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Bitcoin exploded 7% through overhead resistance and above the cloud, but I’m not treating one liquidation-driven candle as proof that the bottom is in. Treasury debt buybacks and a historic short squeeze drove the move, so I’m watching the 69,200 resistance cluster and the 72,204 continuation target while allowing...

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Aaron Dishner

19,241 subscribers

13,365 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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24 Kommentare

Profilbild von positive vibez
positive vibezvor 1 Monat

Lol. I actually agree with you. bottom between 38 to 48

Profilbild von RacerX🚀
RacerX🚀vor 1 Monat

Aaron will die on his 38k mountain lol. I told you in June we bottomed Aaron, you're too zoomed into your "indicators" to see the bigger market picture. Your followers will "over trade" watching you and LOSE MONEY. BUY QUALITY ALTS NOW AND HODL

Profilbild von Braveheart619
Braveheart619vor 1 Monat

$Floki warned you @bloomberg was FUDing the CryptoVerse 8/12/26 Trust but verify.😎

Profilbild von bachooch
bachoochvor 1 Monat

We’re at 72k now What’s the next unlikely level we’re probably not gonna hit ?

Profilbild von Konstantin
Konstantinvor 1 Monat

Next fib level hit. But I still see a clear picture about this being a nothing burger. I will pin this post to recheck on it on 15th of October - way closer to the bottom.

Profilbild von RacerX🚀
RacerX🚀vor 1 Monat

This is not nothing. Bitcoin just closed its first daily candle above the 1D 200 SMA since November. Every single time in Bitcoins history that it has done this, it has marked the end of the bear market. Aaron is leading you all to the Slaughter House.

Profilbild von Dr Clean 🍎🍎🍎
Dr Clean 🍎🍎🍎vor 1 Monat

Keep watching until $90K …

Profilbild von Lošinj Coin
Lošinj Coinvor 1 Monat

Looks Like you were crying all night, you should apologise not only For Being late but For your totally wrong bearish bias.

Profilbild von RacerX🚀
RacerX🚀vor 1 Monat

What Aaron is not smart enough to understand is NOTHING stays the same. GLI is rising while in previous bear markets it was falling, The ISM is over 55, Ethereum is showing huge strength, alts already bottomed. First real top for Bitcoin was June '25, with rising RSI.

Profilbild von Rudolf Kalousek
Rudolf Kalousekvor 1 Monat

😂

Profilbild von Dolce
Dolcevor 1 Monat

@MooninPapa altseason start ?The graphics matter

Profilbild von Aaron Dishner
Aaron Dishnervor 1 Monat

🔥 Bitunix Moonin Papa Exclusive Campaign: Tiered Futures Bonus rewards are available. Registration through this link is required; terms, availability, verification, and regional restrictions apply. I’m an independent affiliate and may earn a commission. Futures trading carries a high risk of loss. 🎲 Moonin Papa BINGO: 🥇 Better Traders Club: 📚 Courses: 🌐 Official links:

Profilbild von CamStonx
CamStonxvor 1 Monat

You are married to your beliefs. BTC has defied all of your conditions and you still won’t pivot. You might be true though .

Profilbild von truthandhonor
truthandhonorvor 1 Monat

Dishner still smiling with all his shorts? Looks like he’s sweating balz!

Profilbild von Habeeb AhTay
Habeeb AhTayvor 1 Monat

Salute! Not many were ready for that move if they’ve been trading and shorting majors ! I appreciate your knowledge Shay and accountability!

Profilbild von positive vibez
positive vibezvor 1 Monat

I agree with you totally that bottom is not in. These were liquidations. I was just worried because your video was late you got liquidated. Glad you survived kid

Profilbild von Olivier Langlois
Olivier Langloisvor 1 Monat

TBH, since last week, a lot of events were planned in DC for Wednesday but nobody was expecting that this would be the catalyst for this big pump... I am done trying to predict markets (I'm very bad at it). I just adapt to what they do...

Profilbild von Dot connector
Dot connectorvor 1 Monat

Fair skepticism, but the candle wasn't the story — the bid underneath it was. $517M of ETF spot demand in one day doesn't liquidate anyone. Squeezes fade. A Treasury standing bid doesn't.

Profilbild von JuboFrero
JuboFrerovor 1 Monat

Thank you for this update ❤️

Profilbild von jorge Romero
jorge Romerovor 1 Monat

You also have to pay attention to the essent of why the tides are turning.

Profilbild von Isaiah Jacot-Guillarmod DC
Isaiah Jacot-Guillarmod DCvor 1 Monat

You are making videos everyday. You’re gifting teaching and helping strangers make money. No one should crying about your time. I’m grateful for whatever you give. Thanks!

Profilbild von Last Son of Krypto
Last Son of Kryptovor 1 Monat

Aaron & @FefeDemeny are the only 2 who have helped save me money this cycle. Moon boys will always get wrecked

Profilbild von Olivier Langlois
Olivier Langloisvor 1 Monat

hey... no worries about the video delay. You have the best TA videos on X and on top of it they are free... When markets suddenly and unexpectedly change regime, if you are actively trading, you have a lot of work to do with your open positions. take it easy Aaron, everything is cool

Profilbild von jorge Romero
jorge Romerovor 1 Monat

Markets are a two way story.

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Aaron Dishner

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Aaron Dishner

16,600 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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Aaron Dishner

12,024 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

BTC wicked up to 79,760, almost 80,000, on Friday before news pumped and dumped it right back down. I don't think this is a predictive wick, because this rally has already been running for a while, so I'm calling it a pump and dump wick. Bitcoin still closed above the cloud with the TBO lines separating, but if we lose 76,706 at the 0.786 fib, I expect a quick dip to 72K. Ethereum shot up almost 10% to 2665 with all four TBO lines pointing up, yet it still didn't close above resistance. Stablecoin dominance got rejected at the fast line, Bitcoin dominance dropped 0.33% as Ethereum led, and I'm still treating Others as a buy the dip opportunity. In TradFi, DXY didn't close inside the cloud, and USDJPY fell to 153.468 with RSI barely oversold, which I'd love to see continue all the way down to 140. The Euro lost support after the ECB, SPX bounced off the fast line with a unanimously bullish weekly, the VIX dropped 11%, and NASDAQ closed long. Oil Futures hit 104.49 with a late exhaustion breakout after eight overbought days, so don't be surprised by a pullback. Gold is still below long-term resistance, Uranium is down 13% from that shooting star, and PAXG/BTC on-balance volume says gold may hold up better than Bitcoin. For my picks, Pepe ran 42% into TBO resistance, so I'd rather buy the pullback than chase it, and Raydium is still on fire near the top of the weekly cloud. World Liberty Financial dropped 16% with a predictive wick, Aster and Morpho printed exit signals, and Bitlayer's second close long is where I walk away. AIOZ closed above TBO resistance for a strong uptrend, Solana bounced 9% but still fights a strong weekly downtrend, and XRP left a fair value gap down to 99 cents. Apple looks strong bullish, Robinhood is close to filling its lower gap for a dip buy, and GDX printed a bearish divergence cluster. On the YouTube picks, IREN is back to chop inside the cloud, ISRG is a take profit at the fast line, Lithium Americas has TBO support near 3.09, and FHE's on-balance volume leans toward more upside. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 02:24 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 04:28 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 06:51 EURUSD Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk 09:28 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 12:32 PEPE Remains Strong Bearish 14:47 Meme Coin Risk and Sentiment 21:28 FET Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 24:16 Solana Support and Seller Pressure 26:19 ISRG Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk
32:34

BTC wicked up to 79,760, almost 80,000, on Friday before news pumped and dumped it right back down. I don't think this is a predictive wick, because this rally has already been running for a while, so I'm calling it a pump and dump wick. Bitcoin still closed above the cloud with the TBO lines separating, but if we lose 76,706 at the 0.786 fib, I expect a quick dip to 72K. Ethereum shot up almost 10% to 2665 with all four TBO lines pointing up, yet it still didn't close above resistance. Stablecoin dominance got rejected at the fast line, Bitcoin dominance dropped 0.33% as Ethereum led, and I'm still treating Others as a buy the dip opportunity. In TradFi, DXY didn't close inside the cloud, and USDJPY fell to 153.468 with RSI barely oversold, which I'd love to see continue all the way down to 140. The Euro lost support after the ECB, SPX bounced off the fast line with a unanimously bullish weekly, the VIX dropped 11%, and NASDAQ closed long. Oil Futures hit 104.49 with a late exhaustion breakout after eight overbought days, so don't be surprised by a pullback. Gold is still below long-term resistance, Uranium is down 13% from that shooting star, and PAXG/BTC on-balance volume says gold may hold up better than Bitcoin. For my picks, Pepe ran 42% into TBO resistance, so I'd rather buy the pullback than chase it, and Raydium is still on fire near the top of the weekly cloud. World Liberty Financial dropped 16% with a predictive wick, Aster and Morpho printed exit signals, and Bitlayer's second close long is where I walk away. AIOZ closed above TBO resistance for a strong uptrend, Solana bounced 9% but still fights a strong weekly downtrend, and XRP left a fair value gap down to 99 cents. Apple looks strong bullish, Robinhood is close to filling its lower gap for a dip buy, and GDX printed a bearish divergence cluster. On the YouTube picks, IREN is back to chop inside the cloud, ISRG is a take profit at the fast line, Lithium Americas has TBO support near 3.09, and FHE's on-balance volume leans toward more upside. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 02:24 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 04:28 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 06:51 EURUSD Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk 09:28 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 12:32 PEPE Remains Strong Bearish 14:47 Meme Coin Risk and Sentiment 21:28 FET Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 24:16 Solana Support and Seller Pressure 26:19 ISRG Breakout Exhaustion Raises Reversal Risk

Aaron Dishner

14,797 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

BTC closed Monday up 1.62%, tagging a fresh local high right at 80,000, but RSI only managed a lower high at 88, so we've got a confirmed bearish divergence layered on top of six straight days overbought. That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to drop today, but I'm watching the fast line near 70,400 and the 618 Fib around 72K as the realistic pullback zones if buyers pause here. Ethereum is in the same boat, overbought for seven days after topping near 2,546, so I'm watching for a bearish RSI reset on both coins rather than assuming the rally just keeps ripping without a breather. Dominance is telling the real story of where money is flowing right now. Stablecoin dominance cratered to oversold, Bitcoin dominance spiked, Ethereum dominance is still strong but showing early bearish RSI resets, and Solana dominance just broke out with its first closed short since 2023, which tells me alts are starting to wake up even though TOTAL3ESBTC shows we're still nowhere near the euphoric highs from past cycles. The total crypto market cap excluding stables pushed back to 2.4 trillion, and closing above that would open the door to a much hotter move, so I'm treating every one of these pullbacks as a buying opportunity rather than something to fear. On the TradFi side, DXY caught a bullish RSI reset after Besant's comments on Iran sanctions, S&P Futures are chopping inside the cloud even with strong PMI data, Nvidia printed a bearish reversal after earnings, and gold is threatening to break above the 0.5 Fib level in a big way. Across my picks, Club picks, and YouTube picks I'm leaning hard into buy the dip mode on names like Solana, Injective, XLM, APT, Uber, Meta, and App, because between the overbought streaks and the dominance rotation, I still think we're early in this cycle, not late. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 07:50 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 10:42 Bitcoin Dominance Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 14:07 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 21:51 TOTAL3ESBTC Resistance Shows Altcoins Are Still Early 26:36 EURUSD Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 29:24 Tesla Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 35:02 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk 39:13 BONK Resistance Could Confirm a Bullish Trend 51:15 NBIS Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
1:00:27

BTC closed Monday up 1.62%, tagging a fresh local high right at 80,000, but RSI only managed a lower high at 88, so we've got a confirmed bearish divergence layered on top of six straight days overbought. That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to drop today, but I'm watching the fast line near 70,400 and the 618 Fib around 72K as the realistic pullback zones if buyers pause here. Ethereum is in the same boat, overbought for seven days after topping near 2,546, so I'm watching for a bearish RSI reset on both coins rather than assuming the rally just keeps ripping without a breather. Dominance is telling the real story of where money is flowing right now. Stablecoin dominance cratered to oversold, Bitcoin dominance spiked, Ethereum dominance is still strong but showing early bearish RSI resets, and Solana dominance just broke out with its first closed short since 2023, which tells me alts are starting to wake up even though TOTAL3ESBTC shows we're still nowhere near the euphoric highs from past cycles. The total crypto market cap excluding stables pushed back to 2.4 trillion, and closing above that would open the door to a much hotter move, so I'm treating every one of these pullbacks as a buying opportunity rather than something to fear. On the TradFi side, DXY caught a bullish RSI reset after Besant's comments on Iran sanctions, S&P Futures are chopping inside the cloud even with strong PMI data, Nvidia printed a bearish reversal after earnings, and gold is threatening to break above the 0.5 Fib level in a big way. Across my picks, Club picks, and YouTube picks I'm leaning hard into buy the dip mode on names like Solana, Injective, XLM, APT, Uber, Meta, and App, because between the overbought streaks and the dominance rotation, I still think we're early in this cycle, not late. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 07:50 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 10:42 Bitcoin Dominance Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 14:07 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 21:51 TOTAL3ESBTC Resistance Shows Altcoins Are Still Early 26:36 EURUSD Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 29:24 Tesla Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 35:02 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk 39:13 BONK Resistance Could Confirm a Bullish Trend 51:15 NBIS Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk

Aaron Dishner

18,370 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen

BTC pushed to $81,272 after gaining nearly 30% in nine days. I still see exceptionally bullish volume and on-balance volume, but daily bearish divergence, an extended overbought streak, and rejection near historical resistance tell me to protect profit and prepare for volatility. ETH remains strong bullish, though fading momentum makes a pullback toward its fast line increasingly reasonable. I see DXY remaining strong bearish, while USDJPY needs to lose short-term support before the larger bearish move develops. S&P Futures look stalled ahead of Jackson Hole, TSLA remains in bullish consolidation, and SPCX still shows buyers winning. Gold and silver remain bullish but vulnerable to pullbacks, while PAXGBTC looks due for a bounce. I’m watching POLUSDT, INJUSDT, FFUSDT, and JASMYUSD for continued breakout strength, while GRAMUSDT, FILUSD, FLRUSDT, and APTUSD offer pullback entries. ZECUSDT, HBARUSDT, UNIUSDT, and PYTHUSDT are flashing reversal warnings. Among the later picks, ULTIMAUSDT has a confirmed open long, HYPEUSDT is overheating, SOFI is compressing for a move, and INTC is holding support with bounce potential. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Divergence Builds Against Price Momentum 04:53 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 08:23 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation 12:27 USDJPY Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation 17:04 Gold Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 22:56 Community Picks Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 30:06 UNI Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 34:20 ISRG Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 39:45 FET Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 41:55 PUMP Momentum and Reversal Risk 47:08 SOFI and Nike Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario
52:37

BTC pushed to $81,272 after gaining nearly 30% in nine days. I still see exceptionally bullish volume and on-balance volume, but daily bearish divergence, an extended overbought streak, and rejection near historical resistance tell me to protect profit and prepare for volatility. ETH remains strong bullish, though fading momentum makes a pullback toward its fast line increasingly reasonable. I see DXY remaining strong bearish, while USDJPY needs to lose short-term support before the larger bearish move develops. S&P Futures look stalled ahead of Jackson Hole, TSLA remains in bullish consolidation, and SPCX still shows buyers winning. Gold and silver remain bullish but vulnerable to pullbacks, while PAXGBTC looks due for a bounce. I’m watching POLUSDT, INJUSDT, FFUSDT, and JASMYUSD for continued breakout strength, while GRAMUSDT, FILUSD, FLRUSDT, and APTUSD offer pullback entries. ZECUSDT, HBARUSDT, UNIUSDT, and PYTHUSDT are flashing reversal warnings. Among the later picks, ULTIMAUSDT has a confirmed open long, HYPEUSDT is overheating, SOFI is compressing for a move, and INTC is holding support with bounce potential. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Divergence Builds Against Price Momentum 04:53 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 08:23 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation 12:27 USDJPY Bullish Consolidation Awaits Confirmation 17:04 Gold Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 22:56 Community Picks Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 30:06 UNI Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 34:20 ISRG Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 39:45 FET Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 41:55 PUMP Momentum and Reversal Risk 47:08 SOFI and Nike Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario

Aaron Dishner

12,297 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

Bitcoin closed green today at 0.62%, but I'm watching price stall right below 79,000 with resistance capped near 82K, just above TBO resistance at 81,788. RSI has been confirmed overbought for eight straight days now, which is due for a pullback, even though on-balance volume still looks strongly bullish. My targets if this rolls over are the 0.786 fib near 76,700 first, then the 0.618 near 72,200, and I'll treat any real dip there as a buy the dip moment rather than a reason to panic. Ethereum closed up 2.63% and is still respecting resistance even with RSI overbought and volume fading, so I'm not ruling out a break higher before the eventual reset. Stablecoin dominance is exceptionally oversold and due for a snap back, Bitcoin dominance is showing higher highs with lower highs on RSI, and Solana dominance just had a huge breakout move on a 4.7% pop. Over on TradFi, DXY confirmed a strong bearish downtrend after losing its support line, USDJPY is still consolidating bullish without tagging its fast line yet, and EURUSD is cracking on a bearish RSI reset. I'm still taking a buy the dip approach on S&P Futures into Jackson Hole, along with Tesla and SpaceX, while oil, gold, silver, platinum, and copper all look set up for pullbacks that turn into buying opportunities, and uranium just printed a textbook shooting star reversal at the top of its move. Running through my picks, CVX is exceptionally overbought after a third breakout, DOG is stretched near 94 RSI on short liquidations, and gram, DOT, QNT, FLR, and LUNC all confirmed close shorts pointing to fast line pullbacks. NEAR and S both just confirmed open longs as bullish reversal signals, while POL and STABLE are flashing bearish close longs and breakdowns to watch. On the Club and YouTube Picks side, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and OKLO all carry bearish warnings pointing to pullback levels, ORCL and LIT are showing bullish reversal setups, and CRWD, ZETA, and CIFR all look like buy the dip candidates as they work toward resistance. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance 05:26 Ethereum Holds Bullish Trend As Volume Fades 08:23 Solana Dominance Breaks Out On Big Volume 11:57 DXY Confirms Bearish Downtrend Below Support 14:14 S&P Futures Signal Buy The Dip Ahead 16:36 Gold Faces Pullback Risk Before Bullish Continuation 19:24 Uranium Market Signals Shooting Star Reversal 26:25 Convex Finance Breaks Out To Overbought Extreme 35:52 Sonic Confirms Bullish Reversal After Open Long 41:35 Apple Risks Pullback To 285 Support 46:09 Nvidia Flashes Bearish Warning On Close Longs 57:32 CrowdStrike Stock Signals Buy The Dip Opportunity
59:09

Bitcoin closed green today at 0.62%, but I'm watching price stall right below 79,000 with resistance capped near 82K, just above TBO resistance at 81,788. RSI has been confirmed overbought for eight straight days now, which is due for a pullback, even though on-balance volume still looks strongly bullish. My targets if this rolls over are the 0.786 fib near 76,700 first, then the 0.618 near 72,200, and I'll treat any real dip there as a buy the dip moment rather than a reason to panic. Ethereum closed up 2.63% and is still respecting resistance even with RSI overbought and volume fading, so I'm not ruling out a break higher before the eventual reset. Stablecoin dominance is exceptionally oversold and due for a snap back, Bitcoin dominance is showing higher highs with lower highs on RSI, and Solana dominance just had a huge breakout move on a 4.7% pop. Over on TradFi, DXY confirmed a strong bearish downtrend after losing its support line, USDJPY is still consolidating bullish without tagging its fast line yet, and EURUSD is cracking on a bearish RSI reset. I'm still taking a buy the dip approach on S&P Futures into Jackson Hole, along with Tesla and SpaceX, while oil, gold, silver, platinum, and copper all look set up for pullbacks that turn into buying opportunities, and uranium just printed a textbook shooting star reversal at the top of its move. Running through my picks, CVX is exceptionally overbought after a third breakout, DOG is stretched near 94 RSI on short liquidations, and gram, DOT, QNT, FLR, and LUNC all confirmed close shorts pointing to fast line pullbacks. NEAR and S both just confirmed open longs as bullish reversal signals, while POL and STABLE are flashing bearish close longs and breakdowns to watch. On the Club and YouTube Picks side, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and OKLO all carry bearish warnings pointing to pullback levels, ORCL and LIT are showing bullish reversal setups, and CRWD, ZETA, and CIFR all look like buy the dip candidates as they work toward resistance. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance 05:26 Ethereum Holds Bullish Trend As Volume Fades 08:23 Solana Dominance Breaks Out On Big Volume 11:57 DXY Confirms Bearish Downtrend Below Support 14:14 S&P Futures Signal Buy The Dip Ahead 16:36 Gold Faces Pullback Risk Before Bullish Continuation 19:24 Uranium Market Signals Shooting Star Reversal 26:25 Convex Finance Breaks Out To Overbought Extreme 35:52 Sonic Confirms Bullish Reversal After Open Long 41:35 Apple Risks Pullback To 285 Support 46:09 Nvidia Flashes Bearish Warning On Close Longs 57:32 CrowdStrike Stock Signals Buy The Dip Opportunity

