put sort of new life into belief that Russians would win the war militarily, that Ukraine would eventually fall. It didn’t happen, mostly because of Ukrainian ingenuity, this real reinvention of modern warfare with drones. It didn’t fall because European countries stepped up to the plate and began funding Ukrainian war effort and Ukrainian economy. You have now this so-called coalition of the willing, which includes most countries in Europe, plus few others. And they’ve kept Ukrainians fighting. And Ukrainians have been holding the line for some months now.

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APPLEBAUM: Russians starting to see how narrative of Russia’s greatness and Putin’s tremendous success confronts reality. They see Ukrainian drones hitting Russia, especially attacks on oil refineries, but now also Wildberries. Billions of dollars of commerce going up in smoke. Ukrainians have started hitting these huge warehouses. Russians beginning to feel: "Okay, we have this language of great power, triumph, success, and yet we have fuel shortages, and my business is going bankrupt as Ukrainian drones hit my warehouse." And feeling of crisis is growing. You’ll see a real crisis in the next two or three months. We might begin to see more noise and dissent inside Russia. Because Russians see that they’re not winning the war. It’s partly reflection of Ukrainian success at hitting these Russian targets. It’s also partly that Ukrainian success with drone technology has really prevented Russians from moving forward. The system is running into reality, and that’s how Soviet Union finally broke down. When propaganda conflicted with reality and nobody believed the propaganda anymore.
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APPLEBAUM: Ukrainians have been continually pressured by Trump administration to give up territory to Russia. They keep asking, “What will we get in return? How do we know the war will end?” The answer is: they don’t know. No one has given them anything. Territory they’re being asked to give up is heavily fortified. These are fortress towns that Ukrainians have been defending and fighting over for years, places where Ukrainians actually live. So you’re not just giving up territory, you’re giving up a protective zone. If you gave it up, you would then enable Russians to move further.
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APPLEBAUM: Ukrainians have been continually pressured by Trump administration to give up territory to Russia. They keep asking, “What will we get in return? How do we know the war will end?” The answer is: they don’t know. No one has given them anything. Territory they’re being asked to give up is heavily fortified. These are fortress towns that Ukrainians have been defending and fighting over for years, places where Ukrainians actually live. So you’re not just giving up territory, you’re giving up a protective zone. If you gave it up, you would then enable Russians to move further.

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I know so many families in Delhi who hesitate and sometimes outright refuse to have a 2nd children, not because they don’t want one, but because they simply can’t afford the sky high school fees. Welcome move by Delhi govt to regulate and cap private school fees.

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“White people have always prioritized pets over Black people. They love pets because they obey and don’t talk back, and because they can’t remind them of the horror behind the house. They refuse to love what they can’t control.” Yeah, I’m pretty sure that’s not the reason we love our pets. They really are nutballs.

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1:26

HODGES: Until we inflict consequences on Russia for all these drones violating airspace, sabotage, disinformation and etc, it’s only going to increase, and that’s how we eventually get into more traditional war, because Russians can see that we still can’t get our shit together.

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APPLEBAUM: Russians very publicly and clearly not winning the war. Gap between Russian propaganda and reality becoming clearer. That’s beginning to have echoes. You can see it on Russian internet, in responses of Russian influencers. Critiques of Putin starting to bubble up. People are commenting, “Why aren’t we winning? Why aren’t we trying harder?” There are people talking about nukes again. That always happens when Russians are losing. There’s a sense of shakiness and instability. Putin has been trying to persuade Russians not to pay attention to the war: “It’s an inevitable Russian victory. We’re going to win sooner or later. We’re much bigger than they are. They’re not a real country. Their country is run by Nazis. It’s not a real government. And we’re going to win.” Now, it’s becoming clear to a lot of people, not just those near the front line, but in Moscow and St. Petersburg, that they are not winning the war.
1:44

APPLEBAUM: Russians very publicly and clearly not winning the war. Gap between Russian propaganda and reality becoming clearer. That’s beginning to have echoes. You can see it on Russian internet, in responses of Russian influencers. Critiques of Putin starting to bubble up. People are commenting, “Why aren’t we winning? Why aren’t we trying harder?” There are people talking about nukes again. That always happens when Russians are losing. There’s a sense of shakiness and instability. Putin has been trying to persuade Russians not to pay attention to the war: “It’s an inevitable Russian victory. We’re going to win sooner or later. We’re much bigger than they are. They’re not a real country. Their country is run by Nazis. It’s not a real government. And we’re going to win.” Now, it’s becoming clear to a lot of people, not just those near the front line, but in Moscow and St. Petersburg, that they are not winning the war.

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