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BREAKING: MACRO JUST FLIPPED. AND BITCOIN IS ALREADY PRICING IT IN. Tom Lee, live on CNBC: “Bitcoin no longer follows the halving. It follows the ISM. When ISM crosses above 50, crypto goes into supercycle mode.” The data is brutal: - Detrended Bitcoin tracks the business cycle almost perfectly...

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Merlijn The Trader

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338,912 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 BITCOIN JUST GOT A MAJOR MACRO BULL SIGNAL. U.S. ISM Manufacturing just surged to 55.6, beating expectations of 54. Above 50 = economic expansion. And historically, a rising ISM cycle has been one of the strongest macro backdrops for Bitcoin. The same expansionary environment helped fuel the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. Now ISM is back at its highest level since 2022. If it stays above 50, the macro cycle is turning increasingly bullish for Bitcoin. Don't ignore this.
0:25

🚨 BITCOIN JUST GOT A MAJOR MACRO BULL SIGNAL. U.S. ISM Manufacturing just surged to 55.6, beating expectations of 54. Above 50 = economic expansion. And historically, a rising ISM cycle has been one of the strongest macro backdrops for Bitcoin. The same expansionary environment helped fuel the 2017 and 2021 bull markets. Now ISM is back at its highest level since 2022. If it stays above 50, the macro cycle is turning increasingly bullish for Bitcoin. Don't ignore this.

Mister Crypto

15,943 просмотров • 20 дней назад

BREAKING: THIS ISN’T A CRASH. IT’S A COIL. Raoul Pal just spelled it out: The old 4-year halving cycle is over. We’re in a liquidity-driven supercycle. For 15 years the script was simple: Halving. Supply shock. Retail mania. Top. Winter. That ended when $125B+ ETFs, sovereigns, and macro funds turned Bitcoin into a global asset. Now we trade liquidity, not calendars. - Business cycle bottoming - Fiscal stimulus loading - Global money printer warming up - Institutions forced to chase Corrections aren’t endings anymore. They’re slingshots. The crowd sees red candles and panic. Macro sees re-entry zones. Parabolic never feels safe. It feels wrong, overextended, “too late”… right until it isn’t. You have a choice: Trade like it’s the old cycle that no longer exists. Or position for the exponential curve already in motion. The dip is temporary. The breakout is coming. Coil loaded. Spring ready. Act like it.
1:14

BREAKING: THIS ISN’T A CRASH. IT’S A COIL. Raoul Pal just spelled it out: The old 4-year halving cycle is over. We’re in a liquidity-driven supercycle. For 15 years the script was simple: Halving. Supply shock. Retail mania. Top. Winter. That ended when $125B+ ETFs, sovereigns, and macro funds turned Bitcoin into a global asset. Now we trade liquidity, not calendars. - Business cycle bottoming - Fiscal stimulus loading - Global money printer warming up - Institutions forced to chase Corrections aren’t endings anymore. They’re slingshots. The crowd sees red candles and panic. Macro sees re-entry zones. Parabolic never feels safe. It feels wrong, overextended, “too late”… right until it isn’t. You have a choice: Trade like it’s the old cycle that no longer exists. Or position for the exponential curve already in motion. The dip is temporary. The breakout is coming. Coil loaded. Spring ready. Act like it.

Merlijn The Trader

112,555 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

🔥TOM LEE: “THIS DOESN’T LOOK LIKE A 4-YEAR BITCOIN CYCLE.” Lee argues this cycle is behaving differently from every prior Bitcoin cycle: 1️⃣ On-chain activity is rising. ETH addresses, usage, and TVL are moving higher — the opposite of prior cycle tops. 2️⃣ Leverage washout already happened. The October 10 selloff wiped out more leverage than November 2022, effectively front-loading the pain. 3️⃣ The macro cycle doesn’t confirm a peak. Bitcoin has never topped without ISM peaking — yet ISM has been below 50 for 36 straight months. 4️⃣ Inter-market signals don’t align. Every $BTC peak coincided with copper outperforming gold — today, gold is still leading.
2:16

🔥TOM LEE: “THIS DOESN’T LOOK LIKE A 4-YEAR BITCOIN CYCLE.” Lee argues this cycle is behaving differently from every prior Bitcoin cycle: 1️⃣ On-chain activity is rising. ETH addresses, usage, and TVL are moving higher — the opposite of prior cycle tops. 2️⃣ Leverage washout already happened. The October 10 selloff wiped out more leverage than November 2022, effectively front-loading the pain. 3️⃣ The macro cycle doesn’t confirm a peak. Bitcoin has never topped without ISM peaking — yet ISM has been below 50 for 36 straight months. 4️⃣ Inter-market signals don’t align. Every $BTC peak coincided with copper outperforming gold — today, gold is still leading.

