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"Bitcoin is oversold. It's been artificially lumped in with software stocks for no good reason." Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden) on why the crash hit Bitcoin harder than it should have: "The washout from the Treasury company mNAVs was painful. The quantum FUD had to be explored. The four-year cycle...

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Michaël van de Poppe

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127,532 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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“Gun to my head… I’d bet Bitcoin over gold.” – Lyn Alden Gold sentiment is euphoric. Bitcoin sentiment is still negative. That imbalance may matter more than anything over the next few years. 👇
0:30

“Gun to my head… I’d bet Bitcoin over gold.” – Lyn Alden Gold sentiment is euphoric. Bitcoin sentiment is still negative. That imbalance may matter more than anything over the next few years. 👇

Swan

24,576 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

I sat down with Lyn Alden for over an hour. She told me the 4-year cycle is dead. That gold is euphoric. And that Bitcoin, down 50%, is where she'd put her money right now. "Gun to my head, Bitcoin over gold for the next 2-3 years." This might be the most important conversation I've had on New Era Finance Podcast. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Introduction 0:46 Why there hasn't been enough Bitcoin demand this cycle 5:03 The 4-year cycle is dead 7:22 Are we near the bottom? 8:50 The future of treasury companies 15:03 Why Bitcoin underperformed this year 17:24 Bitcoin is trading like a software stock 21:07 Can anything replace Bitcoin? 26:13 Bitcoin mining and stranded energy 30:35 Will quantum computing destroy Bitcoin? 37:06 How to think about AI as an investor 45:00 We're entering a multipolar world 53:00 Bitcoin vs Gold — gun to my head 58:56 The #1 thing every investor should study 1:06:34 Diversification with conviction
1:11:53

I sat down with Lyn Alden for over an hour. She told me the 4-year cycle is dead. That gold is euphoric. And that Bitcoin, down 50%, is where she'd put her money right now. "Gun to my head, Bitcoin over gold for the next 2-3 years." This might be the most important conversation I've had on New Era Finance Podcast. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Introduction 0:46 Why there hasn't been enough Bitcoin demand this cycle 5:03 The 4-year cycle is dead 7:22 Are we near the bottom? 8:50 The future of treasury companies 15:03 Why Bitcoin underperformed this year 17:24 Bitcoin is trading like a software stock 21:07 Can anything replace Bitcoin? 26:13 Bitcoin mining and stranded energy 30:35 Will quantum computing destroy Bitcoin? 37:06 How to think about AI as an investor 45:00 We're entering a multipolar world 53:00 Bitcoin vs Gold — gun to my head 58:56 The #1 thing every investor should study 1:06:34 Diversification with conviction

Michaël van de Poppe

340,248 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

LYN ALDEN SAYS THE OLD BITCOIN CYCLE IS DEAD Lyn Alden said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t as relevant anymore. With BTC’s annual supply growth now well under 1% -- lower than gold -- halvings aren’t the main driver they used to be. What matters more now is sentiment and valuation. 💯 She pointed out that interest has shifted to AI and gold, #Bitcoin treasury premiums have collapsed, and on-chain metrics have compressed — making $BTC more attractive, not less. Her takeaway is this isn’t the time to chase excitement, but it’s the time to lean in when Bitcoin feels boring and ignored. That’s usually where long-term entries get built. 💪 📹 Paul Barron Network
1:31

LYN ALDEN SAYS THE OLD BITCOIN CYCLE IS DEAD Lyn Alden said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t as relevant anymore. With BTC’s annual supply growth now well under 1% -- lower than gold -- halvings aren’t the main driver they used to be. What matters more now is sentiment and valuation. 💯 She pointed out that interest has shifted to AI and gold, #Bitcoin treasury premiums have collapsed, and on-chain metrics have compressed — making $BTC more attractive, not less. Her takeaway is this isn’t the time to chase excitement, but it’s the time to lean in when Bitcoin feels boring and ignored. That’s usually where long-term entries get built. 💪 📹 Paul Barron Network

CryptosRus

76,910 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Threadguy predicts this will be the first bull run in crypto history where Bitcoin doesn't participate "This is going to be the first bull run in the history of crypto where Bitcoin flat out does not participate. No role, no say, it will be minimal at best. It will be Bitcoin to $75k, Bitcoin to $80k, Bitcoin to $85k, and there will be mania on-chain." "My entire thesis is that the next cycle comes from new blood getting access to on chain through these apps. This new crowd doesn't even know what Bitcoin is. Anyone that joined because they saw Kimchi or Cented or Rasmr, they don't know what Bitcoin is. If there's a pocket of excitement and new blood in crypto, it will have nothing to do with Bitcoin, the same way Bitcoin had nothing to do with the disaster that on-chain became in 2025. You cannot have it both ways. The two have been separated for years."
3:01

