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$ASST Strive – Currently Undervalued (Deep Discount)🚀 - VIDEO ANALYSIS Price Targets @ 1.6x mNAV: $100k BTC → $1.68 ASST $115k BTC → $1.94 ASST $130k BTC → $2.19 ASST ASST is $0.80 → trading at ~0.86x mNAV👀

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Donald Dean

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34,666 次观看 • 7 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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ASST to $213 in 2 years. Fun little model for you: ASSUMPTIONS Stock price (today): $17.40 Shares outstanding: 79,885,057 Total BTC: 19,105.40 ₿ BTC spot / CAGR: $67,061 → ending $250,000 Debt / rate: $0 @ 0.0% Preferred / rate: $751.39M @ 13.0% Other senior claims: $0 Monthly pref issuance: $150.00M/mo @ 13.0% Monthly common issuance: $0/mo % of raise to BTC: 100% (immediately purchases) Dividend funding: Issue common CEBE mNAV path: Flat 1.93× → 2.30× CURRENT SNAPSHOT CEBE sats / share: 13,463 Common equity BTC: 10,754.82 ₿ Net senior claims BTC: 8,350.58 ₿ CEBE mNAV (market): 1.93× Claim ratio: 43.7% PROJECTED: Ending BTC price: $250.00K Ending total BTC: 49,784.31 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 37,066 CEBE Sats Yield (ann.): 65.9% Ending common equity ₿: 33,144.31 ₿ Ending claim ratio: 33.4% Ending implied price: $213.13 (at 2.30×) Total return vs today: 1,125% Educational modeling only - not investment advice. Outputs depend entirely on user assumptions: $150m SATA issuance per month. Only sell ASST to pay divs. BTC to $250k. 2.3x mNAV. 12x return for $213 ASST share price while them holding less than 50k BTC :)
0:26

ASST to $213 in 2 years. Fun little model for you: ASSUMPTIONS Stock price (today): $17.40 Shares outstanding: 79,885,057 Total BTC: 19,105.40 ₿ BTC spot / CAGR: $67,061 → ending $250,000 Debt / rate: $0 @ 0.0% Preferred / rate: $751.39M @ 13.0% Other senior claims: $0 Monthly pref issuance: $150.00M/mo @ 13.0% Monthly common issuance: $0/mo % of raise to BTC: 100% (immediately purchases) Dividend funding: Issue common CEBE mNAV path: Flat 1.93× → 2.30× CURRENT SNAPSHOT CEBE sats / share: 13,463 Common equity BTC: 10,754.82 ₿ Net senior claims BTC: 8,350.58 ₿ CEBE mNAV (market): 1.93× Claim ratio: 43.7% PROJECTED: Ending BTC price: $250.00K Ending total BTC: 49,784.31 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 37,066 CEBE Sats Yield (ann.): 65.9% Ending common equity ₿: 33,144.31 ₿ Ending claim ratio: 33.4% Ending implied price: $213.13 (at 2.30×) Total return vs today: 1,125% Educational modeling only - not investment advice. Outputs depend entirely on user assumptions: $150m SATA issuance per month. Only sell ASST to pay divs. BTC to $250k. 2.3x mNAV. 12x return for $213 ASST share price while them holding less than 50k BTC :)

Adam Livingston

29,525 次观看 • 2 个月前

🔥BITCOIN TO $400K?! ASST VS. MSTR!🔥 MSTR is the fortress. ASST is the rocket-powered shopping cart with a lit cigarette in the gas tank. In this video, I break down my ASST investing thesis versus MSTR using CEBE, mNAV, claim ratio, preferred issuance, and the deranged little math goblin hiding inside Bitcoin treasury companies. The thesis is simple. MSTR is bigger, deeper, safer, and more institutional. ASST has more upside torque if Bitcoin rips, the capital structure behaves, and the market keeps paying a premium for the machine. If Bitcoin goes to $150k, ASST may outrun MSTR. If Bitcoin goes to $400k, the moon math gets disgusting. But there’s a catch. mNAV compression can absolutely nuke the outperformance. FULL BREAKDOWN:
29:18

🔥BITCOIN TO $400K?! ASST VS. MSTR!🔥 MSTR is the fortress. ASST is the rocket-powered shopping cart with a lit cigarette in the gas tank. In this video, I break down my ASST investing thesis versus MSTR using CEBE, mNAV, claim ratio, preferred issuance, and the deranged little math goblin hiding inside Bitcoin treasury companies. The thesis is simple. MSTR is bigger, deeper, safer, and more institutional. ASST has more upside torque if Bitcoin rips, the capital structure behaves, and the market keeps paying a premium for the machine. If Bitcoin goes to $150k, ASST may outrun MSTR. If Bitcoin goes to $400k, the moon math gets disgusting. But there’s a catch. mNAV compression can absolutely nuke the outperformance. FULL BREAKDOWN:

Adam Livingston

18,348 次观看 • 1 个月前

Strive announcements: 1. Our 3rd quarter 10Q is filed 2. Our BTC Dashboard is live For the most recent update on $ASST & $SATA, please watch our investor presentation. See comments for additional information.
52:28

Strive announcements: 1. Our 3rd quarter 10Q is filed 2. Our BTC Dashboard is live For the most recent update on $ASST & $SATA, please watch our investor presentation. See comments for additional information.

Strive

189,658 次观看 • 9 个月前

$MSTR and $ASST will perform at multiples of Bitcoin over the next 15 years. - The Bitcoin bottom was $60k. - Strategy as The Bank of England. - $ASST 150-200x & 2.6X BTC/Share - current amplification over 15 years. - $MSTR 150x & 2.2X BTC/Share -current amplification over 15 years. - Pre Market Trading on $STRC's ex-dividend date is when all the selling happens. Lot's of SATA pre market trading volume.
18:18

$MSTR and $ASST will perform at multiples of Bitcoin over the next 15 years. - The Bitcoin bottom was $60k. - Strategy as The Bank of England. - $ASST 150-200x & 2.6X BTC/Share - current amplification over 15 years. - $MSTR 150x & 2.2X BTC/Share -current amplification over 15 years. - Pre Market Trading on $STRC's ex-dividend date is when all the selling happens. Lot's of SATA pre market trading volume.

Dan Hillery

48,268 次观看 • 3 个月前

ASST from $17 to $793. From May 1st to May 22, the company has reported $150 million deployed into Bitcoin. Let's assume they raise even less. Let's go with $100m per month with SATA issuance. $100M/month preferred issuance buying BTC, 13% preferred cost, dividends paid via share issuance, CEBE mNAV held flat at 1.7x. Common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, zero common stock issued to buy Bitcoin. 30% BTC CAGR. Starting point: $17.67 ASST 16,500 BTC 14,080 CEBE sats/share 35.3% senior claim drag Year 5: $153/share 61,264 BTC 32,825 CEBE sats/share 8.7x from today Year 10: $793/share 73,320 BTC 45,845 CEBE sats/share 44.9x from today And the psychotic part is the model keeps CEBE mNAV flat at 1.7x the entire time. No multiple expansion required. The senior claim drag falls from 35.3% to 16.7% because fixed fiat claims get slowly humiliated by BTC appreciation. Bitcoin goes up, residual common equity exposure grows, and the bears are left screaming at a spreadsheet like it owes them child support. Bullish ASST.
0:27

ASST from $17 to $793. From May 1st to May 22, the company has reported $150 million deployed into Bitcoin. Let's assume they raise even less. Let's go with $100m per month with SATA issuance. $100M/month preferred issuance buying BTC, 13% preferred cost, dividends paid via share issuance, CEBE mNAV held flat at 1.7x. Common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, zero common stock issued to buy Bitcoin. 30% BTC CAGR. Starting point: $17.67 ASST 16,500 BTC 14,080 CEBE sats/share 35.3% senior claim drag Year 5: $153/share 61,264 BTC 32,825 CEBE sats/share 8.7x from today Year 10: $793/share 73,320 BTC 45,845 CEBE sats/share 44.9x from today And the psychotic part is the model keeps CEBE mNAV flat at 1.7x the entire time. No multiple expansion required. The senior claim drag falls from 35.3% to 16.7% because fixed fiat claims get slowly humiliated by BTC appreciation. Bitcoin goes up, residual common equity exposure grows, and the bears are left screaming at a spreadsheet like it owes them child support. Bullish ASST.

Adam Livingston

47,944 次观看 • 3 个月前

6x BITCOIN RETURNS?!? HOW I PLAN TO GET FILTHY RICH WITH ASST LEAPS! This is not financial advice. This is financial entertainment. I am buying January 2028 ASST LEAPs like crazy. Bitcoin is down almost 50%. Why do I like this entry? Because ASST has almost 50% Bitcoin amplification. Discount to NAV included. mNAV rerate potential. If Bitcoin just gets back to it's all-time high by 2028, I get FILTHY RICH. If Bitcoin drags along the Power Law floor, I still make money. This is HOW:
22:59

6x BITCOIN RETURNS?!? HOW I PLAN TO GET FILTHY RICH WITH ASST LEAPS! This is not financial advice. This is financial entertainment. I am buying January 2028 ASST LEAPs like crazy. Bitcoin is down almost 50%. Why do I like this entry? Because ASST has almost 50% Bitcoin amplification. Discount to NAV included. mNAV rerate potential. If Bitcoin just gets back to it's all-time high by 2028, I get FILTHY RICH. If Bitcoin drags along the Power Law floor, I still make money. This is HOW:

Adam Livingston

29,142 次观看 • 5 个月前

BREAKING: Strive $ASST CEO Matt Cole (Matt Cole) rings the opening bell to kick off the trading day at Nasdaq today. The world's first daily dividend-paying #Bitcoin-backed credit issuer, starting June 16th 🔥🚀
0:20

BREAKING: Strive $ASST CEO Matt Cole (Matt Cole) rings the opening bell to kick off the trading day at Nasdaq today. The world's first daily dividend-paying #Bitcoin-backed credit issuer, starting June 16th 🔥🚀

BitcoinTreasuries.NET

247,208 次观看 • 3 个月前

BFM209 w/ @Strive CRO @punterjeff is live!⚡️ "We’re playing a huge arbitrage no one understands yet." We discuss: 🔸 Mechanics of the speculative dollar attack 🔸 How risk is mispriced globally 🔸 $ASST, $SATA & $MSTR 🔸 Millennial’s pension problem 🔸 BTC as global hurdle rate
1:39:43

BFM209 w/ @Strive CRO @punterjeff is live!⚡️ "We’re playing a huge arbitrage no one understands yet." We discuss: 🔸 Mechanics of the speculative dollar attack 🔸 How risk is mispriced globally 🔸 $ASST, $SATA & $MSTR 🔸 Millennial’s pension problem 🔸 BTC as global hurdle rate

Bram Kanstein

51,250 次观看 • 9 个月前

The Multimillion Dollar Bitcoin Treasury Trade Ft. BTC Optioneer 00:00 - Intro: Why Strive (ASST) might be the best Bitcoin equity play right now 01:44 - Zach's bull case: ASST could do 2x what MicroStrategy does 02:43 - Buying Jan 2028 LEAPS on ASST - targeting 20-40x 04:35 - MetaPlanet: Is Japan's Bitcoin treasury company worth it? 06:05 - MNAV explained: How to know when MSTR is overvalued vs undervalued 09:34 - Ranking the top options trades right now: LEAPS vs puts vs covered calls 10:44 - Put selling masterclass: Delta, DTE, and volatility thresholds 12:29 - "If you're a gambling addict, don't do this" — margin warning 13:04 - The Robinhood edge: Selling puts on margin with zero interest on collateral 14:11 - When covered calls make sense (and when they don't) 15:55 - How the wheel strategy works on MSTR and ASST 17:00 - Is Circle (USDC) worth buying? Why Zach prefers MSTR over Coinbase 19:05 - "Coinbase is a better stock than it is a company" 21:33 - Robinhood stock: Wheeling it live and making $400 in a week 24:25 - Call debit spreads explained in 2 minutes 27:08 - Live look at ASST LEAPS premiums at market open 28:25 - Pro tip: Never chase - set limit orders below the ask and wait 29:00 - Will MSTR all-time high and BTC all-time high happen at the same time? 31:45 - Exit strategy: When to take profits on MSTR without selling shares 35:25 - Using covered calls as a profit-taking tool instead of selling your position 38:21 - The risk: You can still lose your shares even if you keep rolling 40:51 - LEAPS vs shares: The math on why options give you 2x+ the upside 42:52 - Where to find BTC Optioneer + final thoughts
43:23

The Multimillion Dollar Bitcoin Treasury Trade Ft. BTC Optioneer 00:00 - Intro: Why Strive (ASST) might be the best Bitcoin equity play right now 01:44 - Zach's bull case: ASST could do 2x what MicroStrategy does 02:43 - Buying Jan 2028 LEAPS on ASST - targeting 20-40x 04:35 - MetaPlanet: Is Japan's Bitcoin treasury company worth it? 06:05 - MNAV explained: How to know when MSTR is overvalued vs undervalued 09:34 - Ranking the top options trades right now: LEAPS vs puts vs covered calls 10:44 - Put selling masterclass: Delta, DTE, and volatility thresholds 12:29 - "If you're a gambling addict, don't do this" — margin warning 13:04 - The Robinhood edge: Selling puts on margin with zero interest on collateral 14:11 - When covered calls make sense (and when they don't) 15:55 - How the wheel strategy works on MSTR and ASST 17:00 - Is Circle (USDC) worth buying? Why Zach prefers MSTR over Coinbase 19:05 - "Coinbase is a better stock than it is a company" 21:33 - Robinhood stock: Wheeling it live and making $400 in a week 24:25 - Call debit spreads explained in 2 minutes 27:08 - Live look at ASST LEAPS premiums at market open 28:25 - Pro tip: Never chase - set limit orders below the ask and wait 29:00 - Will MSTR all-time high and BTC all-time high happen at the same time? 31:45 - Exit strategy: When to take profits on MSTR without selling shares 35:25 - Using covered calls as a profit-taking tool instead of selling your position 38:21 - The risk: You can still lose your shares even if you keep rolling 40:51 - LEAPS vs shares: The math on why options give you 2x+ the upside 42:52 - Where to find BTC Optioneer + final thoughts

Pio

22,697 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:
0:20

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 次观看 • 3 个月前

🔥HOW I'M GETTING FILTHY, DISGUSTINGLY RICH WITH MSTR + ASST CALLS - 7X BITCOIN RETURNS?!?🔥 MSTR is the giant capital markets war machine. ASST is the smaller creature in the basement discovering preferred stock and screaming “ACCUMULATE”. The trade is simple in concept: Bitcoin reverts higher. Treasury companies keep buying. Common equity exposure compounds. LEAPS turn the whole thing into financial plutonium. This is absolutely not financial advice. Options can and do expire worthless. I am a man on the internet with charts, caffeine, and a dangerous emotional relationship with Bitcoin treasury companies. But the math is fascinating. And if the market is underpricing the rate of BTC accumulation, the CEBE-adjusted common-equity exposure, and the reflexive premium expansion of these companies, this could be one of the most asymmetric setups in the entire Bitcoin ecosystem. MSTR is the cannon. ASST is the compressed spring. BITCOIN IS THE TRIGGER:
26:19

🔥HOW I'M GETTING FILTHY, DISGUSTINGLY RICH WITH MSTR + ASST CALLS - 7X BITCOIN RETURNS?!?🔥 MSTR is the giant capital markets war machine. ASST is the smaller creature in the basement discovering preferred stock and screaming “ACCUMULATE”. The trade is simple in concept: Bitcoin reverts higher. Treasury companies keep buying. Common equity exposure compounds. LEAPS turn the whole thing into financial plutonium. This is absolutely not financial advice. Options can and do expire worthless. I am a man on the internet with charts, caffeine, and a dangerous emotional relationship with Bitcoin treasury companies. But the math is fascinating. And if the market is underpricing the rate of BTC accumulation, the CEBE-adjusted common-equity exposure, and the reflexive premium expansion of these companies, this could be one of the most asymmetric setups in the entire Bitcoin ecosystem. MSTR is the cannon. ASST is the compressed spring. BITCOIN IS THE TRIGGER:

Adam Livingston

25,559 次观看 • 3 个月前

🔥BITCOIN HITS $80K - FULL MSTR + ASST UPDATE!🔥 Bitcoin just broke through $80,000 - but the price move may be only half the story. Strive just acquired another 1,110 BTC for $81.5 million, growing its Bitcoin treasury by roughly 5.5% in a single week. Meanwhile, Strategy has built approximately $6.69 billion of dollar liquidity around its enormous 840,447 BTC reserve while repurchasing $136 million of STRC. In this video I break down the new Strive and Strategy capital stacks, CEBE changes, what every $1,000 move in Bitcoin now does to Strategy's balance sheet, the historical Bitcoin cycle setup, and why the combination of rising BTC prices and increasingly sophisticated corporate Bitcoin treasury machines could become an extraordinary capital flywheel:
23:25

🔥BITCOIN HITS $80K - FULL MSTR + ASST UPDATE!🔥 Bitcoin just broke through $80,000 - but the price move may be only half the story. Strive just acquired another 1,110 BTC for $81.5 million, growing its Bitcoin treasury by roughly 5.5% in a single week. Meanwhile, Strategy has built approximately $6.69 billion of dollar liquidity around its enormous 840,447 BTC reserve while repurchasing $136 million of STRC. In this video I break down the new Strive and Strategy capital stacks, CEBE changes, what every $1,000 move in Bitcoin now does to Strategy's balance sheet, the historical Bitcoin cycle setup, and why the combination of rising BTC prices and increasingly sophisticated corporate Bitcoin treasury machines could become an extraordinary capital flywheel:

Adam Livingston

17,546 次观看 • 5 天前

🚨HOW TO 10-20x YOUR WEALTH IN UNDER 3 YEARS WITH ASST🚨 Are you tired of being a W-2 NPC who “diversifies” by buying paper towels at Costco and coping with a 0.4% raise? This video is a math-guided descent into the ASST thesis. How a Bitcoin treasury company can take one asset’s move, add an amplification cheat code, then stack BTC-per-share growth on top like a finance-layer lasagna your accountant begs you to stop eating. This is NOT hopium. All grounded, conservative assumptions. I walk through it from first principles, clean equations, simple scenarios If you want the sober version, watch something else. If you want the numbers and the mechanics, plus a little existential despair about working until 67, welcome home:
22:28

🚨HOW TO 10-20x YOUR WEALTH IN UNDER 3 YEARS WITH ASST🚨 Are you tired of being a W-2 NPC who “diversifies” by buying paper towels at Costco and coping with a 0.4% raise? This video is a math-guided descent into the ASST thesis. How a Bitcoin treasury company can take one asset’s move, add an amplification cheat code, then stack BTC-per-share growth on top like a finance-layer lasagna your accountant begs you to stop eating. This is NOT hopium. All grounded, conservative assumptions. I walk through it from first principles, clean equations, simple scenarios If you want the sober version, watch something else. If you want the numbers and the mechanics, plus a little existential despair about working until 67, welcome home:

Adam Livingston

10,715 次观看 • 6 个月前

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:
0:23

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,212 次观看 • 1 个月前

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:
0:23

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Adam Livingston

14,499 次观看 • 2 个月前

Digital credit is only a year old, which makes clear explanations & institutional risk framing essential. Nate Geraci asked the tough questions on digital credit, $SATA, $ASST, the $BTC drawdown & more. My full conversation on Crypto Prime. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Intro: Matt Cole on Strive and SATA 01:09 Strive’s shift into structured finance 02:44 ASST vs. SATA: amplified Bitcoin exposure vs. digital credit 07:28 What SATA is and how the preferred equity works 10:12 Why Strive calls SATA “digital credit” 13:32 Credit risk, Bitcoin drawdowns, and Strive’s reserves 17:46 Bitcoin return scenarios and SATA dividend sustainability 20:25 Bitcoin as collateral vs. cash-flowing assets 25:08 Does a 13% dividend mean higher risk? 29:47 How digital credit should be marketed 34:30 SATA vs. Strategy’s Stretch 36:25 Strategy, Michael Saylor, and Bitcoin’s market narrative 41:04 Why Bitcoin has drawn down 43:02 AI, IPOs, and capital flowing away from Bitcoin 43:44 OG Bitcoin holder selling pressure 47:20 What could bring Bitcoin momentum back 50:43 Closing thoughts
51:54

Digital credit is only a year old, which makes clear explanations & institutional risk framing essential. Nate Geraci asked the tough questions on digital credit, $SATA, $ASST, the $BTC drawdown & more. My full conversation on Crypto Prime. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Intro: Matt Cole on Strive and SATA 01:09 Strive’s shift into structured finance 02:44 ASST vs. SATA: amplified Bitcoin exposure vs. digital credit 07:28 What SATA is and how the preferred equity works 10:12 Why Strive calls SATA “digital credit” 13:32 Credit risk, Bitcoin drawdowns, and Strive’s reserves 17:46 Bitcoin return scenarios and SATA dividend sustainability 20:25 Bitcoin as collateral vs. cash-flowing assets 25:08 Does a 13% dividend mean higher risk? 29:47 How digital credit should be marketed 34:30 SATA vs. Strategy’s Stretch 36:25 Strategy, Michael Saylor, and Bitcoin’s market narrative 41:04 Why Bitcoin has drawn down 43:02 AI, IPOs, and capital flowing away from Bitcoin 43:44 OG Bitcoin holder selling pressure 47:20 What could bring Bitcoin momentum back 50:43 Closing thoughts

Matt Cole

19,386 次观看 • 1 个月前

What happens when Dal from Wealth Group gets on Omegle and challenges random people to guess the price of $BTC? 🎯 Find out what they think the price is currently trading at and if any of them win the prize for being correct! 👀
1:25

What happens when Dal from Wealth Group gets on Omegle and challenges random people to guess the price of $BTC? 🎯 Find out what they think the price is currently trading at and if any of them win the prize for being correct! 👀

Wealth Group

49,722 次观看 • 1 年前

Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate Episode 71: Liquidity Is The Moat In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down an explosive week across Bitcoin $BTC treasury markets, from Strategy $MSTR reaching 0% net leverage and expanding its cash reserves to Strive growing its Bitcoin stack and seeing major liquidity across $ASST and $SATA. We dig into why liquidity itself can become a powerful competitive moat, how rising short interest could amplify $ASST, and why Strive has chosen to let that pressure build rather than immediately satisfy large block demand. The conversation then turns to the macro setup, including a potentially weaker dollar, Treasury buybacks, rising long-term yields, and why those forces could create a backdrop for Bitcoin unlike anything it has experienced before. We close with the case for Bitcoin entering a broader melt-up in scarce assets, why the traditional four-year cycle may be breaking down, and why the crew believes investors still aren’t bullish enough. Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman. Timestamps: 00:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate 02:02 - Bitcoin Volatility Returns 03:40 - The SATA and ASST Two-Security Moat 12:44 - Building Liquidity Through the Bear Market 18:32 - Why SATA Stayed Near $100 28:50 - The Dollar, Treasury Yields and Bitcoin 30:15 - The Structural Dollar Bear Market 33:35 - Treasury Buybacks and Yield Intervention 38:34 - Bitcoin’s Grand Slam Macro Setup 40:44 - Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle vs. Gold 46:53 - Strive’s Positioning and Outlook
51:53

Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate Episode 71: Liquidity Is The Moat In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down an explosive week across Bitcoin $BTC treasury markets, from Strategy $MSTR reaching 0% net leverage and expanding its cash reserves to Strive growing its Bitcoin stack and seeing major liquidity across $ASST and $SATA. We dig into why liquidity itself can become a powerful competitive moat, how rising short interest could amplify $ASST, and why Strive has chosen to let that pressure build rather than immediately satisfy large block demand. The conversation then turns to the macro setup, including a potentially weaker dollar, Treasury buybacks, rising long-term yields, and why those forces could create a backdrop for Bitcoin unlike anything it has experienced before. We close with the case for Bitcoin entering a broader melt-up in scarce assets, why the traditional four-year cycle may be breaking down, and why the crew believes investors still aren’t bullish enough. Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Ben Werkman. Timestamps: 00:00 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate 02:02 - Bitcoin Volatility Returns 03:40 - The SATA and ASST Two-Security Moat 12:44 - Building Liquidity Through the Bear Market 18:32 - Why SATA Stayed Near $100 28:50 - The Dollar, Treasury Yields and Bitcoin 30:15 - The Structural Dollar Bear Market 33:35 - Treasury Buybacks and Yield Intervention 38:34 - Bitcoin’s Grand Slam Macro Setup 40:44 - Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle vs. Gold 46:53 - Strive’s Positioning and Outlook

The Hurdle Rate Podcast

118,787 次观看 • 4 天前

After yesterday I am currently holding 341,671 shares at an avg cost of 1.209 of $ASST The goal is to acquire 1/2 million shares over the next 2-4 weeks. I have gotten a lot of hate over this position. It’s actually very strange. I could care less, but what it does tell me, is that I’m definitely on the right path. Obviously I could be way off but I believe this stock trades between 16-22 in 2026. This would yield somewhere between $5,466,736.00 to $7,516,762.00. Here’s another insane prediction, that I obviously don’t know if this will happen, but if I believe $BTC will be 1mm to 3mm in 10 years, then I believe $ASST will be between 83-221 a share. So in 10 years this one investment could be between $28,358,693 to $75,509,291.00. And that’s at current share amount. Not the 1/2 million. So, when you ask me what are you going to do if it drops .20? Do you see how silly that question is? This investment is not for everyone and my suggestion is simply this. If you’re not convicted on $BTC and it’s replacement of fiat, then don’t invest in any crypto treasuries. Thanks for your attention on this matter. Many blessings to all of you and especially all the haters. My thesis attached below 👇🏼 Matt Cole
1:04

After yesterday I am currently holding 341,671 shares at an avg cost of 1.209 of $ASST The goal is to acquire 1/2 million shares over the next 2-4 weeks. I have gotten a lot of hate over this position. It’s actually very strange. I could care less, but what it does tell me, is that I’m definitely on the right path. Obviously I could be way off but I believe this stock trades between 16-22 in 2026. This would yield somewhere between $5,466,736.00 to $7,516,762.00. Here’s another insane prediction, that I obviously don’t know if this will happen, but if I believe $BTC will be 1mm to 3mm in 10 years, then I believe $ASST will be between 83-221 a share. So in 10 years this one investment could be between $28,358,693 to $75,509,291.00. And that’s at current share amount. Not the 1/2 million. So, when you ask me what are you going to do if it drops .20? Do you see how silly that question is? This investment is not for everyone and my suggestion is simply this. If you’re not convicted on $BTC and it’s replacement of fiat, then don’t invest in any crypto treasuries. Thanks for your attention on this matter. Many blessings to all of you and especially all the haters. My thesis attached below 👇🏼 Matt Cole

Boening Capital

78,282 次观看 • 7 个月前

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇
1:05:21

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇

One Chair

45,179 次观看 • 2 个月前