Coin Bureau

64,095 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

BREAKING: RAOUL PAL JUST CALLED THE ALTCOIN SUPERCYCLE. 2026 isn’t another year. It’s the vertical phase. His exact words: “Bitcoin leads. Ethereum follows. Then liquidity spills into everything else and alts go parabolic.” Timeline: 12–18 months from today. The setup is perfect: - Rate cuts are locked and loading - Global liquidity is surging - Retail is still scared and sidelined - Institutions are quietly accumulating First half of the bull: institutional repricing Second half: retail FOMO into garbage That’s when the 10–50× rotations happen in silence. Right now the market isn’t late. It’s coiled like a spring. Altseason isn’t dead. It’s sleeping. And 2026 is the alarm clock. Front-run the fear. Don’t chase the frenzy. Position now. Or watch from the sidelines when the rocket leaves.
1:38

BREAKING: RAOUL PAL JUST CALLED THE ALTCOIN SUPERCYCLE. 2026 isn’t another year. It’s the vertical phase. His exact words: “Bitcoin leads. Ethereum follows. Then liquidity spills into everything else and alts go parabolic.” Timeline: 12–18 months from today. The setup is perfect: - Rate cuts are locked and loading - Global liquidity is surging - Retail is still scared and sidelined - Institutions are quietly accumulating First half of the bull: institutional repricing Second half: retail FOMO into garbage That’s when the 10–50× rotations happen in silence. Right now the market isn’t late. It’s coiled like a spring. Altseason isn’t dead. It’s sleeping. And 2026 is the alarm clock. Front-run the fear. Don’t chase the frenzy. Position now. Or watch from the sidelines when the rocket leaves.

Merlijn The Trader

51,885 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

5 red monthly candles on ETH and altcoins falling nonstop. But after years, PMI regional data is pointing toward expansion. The business cycle that has correlated with every crypto bull and bear is shifting. The last two times crypto looked like this on the macro, it was the bottom. I could be wrong and if I am I'll say it. But the data right now doesn't say bear market starting. It says bear market ending. ISM prints tomorrow morning... Intro 00:00 ISM PMI about to turn 00:50 Bitcoin bear vs. bull 2:50 Ethereum 7:30 Altcoins 13:25
18:41

5 red monthly candles on ETH and altcoins falling nonstop. But after years, PMI regional data is pointing toward expansion. The business cycle that has correlated with every crypto bull and bear is shifting. The last two times crypto looked like this on the macro, it was the bottom. I could be wrong and if I am I'll say it. But the data right now doesn't say bear market starting. It says bear market ending. ISM prints tomorrow morning... Intro 00:00 ISM PMI about to turn 00:50 Bitcoin bear vs. bull 2:50 Ethereum 7:30 Altcoins 13:25

Dan Gambardello

65,274 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

ALTSEASON ISN’T DEAD. IT’S LOADING. Raoul Pal just nailed it: “Alts don’t run on hopium. They run on macro.” - Tight cycle, no risk appetite - Business cycle expansion, altcoin explosion And the macro is turning fast. - $150B+ in tax refunds hitting households 2026 - Fed easing cycle underway - Global liquidity surging - Treasury run by a macro trader - Policy tailwinds guaranteed Altcoins behave exactly like small caps. They rip hardest when liquidity rips. The next wave isn’t driven by hype. It’s driven by policy. Sentiment is fear. Prices are discounted. Capital is on the sidelines. This isn’t just another setup. This is the perfect storm. The herd isn’t here yet. But when it arrives… It won’t ask permission. Front-run the expansion. Or get trampled by it. Altseason isn’t coming. It’s loading. Get ready.
1:38

ALTSEASON ISN’T DEAD. IT’S LOADING. Raoul Pal just nailed it: “Alts don’t run on hopium. They run on macro.” - Tight cycle, no risk appetite - Business cycle expansion, altcoin explosion And the macro is turning fast. - $150B+ in tax refunds hitting households 2026 - Fed easing cycle underway - Global liquidity surging - Treasury run by a macro trader - Policy tailwinds guaranteed Altcoins behave exactly like small caps. They rip hardest when liquidity rips. The next wave isn’t driven by hype. It’s driven by policy. Sentiment is fear. Prices are discounted. Capital is on the sidelines. This isn’t just another setup. This is the perfect storm. The herd isn’t here yet. But when it arrives… It won’t ask permission. Front-run the expansion. Or get trampled by it. Altseason isn’t coming. It’s loading. Get ready.

