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BITCOIN HAS GRADUATED FROM THE HALVING CYCLE. ETFs and institutional flows changed the game. This market no longer trades pure supply shocks. It trades macro liquidity and business cycles. If you’re still waiting for: “Halving. Altseason. Blow-off top” You’re using an outdated model. Adapt or miss the real trend.

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Merlijn The Trader

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94,089 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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BREAKING: MACRO JUST FLIPPED. AND BITCOIN IS ALREADY PRICING IT IN. Tom Lee, live on CNBC: “Bitcoin no longer follows the halving. It follows the ISM. When ISM crosses above 50, crypto goes into supercycle mode.” The data is brutal: - Detrended Bitcoin tracks the business cycle almost perfectly - Every single time ISM > 50 explosive BTC & ETH moves - ISM is now bottoming at 48.2 and turning up fast Meanwhile: - Global liquidity is surging - The Fed is boxed in with more cuts coming - Fiscal flows are accelerating - Institutions are loading, retail is still scared Sequence locked: 1. Bitcoin breaks out first 2. Ethereum catches fire on liquidity 3. Altseason detonates when the tide overflows The 4-year halving cycle isn’t dead. It got absorbed into the global macro engine. If you’re still waiting for the “post-halving pump” in 2025… you’re trading the wrong calendar. The real trigger is ISM. And it’s flashing green. Position for the inversion. Or get left in the dust. Macro won. Crypto is now its highest-beta play.
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BREAKING: MACRO JUST FLIPPED. AND BITCOIN IS ALREADY PRICING IT IN. Tom Lee, live on CNBC: “Bitcoin no longer follows the halving. It follows the ISM. When ISM crosses above 50, crypto goes into supercycle mode.” The data is brutal: - Detrended Bitcoin tracks the business cycle almost perfectly - Every single time ISM > 50 explosive BTC & ETH moves - ISM is now bottoming at 48.2 and turning up fast Meanwhile: - Global liquidity is surging - The Fed is boxed in with more cuts coming - Fiscal flows are accelerating - Institutions are loading, retail is still scared Sequence locked: 1. Bitcoin breaks out first 2. Ethereum catches fire on liquidity 3. Altseason detonates when the tide overflows The 4-year halving cycle isn’t dead. It got absorbed into the global macro engine. If you’re still waiting for the “post-halving pump” in 2025… you’re trading the wrong calendar. The real trigger is ISM. And it’s flashing green. Position for the inversion. Or get left in the dust. Macro won. Crypto is now its highest-beta play.

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BREAKING: THIS ISN’T A CRASH. IT’S A COIL. Raoul Pal just spelled it out: The old 4-year halving cycle is over. We’re in a liquidity-driven supercycle. For 15 years the script was simple: Halving. Supply shock. Retail mania. Top. Winter. That ended when $125B+ ETFs, sovereigns, and macro funds turned Bitcoin into a global asset. Now we trade liquidity, not calendars. - Business cycle bottoming - Fiscal stimulus loading - Global money printer warming up - Institutions forced to chase Corrections aren’t endings anymore. They’re slingshots. The crowd sees red candles and panic. Macro sees re-entry zones. Parabolic never feels safe. It feels wrong, overextended, “too late”… right until it isn’t. You have a choice: Trade like it’s the old cycle that no longer exists. Or position for the exponential curve already in motion. The dip is temporary. The breakout is coming. Coil loaded. Spring ready. Act like it.

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Bitcoin in the tightest volatility band it’s been in for five years. Three things are going on: 1. Miners have transferred significant compute power to AI, which disrupted the hash rate and muted volatility. 2. Capital has also fled crypto into AI broadly. 3. Four-year cycle believers see that we’re at the tail end of what would typically be the bear market phase; we’re 18 to 19 months from the next halving. All three factors have suppressed the price. But we are still bulls on Bitcoin. As the halving cycle comes back around and supply gets cut again, it tightens price. I think you’ll see it move back above $100,000. This is from my appearance on Squawk Box with Andrew Ross Sorkin this morning live from the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium.

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Bitcoin has only 60 days left. Bitcoin’s macro cycle is repeating perfectly: 2015 ➜ 2017 bull market: 1064 days 2017 ➜ 2018 bear market: 364 days 2018 ➜ 2021 bull market: 1064 days 2021 ➜ 2022 bear market: 364 days 2022 ➜ 2025 bull market: 1064 days If this pattern repeats once more: 2025 ➜ 2026 bear market: 364 days Cycle bottom: October 2026. Save this tweet. Reminder: I’ve called every major Bitcoin top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the $16,000 bottom and the $126,000 top. When I start buying Bitcoin again, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, the next 60 days will show you why that was a mistake.