Threadguy predicts this will be the first bull run in crypto history where Bitcoin doesn't participate "This is going to be the first bull run in the history of crypto where Bitcoin flat out does not participate. No role, no say, it will be minimal at best. It will be Bitcoin to $75k, Bitcoin to $80k, Bitcoin to $85k, and there will be mania on-chain." "My entire thesis is that the next cycle comes from new blood getting access to on chain through these apps. This new crowd doesn't even know what Bitcoin is. Anyone that joined because they saw Kimchi or Cented or Rasmr, they don't know what Bitcoin is. If there's a pocket of excitement and new blood in crypto, it will have nothing to do with Bitcoin, the same way Bitcoin had nothing to do with the disaster that on-chain became in 2025. You cannot have it both ways. The two have been separated for years."

Kai

44,989 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER
1:25

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER

George Noble

11,852 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

JUST IN:🔥 Lyn Alden explains that in the long term, #Bitcoin is correlated to measures of global liquidity rather than U.S. stocks “I view Bitcoin as not only a good performing asset, but one that is tied to global liquidity and is not necessarily correlated to other portfolio assets.” Lyn Alden
2:06

JUST IN:🔥 Lyn Alden explains that in the long term, #Bitcoin is correlated to measures of global liquidity rather than U.S. stocks “I view Bitcoin as not only a good performing asset, but one that is tied to global liquidity and is not necessarily correlated to other portfolio assets.” Lyn Alden

Simply Bitcoin

69,829 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Ray Dalio about Bitcoin: "I have a small percentage of Bitcoin I've had forever, like 1% of my portfolio. I've said the same thing over and over again about Bitcoin. I think the problem of Bitcoin is it's not going to be a reserve currency for major countries because it can be tracked and it could be conceivably with quantum computing controlled, hacked, and so on and so forth."
0:25

Ray Dalio about Bitcoin: "I have a small percentage of Bitcoin I've had forever, like 1% of my portfolio. I've said the same thing over and over again about Bitcoin. I think the problem of Bitcoin is it's not going to be a reserve currency for major countries because it can be tracked and it could be conceivably with quantum computing controlled, hacked, and so on and so forth."

*Walter Bloomberg

1,958,702 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.
0:57

Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.

Milk Road Stocks

895,363 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO DO WHAT IT DID AFTER THE COVID CRASH The copper-to-gold ratio is literally lower than it was before the 2020 bull run. Whenever the ratio is low → risk-off sentiment. When the ratio is high → risk-on sentiment = bullish for risk assets. It's so low right now that a rotation into copper is almost inevitable at any moment. History has already shown that if it happens, Bitcoin explodes. Don't miss this once again.
0:51

🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO DO WHAT IT DID AFTER THE COVID CRASH The copper-to-gold ratio is literally lower than it was before the 2020 bull run. Whenever the ratio is low → risk-off sentiment. When the ratio is high → risk-on sentiment = bullish for risk assets. It's so low right now that a rotation into copper is almost inevitable at any moment. History has already shown that if it happens, Bitcoin explodes. Don't miss this once again.

Coinvo Trading

24,951 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Cathie Wood Cathie Wood of ARK Invest: Bitcoin was declining relative to gold. It now appears to be bottoming. Gold itself is declining. She is staying bullish. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart she presented on July 2 shows the ratio has held at a floor while gold moved lower. Wood reads this as the start of a resumption of the "volatile but broad uptrend" visible on the long-term chart. The macro context behind the call: in a deflationary tech regime with falling rates, Bitcoin benefits as a risk-on digital store of value. The rotation from gold to Bitcoin is consistent with the broader ARK thesis on financial innovation. Michael Saylor Michael Saylor has made the structural case for Bitcoin over gold more forcefully than anyone - argues Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital properties make it the superior store of value over any multi-year horizon. Bitcoin, gold, and the deflationary thesis: Source: ARK Invest In the Know -
0:31