Merlijn The Trader

84,910 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

🚨 THIS CHART PREDICTED EVERY BITCOIN BOTTOM SINCE 2011 Bitcoin and macro cycles are heavily correlated, believe it or not. Every time the business cycle bottoms and starts moving toward expansion → Bitcoin explodes with it. The liquidity cycle isn’t even halfway done, and BTC is bleeding heavily. As soon as the business cycle starts expanding, we can expect Bitcoin to start moving again. Right now, we’re in the phase where most get shaken out. Stick to your analysis and hold on to your positions. Historically, you will win in the end.
0:52

🚨 THIS CHART PREDICTED EVERY BITCOIN BOTTOM SINCE 2011 Bitcoin and macro cycles are heavily correlated, believe it or not. Every time the business cycle bottoms and starts moving toward expansion → Bitcoin explodes with it. The liquidity cycle isn’t even halfway done, and BTC is bleeding heavily. As soon as the business cycle starts expanding, we can expect Bitcoin to start moving again. Right now, we’re in the phase where most get shaken out. Stick to your analysis and hold on to your positions. Historically, you will win in the end.

Coinvo Trading

59,678 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

“The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is DEAD! Here’s What Replaces It" | James Lavish 0:00 Coming Up 1:31 Are We Still in a Bull Market? 3:37 The Death of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle 5:12 – Global Liquidity Is Drying Up Fast 8:41 The Fed’s Hidden Liquidity Problem 13:25 QE Is Quietly Coming Back 17:27 Politics, Midterms and Fed Power Plays 23:11 Endless Deficits Mean Dollar Debasement 29:19 Why Retail Investors Keep Losing 42:50 Inside the Bitcoin Treasury Boom 59:29 Bitcoin’s Path to $150K and Beyond
1:02:51

“The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is DEAD! Here’s What Replaces It" | James Lavish 0:00 Coming Up 1:31 Are We Still in a Bull Market? 3:37 The Death of Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle 5:12 – Global Liquidity Is Drying Up Fast 8:41 The Fed’s Hidden Liquidity Problem 13:25 QE Is Quietly Coming Back 17:27 Politics, Midterms and Fed Power Plays 23:11 Endless Deficits Mean Dollar Debasement 29:19 Why Retail Investors Keep Losing 42:50 Inside the Bitcoin Treasury Boom 59:29 Bitcoin’s Path to $150K and Beyond

The Wolf Of All Streets

43,739 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

🚨 TOM LEE DOUBLES DOWN "If $BTC holds current momentum, I expect it to do better than $150K this year." Markets are finally pricing in shrinking supply, institutional flows, and the macro pivot. Sentiment is shifting fast — and Bitcoin is still wildly underowned. 2025 could be the year FOMO becomes policy 💥
1:17

🚨 TOM LEE DOUBLES DOWN "If $BTC holds current momentum, I expect it to do better than $150K this year." Markets are finally pricing in shrinking supply, institutional flows, and the macro pivot. Sentiment is shifting fast — and Bitcoin is still wildly underowned. 2025 could be the year FOMO becomes policy 💥

COACHTY

152,485 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

🚨 BITCOIN FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN FOR 12 YEARS Everyone says the cycle is dead. But the chart says the opposite. Bitcoin has followed the same timing pattern for more than a DECADE../ Cycle top → 1430 days. Cycle bottom → 1460 days. This happened in 2013. This happened in 2017. This happened in 2021. This happened in 2025. Now Bitcoin is following the same structure one more time. The last major top came almost exactly on schedule, around 1431 days after the previous cycle top. That is not random. That is the cycle repeating. Now the next major low is projected around 1460 days from the last cycle bottom. That means the final dump is not chaos. It is part of the same pattern Bitcoin has followed for years. People will call it panic. People will call it the end. But historically, this is where Bitcoin creates the next bottom. Same timing. Same structure. Same cycle. Final bottom: 2026. Then the next expansion starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
0:41

🚨 BITCOIN FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN FOR 12 YEARS Everyone says the cycle is dead. But the chart says the opposite. Bitcoin has followed the same timing pattern for more than a DECADE../ Cycle top → 1430 days. Cycle bottom → 1460 days. This happened in 2013. This happened in 2017. This happened in 2021. This happened in 2025. Now Bitcoin is following the same structure one more time. The last major top came almost exactly on schedule, around 1431 days after the previous cycle top. That is not random. That is the cycle repeating. Now the next major low is projected around 1460 days from the last cycle bottom. That means the final dump is not chaos. It is part of the same pattern Bitcoin has followed for years. People will call it panic. People will call it the end. But historically, this is where Bitcoin creates the next bottom. Same timing. Same structure. Same cycle. Final bottom: 2026. Then the next expansion starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

28,699 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨 THIS IS THE TRUTH MOST PEOPLE STILL DON’T UNDERSTAND 🚨 Retail is giving up on crypto. After months of chop, no new ATHs, and endless volatility, many former crypto traders are running back to stocks hoping for “safer” returns. But the timing couldn’t be worse. The stock market is sitting at historically stretched valuations while recession fears, liquidity issues, and macro uncertainty continue building beneath the surface. Meanwhile, institutions are quietly doing the opposite of retail. In 2026 alone, Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed tens of billions in capital. Some weeks saw over $1B in inflows in just a few trading days. BlackRock, pension funds, hedge funds, and sovereign players are accumulating while retail investors are distracted by fear and boredom. This cycle is no longer driven by hype. It’s driven by institutional flows. The old four-year cycle is dead. ETFs now move more capital in days than miners produce in weeks. That changes everything. Most people think crypto is dead because price action has been slow. Smart money understands this is exactly how accumulation phases look before expansion begins. At the same time, traditional markets are showing cracks everywhere: • Debt levels are exploding • Liquidity is tightening • Consumers are getting weaker • Global tensions are rising • Confidence in fiat systems continues to erode And when the next wave of monetary easing starts, capital will search for the hardest assets on Earth. Bitcoin will be one of them. Retail is preparing for a stock market recovery. Institutions are preparing for the next crypto expansion
0:30

🚨 THIS IS THE TRUTH MOST PEOPLE STILL DON’T UNDERSTAND 🚨 Retail is giving up on crypto. After months of chop, no new ATHs, and endless volatility, many former crypto traders are running back to stocks hoping for “safer” returns. But the timing couldn’t be worse. The stock market is sitting at historically stretched valuations while recession fears, liquidity issues, and macro uncertainty continue building beneath the surface. Meanwhile, institutions are quietly doing the opposite of retail. In 2026 alone, Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed tens of billions in capital. Some weeks saw over $1B in inflows in just a few trading days. BlackRock, pension funds, hedge funds, and sovereign players are accumulating while retail investors are distracted by fear and boredom. This cycle is no longer driven by hype. It’s driven by institutional flows. The old four-year cycle is dead. ETFs now move more capital in days than miners produce in weeks. That changes everything. Most people think crypto is dead because price action has been slow. Smart money understands this is exactly how accumulation phases look before expansion begins. At the same time, traditional markets are showing cracks everywhere: • Debt levels are exploding • Liquidity is tightening • Consumers are getting weaker • Global tensions are rising • Confidence in fiat systems continues to erode And when the next wave of monetary easing starts, capital will search for the hardest assets on Earth. Bitcoin will be one of them. Retail is preparing for a stock market recovery. Institutions are preparing for the next crypto expansion

Daniel Lee

10,622 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.
1:06

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.

George Noble

133,893 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

The rate cut isn’t the real story today. Everyone is staring at the Fed short term headlines which ultimately do not matter…meanwhile the actual macro signals are flashing. The Russell 2000 is breaking into all-time-high territory. That’s the chart that maps directly to business activity, PMI expansion, and liquidity rotations. And every time this happens near the end of a tightening cycle, it leads into a full-on altcoin expansion cycle. Add in a transitioning Fed, a pro-growth policy shift coming in 2026, QT ending, and Ethereum pressing a multi-year breakout…and the setup is epic. If you’re an altcoin holder, this is the moment to pay attention. Intro 00:00 The real FED news to watch 1:40 Russell 2000 4:55 Altcoins 7:20 Ethereum 9:05
12:20

The rate cut isn’t the real story today. Everyone is staring at the Fed short term headlines which ultimately do not matter…meanwhile the actual macro signals are flashing. The Russell 2000 is breaking into all-time-high territory. That’s the chart that maps directly to business activity, PMI expansion, and liquidity rotations. And every time this happens near the end of a tightening cycle, it leads into a full-on altcoin expansion cycle. Add in a transitioning Fed, a pro-growth policy shift coming in 2026, QT ending, and Ethereum pressing a multi-year breakout…and the setup is epic. If you’re an altcoin holder, this is the moment to pay attention. Intro 00:00 The real FED news to watch 1:40 Russell 2000 4:55 Altcoins 7:20 Ethereum 9:05

Dan Gambardello

65,156 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.
57:16

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.

Bitcoin Magazine

19,345 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The exact plan for the 2026 Bitcoin cycle: Bitcoin is preparing for the final dump before $200K The bear market is already 75% done. And BTC is still following the exact path I warned about: $73K → $68K → $62K → $50K → $200K Next stops are simple: → $60K dump → Bear market bottom in September Most people will panic here. That is exactly where the real opportunity starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
0:24

The exact plan for the 2026 Bitcoin cycle: Bitcoin is preparing for the final dump before $200K The bear market is already 75% done. And BTC is still following the exact path I warned about: $73K → $68K → $62K → $50K → $200K Next stops are simple: → $60K dump → Bear market bottom in September Most people will panic here. That is exactly where the real opportunity starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

22,794 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU
34:04

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU

Raoul Pal

533,987 просмотров • 1 год назад

💥🎙️"WHY I SOLD MY BITCOIN" - Willy Woo on The Archie Podcast Willy is convinced we are in the late stages of the bull market before a downturn. We talk about: - Bitcoin Treasury Co bubble - 4 Year cycles could be over - Bitcoin is now a global macro asset - Investing in Bitcoin start-ups 𝕏: **Partners** GEMINI - Buy Bitcoin 👉 - Gemini is a full-reserve, and highly-regulated cryptocurrency exchange and custodian. DeBiFi - Bitcoin-backed loans 👉 - Use Bitcoin to borrow cash. Flexible conditions and great rates. TIMESTAMPS 1:10 - Baltic Honey Badger 3:00 - Who Is Willy Woo? 6:15 - Are Bitcoin Cycles Over? 11:10 - Halving Effects: Then and Now 13:10 - Institutional Effect on Halvings 16:25 - Bitcoin Treasury Companies 21:25 - The Liquidity of Bitcoin 24:20 - Future Rate Cuts 30:25 - Are We At The End Of The Bitcoin Bull Market 32:30 - Willy Woo Selling All of Bitcoin 37:10 - Free Markets 50:20 - Coinbase Market Domination 54:25 - Bitcoin: Means of Exchange or Store of Value 59:45 - The Lightning Network
1:02:51

💥🎙️"WHY I SOLD MY BITCOIN" - Willy Woo on The Archie Podcast Willy is convinced we are in the late stages of the bull market before a downturn. We talk about: - Bitcoin Treasury Co bubble - 4 Year cycles could be over - Bitcoin is now a global macro asset - Investing in Bitcoin start-ups 𝕏: **Partners** GEMINI - Buy Bitcoin 👉 - Gemini is a full-reserve, and highly-regulated cryptocurrency exchange and custodian. DeBiFi - Bitcoin-backed loans 👉 - Use Bitcoin to borrow cash. Flexible conditions and great rates. TIMESTAMPS 1:10 - Baltic Honey Badger 3:00 - Who Is Willy Woo? 6:15 - Are Bitcoin Cycles Over? 11:10 - Halving Effects: Then and Now 13:10 - Institutional Effect on Halvings 16:25 - Bitcoin Treasury Companies 21:25 - The Liquidity of Bitcoin 24:20 - Future Rate Cuts 30:25 - Are We At The End Of The Bitcoin Bull Market 32:30 - Willy Woo Selling All of Bitcoin 37:10 - Free Markets 50:20 - Coinbase Market Domination 54:25 - Bitcoin: Means of Exchange or Store of Value 59:45 - The Lightning Network

Bitcoin Archive

222,096 просмотров • 1 год назад