Aaron Dishner

12,520 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June
35:01

BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June

Aaron Dishner

13,263 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Bitcoin closed up 2.39% on July 1st and I watched TBO support drop from 62k down to 57k after a surprising low. It came close to a massive bullish engulfing candle, wick to wick BTC was up 6%, but it didn't close above Tuesday's open at 60,276 so the reversal isn't confirmed yet. RSI is showing me clear bullish divergence with higher lows since June 10th even as price made lower lows, volume exceeded the moving average at 1.5 billion, and on balance volume is flattening out just like it did before the last major reversal, so I still believe we're close to a July bounce even though this remains a bear market. Ethereum bounced a similar 2.39% with its own bullish divergence cluster and a closed short on the four hour, though volume and on balance volume still need to confirm. I also went through stablecoin dominance, Bitcoin dominance, and Solana dominance, plus DXY and USDJPY which are both flashing dangerously overbought conditions eerily similar to July 2024 right before Bank of Japan intervention. On the macro side I covered S&P futures, the Fear and Greed Index closing its third TBO close long as a warning to take profit, oil grinding down toward 68 to fill its gap, and gold and silver both showing early bullish RSI resets inside otherwise bearish structures. For my picks I walked through a long list of oversold setups I like for a July bounce including Solana, Litecoin, Crow, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Sui, Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Vechain, Monad, and Worldcoin, along with take profit zones on Morpho and Curve. I also flagged charts I'm more cautious on like Velvet and Adam despite bullish RSI resets, shared my Kraken short trade recap on Bitcoin, and closed out with stock picks including Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, and SEI, plus a reminder that my deeper explainer video on all of this drops Sunday. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin recap and near bullish engulfing candle 02:10 RSI bullish divergence and on balance volume setup 04:30 Ethereum bounce and four hour close short 06:15 Stablecoin, Bitcoin, and Solana dominance 08:00 DXY and USDJPY overbought warning signs 10:20 S&P futures, Fear and Greed Index, oil, gold and silver 13:40 Kraken trade recap and Better Traders Club 16:30 Altcoin picks: Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Sui 19:45 Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Morpho, Curve profit zones 22:30 Caution charts: Velvet and Adam 25:00 Worldcoin, Fartcoin, and oversold plays 27:40 Stock picks: Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, SEI
56:24

Bitcoin closed up 2.39% on July 1st and I watched TBO support drop from 62k down to 57k after a surprising low. It came close to a massive bullish engulfing candle, wick to wick BTC was up 6%, but it didn't close above Tuesday's open at 60,276 so the reversal isn't confirmed yet. RSI is showing me clear bullish divergence with higher lows since June 10th even as price made lower lows, volume exceeded the moving average at 1.5 billion, and on balance volume is flattening out just like it did before the last major reversal, so I still believe we're close to a July bounce even though this remains a bear market. Ethereum bounced a similar 2.39% with its own bullish divergence cluster and a closed short on the four hour, though volume and on balance volume still need to confirm. I also went through stablecoin dominance, Bitcoin dominance, and Solana dominance, plus DXY and USDJPY which are both flashing dangerously overbought conditions eerily similar to July 2024 right before Bank of Japan intervention. On the macro side I covered S&P futures, the Fear and Greed Index closing its third TBO close long as a warning to take profit, oil grinding down toward 68 to fill its gap, and gold and silver both showing early bullish RSI resets inside otherwise bearish structures. For my picks I walked through a long list of oversold setups I like for a July bounce including Solana, Litecoin, Crow, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Sui, Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Vechain, Monad, and Worldcoin, along with take profit zones on Morpho and Curve. I also flagged charts I'm more cautious on like Velvet and Adam despite bullish RSI resets, shared my Kraken short trade recap on Bitcoin, and closed out with stock picks including Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, and SEI, plus a reminder that my deeper explainer video on all of this drops Sunday. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin recap and near bullish engulfing candle 02:10 RSI bullish divergence and on balance volume setup 04:30 Ethereum bounce and four hour close short 06:15 Stablecoin, Bitcoin, and Solana dominance 08:00 DXY and USDJPY overbought warning signs 10:20 S&P futures, Fear and Greed Index, oil, gold and silver 13:40 Kraken trade recap and Better Traders Club 16:30 Altcoin picks: Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Sui 19:45 Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Morpho, Curve profit zones 22:30 Caution charts: Velvet and Adam 25:00 Worldcoin, Fartcoin, and oversold plays 27:40 Stock picks: Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, SEI

Aaron Dishner

11,408 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to suggest the market may have found a bottom six to eight weeks earlier than I expected. I am not treating that as permission to ignore downside risk. BTC is pressing into former support around $82,000 to $82,850, and a rejection there would keep the bear-flag scenario alive. Realized price remains below $53,000, a $50,000 pullback still fits the structure, and $72,000 is the next line I would watch if the market retreats. I am starting to pivot from reflexively shorting strength toward scaling into high-quality setups, but I still want confirmation and patience. The market is showing real bottoming signals, yet the shallow structure, the risk of a pullback, and the way a small Ethereum move briefly punished alts all argue against reckless dumpster diving. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Shift The Thesis 03:09 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms 2023 Parallels 06:17 Oversold Signals Strengthen The Bottom Case 09:55 Bitcoin's 26% Rebound Signals Momentum 13:03 Realized Price Still Defines Downside Risk 16:16 Bitcoin Breaks $82,850 To Shift Structure 19:23 Shallow Bottoming Signals Need Confirmation 22:34 Bitcoin Scaling Awaits The Pullback 25:38 Dumpster Diving Still Carries Extreme Risk 28:38 Ethereum Volatility Exposes Altcoin Fragility 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Bitunix 👉 💪 Join the Better Traders Club for indicators, tools, and community: 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:
32:51

Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to suggest the market may have found a bottom six to eight weeks earlier than I expected. I am not treating that as permission to ignore downside risk. BTC is pressing into former support around $82,000 to $82,850, and a rejection there would keep the bear-flag scenario alive. Realized price remains below $53,000, a $50,000 pullback still fits the structure, and $72,000 is the next line I would watch if the market retreats. I am starting to pivot from reflexively shorting strength toward scaling into high-quality setups, but I still want confirmation and patience. The market is showing real bottoming signals, yet the shallow structure, the risk of a pullback, and the way a small Ethereum move briefly punished alts all argue against reckless dumpster diving. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Shift The Thesis 03:09 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms 2023 Parallels 06:17 Oversold Signals Strengthen The Bottom Case 09:55 Bitcoin's 26% Rebound Signals Momentum 13:03 Realized Price Still Defines Downside Risk 16:16 Bitcoin Breaks $82,850 To Shift Structure 19:23 Shallow Bottoming Signals Need Confirmation 22:34 Bitcoin Scaling Awaits The Pullback 25:38 Dumpster Diving Still Carries Extreme Risk 28:38 Ethereum Volatility Exposes Altcoin Fragility 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Bitunix 👉 💪 Join the Better Traders Club for indicators, tools, and community: 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

Aaron Dishner

14,620 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap
37:17

I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap

Aaron Dishner

10,593 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin has already won as Digital Capital. The next wave is Digital Credit, Digital Money, Digital Yield, and Bitcoin-backed capital markets — products that can bring trillions of dollars of traditional credit and money market capital onto Bitcoin. My interview with Cointelegraph at BTC Prague. 00:57 — Bitcoin in a drawdown: five major pullbacks in six years, stronger fundamentals, and rising dominance 02:23 — Digital Credit: from zero to an $11B+ asset class in 12 months 03:35 — Digital Money: bitcoin-backed yieldcoins and the path from 40 vol to 0 vol 04:31 — The opportunity for 8% yield in dollars, euros, yen, pounds, and francs 06:02 — $300T of credit, $30–50T of money markets, and the $10T opportunity for Bitcoin 07:19 — Why Bitcoin is winning economically, technically, and ethically 08:26 — Quantum computing, FUD, and why bear markets amplify Bitcoin debates 10:37 — AI capital rotation, Bitcoin’s current drawdown, and the path to recovery 11:36 — Six years of Strategy: why I would have moved faster into Digital Credit 12:22 — The ideal Bitcoin Treasury Company: common equity plus STRC-style Digital Credit 14:35 — The 32 BTC sale, the $100M bitcoin buyback, and why capital must back credit 17:02 — Defending the equity, credit, and bitcoin-backed capital structure 19:03 — The tradeoff: buy 200,000 BTC and sell 10,000 BTC — or buy and sell zero 20:15 — “Never sell,” Twitter trolls, and Strategy’s fiduciary obligations 22:06 — Bitcoin per share, long-term accretion, and accumulating through bull and bear markets 22:34 — $21B of equity raised in 16 weeks and ~$10B of bitcoin acquired this year 24:18 — The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, US leadership, and supportive regulation 27:18 — Digital Credit, bank credit, and Digital Money bringing trillions onto Bitcoin 28:01 — Why Bitcoin can grow organically without central bank support
28:48

Bitcoin has already won as Digital Capital. The next wave is Digital Credit, Digital Money, Digital Yield, and Bitcoin-backed capital markets — products that can bring trillions of dollars of traditional credit and money market capital onto Bitcoin. My interview with Cointelegraph at BTC Prague. 00:57 — Bitcoin in a drawdown: five major pullbacks in six years, stronger fundamentals, and rising dominance 02:23 — Digital Credit: from zero to an $11B+ asset class in 12 months 03:35 — Digital Money: bitcoin-backed yieldcoins and the path from 40 vol to 0 vol 04:31 — The opportunity for 8% yield in dollars, euros, yen, pounds, and francs 06:02 — $300T of credit, $30–50T of money markets, and the $10T opportunity for Bitcoin 07:19 — Why Bitcoin is winning economically, technically, and ethically 08:26 — Quantum computing, FUD, and why bear markets amplify Bitcoin debates 10:37 — AI capital rotation, Bitcoin’s current drawdown, and the path to recovery 11:36 — Six years of Strategy: why I would have moved faster into Digital Credit 12:22 — The ideal Bitcoin Treasury Company: common equity plus STRC-style Digital Credit 14:35 — The 32 BTC sale, the $100M bitcoin buyback, and why capital must back credit 17:02 — Defending the equity, credit, and bitcoin-backed capital structure 19:03 — The tradeoff: buy 200,000 BTC and sell 10,000 BTC — or buy and sell zero 20:15 — “Never sell,” Twitter trolls, and Strategy’s fiduciary obligations 22:06 — Bitcoin per share, long-term accretion, and accumulating through bull and bear markets 22:34 — $21B of equity raised in 16 weeks and ~$10B of bitcoin acquired this year 24:18 — The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, US leadership, and supportive regulation 27:18 — Digital Credit, bank credit, and Digital Money bringing trillions onto Bitcoin 28:01 — Why Bitcoin can grow organically without central bank support

Michael Saylor

264,327 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

I joined Katie Greifeld and Romaine Bostick on Bloomberg today to discuss Strategy’s evolution into a Digital Capital platform, our $3B cash reserve, $STRC, balance sheet resilience, and our long-term commitment to Bitcoin. 01:17 - Strategy’s evolution from Bitcoin Treasury Company to full Digital Capital platform 01:25 - Over 840,000 BTC, $10.5B of $STRC, and Strategy’s responsibilities 01:45 - Why Strategy built a $3B cash reserve after listening to preferred shareholders 02:30 - The path for $STRC: build USD reserves, return $STRC to par, issue more $STRC, and buy $BTC 04:22 - $MSTR’s goal: outperform Bitcoin over time while managing volatility through bull and bear markets 05:41 - Balance sheet resilience and why debt risk is low 06:50 - Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin commitment: “We’re not going anywhere” 07:04 - Bitcoin is bigger than Strategy: 4% ownership, $30–40B of daily volume, and bitcoin sales that did not move the market 08:46 - Software, AI, Bitcoin, and the maturity of a 25-year public company operating inside digital finance
9:08

I joined Katie Greifeld and Romaine Bostick on Bloomberg today to discuss Strategy’s evolution into a Digital Capital platform, our $3B cash reserve, $STRC, balance sheet resilience, and our long-term commitment to Bitcoin. 01:17 - Strategy’s evolution from Bitcoin Treasury Company to full Digital Capital platform 01:25 - Over 840,000 BTC, $10.5B of $STRC, and Strategy’s responsibilities 01:45 - Why Strategy built a $3B cash reserve after listening to preferred shareholders 02:30 - The path for $STRC: build USD reserves, return $STRC to par, issue more $STRC, and buy $BTC 04:22 - $MSTR’s goal: outperform Bitcoin over time while managing volatility through bull and bear markets 05:41 - Balance sheet resilience and why debt risk is low 06:50 - Strategy’s long-term Bitcoin commitment: “We’re not going anywhere” 07:04 - Bitcoin is bigger than Strategy: 4% ownership, $30–40B of daily volume, and bitcoin sales that did not move the market 08:46 - Software, AI, Bitcoin, and the maturity of a 25-year public company operating inside digital finance

Phong Le

489,402 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin opened July with a fresh flush into the 57K area, but I am still treating this as a possible short-term bounce month rather than a clean new bull leg. July has historically been strong for Bitcoin in bottom-year contexts, the Better Crypto Calendar just nailed the ugly June close, and BTC/ETH are showing the kind of oversold and divergence conditions that can produce a relief rally. The key warning is that August and September are historically much rougher, so if July gives us upside, I want profits protected instead of assuming the move lasts forever. The macro backdrop is still messy. DXY remains strong bullish, S&P futures and the major equity indexes are trying to bounce, and the Japanese yen is the big risk signal today with USD/JPY pushing into levels not seen since the 1980s. That makes the title question important: Bitcoin can bounce this July, but a weak yen, possible intervention, and unstable TradFi signals mean I do not want to ignore the broader pressure. In the watchlist section I cover my crypto picks, your crypto picks, and the requested stock names with the same theme running through most of them: July can create sharp oversold bounces, but many charts are still bearish or only tactical long setups. I am looking for fast-line reactions, oversold resets, DCA-style opportunities, and places to scale out quickly if the bounce shows up, especially with August and September still sitting in the background. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin opens July with a flush and seasonality setup 03:02 Why August and September still matter 06:18 ETH, stablecoin dominance, and BTC dominance 10:41 DXY, weak yen, and TradFi warning signs 13:14 S&P futures, stocks, oil, gold, and metals 17:30 Better Traders Club, TBO, Journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:36 My picks: LIT, SOL, AAVE, WIF, MORPHO, DEXE, and bearish updates 31:18 Your picks: ACN, VIRTUAL, HYPE, CRO, JTO, GRASS, PUMP, NAORIS, and FLUX 38:22 Stock picks: Exxon Mobil, Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, FuelCell, Salesforce, Robinhood, and Netflix 43:51 Bitcoin lottery miner video preview
44:29

Bitcoin opened July with a fresh flush into the 57K area, but I am still treating this as a possible short-term bounce month rather than a clean new bull leg. July has historically been strong for Bitcoin in bottom-year contexts, the Better Crypto Calendar just nailed the ugly June close, and BTC/ETH are showing the kind of oversold and divergence conditions that can produce a relief rally. The key warning is that August and September are historically much rougher, so if July gives us upside, I want profits protected instead of assuming the move lasts forever. The macro backdrop is still messy. DXY remains strong bullish, S&P futures and the major equity indexes are trying to bounce, and the Japanese yen is the big risk signal today with USD/JPY pushing into levels not seen since the 1980s. That makes the title question important: Bitcoin can bounce this July, but a weak yen, possible intervention, and unstable TradFi signals mean I do not want to ignore the broader pressure. In the watchlist section I cover my crypto picks, your crypto picks, and the requested stock names with the same theme running through most of them: July can create sharp oversold bounces, but many charts are still bearish or only tactical long setups. I am looking for fast-line reactions, oversold resets, DCA-style opportunities, and places to scale out quickly if the bounce shows up, especially with August and September still sitting in the background. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin opens July with a flush and seasonality setup 03:02 Why August and September still matter 06:18 ETH, stablecoin dominance, and BTC dominance 10:41 DXY, weak yen, and TradFi warning signs 13:14 S&P futures, stocks, oil, gold, and metals 17:30 Better Traders Club, TBO, Journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:36 My picks: LIT, SOL, AAVE, WIF, MORPHO, DEXE, and bearish updates 31:18 Your picks: ACN, VIRTUAL, HYPE, CRO, JTO, GRASS, PUMP, NAORIS, and FLUX 38:22 Stock picks: Exxon Mobil, Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, FuelCell, Salesforce, Robinhood, and Netflix 43:51 Bitcoin lottery miner video preview

Aaron Dishner

12,100 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin Started the Move - These Altcoins Could Deliver the REAL Returns | Ran Neuner 00:00 Why This Bitcoin Cycle Could Be Massive 02:08 Did Crypto Boredom Mark the Bottom? 04:47 Why This Looks Like Bitcoin’s 2023 SVB Breakout 07:23 Wall Street Starts Rotating Back Into Bitcoin 14:19 Bessent Goes to War With the Bond Market 18:21 Will the Clarity Act Actually Pass? 20:15 Why This Could Be an Altcoin Cycle 21:35 ETH/BTC Breaks a Nine-Year Downtrend 22:03 AI Agents Could Drive the Onchain Economy 23:49 The Case for an Altcoin Supercycle 25:21 Which Altcoins Actually Have Upside? 26:18 Have Solana and Ethereum Won the L1 War? 27:35 The Next Crypto Winners Will Be Applications 33:18 The Biggest Lesson From Previous Crypto Cycles 35:26 Ran Reveals His Crypto Portfolio 41:00 How to Actually Take Profits This Cycle 41:35 Avoiding Crypto VC Deals 43:09 Why Conviction Beats Getting Early Access 44:27 STRC, Michael Saylor and Strategy’s Next Move 46:39 Final Thoughts
47:04

Bitcoin Started the Move - These Altcoins Could Deliver the REAL Returns | Ran Neuner 00:00 Why This Bitcoin Cycle Could Be Massive 02:08 Did Crypto Boredom Mark the Bottom? 04:47 Why This Looks Like Bitcoin’s 2023 SVB Breakout 07:23 Wall Street Starts Rotating Back Into Bitcoin 14:19 Bessent Goes to War With the Bond Market 18:21 Will the Clarity Act Actually Pass? 20:15 Why This Could Be an Altcoin Cycle 21:35 ETH/BTC Breaks a Nine-Year Downtrend 22:03 AI Agents Could Drive the Onchain Economy 23:49 The Case for an Altcoin Supercycle 25:21 Which Altcoins Actually Have Upside? 26:18 Have Solana and Ethereum Won the L1 War? 27:35 The Next Crypto Winners Will Be Applications 33:18 The Biggest Lesson From Previous Crypto Cycles 35:26 Ran Reveals His Crypto Portfolio 41:00 How to Actually Take Profits This Cycle 41:35 Avoiding Crypto VC Deals 43:09 Why Conviction Beats Getting Early Access 44:27 STRC, Michael Saylor and Strategy’s Next Move 46:39 Final Thoughts

The Wolf Of All Streets

298,536 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

WOW! Bitcoin not only broke above overhead resistance in our bull flag, it also took out the next three resistance fan levels! This is a HUGE BULLISH signal for Bitcoin and crypto. Uptober is definitely here! Now, the reality of this move is that the combined stablecoin dominance chart is at critical short term support. If BTC has a slight pullback today, that will cause stablecoin dominance to bounce off of support, which will validate that level of support and cause a wider market pullback (even though it should just be minor). Secondly, the TOTALES daily chart is also right at resistance today. If it can break ABOVE resistance, then we'll see combined stablecoin dominance DROP LOWER, which is EXACTLY what we want to see in order for more bullish continuation. Lots of charts are having incredible TBO Breakouts right now, showing me that there is more bullish explosive upside continuation possible for IMX, ZEC, SNX and FLR. ADA, APT, QNT and HNT all have valid TBO Close Shorts, which are my FAVORITE bullish reversal signals. BCH, LTC, AAVE, MNT, XDC and PUMP all look massively bullish to me. NEAR and SOL both "closed" their TBO Close Longs, but I'm still avoiding NEAR for now. ALPINE had a MASSIVE pump and dump, losing over 70% yesterday 💀 BLUE, DASH, XRP, XLM, SUI, SHIB, XMR, SPX6900 and S are all worth watching closely today too. But my main concern lies with the fact that several "OG" coins like DASH, ZEC, LTC and XMR are pumping- which is typically a sign that we're at the start of an ALT rally. While this is great news, I'm cautiously watching these signs, and so should you!
19:48

WOW! Bitcoin not only broke above overhead resistance in our bull flag, it also took out the next three resistance fan levels! This is a HUGE BULLISH signal for Bitcoin and crypto. Uptober is definitely here! Now, the reality of this move is that the combined stablecoin dominance chart is at critical short term support. If BTC has a slight pullback today, that will cause stablecoin dominance to bounce off of support, which will validate that level of support and cause a wider market pullback (even though it should just be minor). Secondly, the TOTALES daily chart is also right at resistance today. If it can break ABOVE resistance, then we'll see combined stablecoin dominance DROP LOWER, which is EXACTLY what we want to see in order for more bullish continuation. Lots of charts are having incredible TBO Breakouts right now, showing me that there is more bullish explosive upside continuation possible for IMX, ZEC, SNX and FLR. ADA, APT, QNT and HNT all have valid TBO Close Shorts, which are my FAVORITE bullish reversal signals. BCH, LTC, AAVE, MNT, XDC and PUMP all look massively bullish to me. NEAR and SOL both "closed" their TBO Close Longs, but I'm still avoiding NEAR for now. ALPINE had a MASSIVE pump and dump, losing over 70% yesterday 💀 BLUE, DASH, XRP, XLM, SUI, SHIB, XMR, SPX6900 and S are all worth watching closely today too. But my main concern lies with the fact that several "OG" coins like DASH, ZEC, LTC and XMR are pumping- which is typically a sign that we're at the start of an ALT rally. While this is great news, I'm cautiously watching these signs, and so should you!

Aaron Dishner

64,684 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

How does Strategy navigate a challenging Bitcoin market, return $STRC to par, and continue compounding Bitcoin per share? In our Q2 earnings call, we laid out the strategy, reviewed our financial position and capital-management framework, and answered questions from equity analysts and industry experts. Prepared Remarks 00:00:00 - Welcome 00:01:20 - 843,775 BTC, 203,683 sats per share, $17B raised year to date, and Strategy’s position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin 00:03:27 - Q2 balance sheet: $49.7B of digital assets, $3.75B current USD reserve, lower debt, higher preferred equity, and strong stress-case coverage 00:08:57 - Bitcoin KPIs: 4.5% BTC Yield, 29,997 BTC Gain, and ~3.6x growth in Bitcoin per share since 2020 00:12:47 - Q2 execution: higher Bitcoin holdings, lower debt, larger USD reserves, stronger Bitcoin per share, and active capital management 00:15:03 - Strategy as a net buyer of Bitcoin and net issuer of Digital Credit: 48x more BTC bought than sold and 300x more Digital Credit issued than repurchased 00:18:47 - Returning $STRC to $99–$100 through USD reserves, Bitcoin monetization, repurchases, dividend management, and disciplined issuance 00:24:50 - Bitcoin liquidity: why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and sales are not material to overall Bitcoin trading volume 00:33:03 - Bitcoin as Digital Capital: website metrics, the 200-week moving average, current headwinds, Bitcoin Dominance, banking adoption, and security coordination 00:44:08 - $STRC as flagship Digital Credit: liquidity, lower volatility, market depth, yield, investor base, path to par, and updated credit metrics 01:05:04 - Equity framework: hurdle rate, breakeven rate, floor rate, market skepticism, $MSTR outperformance, franchise advantages, and Strategy’s long-term ambition Q&A 01:19:31 - Why Bitcoin-backed borrowing is not currently the preferred path to build USD reserves 01:23:11 - Why Strategy is consolidating around $STRC instead of creating more instruments or selling volatility 01:40:37 - Equitizing, repaying, or refinancing convertible debt 01:43:18 - Covered calls, cash-secured puts, Digital Credit, Bitcoin as money, and marketing products to the 99% outside Bitcoin 01:59:22 - USD reserve minimums and the path to $STRC trading at par 02:00:55 - Amplification, USD/BTC reserve mix, and countercyclical capital management 02:12:04 - Why Strategy does not intend to issue $STRC below par 02:20:34 - Lessons from 2022 and 2026, tokenized securities, Digital Money, and the June 26 $STRC dislocation 02:34:54 - Closing remarks
2:35:11

How does Strategy navigate a challenging Bitcoin market, return $STRC to par, and continue compounding Bitcoin per share? In our Q2 earnings call, we laid out the strategy, reviewed our financial position and capital-management framework, and answered questions from equity analysts and industry experts. Prepared Remarks 00:00:00 - Welcome 00:01:20 - 843,775 BTC, 203,683 sats per share, $17B raised year to date, and Strategy’s position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin 00:03:27 - Q2 balance sheet: $49.7B of digital assets, $3.75B current USD reserve, lower debt, higher preferred equity, and strong stress-case coverage 00:08:57 - Bitcoin KPIs: 4.5% BTC Yield, 29,997 BTC Gain, and ~3.6x growth in Bitcoin per share since 2020 00:12:47 - Q2 execution: higher Bitcoin holdings, lower debt, larger USD reserves, stronger Bitcoin per share, and active capital management 00:15:03 - Strategy as a net buyer of Bitcoin and net issuer of Digital Credit: 48x more BTC bought than sold and 300x more Digital Credit issued than repurchased 00:18:47 - Returning $STRC to $99–$100 through USD reserves, Bitcoin monetization, repurchases, dividend management, and disciplined issuance 00:24:50 - Bitcoin liquidity: why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and sales are not material to overall Bitcoin trading volume 00:33:03 - Bitcoin as Digital Capital: website metrics, the 200-week moving average, current headwinds, Bitcoin Dominance, banking adoption, and security coordination 00:44:08 - $STRC as flagship Digital Credit: liquidity, lower volatility, market depth, yield, investor base, path to par, and updated credit metrics 01:05:04 - Equity framework: hurdle rate, breakeven rate, floor rate, market skepticism, $MSTR outperformance, franchise advantages, and Strategy’s long-term ambition Q&A 01:19:31 - Why Bitcoin-backed borrowing is not currently the preferred path to build USD reserves 01:23:11 - Why Strategy is consolidating around $STRC instead of creating more instruments or selling volatility 01:40:37 - Equitizing, repaying, or refinancing convertible debt 01:43:18 - Covered calls, cash-secured puts, Digital Credit, Bitcoin as money, and marketing products to the 99% outside Bitcoin 01:59:22 - USD reserve minimums and the path to $STRC trading at par 02:00:55 - Amplification, USD/BTC reserve mix, and countercyclical capital management 02:12:04 - Why Strategy does not intend to issue $STRC below par 02:20:34 - Lessons from 2022 and 2026, tokenized securities, Digital Money, and the June 26 $STRC dislocation 02:34:54 - Closing remarks