Cathie Wood Cathie Wood of ARK Invest: Bitcoin was declining relative to gold. It now appears to be bottoming. Gold itself is declining. She is staying bullish. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart she presented on July 2 shows the ratio has held at a floor while gold moved lower. Wood reads this as the start of a resumption of the "volatile but broad uptrend" visible on the long-term chart. The macro context behind the call: in a deflationary tech regime with falling rates, Bitcoin benefits as a risk-on digital store of value. The rotation from gold to Bitcoin is consistent with the broader ARK thesis on financial innovation. Michael Saylor Michael Saylor has made the structural case for Bitcoin over gold more forcefully than anyone - argues Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital properties make it the superior store of value over any multi-year horizon. Bitcoin, gold, and the deflationary thesis: Source: ARK Invest In the Know -

Podcast Alpha

17,024 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 BITCOIN HAS NEVER BEEN THIS UNDERVALUED When Bitcoin drops to this level against gold, it's always an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price. The math has been accurate since 2010 through every crash and every bull run, so there's no reason to doubt it now. Right now, the price is far below where it should be according to the historical valuation ranges. This is exactly where real money gets made. It's also where most people regret not buying a year from now. Act accordingly.
0:33

🚨 BITCOIN HAS NEVER BEEN THIS UNDERVALUED When Bitcoin drops to this level against gold, it's always an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price. The math has been accurate since 2010 through every crash and every bull run, so there's no reason to doubt it now. Right now, the price is far below where it should be according to the historical valuation ranges. This is exactly where real money gets made. It's also where most people regret not buying a year from now. Act accordingly.

Coinvo Trading

20,914 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”
1:00

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”

Arjun Khemani

569,098 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

OG Barry Silbert believes #Bittensor has the potential to be bigger than #Bitcoin ⚫️ "When I think about ways that #Bitcoin could be improved upon.. I believe, is to utilize the incentive being paid to #Bitcoin miners to incent an activity beyond just securing the network" "So with #Bittensor, potentially, given that it is identical to #Bitcoin and that it was a fair launch, there was no VC funding or foundation or pre-mine, there was no airdrops, it's capped at 21 million, you have halvings.. it's just like #Bitcoin" "But the difference, and I think kind of the benefit, is the incentive used by #Bitcoin miners is instead being redirected to build out #Bittensor and to incent people to engage" "And from that perspective, there's no reason to believe that #Bittensor could not be as big or even bigger than #Bitcoin" Full #Bittensor documentary dropping October 29, 2025 👇 $TAO
1:16

OG Barry Silbert believes #Bittensor has the potential to be bigger than #Bitcoin ⚫️ "When I think about ways that #Bitcoin could be improved upon.. I believe, is to utilize the incentive being paid to #Bitcoin miners to incent an activity beyond just securing the network" "So with #Bittensor, potentially, given that it is identical to #Bitcoin and that it was a fair launch, there was no VC funding or foundation or pre-mine, there was no airdrops, it's capped at 21 million, you have halvings.. it's just like #Bitcoin" "But the difference, and I think kind of the benefit, is the incentive used by #Bitcoin miners is instead being redirected to build out #Bittensor and to incent people to engage" "And from that perspective, there's no reason to believe that #Bittensor could not be as big or even bigger than #Bitcoin" Full #Bittensor documentary dropping October 29, 2025 👇 $TAO

𝗗𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗 𝗕𝗢𝗡𝗚𝗢

24,786 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Bitcoin is money. It's the greatest monetary invention in the history of mankind. Michael Saylor has been the best spokesman for Bitcoin we could have. But Bitcoin does not need Bitcoin Treasury Companies, Blackrock, or governments to succeed. They need Bitcoin. Full stop.
3:41

Bitcoin is money. It's the greatest monetary invention in the history of mankind. Michael Saylor has been the best spokesman for Bitcoin we could have. But Bitcoin does not need Bitcoin Treasury Companies, Blackrock, or governments to succeed. They need Bitcoin. Full stop.