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WHAT IF THE LAST $BTC DUMP ISN'T COMING? Almost everyone I know is positioned for it. One final flush. One clean macro bottom. Then straight up into the next bull run. But this cycle has already broken the old playbook multiple times: - ATH printed before the halving - Bottoms showing up earlier than usual - A top that could also land earlier The cycle is shifting while most traders are still trading the old 4 year script. That's the mistake I keep seeing. The market has a habit of punishing the trade everyone's waiting for. If 90% need one more leg down before they buy There's a real chance that leg down never shows up.

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What Bitcoin ACTUALLY Needs To Do For Alt-Season To Begin | Benjamin Cowen 00:00 Coming Up 02:30 Bitcoin Dominance vs. Altcoin Pain 03:35 Why 2025 Mirrors 2017’s Pattern 05:42 Bitcoin Highs and Alt Season Link 07:18 Altcoin Trades vs. Long-Term Holds 08:16 ETH Pivot & Regression Bands 13:35 Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? 17:18 Bitcoin’s Rally or Final Top? 23:22 ETF Flows and Institutional Shift 29:16 Fed Pivots and Market Crashes 41:05 What the Next Alt Season Looks Like

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THIS CHART BITCOIN HAS NEVER LIED!!! Now we are no LONGER WAITING, no clickbait or other nonsense. - The setup is 100% COMPLETE - The line held - The reversal is happening This is the moment every holder has been waiting for. This is where price STARTS TO EXPAND, not crawl. This remains the ONLY CHART YOU NEED TO TRUST. And it has played out EXACTLY AS PREDICTED. - No more warnings. - No more patience. The next few days and weeks will be EXTREMELY volatile. I will keep you updated. I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on.

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🚨 I SOLD ALL MY GOLD & SILVER Not because I'm bearish, but to buy $BTC But because every liquidity cycle followed the same pattern: 2018 → Liquidity boost → Bitcoin exploded 2022 → Liquidity boost → Bitcoin exploded 2026 → The same setup is forming again Gold protects wealth. Bitcoin is where global liquidity creates life-changing upside. I’m not waiting for everyone else to realize it. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

151,860 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 IF YOU’RE UNDER 60, YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION The next 6-12 months are the most important months of your financial life. Because the market is setting up the greatest wealth transfer in history. First, stocks will explode into a final blow-off top. Then, crypto will enter the kind of rally that makes people believe the cycle will never end. And right when everyone becomes convinced they’re rich... The recession hits. This is where fortunes will be made AND destroyed. The next 6-12 months will create a RECORD number of millionaires. DON’T WASTE TIME. Most people will still miss it. They’ll hesitate when they should buy. FOMO when they should sell. Opportunities like this are extremely rare. If you’re reading this now, you’re not late. I don’t just track price. I track sentiment. And I’m telling you now: You’re still early. But not for much longer. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:36

🚨 IF YOU’RE UNDER 60, YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION The next 6-12 months are the most important months of your financial life. Because the market is setting up the greatest wealth transfer in history. First, stocks will explode into a final blow-off top. Then, crypto will enter the kind of rally that makes people believe the cycle will never end. And right when everyone becomes convinced they’re rich... The recession hits. This is where fortunes will be made AND destroyed. The next 6-12 months will create a RECORD number of millionaires. DON’T WASTE TIME. Most people will still miss it. They’ll hesitate when they should buy. FOMO when they should sell. Opportunities like this are extremely rare. If you’re reading this now, you’re not late. I don’t just track price. I track sentiment. And I’m telling you now: You’re still early. But not for much longer. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

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Bitcoin bottomed after an 87% dump in 2015. Bitcoin bottomed after an 84% dump in 2018. Bitcoin bottomed after a 78% dump in 2022. And now people really believe this cycle will bottom after only a 50% drop. This time, Bitcoin needs at least a 60%–65% dump before the real market cycle bottom forms. The final capitulation phase is coming next. For the record: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:44

Bitcoin bottomed after an 87% dump in 2015. Bitcoin bottomed after an 84% dump in 2018. Bitcoin bottomed after a 78% dump in 2022. And now people really believe this cycle will bottom after only a 50% drop. This time, Bitcoin needs at least a 60%–65% dump before the real market cycle bottom forms. The final capitulation phase is coming next. For the record: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

195,438 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

BITTENSOR IS DOING TO AI WHAT BITCOIN DID TO MONEY. Same fixed supply. Same halving schedule. No pre-mine. No VC unlock overhang. Fair launch. Founders stepped down from legal authority in February and handed the keys to the community. Full on-chain governance is live. 68% of supply is staked. Daily emissions just got cut in half. Grayscale filed for a spot ETF. Nvidia's CEO endorsed it publicly. $3.2B market cap. Still down 50% from ATH. If you could only hold one AI token for the next 5 years, is it TAO?
4:47

BITTENSOR IS DOING TO AI WHAT BITCOIN DID TO MONEY. Same fixed supply. Same halving schedule. No pre-mine. No VC unlock overhang. Fair launch. Founders stepped down from legal authority in February and handed the keys to the community. Full on-chain governance is live. 68% of supply is staked. Daily emissions just got cut in half. Grayscale filed for a spot ETF. Nvidia's CEO endorsed it publicly. $3.2B market cap. Still down 50% from ATH. If you could only hold one AI token for the next 5 years, is it TAO?

Altcoin Buzz

18,958 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL Bitcoin is repeating the exact same trap that destroyed traders in 2022. 2022: Top 1 → correction → Top 2 → 120-day range → bull trap → dump → manipulation → accumulation. 2026: Top 1 → correction → Top 2 → 120-day range → bull trap → dump → manipulation → accumulation. Most people think the worst is already behind us. But in 2022, this was exactly what the market looked like before the most painful part began. Only after the manipulation came real fear. Only then did most people capitulate. So far, all I see is liquidity being taken from both longs and shorts. But now there is ONE level that matters more than anything: $83K-$85K. That’s the May high. If Bitcoin breaks above it and HOLDS, I will have to change my strategy. That would be the strongest confirmation that the real reversal has already started. But if Bitcoin fails there... Then nothing has changed. The final market-cycle lows we’ve been waiting for are still ahead in the coming months. At $60K, I told my followers to buy and DCA. I did the same. I’m already around 70% invested. The remaining 30% is waiting for one thing: Another opportunity to buy Bitcoin at the best possible price. And one thing remains true in BOTH scenarios: After a move from $60K to $80K, Bitcoin will give us another leg down: - If $83K-$85K breaks and holds, it’s a retest inside the new reversal. - If it fails, we’re still heading toward the final market-cycle lows that have been mathematically proven. Turn off the FOMO. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:29

🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL Bitcoin is repeating the exact same trap that destroyed traders in 2022. 2022: Top 1 → correction → Top 2 → 120-day range → bull trap → dump → manipulation → accumulation. 2026: Top 1 → correction → Top 2 → 120-day range → bull trap → dump → manipulation → accumulation. Most people think the worst is already behind us. But in 2022, this was exactly what the market looked like before the most painful part began. Only after the manipulation came real fear. Only then did most people capitulate. So far, all I see is liquidity being taken from both longs and shorts. But now there is ONE level that matters more than anything: $83K-$85K. That’s the May high. If Bitcoin breaks above it and HOLDS, I will have to change my strategy. That would be the strongest confirmation that the real reversal has already started. But if Bitcoin fails there... Then nothing has changed. The final market-cycle lows we’ve been waiting for are still ahead in the coming months. At $60K, I told my followers to buy and DCA. I did the same. I’m already around 70% invested. The remaining 30% is waiting for one thing: Another opportunity to buy Bitcoin at the best possible price. And one thing remains true in BOTH scenarios: After a move from $60K to $80K, Bitcoin will give us another leg down: - If $83K-$85K breaks and holds, it’s a retest inside the new reversal. - If it fails, we’re still heading toward the final market-cycle lows that have been mathematically proven. Turn off the FOMO. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

310,728 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

🚨 You think $XRP can’t go parabolic because of market cap? THINK AGAIN! They say $XRP can’t hit high prices because the market cap would be “TOO BIG.” That logic is broken! Market cap was made to measure company stock value, not utility-based liquidity tokens. XRP isn’t a stock. It’s monetary plumbing built to move TRILLIONS IN REAL TIME If you’re still applying stock market math to a global liquidity asset, you’re misreading the entire play. XRP's price is not about speculation, it’s about the liquidity demand it must meet. Ripple's expansion (GTreasury, Ripple Prime, Rail, Metaco and more) tells the real story. Don’t limit the future with outdated metrics. Repost if this shifted how you think about $XRP. Follow if you’re ready to go deeper. Now it makes sense, right? 👇
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🚨 You think $XRP can’t go parabolic because of market cap? THINK AGAIN! They say $XRP can’t hit high prices because the market cap would be “TOO BIG.” That logic is broken! Market cap was made to measure company stock value, not utility-based liquidity tokens. XRP isn’t a stock. It’s monetary plumbing built to move TRILLIONS IN REAL TIME If you’re still applying stock market math to a global liquidity asset, you’re misreading the entire play. XRP's price is not about speculation, it’s about the liquidity demand it must meet. Ripple's expansion (GTreasury, Ripple Prime, Rail, Metaco and more) tells the real story. Don’t limit the future with outdated metrics. Repost if this shifted how you think about $XRP. Follow if you’re ready to go deeper. Now it makes sense, right? 👇

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