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Australia’s Housing Ponzi Cannot Last - Top CEO Issues Dire Warning Australia’s housing market is now being described as a Ponzi scheme, and everyone’s in on it. Investors, banks, politicians and pretty much everyone else. House prices are completely detached from reality, but no one wants to do anything... show more

Biko Konstantinos

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14,961 views • 6 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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This Perfect Storm Will CRASH Australian House Prices The perfect storm is brewing which could completely crash Australian house prices. Australia’s housing bubble is so entrenched in the national psyche, that everyone just expects it will continue on forever – however there’s change in the air. Not one or two factors, but multiple factors all coinciding to create the perfect storm to take down Australian house prices.

This Perfect Storm Will CRASH Australian House Prices The perfect storm is brewing which could completely crash Australian house prices. Australia’s housing bubble is so entrenched in the national psyche, that everyone just expects it will continue on forever – however there’s change in the air. Not one or two factors, but multiple factors all coinciding to create the perfect storm to take down Australian house prices.

Biko Konstantinos

16,810 views • 5 months ago

Australia’s housing crisis isn’t only about failing to build enough new homes. It’s also about existing homes not returning to the market. Around 4.5 million Baby Boomers are now aged between 62 and 80, and many are staying in large family homes much longer than previous generations. The result is a demographic traffic jam. Younger families struggle to move into established suburbs, while older Australians often remain stuck in homes that no longer suit them because downsizing options are limited and stamp duty makes moving expensive. In the latest episode of Demographics Decoded Michael Yardney and I explore “Boomergeddon”, the delayed turnover of Baby Boomer housing, and what it means for property prices, wealth transfers and Australia’s housing market over the coming decades. Listen here:

Australia’s housing crisis isn’t only about failing to build enough new homes. It’s also about existing homes not returning to the market. Around 4.5 million Baby Boomers are now aged between 62 and 80, and many are staying in large family homes much longer than previous generations. The result is a demographic traffic jam. Younger families struggle to move into established suburbs, while older Australians often remain stuck in homes that no longer suit them because downsizing options are limited and stamp duty makes moving expensive. In the latest episode of Demographics Decoded Michael Yardney and I explore “Boomergeddon”, the delayed turnover of Baby Boomer housing, and what it means for property prices, wealth transfers and Australia’s housing market over the coming decades. Listen here:

Simon Kuestenmacher

17,368 views • 22 days ago

Massive Rug Pull To Crush Australian Housing Market | 2026 Warning Australia's housing market went berserk in 2025 - record highs obliterated, investors shocked with how much profits they’ve made, and the entire country convinced 2026 will deliver even more easy money. But a brutal shift is already ripping through the markets, completely off most people's radar. 2026 could see the mother of all rug pulls, leading to billions of lost equity, forced sales, and house prices finally smashed lower.

Massive Rug Pull To Crush Australian Housing Market | 2026 Warning Australia's housing market went berserk in 2025 - record highs obliterated, investors shocked with how much profits they’ve made, and the entire country convinced 2026 will deliver even more easy money. But a brutal shift is already ripping through the markets, completely off most people's radar. 2026 could see the mother of all rug pulls, leading to billions of lost equity, forced sales, and house prices finally smashed lower.

Biko Konstantinos

20,301 views • 7 months ago

Housing is a human right. No one in this city should have to worry about losing their home or end up on the streets due to systemic issues. Homelessness and the housing crisis are not two different problems, they are two sides of the same coin. And they have the same solution – permanent affordable housing. Trickle down economics is a fallacy. The market cannot provide affordable housing. Prices are only going up, driving people into homelessness, or out of the city entirely. Rae will build social housing on public lands and speed up housing production citywide, cutting red tape while keeping in place tenant and homeowner protections to ensure that people are able to keep their homes. Rae will streamline the city’s housing strategy, creating a Mayor’s Office of Housing For All to consolidate these different departments under one roof, with a public dashboard to track progress and hold us accountable. Read more on her housing policy platform on our website! ( 🌞🔗

Housing is a human right. No one in this city should have to worry about losing their home or end up on the streets due to systemic issues. Homelessness and the housing crisis are not two different problems, they are two sides of the same coin. And they have the same solution – permanent affordable housing. Trickle down economics is a fallacy. The market cannot provide affordable housing. Prices are only going up, driving people into homelessness, or out of the city entirely. Rae will build social housing on public lands and speed up housing production citywide, cutting red tape while keeping in place tenant and homeowner protections to ensure that people are able to keep their homes. Rae will streamline the city’s housing strategy, creating a Mayor’s Office of Housing For All to consolidate these different departments under one roof, with a public dashboard to track progress and hold us accountable. Read more on her housing policy platform on our website! ( 🌞🔗

Rae Huang

162,628 views • 3 months ago

Nick O’Neill says MicroStrategy didn’t start looking like a Ponzi until it introduced $STRC "It wasn’t a Ponzi at the beginning. It actually wasn’t until they introduced Stretch" "As long as the ATM is being used to pay dividend holders, then objectively the new investors that are buying are being used to pay out the old investors" "That is literally, by definition, how a Ponzi operates" "The nuanced take is that the principal comes from the market. But still, regardless, you are paying somebody out based on this"

Nick O’Neill says MicroStrategy didn’t start looking like a Ponzi until it introduced $STRC "It wasn’t a Ponzi at the beginning. It actually wasn’t until they introduced Stretch" "As long as the ATM is being used to pay dividend holders, then objectively the new investors that are buying are being used to pay out the old investors" "That is literally, by definition, how a Ponzi operates" "The nuanced take is that the principal comes from the market. But still, regardless, you are paying somebody out based on this"

Shadooow

61,071 views • 2 months ago

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS HOW 2008 CRASH STARTS AGAIN!! The US housing market is now at one of the most UNAFFORDABLE points in history. This is a $47 TRILLION market, and it is now breaking affordability. Real US home prices just hit about 420. The 2006 bubble peak was about 266. And if you think this is just another scary chart YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. From 2000 to 2026, median home prices rose about 217%, while income rose about 153%. And rates are the killer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still about 6.09%. That is HIGH enough to break demand. At 6%, the monthly payment is the real problem. Prices can go sideways and buyers still tap out. And a small move in rates matters way more than people think. Another 0.50% from here is not noise. It is a payment shock. Rates do NOT need to go to 8% to freeze housing. 6% is already enough to cap buyers and kill volume. Builders are saying the same thing. They keep warning that elevated mortgage rates are the biggest problem, and many expect that problem to stay in 2026. Builder confidence is still weak too. THIS IS EXACTLY HOW 2006 STARTS. Payment stress stays HIGH. And it does NOT matter if prices stop going up, because the monthly bill is still heavy enough to push buyers out. So demand does NOT collapse in one headline. It just quietly disappears. Then the sequence always looks the same. - Transactions die first, because people cannot qualify or they do not want to lock in a brutal payment. - Then confidence dies, because everyone sees listings sit longer and concessions start showing up. - Then the real economy feels it, because housing is not just housing, it is moving, renovations, furniture, credit creation, fees, and jobs. That is why 2006 did NOT crash in one day. It froze. Then it cracked. Then it broke. And most people only noticed when the damage was already everywhere. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨 WARNING: THIS IS HOW 2008 CRASH STARTS AGAIN!! The US housing market is now at one of the most UNAFFORDABLE points in history. This is a $47 TRILLION market, and it is now breaking affordability. Real US home prices just hit about 420. The 2006 bubble peak was about 266. And if you think this is just another scary chart YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG. From 2000 to 2026, median home prices rose about 217%, while income rose about 153%. And rates are the killer. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still about 6.09%. That is HIGH enough to break demand. At 6%, the monthly payment is the real problem. Prices can go sideways and buyers still tap out. And a small move in rates matters way more than people think. Another 0.50% from here is not noise. It is a payment shock. Rates do NOT need to go to 8% to freeze housing. 6% is already enough to cap buyers and kill volume. Builders are saying the same thing. They keep warning that elevated mortgage rates are the biggest problem, and many expect that problem to stay in 2026. Builder confidence is still weak too. THIS IS EXACTLY HOW 2006 STARTS. Payment stress stays HIGH. And it does NOT matter if prices stop going up, because the monthly bill is still heavy enough to push buyers out. So demand does NOT collapse in one headline. It just quietly disappears. Then the sequence always looks the same. - Transactions die first, because people cannot qualify or they do not want to lock in a brutal payment. - Then confidence dies, because everyone sees listings sit longer and concessions start showing up. - Then the real economy feels it, because housing is not just housing, it is moving, renovations, furniture, credit creation, fees, and jobs. That is why 2006 did NOT crash in one day. It froze. Then it cracked. Then it broke. And most people only noticed when the damage was already everywhere. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

184,343 views • 4 months ago

📣📣WHAT MAINSTREAM MEDIA IS NOT TELLING YOU ABOUT GOLD & SILVER 🚨🔥🚨 Mainstream media never tells the full story. They push a narrative to hide the real story. The truth is it was MARKET MANIPULATION IN THE PAPER MARKET. This story is far from over and Failure to Deliver in the near future is a real possibility. Gold and Silver exposes the entire Ponzi scheme.

📣📣WHAT MAINSTREAM MEDIA IS NOT TELLING YOU ABOUT GOLD & SILVER 🚨🔥🚨 Mainstream media never tells the full story. They push a narrative to hide the real story. The truth is it was MARKET MANIPULATION IN THE PAPER MARKET. This story is far from over and Failure to Deliver in the near future is a real possibility. Gold and Silver exposes the entire Ponzi scheme.

Stephanie

42,887 views • 10 months ago

Just floored a motion calling on Fingal County Council asking - "That this Council write to Minister James Browne TD., Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage, insisting that housing supports such as the Help to Buy Scheme, Local Government Home Loan, Vacant Property Refurbishment Grant, First Home Scheme, Rent Tax Credit, HAP, RAS, Cost Rental Scheme, Affordable Purchase Homes, Tenant Purchase Scheme and Social Housing be ringfenced to exclude all non-Irish nationals from accessing these supports.” No one seconded it, because there is a serious lack of will from your elected officials in prioritising you, your children and their futures, more concerned about being politically correct than anything else.

Just floored a motion calling on Fingal County Council asking - "That this Council write to Minister James Browne TD., Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage, insisting that housing supports such as the Help to Buy Scheme, Local Government Home Loan, Vacant Property Refurbishment Grant, First Home Scheme, Rent Tax Credit, HAP, RAS, Cost Rental Scheme, Affordable Purchase Homes, Tenant Purchase Scheme and Social Housing be ringfenced to exclude all non-Irish nationals from accessing these supports.” No one seconded it, because there is a serious lack of will from your elected officials in prioritising you, your children and their futures, more concerned about being politically correct than anything else.

Cllr. Patrick Quinlan

42,754 views • 5 months ago

This is a fantastic point. In August 2007 the housing market froze up. No one could buy. No one could sell. I owed $505K on a $600K house. The market cut it in half. 10 million bankruptcies and foreclosures. Obama helped 3 mil. We were collateral damage. (Now mortgage free 😆)

This is a fantastic point. In August 2007 the housing market froze up. No one could buy. No one could sell. I owed $505K on a $600K house. The market cut it in half. 10 million bankruptcies and foreclosures. Obama helped 3 mil. We were collateral damage. (Now mortgage free 😆)

Mark J Parker, Sr

193,527 views • 2 months ago

Thomas Sowell on why rent control is so damaging: “If rent control is severe, people either reduce the amount of housing they build or they stop building housing altogether.” “Political authorities are then confronted with a situation where there’s no new housing built and the old housing is wearing out—usually faster under rent control because the landlords don’t have to keep it up as much.” “So they step in and have some kind of modification. They say, ‘We are trying to protect the poor, so we won’t regulate luxury housing.’” “Of course, luxury housing and ordinary housing use much the same labor and the same materials. Therefore, all the materials that would have otherwise gone into making ordinary housing go into building luxury housing.”

Thomas Sowell on why rent control is so damaging: “If rent control is severe, people either reduce the amount of housing they build or they stop building housing altogether.” “Political authorities are then confronted with a situation where there’s no new housing built and the old housing is wearing out—usually faster under rent control because the landlords don’t have to keep it up as much.” “So they step in and have some kind of modification. They say, ‘We are trying to protect the poor, so we won’t regulate luxury housing.’” “Of course, luxury housing and ordinary housing use much the same labor and the same materials. Therefore, all the materials that would have otherwise gone into making ordinary housing go into building luxury housing.”

Thomas Sowell Daily

30,630 views • 2 months ago

Spent the day at LeFrak City in Queens talking to residents about affordable housing With a 1% vacancy rate, NYC is in the midst of a housing crisis — how do you solve it? Build, build, build. There are over 1K sites ready to be developed today. Cut the red tape, expedite the permitting process and get shovels in the ground, generating good paying jobs in the process. My plan is to build 500K units of new housing to increase supply and drive costs down for everyone — market rate and rent regulated I did it as Housing Secretary, and with LGA airport, Moynihan Train Hall and the 2nd avenue subway — we can do it again now

Spent the day at LeFrak City in Queens talking to residents about affordable housing With a 1% vacancy rate, NYC is in the midst of a housing crisis — how do you solve it? Build, build, build. There are over 1K sites ready to be developed today. Cut the red tape, expedite the permitting process and get shovels in the ground, generating good paying jobs in the process. My plan is to build 500K units of new housing to increase supply and drive costs down for everyone — market rate and rent regulated I did it as Housing Secretary, and with LGA airport, Moynihan Train Hall and the 2nd avenue subway — we can do it again now

Andrew Cuomo

41,295 views • 1 year ago

Australia’s housing obsession is one of its greatest weaknesses. Rising house prices are not a sign of prosperity. What they actually tell you is that more money is being borrowed from the banking sector to buy homes. The cause of rising house prices is rising household debt, and that is unproductive. House prices are now five times more expensive than consumer goods compared to 1970. We should never have allowed that to happen. Housing should not be an asset. It is not something you should profit out of. It is something you should live in. The people who really benefit from rising house prices are real estate agents and property developers, not the families who live in them. We are paupers living inside castles. Paying a fortune on the mortgage, a fortune on private schools, and out of the remainder, just trying to live. For the more information, check out the comment section, #SteveKeen #AustraliaProperty #HousingCrisis #MortgageDebt #Economics #HousingAffordability

Australia’s housing obsession is one of its greatest weaknesses. Rising house prices are not a sign of prosperity. What they actually tell you is that more money is being borrowed from the banking sector to buy homes. The cause of rising house prices is rising household debt, and that is unproductive. House prices are now five times more expensive than consumer goods compared to 1970. We should never have allowed that to happen. Housing should not be an asset. It is not something you should profit out of. It is something you should live in. The people who really benefit from rising house prices are real estate agents and property developers, not the families who live in them. We are paupers living inside castles. Paying a fortune on the mortgage, a fortune on private schools, and out of the remainder, just trying to live. For the more information, check out the comment section, #SteveKeen #AustraliaProperty #HousingCrisis #MortgageDebt #Economics #HousingAffordability

Prof. Steve Keen

60,030 views • 2 months ago

Tomorrow I'm sitting down with Riley Meik (Riley Meik), founder and CEO of The American Housing Corporation. He came out of aerospace, with a stint at SpaceX, before turning his attention to the housing crisis. Most people assume a company like his is trying to reinvent the entire industry. It isn't. "In hard tech, you only want to have to perform one miracle at a time. And if your business relies on multiple miracles, your odds of success are significantly lower." So they picked one. The way the homes are actually built. "We are going to do one thing different, and that's the way we build our homes. When you're inside of it, you shouldn't really know that it was built in a factory. It just looks like a nice house." Everything else, the financing, the land, the banks, he keeps about as conventional as it gets. In tomorrow's clip, Riley breaks down the focus behind doing one thing differently and nothing else.

Tomorrow I'm sitting down with Riley Meik (Riley Meik), founder and CEO of The American Housing Corporation. He came out of aerospace, with a stint at SpaceX, before turning his attention to the housing crisis. Most people assume a company like his is trying to reinvent the entire industry. It isn't. "In hard tech, you only want to have to perform one miracle at a time. And if your business relies on multiple miracles, your odds of success are significantly lower." So they picked one. The way the homes are actually built. "We are going to do one thing different, and that's the way we build our homes. When you're inside of it, you shouldn't really know that it was built in a factory. It just looks like a nice house." Everything else, the financing, the land, the banks, he keeps about as conventional as it gets. In tomorrow's clip, Riley breaks down the focus behind doing one thing differently and nothing else.

Chris Powers

13,829 views • 1 month ago

How can we understand the power of ideology? Stephen Kotkin offers up NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani as an example: “So there's this young kid who's really adept at social media who just looks like he won the primary for a Democratic candidate for mayor in New York City. And one of the things he wants to do is freeze rents because he wants more affordable housing. So he's a complete idiot in terms of facts. The way to get more affordable housing is to build more housing. If supply massively increases and it exceeds demand, the price has to go down. It's proven again and again and again. And what rent control does or freezing of rent, it inhibits the building of new housing. Because who's going to build new housing when you can't make money off of it? Rent control is what produces the lack of affordable housing in the first place. So he sees what's the problem as the solution now. Now, is he a fool? No, he's a really bright guy. He's very well educated.”

How can we understand the power of ideology? Stephen Kotkin offers up NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani as an example: “So there's this young kid who's really adept at social media who just looks like he won the primary for a Democratic candidate for mayor in New York City. And one of the things he wants to do is freeze rents because he wants more affordable housing. So he's a complete idiot in terms of facts. The way to get more affordable housing is to build more housing. If supply massively increases and it exceeds demand, the price has to go down. It's proven again and again and again. And what rent control does or freezing of rent, it inhibits the building of new housing. Because who's going to build new housing when you can't make money off of it? Rent control is what produces the lack of affordable housing in the first place. So he sees what's the problem as the solution now. Now, is he a fool? No, he's a really bright guy. He's very well educated.”

Dwarkesh Podcast

26,591 views • 1 year ago

Rent Caps Don’t Work Govt intervention in housing drives prices up. "Every time the government gets involved in a market, it distorts the market. It limits the flow of liquidity and it limits the market finding lower price" “The government is now trying to limit what a landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it's ripped out all of the incentive for landlords to buy and own these buildings… there's no incentive to go and build new housing" "All of which create this perfect storm of disaster where we're just raising our hands and you know what we say? ‘Please government do more.’ And if the government does more, I can tell you one thing for sure: prices are going to go up even more." … sounds familiar! 🇮🇪

Rent Caps Don’t Work Govt intervention in housing drives prices up. "Every time the government gets involved in a market, it distorts the market. It limits the flow of liquidity and it limits the market finding lower price" “The government is now trying to limit what a landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it's ripped out all of the incentive for landlords to buy and own these buildings… there's no incentive to go and build new housing" "All of which create this perfect storm of disaster where we're just raising our hands and you know what we say? ‘Please government do more.’ And if the government does more, I can tell you one thing for sure: prices are going to go up even more." … sounds familiar! 🇮🇪

Nick Delehanty 🇮🇪

12,312 views • 9 months ago

🚨 U.S. HOUSING MARKET IS REPEATING 2008 CRISIS Sellers now outnumber buyers by 630,000 - the widest gap ever recorded The numbers: - Sellers: 1,989,027 - Buyers: 1,359,219 There are now 1.46 sellers for every buyer From 2014 to 2019, this ratio was inverted - buyers led. That's what held prices up It flipped in 2022. Now it's the most extreme reading on record When supply doubles up on demand, prices break. Always And Americans hold most of their wealth in home equity - so this isn't just a housing story I've seen this setup once before. It was 2007 NOTIFS ON!

🚨 U.S. HOUSING MARKET IS REPEATING 2008 CRISIS Sellers now outnumber buyers by 630,000 - the widest gap ever recorded The numbers: - Sellers: 1,989,027 - Buyers: 1,359,219 There are now 1.46 sellers for every buyer From 2014 to 2019, this ratio was inverted - buyers led. That's what held prices up It flipped in 2022. Now it's the most extreme reading on record When supply doubles up on demand, prices break. Always And Americans hold most of their wealth in home equity - so this isn't just a housing story I've seen this setup once before. It was 2007 NOTIFS ON!

NoName

211,255 views • 3 months ago

One of the most significant moments from the Trump Davos speech was when he said the quiet part out loud You cannot lower housing costs for young people without destroying millions in wealth for boomers "Every time you make it more affordable for somebody to own a house cheaply, you are actually hurting the value of those houses. I don't want to do anything to hurt the value of their house. If I wanted to crush the housing market, I could do that so fast that people could buy houses. But you would destroy people who already have houses." Our politicians are sacrificing people in their 20s and 30s for the prosperity of boomers Let that sink in

One of the most significant moments from the Trump Davos speech was when he said the quiet part out loud You cannot lower housing costs for young people without destroying millions in wealth for boomers "Every time you make it more affordable for somebody to own a house cheaply, you are actually hurting the value of those houses. I don't want to do anything to hurt the value of their house. If I wanted to crush the housing market, I could do that so fast that people could buy houses. But you would destroy people who already have houses." Our politicians are sacrificing people in their 20s and 30s for the prosperity of boomers Let that sink in

Boring_Business

6,681,349 views • 7 months ago

The Housing Crash Nobody Wants to Talk About Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Melody Wright Melody Wright and Adam Taggart discuss why the U.S. housing market could be headed for a prolonged downturn that may ultimately prove worse than the 2008 housing crash. * The U.S. housing market may look stable on the surface, but the biggest problems are only beginning to emerge. While national home prices have not fallen significantly, Melody believes the market is effectively frozen and could be headed for a correction that ultimately exceeds the Global Financial Crisis in both depth and duration. * The core issue isn't supply—it's demand. There simply aren't enough qualified buyers. The spring selling season, normally the strongest period for home sales, was a major disappointment. Lower mortgage rates early in the year briefly created optimism, but geopolitical uncertainty quickly reversed that momentum. As a result, housing activity remains sluggish. * The buyers who are still transacting fall into two main groups: affluent households purchasing higher-end homes and buyers using government-backed financing programs such as FHA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. Outside those segments, affordability has become a major obstacle, leaving much of the market without sufficient demand. * The market is also becoming increasingly bifurcated. In parts of the South and West, home sales have picked up compared to last year, but prices are declining as sellers accept lower offers to complete transactions. That's genuine price discovery. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see weak sales volumes, with June transactions down roughly 7% year over year. Because so few homes are changing hands, median prices have remained relatively stable, masking underlying weakness. * Melody argues that this cycle differs from 2008 in several important ways. One major concern is demographics. Younger generations simply don't have the purchasing power needed to replace aging homeowners at current price levels. Affordability challenges, higher living costs, and slower household formation limit the pool of future buyers. Another difference is the absence of a likely rescue from institutional investors. After the financial crisis, large firms purchased distressed homes and converted them into rental properties, helping stabilize the market. Melody doubts that level of institutional buying will return during this cycle. If private demand remains weak, the government could eventually become the buyer of last resort by purchasing excess housing inventory and converting it into affordable housing programs. * The timeline is another key part of the thesis. The previous housing downturn took roughly four to five years to bottom, but this cycle could last even longer because demographic pressures may persist into the mid-2030s. Instead of a sharp collapse followed by a quick recovery, Melody expects a prolonged period of stagnation and gradual price adjustment. * One event that could dramatically accelerate the process would be a major stock market correction. A significant decline in equities $SPX $QQQ would reduce household wealth, weaken consumer confidence, and further erode purchasing power, potentially causing housing prices to fall much faster than they otherwise would. * So, today's housing market isn't healthy simply because national prices remain elevated. Beneath the surface, demand is weak, affordability remains stretched, regional markets are diverging, and long-term structural forces continue to point toward a prolonged housing downturn that many investors may be underestimating. #housingmarket 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Melody Wright Melody Wright by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

The Housing Crash Nobody Wants to Talk About Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Melody Wright Melody Wright and Adam Taggart discuss why the U.S. housing market could be headed for a prolonged downturn that may ultimately prove worse than the 2008 housing crash. * The U.S. housing market may look stable on the surface, but the biggest problems are only beginning to emerge. While national home prices have not fallen significantly, Melody believes the market is effectively frozen and could be headed for a correction that ultimately exceeds the Global Financial Crisis in both depth and duration. * The core issue isn't supply—it's demand. There simply aren't enough qualified buyers. The spring selling season, normally the strongest period for home sales, was a major disappointment. Lower mortgage rates early in the year briefly created optimism, but geopolitical uncertainty quickly reversed that momentum. As a result, housing activity remains sluggish. * The buyers who are still transacting fall into two main groups: affluent households purchasing higher-end homes and buyers using government-backed financing programs such as FHA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. Outside those segments, affordability has become a major obstacle, leaving much of the market without sufficient demand. * The market is also becoming increasingly bifurcated. In parts of the South and West, home sales have picked up compared to last year, but prices are declining as sellers accept lower offers to complete transactions. That's genuine price discovery. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see weak sales volumes, with June transactions down roughly 7% year over year. Because so few homes are changing hands, median prices have remained relatively stable, masking underlying weakness. * Melody argues that this cycle differs from 2008 in several important ways. One major concern is demographics. Younger generations simply don't have the purchasing power needed to replace aging homeowners at current price levels. Affordability challenges, higher living costs, and slower household formation limit the pool of future buyers. Another difference is the absence of a likely rescue from institutional investors. After the financial crisis, large firms purchased distressed homes and converted them into rental properties, helping stabilize the market. Melody doubts that level of institutional buying will return during this cycle. If private demand remains weak, the government could eventually become the buyer of last resort by purchasing excess housing inventory and converting it into affordable housing programs. * The timeline is another key part of the thesis. The previous housing downturn took roughly four to five years to bottom, but this cycle could last even longer because demographic pressures may persist into the mid-2030s. Instead of a sharp collapse followed by a quick recovery, Melody expects a prolonged period of stagnation and gradual price adjustment. * One event that could dramatically accelerate the process would be a major stock market correction. A significant decline in equities $SPX $QQQ would reduce household wealth, weaken consumer confidence, and further erode purchasing power, potentially causing housing prices to fall much faster than they otherwise would. * So, today's housing market isn't healthy simply because national prices remain elevated. Beneath the surface, demand is weak, affordability remains stretched, regional markets are diverging, and long-term structural forces continue to point toward a prolonged housing downturn that many investors may be underestimating. #housingmarket 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Melody Wright Melody Wright by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Thoughtful Money®

16,535 views • 1 month ago

WOW 🚨 Connecticut Senator Ryan Fazio exposes Democrats introduced housing bill HB8002 to take away local and city control of housing JUST ONE HOUR before it was going to be voted on so residents wouldn’t know They then rushed it through, voted and passed it. It’s now law “People across our state are outraged to learn that a 53 section omnibus housing bill taking away so much local control of decision making from our towns and cities could be passed after it was released just ONE HOUR before debating and voting started on the State House of Representatives floor. But this is nothing new for Governor Lamont and the leadership of this state legislature. They've been operating in this way for years.” Democrats are so damn corrupt

WOW 🚨 Connecticut Senator Ryan Fazio exposes Democrats introduced housing bill HB8002 to take away local and city control of housing JUST ONE HOUR before it was going to be voted on so residents wouldn’t know They then rushed it through, voted and passed it. It’s now law “People across our state are outraged to learn that a 53 section omnibus housing bill taking away so much local control of decision making from our towns and cities could be passed after it was released just ONE HOUR before debating and voting started on the State House of Representatives floor. But this is nothing new for Governor Lamont and the leadership of this state legislature. They've been operating in this way for years.” Democrats are so damn corrupt

Wall Street Apes

155,591 views • 8 months ago