George Bodine

14,047 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

ANTHONY POMPLIANO IS SUPER BULLISH ON BITCOIN DURING THIS BEAR MARKET: "I own more Bitcoin today than I did before the drawdown and we've got a public company that they own more Bitcoin than we did before the drawdown." "Anyone who holds Bitcoin and doesn't think that it's gonna hit a new all-time high at some point the next two or three years then maybe they don't really understand what they own." "I actually think it's very important that we don't know who Satoshi is... I prefer not to know because I think that one of the strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that it is not associated with any one person." "We are ALL Satoshi?"
2:21

ANTHONY POMPLIANO IS SUPER BULLISH ON BITCOIN DURING THIS BEAR MARKET: "I own more Bitcoin today than I did before the drawdown and we've got a public company that they own more Bitcoin than we did before the drawdown." "Anyone who holds Bitcoin and doesn't think that it's gonna hit a new all-time high at some point the next two or three years then maybe they don't really understand what they own." "I actually think it's very important that we don't know who Satoshi is... I prefer not to know because I think that one of the strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that it is not associated with any one person." "We are ALL Satoshi?"

Simply Bitcoin

161,140 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

The World Economic Forum doesn't talk about Bitcoin - so I made sure that we did in 2025. I took the chance to ask if the US will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve during the 'Crypto at a Crossroads' session inside this year's WEF conference. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong remains confident we will see a Bitcoin reserve in America. Interestingly, South Africa's Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago made it evident that many still don't understand the underlying value proposition of Bitcoin. Armstrong provided an important response: "Many things have been used as money over the years. I think it's clear at this point that, you know, Bitcoin is a better form of money than gold. It is provably scarce, just like gold, but it's more portable and divisible. So you can actually use it. It was the best performing asset of the last ten years. And so for a store of value, I think it's going to be important for governments to hold this over time. It may not it might start with being 1% of their reserves, but I think over time it'll come to be equal to or greater than gold reserves." Cointelegraph
4:31

The World Economic Forum doesn't talk about Bitcoin - so I made sure that we did in 2025. I took the chance to ask if the US will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve during the 'Crypto at a Crossroads' session inside this year's WEF conference. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong remains confident we will see a Bitcoin reserve in America. Interestingly, South Africa's Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago made it evident that many still don't understand the underlying value proposition of Bitcoin. Armstrong provided an important response: "Many things have been used as money over the years. I think it's clear at this point that, you know, Bitcoin is a better form of money than gold. It is provably scarce, just like gold, but it's more portable and divisible. So you can actually use it. It was the best performing asset of the last ten years. And so for a store of value, I think it's going to be important for governments to hold this over time. It may not it might start with being 1% of their reserves, but I think over time it'll come to be equal to or greater than gold reserves." Cointelegraph

Gareth Jenkinson

452,090 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

🔥LYN ALDEN: NOTHING IS COMING TO SAVE BITCOIN “I don’t think there’s anything coming to save Bitcoin,” Alden said, adding BTC must succeed on its own merits rather than external catalysts. She said BTC must rely on real buyers seeing its "value" in cheap sats, and not on hype or fast money. Once the price starts recovering, Alden said outside money could return and help fuel the next leg higher. Until then, Bitcoin “has to survive on its own merits.”
0:50

🔥LYN ALDEN: NOTHING IS COMING TO SAVE BITCOIN “I don’t think there’s anything coming to save Bitcoin,” Alden said, adding BTC must succeed on its own merits rather than external catalysts. She said BTC must rely on real buyers seeing its "value" in cheap sats, and not on hype or fast money. Once the price starts recovering, Alden said outside money could return and help fuel the next leg higher. Until then, Bitcoin “has to survive on its own merits.”

Coin Bureau

152,552 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

.Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss explaining their gold 2.0 thesis in 2017 when bitcoin was $17k "Whatever your reasons for investing in gold, whether is scarcity, durability, portability, fungibility. We think that bitcoin matches or beats gold across the board on all of those categories" "It's actually not scarce, it's fixed. You can send it around like an email. It's a lot harder to do that with a bar of gold" "The marketcap of bitcoin right now is $300 billion. The market cap of gold is $6 trillion." "We've been saying this since the market cap of bitcoin was $1 billion. We're 300x more correct today and we think theres a chance we'll be 20x more correct from here on out"
0:45

.Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss explaining their gold 2.0 thesis in 2017 when bitcoin was $17k "Whatever your reasons for investing in gold, whether is scarcity, durability, portability, fungibility. We think that bitcoin matches or beats gold across the board on all of those categories" "It's actually not scarce, it's fixed. You can send it around like an email. It's a lot harder to do that with a bar of gold" "The marketcap of bitcoin right now is $300 billion. The market cap of gold is $6 trillion." "We've been saying this since the market cap of bitcoin was $1 billion. We're 300x more correct today and we think theres a chance we'll be 20x more correct from here on out"

Jeremy

24,493 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce