Because this got people riled up in the replies. Yes, it is a valid position, especially as a GOP partisan, that Rs will hold the House. Could it be hilariously wrong? Of course. Can it live alongside a toss-up Senate? Of course not. But the structural path is straightforward.

The polls have been wrong before, but in this case the polls would have to be astronomically wrong for the GOP to hold the house. How much above non-zero of a chance are you seriously looking at here?

I think apply probability is silly here except as a means of soothing dem neurosis. I wouldn't bet on it being more than 10% outcome, but that's because I care more about being right than being convicted in the idea of my side doing well.

I was mostly being rhetorical about the probability, but I appreciate you humoring me.

This clip came from back in June, so the terrain has shifted a bit, but less than I would have guessed. They clipped out contextual talk about Cook ratings, but you're still looking at 209 seats with Rs favored, with 21 toss-ups (16R/5D), meaning Rs "only" need to hold 9 (42%).

What people are forgetting 👇👇👇

It’s only valid if your base case is a 2020-magnitude national polling error, right?

I suppose so, but that just speaks to the massive gap between the race by race handicapping of the House and the macro indicators. It'll have resolve in one direction or the other.

By "race-by-race handicapping" do you mean expert ratings like Cook/IE/Crystal Ball, which have a well-documented record of being lagging indicators, particularly in midterms? If not, what are you referring to?

As spelled out in the clip and follow up, yes

I think your point of that the R's keeping the House can't live alongside a toss-up Senate is key in that worldview.

Right, the pushback mostly missed the point!

In theory you can maybe determine how people will operationalize that worldview from how they send money to senate races? Even if you think Rs can hold the house, I assume that's predicated on spending on the toss-ups, but where do you put Senate $ if you think theyll hold house?

It’s a delusional position, not a valid position. It’s a coping mechanism for Republican partisans who are completely out of touch with the likely mid-term electoral make-up and the current feelings of American voters.

BK hates you

Keith’s bio says contrarian investor and he is buddies with Peter Thiel, the replies he scoffs at the idea of betting on a gop majority at 15% odds. Seems like that’s just lip service.

You can make a valid case for something with 15-20% odds but that's different than making a valid case the true odds should be 50%?

Oh I personally think the odds are lower, but I don't think a a strong likelihood is the threshold for validity (and the point here was mostly about coherence.)

It's just the ppl who think the house is coin flip/lean R are probably coherent because they think the Senate is safe R. Neither seem like a reasonable position at this point.

“Especially as a GOP partisan” What the hell is that supposed to mean

Faggot pig

If you still believe this on November 2 we know you're a hack

This is why when Talarico wins in Texas the Republican freakout is going to be so fun to watch 🍿

Wow way to really make your point by couching it immediately