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Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL820,947 subscribers

CIO & Founder @MNFund_ and @MNCapital_vc | Host of @new_era_finance | Macro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading | Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast

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Good vibes only with OKX.

Good vibes only with OKX.

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Tom Lee thinks 2027 could deliver "the biggest stock market gains in our lifetime." Not a vibe. He walked me through the actual mechanism: Right now the market punishes every company spending on AI — the capex shows up as cost, not return. His call is that this flips. "2027 is my best guess is the year. Corporate profit margins dramatically expand because of AI." He uses his own firm as the proof: "we use a lot of AI and bots, and we're growing without having to hire people." When your highest cost is people, and your revenue still climbs, that's margin expansion. Then the second leg: "AI, if it's productive, is disinflationary." Falling costs mean central banks can ease. Dovish policy plus real profit growth is how you get higher earnings and higher multiples at the same time. That's his call, not mine — but I like that it's mechanical, not hopeful. Right now the market is pricing AI as an expense. He's arguing 2027 is when it shows up as profit.

Tom Lee thinks 2027 could deliver "the biggest stock market gains in our lifetime." Not a vibe. He walked me through the actual mechanism: Right now the market punishes every company spending on AI — the capex shows up as cost, not return. His call is that this flips. "2027 is my best guess is the year. Corporate profit margins dramatically expand because of AI." He uses his own firm as the proof: "we use a lot of AI and bots, and we're growing without having to hire people." When your highest cost is people, and your revenue still climbs, that's margin expansion. Then the second leg: "AI, if it's productive, is disinflationary." Falling costs mean central banks can ease. Dovish policy plus real profit growth is how you get higher earnings and higher multiples at the same time. That's his call, not mine — but I like that it's mechanical, not hopeful. Right now the market is pricing AI as an expense. He's arguing 2027 is when it shows up as profit.

38,986 次观看

I'm very proud to announce that I'll be a speaker at Chainlink's event SmartCon in New York during New York Blockchain Week! I've never been to the conference or New York, and I'm really looking forward to this trip. Shall we host another episode with Sergey Nazarov on New Era Finance Podcast?

I'm very proud to announce that I'll be a speaker at Chainlink's event SmartCon in New York during New York Blockchain Week! I've never been to the conference or New York, and I'm really looking forward to this trip. Shall we host another episode with Sergey Nazarov on New Era Finance Podcast?

37,732 次观看

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Edward Dowd thinks the AI bubble isn't about to burst. He thinks it already started, and most people are watching the wrong indicators. We recorded the evening NVIDIA reported earnings. He'd already moved on to what comes after. Ed ran money on Wall Street at BlackRock. His argument is mechanical, not emotional: "Because we've delayed the reckoning, there's that much more leverage in the system. The unwind will be faster than it was in the dot-com bubble." Every crisis we postponed added leverage. Now it all unwinds at once, and faster than 2000. We cover: - The three cracks he's watching: the semiconductor sell-off, the slowdown in AI adoption, and credit markets showing stress for the first time - Why OpenAI and Anthropic's valuations need to keep rising just to keep financing themselves - Why the power grid, not capital, may be the real ceiling on the AI build-out - Why he says the average American is already in a recession that just hasn't been declared - What he'd actually own right now Thanks to OKX for being the sponsor of today’s show. Make sure to use the 8% deposit bonus while you still can. Timestamps: 00:40 - Why The Bubble Is Already Bursting 03:09 - Bitcoin's Next Move 05:49 - When Policy Hits Crypto 09:09 - The Oil Signal Nobody's Watching 11:53 - The Reckoning We Delayed 15:05 - Cracks In Private Credit 18:04 - Echoes Of 1929 29:49 - How Empires End 31:52 - The Real Estate Time Bomb 33:09 - The Housing Domino 36:51 - China's Slow-Motion Crisis 42:49 - What He'd Own Right Now 47:25 - Where Gold Goes From Here 52:30 - Cash vs Inflation: The Real Trade-Off 56:26 - Sizing Up The Trade Edward Dowd

Michaël van de Poppe

216,083 次观看 • 8 天前

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"Once you're in this system, you can check in, but you can't leave." Francis Hunt (Francis Hunt - The Market Sniper, CMT (MBA)) has a name for how the modern financial system works: Hotel California debt. A system built so it can only expand, never contract, and every exit door leads back inside. The mechanism he walked me through explains the thing confusing everyone right now: why markets keep climbing while the fundamentals scream otherwise. It's not strength. It's the trap doing what traps do. We cover: - The long-term debt cycle, and why this one can't resolve quietly - The Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve: systems fail slowly, then all at once - The precedent nobody studied: Britain's 2022 pension crisis, where a slow leak became a bond market crash in days - Forced sellers, collapsing prices, and why only cash buyers win that moment - Why most investors are positioned for a world that's about to change under their feet - Gold vs #Bitcoin as the exits from the hotel Thanks to OKX for being the sponsor of the show. Make sure to check their deposit bonus, this ends at August 31st. Timestamps: 00:00 - The Long-Term Debt Cycle 02:52 - Hotel California Debt 07:14 - Why Markets Keep Rising 12:12 - Rates Are Spiking 15:21 - The Devaluation Chart 19:38 - Gold vs Bitcoin 24:19 - Trapped By Design 25:41 - The Market Cap Illusion 28:35 - Financial Purgatory 30:19 - Japan's Trap 32:12 - The End Of Gold-Backed Money 38:59 - