🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the...

Uploaded: 2026-07-22T16:28:28.000Z
Duration: PT23.000S
Channel: Adam Livingston

0:26

I think MSTR could go to around all-time high at only a 1.4x mNAV + $150k BTC. $150k Bitcoin is going to be incredibly cheap compared to the long term trend 1 year from now. If we start the climb back now, STRC gets turned back w/ $2b per month issued, and $500m of MSTR gets issued per month. This pace would still be under their 2026 YTD capital raising pace. The beach ball is being held underwater it's just waiting for Bitcoin to move.

Adam Livingston

113,938 views • 2 months ago

1:05:21

What if everyone is measuring $MSTR wrong? In this conversation with Adrian Morris, founding member of True North (True North), we challenge some of the biggest assumptions in the Bitcoin Treasury space: • Why mNAV is really a sentiment metric • Why Bitcoin per share isn't a valuation metric • Why Strategy shouldn't defend its mNAV • The real story behind Strategy selling 32 $BTC • Why $STRC and $SATA may evolve very differently than investors expect • Why AI is attracting some of Bitcoin's capital One of the most thought-provoking $MSTR conversations we've had. If Adrian is right, investors may be looking at $MSTR completely wrong. $MSTR $ASST $MPJPY 00:00 Adrian Morris' Bitcoin Journey & Why He Bought MSTR 05:02 The Real Meaning of mNAV (Market Sentiment) 10:10 Why Bitcoin Treasury mNAVs Eventually Collapse 11:22 Should Bitcoin Treasury Companies Defend Their mNAV? 15:56 The Fatal Flaw in mNAV Buybacks 17:57 Why Strategy Should NOT Sell Bitcoin to Buy Back Shares 20:15 Why Did Strategy Sell 32 Bitcoin? 23:55 MSTR Myths, Margin Calls & X Misinformation 25:38 Why Bitcoin Per Share May Be Misleading Investors 31:09 The Endgame for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 34:42 The Future: REITs, Options & Bitcoin Financial Products 36:46 STRC, SATA & Bitcoin Preferred Shares Explained 41:22 Does STRC Guidance Even Matter? 43:12 Why SATA Outperformed STRC 45:42 Daily Dividends: Innovation or Hype? 48:30 Will STRC & SATA Eventually Cut Dividends? 54:54 Is AI Stealing Capital From Bitcoin? 01:00:51 Can Bitcoin Become AI's Security Layer? 01:03:56 Adrian's Message to Bitcoin Investors Watch the full episode 👇

One Chair

45,179 views • 2 months ago

0:33

MSTR from $149 to $14,368 dollars per share is BEARISH. Assumptions: $2B/month preferred issuance (they're already doing this) 11.5% preferred cost (they never lower the rate, lol) 30% BTC CAGR (power law CAGR) 1.32x CEBE mNAV (multiple NEVER expands) Also, they NEVER issue common stock MSTR to buy more Bitcoin. Start today: 843,738 BTC 573,757 common equity BTC 163,144 CEBE sats/share $158.97 implied price Year 14: 2,064,691 BTC 1,942,234 common equity BTC 374,504 CEBE sats/share $14,368.51 implied price That is 90.4x in the model. Preferred balance goes from $15.5B to $351.5B. Senior claims fall from 270K BTC to 122K BTC. Claim ratio falls from 32.0% to 5.9%. This means they have so much room to issue more credit given this Bitcoin growth rate. Common equity BTC rises by 1.37M BTC. CEBE sats/share rise 129.6%. Shares rise 47.5%. If the Bitcoin treasury compounds faster than the fiat claims, the capital structure becomes a machine that transfers residual Bitcoin exposure back to common equity. This is Ownership Acceleration. CEBE is the scoreboard. Bullish Strategy. See you in 2040:

Adam Livingston

83,514 views • 2 months ago

24:09

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

Adam Livingston

23,786 views • 3 months ago

20:52

🔥I BOUGHT MORE MSTR BECAUSE THE MATH IS INSANE!🔥 In this video, I expose why Strategy (MSTR) is the most undervalued Bitcoin superweapon in the market. And why Wall Street still thinks it’s a Bitcoin ETF with a gambling problem. While your financial advisor is feeding your retirement into a 60/40 woodchipper, Saylor is out here issuing STRC like it’s methadone for bond managers. 11% yield, monthly payouts, and they don’t even realize they’re buying him more Bitcoin on your behalf. STRC is the fixed-income trojan horse. MSTR is the orange citadel it funds. I break down the STRC flywheel, the 5% mNAV premium arbitrage, the recursive BTC-per-share compounding mechanism, and how MSTR can grow your Bitcoin stack by 17%, 34%, or even 51% this year alone... WITHOUT A SINGLE DOLLAR OF NEW DILUTION! THIS IS THE ORANGE SINGULARITY:

Adam Livingston

31,581 views • 7 months ago

0:27

ASST from $17 to $793. From May 1st to May 22, the company has reported $150 million deployed into Bitcoin. Let's assume they raise even less. Let's go with $100m per month with SATA issuance. $100M/month preferred issuance buying BTC, 13% preferred cost, dividends paid via share issuance, CEBE mNAV held flat at 1.7x. Common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, zero common stock issued to buy Bitcoin. 30% BTC CAGR. Starting point: $17.67 ASST 16,500 BTC 14,080 CEBE sats/share 35.3% senior claim drag Year 5: $153/share 61,264 BTC 32,825 CEBE sats/share 8.7x from today Year 10: $793/share 73,320 BTC 45,845 CEBE sats/share 44.9x from today And the psychotic part is the model keeps CEBE mNAV flat at 1.7x the entire time. No multiple expansion required. The senior claim drag falls from 35.3% to 16.7% because fixed fiat claims get slowly humiliated by BTC appreciation. Bitcoin goes up, residual common equity exposure grows, and the bears are left screaming at a spreadsheet like it owes them child support. Bullish ASST.

Adam Livingston

47,944 views • 2 months ago

0:29

Metaplanet from $1.83 to $69. Model assumptions: $100M/month preferred issuance of MARS 6% preferred cost 30% BTC CAGR Sell common stock to pay dividends Zero common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, EVER CEBE mNAV linear expansion to 1.55x over 10 years. Start: 40,177 BTC 2,729 CEBE sats/share $1.83 implied price Year 10: 74,166 BTC 4,381 CEBE sats/share $69.12 implied price That is 37.8x in the model. And the share count only rises 10.7%. If you can raise fiat claims at 6% and buy Bitcoin compounding at 30%, the spread is the entire trade. CEBE is the scoreboard. Metaplanet is turning fiat liabilities into residual Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders. That is the flywheel once prefs get here. And what if they can raise more than $100m per month? The senior claim ratio of the balance sheet peaks at month 15 of this model. They have plenty of room to continue adding leverage. Bullish Metaplanet.

Adam Livingston

42,778 views • 2 months ago

0:53

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

Adam Livingston

122,179 views • 2 months ago

0:30

I TESTED EVERY POSSIBLE BITCOIN VS. MSTR TRADE No cherry-picked years or convenient cycle bottoms here. Every possible entry and exit across 1,496 shared trading days from August 10, 2020 through July 24, 2026. 1,118,260 holding periods. MSTR beat Bitcoin in 68.75% of them. But that headline conceals the real discovery... that MSTR was basically a coin toss over short periods. 1 week: 46.8% win rate 1 month: 47.2% 3 months: 48.0% 6 months: 52.0% 1 year: 54.4% Over weeks and months, MSTR was louder Bitcoin with a necktie and a caffeine problem. Then time entered the room. 2 years: 64.0% win rate 3 years: 86.7% 4 years: 100.0% 5 years: 84.5% The median 4-year MSTR investment produced 108.6% more terminal wealth than Bitcoin. That means the median MSTR holder finished with approximately 2.09× as much money as the equivalent Bitcoin holder. And when every holding period of at least a certain length is included: 1+ years: MSTR won 76.0% 2+ years: 86.9% 3+ years: 96.1% 4+ years: 96.6% 5+ years: 92.3% Across the entire dataset: Median MSTR return: +127.5% Median Bitcoin return: +62.2% Median MSTR wealth advantage: +33.1% From the beginning of the study: $10,000 in MSTR became $74,167. $10,000 in Bitcoin became $53,951. The decisive variable was time in the market. MSTR wins by giving the machine enough runway to work.

Adam Livingston

48,577 views • 1 month ago

0:20

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,417 views • 3 months ago

1:16:43

Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇

One Chair

32,736 views • 14 days ago

0:35

🔥METAPLANET = INSANE OPPORTUNITY🔥 I think everyone is SEVERELY underappreciating what Metaplanet is building out in Japan. If Metaplanet can borrow at 4.15% today and carry that debt until Bitcoin reaches $1 million, the economics for existing shareholders resemble selling common equity at more than TEN TIMES NAV. Yup. Imagine being able to issue equity to buy Bitcoin at a 10x mNAV. Let's break it down. The first BitBond issuance was tiny, roughly ¥200 million, or $1.3 million. The pipe behind it could eventually become enormous. Metaplanet can now issue ordinary yen-denominated bonds through its own securities subsidiary, pay investors around 4.15%, use the capital to buy Bitcoin, and roll the principal into new bonds every three years. The bondholders receive a fixed yield in yen. Metaplanet’s common shareholders capture everything Bitcoin earns above that cost of capital. Here’s how absurdly powerful the math gets. Metaplanet borrows $1 at 4.15% and buys $1 of Bitcoin. After 3 years, that $1 of debt has grown to approximately $1.13 if we assume the interest is financed and rolled. If Bitcoin doubles, the Bitcoin is worth $2. Pay the $1.13 obligation and common shareholders are left with $0.87 of incremental equity without issuing a single common share. Economically, that is equivalent to selling common equity at roughly 1.77× mNAV: $2.00 of Bitcoin ÷ $1.13 bond obligation = 1.77×. Starting with Bitcoin around $63,000: At $100,000 BTC, the bond behaves like equity issued at 1.41× mNAV. At $150,000 BTC, it behaves like equity issued at 2.11× mNAV. At $200,000 BTC, it behaves like equity issued at 2.81× mNAV. That matters enormously while Metaplanet’s common stock trades around or below NAV. Selling common shares down here would dilute existing shareholders. BitBonds allow the company to acquire more Bitcoin per share while waiting for the common-stock premium to return. Now extend this idea over the next decade. Assume Bitcoin rises from $63,000 to $1 million over 10 years. Every $1 of Bitcoin purchased today becomes $15.87. $1 borrowed at 4.15% and continuously rolled becomes approximately $1.50 owed. Common shareholders capture the remaining $14.37. The mNAV-equivalent financing multiple becomes: 15.87 ÷ 1.50 = 10.57× mNAV. Read that again. Yes. I'll repeat it for you. Metaplanet can borrow at 4.15% today and carry that debt until Bitcoin reaches $1 million, the economics for existing shareholders resemble selling common equity at more than TEN TIMES NAV. So I modeled a simple scenario. Metaplanet begins with 43,000 BTC at $63,000, giving it roughly $2.71 billion of Bitcoin. It then maintains 10% balance-sheet amplification all the way to $1 million Bitcoin. Gross BTC exposure stays at 1.10× common equity. New bonds are issued monthly at 4.15%, and every bond is rolled after three years. The opening issuance would be approximately $271 million, buying another 4,300 BTC immediately. As Bitcoin appreciates, the balance sheet creates additional borrowing capacity. Metaplanet keeps issuing enough to maintain the same conservative 10% amplification instead of allowing leverage to run wild. Average monthly issuance begins around $8 million during year one. Once the three-year rollover cycle starts, new issuance plus refinancings average approximately: $37 million per month in year 3 $72 million per month in year 6 $101 million per month in year 8 $192 million per month in year 10 Across the full decade, the company issues approximately $8.9 billion of gross bonds, including around $3.5 billion of refinanced maturities. Here is where Metaplanet ends when Bitcoin reaches $1 million (not a prediction, just a projection of these inputs): 59,727 BTC $59.73 billion of gross Bitcoin assets $5.43 billion of outstanding debt $54.30 billion of common NAV Without BitBonds, the original 43,000 BTC would simply be worth $43 billion. The bond strategy therefore creates approximately $11.30 billion of additional common equity. Same common shareholders. Same original 43,000 BTC starting point. Approximately 16,727 additional Bitcoin accumulated through controlled balance-sheet amplification. That produces 26.3% more NAV per share at $1 million Bitcoin without common-share dilution from the bond program. Of course, they still need buyers for the bonds. They must stagger maturities, maintain adequate liquidity, service the coupons and avoid building some psychotic refinancing wall during a Bitcoin bear market. The relevant hurdle is also BTC measured in yen, rather than dollars. But at 10% amplification, Bitcoin only needs to outperform a 4.15% yen cost of capital for the strategy to become accretive. Metaplanet owns 43,000 Bitcoin and now owns the securities platform capable of distributing its debt directly into Japan’s gigantic market for fixed-income savings. This is becoming much bigger than a Bitcoin treasury company. They are building a machine that converts Japanese demand for fixed yen yield into permanently increasing Bitcoin per common share. The bondholders get 4.15%. Metaplanet shareholders get everything Bitcoin does above it for the next decade. Short fiat. Long Bitcoin. This trade is OBSCENE:

Adam Livingston

24,600 views • 12 days ago

26:41

🔥 STRATEGY IS DRIVING BITCOIN TO $1 MILLION - 2026 WILL BE INSANE🔥 This is my best explanation of the MSTR bull case yet. If you need one video to watch to understand where this BITCOIN SINGULARITY is going over the next decade... THIS IS IT. Strategy has the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation pace in corporate history... and the STRC preferred stock is turning it into a runaway flywheel. From 88,568 BTC acquired in the first 75 days of 2026… to conservative 10-year models hitting 2.85 million BTC and $2.75 trillion NAV… to the aggressive scenario where they own 8.86 million BTC... This is the full, transparent math the market is still sleeping on... THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND:

Adam Livingston

21,819 views • 5 months ago

14:17

🔥THE ULTIMATE MSTR BULL CASE - 12 MINUTES TO BLOW YOUR MIND🔥 Strategy is going to buy ALL of the Bitcoin and they will be the most valuable company in the world. Don't believe me? Watch this video. In this video, I break down the craziest, and somehow still realistic, 10-year MSTR model we’ve built yet. Using a framework based on what Strategy has already done with MSTR and STRC capital raises, I show how Bitcoin NAV could compound into something utterly monstrous over the next decade, even with a built-in 2 week monthly cool-off period where ZERO CAPITAL is raised. This is where the thesis gets wild. Debt gets crushed as a percentage of enterprise value. Preferred scales, but stabilizes. Bitcoin NAV goes vertical. And the first thing that breaks in the model is not the balance sheet. It’s Bitcoin scarcity itself. THAT'S THE REAL STORY HERE:

Adam Livingston

22,529 views • 5 months ago

4:40

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

Fibonacci 🥷

40,287 views • 2 months ago

2:01

MSTR Shareholder Questions Strategy: I Bought $73K MSTR for My Kids. Now It’s Worth $20K At Strategy's Q2 2026 investor Q&A, livestreamed on Aug. 17, a shareholder said he had invested $73,000 in MSTR for each of his three children, that each investment is now worth only about $20,000, and asked whether the company would consider paying a dividend to common shareholders. CEO Phong Le responded that the company will not pay a common-stock dividend on MSTR, saying it is not the best use of capital. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said MSTR is essentially an amplified Bitcoin exposure with volatility likely well above Bitcoin itself, and that common-stock investors should have at least a four-year holding horizon — ideally seven to ten years.

Wu Blockchain

16,141 views • 8 days ago

0:20

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 views • 3 months ago

23:25

🔥BITCOIN HITS $80K - FULL MSTR + ASST UPDATE!🔥 Bitcoin just broke through $80,000 - but the price move may be only half the story. Strive just acquired another 1,110 BTC for $81.5 million, growing its Bitcoin treasury by roughly 5.5% in a single week. Meanwhile, Strategy has built approximately $6.69 billion of dollar liquidity around its enormous 840,447 BTC reserve while repurchasing $136 million of STRC. In this video I break down the new Strive and Strategy capital stacks, CEBE changes, what every $1,000 move in Bitcoin now does to Strategy's balance sheet, the historical Bitcoin cycle setup, and why the combination of rising BTC prices and increasingly sophisticated corporate Bitcoin treasury machines could become an extraordinary capital flywheel:

Adam Livingston

17,546 views • 3 days ago

11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 views • 11 months ago

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