Michael Saylor

328,281 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

With all of the market uncertainty heading into August a lot of Crypto traders are at risk of getting shaken out on the smallest market dip. There is an 86% chance of a September 16th rate cut, so I expect a big Q4. Until then, we could be in for some chop, and if we are, I'll be ready to buy. This video will break down the major events coming over the next month and my investing strategy for August. 03:45 Trump Tariff Fears 07:33 Unemployment and Recession Fear 10:14 High Chance of Rate Cuts in September 15:01 Global Liquidty and Debt Crisis 19:01 August is a Week Month for Bitcoin Seasonality 20:05 Bitcoin Dominance Outlook 23:49 Bitcoin Price Outlook 29:17 Ethereum Chart Update 30:42 XRP Chart Update 32:18 Solana Chart Update 34:25 Other Large Cap Altcoins 35:52 BNB Chart Update 37:31 Cardano Chart Update
39:11

With all of the market uncertainty heading into August a lot of Crypto traders are at risk of getting shaken out on the smallest market dip. There is an 86% chance of a September 16th rate cut, so I expect a big Q4. Until then, we could be in for some chop, and if we are, I'll be ready to buy. This video will break down the major events coming over the next month and my investing strategy for August. 03:45 Trump Tariff Fears 07:33 Unemployment and Recession Fear 10:14 High Chance of Rate Cuts in September 15:01 Global Liquidty and Debt Crisis 19:01 August is a Week Month for Bitcoin Seasonality 20:05 Bitcoin Dominance Outlook 23:49 Bitcoin Price Outlook 29:17 Ethereum Chart Update 30:42 XRP Chart Update 32:18 Solana Chart Update 34:25 Other Large Cap Altcoins 35:52 BNB Chart Update 37:31 Cardano Chart Update

VirtualBacon

37,847 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

BTC closed green again on Thursday, but I still read this market as caution, not confidence. The lower wick to $73,309 helped the candle, but daily RSI pushed overbought at 70.76 while printing lower highs than both April 11 and March 16. That keeps BTC pinned under what I’m now calling iron fortress resistance, while spaghetti support looks increasingly fragile. On the 4-hour, I still do not see the clean bearish reversal signal I would normally want, and that is exactly why this price action feels so weird to me. Price looks propped up, not strong. Ethereum is showing the same kind of weakness. ETH has now spent five straight days failing to close above TBO resistance at 23.76, and I still think a pullback toward the Fast line near 22.26 makes more sense than a clean breakout. At the same time, BTC dominance dropped hard, stablecoin dominance also moved lower, and alts exploded across the board. Normally that would sound bullish, but this move looks too aggressive and too suspicious for me to trust. OTHERS, TOTALE50, and TOTALE100 all ripped higher in a way that feels more like rotation, short squeezing, or outright exit-pump behavior than healthy trend continuation. TradFi is not making me feel any safer either. DXY confirmed a pivot low and now looks ready to move higher toward the open gap, which would add more pressure on USDJPY and keep macro conditions hostile. ES futures printed a fresh all-time high, the Nikkei also pushed higher, and Tesla ripped, but volume has been fading on the move, which makes the rally look unstable to me. Oil still has an upside gap that may need filling, gold is chopping inside the cloud, and uranium just broke out above its bull flag. On my watchlist, I’m focused on the charts that pumped hardest into resistance and now look the most vulnerable if this move fades, including XRP, BNB, SOL, LINK, SUI, ENA, LDO, INJ, FIL, AAVE, PENGU, PUMP, VIRTUAL, ADA, APT, HYPE, Binance Life, RAVE, Monad, Render, CHZ, XLM, SIREN, CFX, ZBCN, PIPPIN, and WAL. My main takeaway today is simple: this market is moving in a very weird way, and in a bear market I would rather respect the macro trend and take profit on suspicious pumps than assume this is the start of a clean breakout.
50:35

BTC closed green again on Thursday, but I still read this market as caution, not confidence. The lower wick to $73,309 helped the candle, but daily RSI pushed overbought at 70.76 while printing lower highs than both April 11 and March 16. That keeps BTC pinned under what I’m now calling iron fortress resistance, while spaghetti support looks increasingly fragile. On the 4-hour, I still do not see the clean bearish reversal signal I would normally want, and that is exactly why this price action feels so weird to me. Price looks propped up, not strong. Ethereum is showing the same kind of weakness. ETH has now spent five straight days failing to close above TBO resistance at 23.76, and I still think a pullback toward the Fast line near 22.26 makes more sense than a clean breakout. At the same time, BTC dominance dropped hard, stablecoin dominance also moved lower, and alts exploded across the board. Normally that would sound bullish, but this move looks too aggressive and too suspicious for me to trust. OTHERS, TOTALE50, and TOTALE100 all ripped higher in a way that feels more like rotation, short squeezing, or outright exit-pump behavior than healthy trend continuation. TradFi is not making me feel any safer either. DXY confirmed a pivot low and now looks ready to move higher toward the open gap, which would add more pressure on USDJPY and keep macro conditions hostile. ES futures printed a fresh all-time high, the Nikkei also pushed higher, and Tesla ripped, but volume has been fading on the move, which makes the rally look unstable to me. Oil still has an upside gap that may need filling, gold is chopping inside the cloud, and uranium just broke out above its bull flag. On my watchlist, I’m focused on the charts that pumped hardest into resistance and now look the most vulnerable if this move fades, including XRP, BNB, SOL, LINK, SUI, ENA, LDO, INJ, FIL, AAVE, PENGU, PUMP, VIRTUAL, ADA, APT, HYPE, Binance Life, RAVE, Monad, Render, CHZ, XLM, SIREN, CFX, ZBCN, PIPPIN, and WAL. My main takeaway today is simple: this market is moving in a very weird way, and in a bear market I would rather respect the macro trend and take profit on suspicious pumps than assume this is the start of a clean breakout.

Aaron Dishner

13,849 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching. TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move. My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K 08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets 13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance 18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices 23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium 25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset 28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV 31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more 37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE 41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up
42:31

BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching. TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move. My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K 08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets 13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance 18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices 23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium 25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset 28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV 31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more 37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE 41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up

Aaron Dishner

63,224 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten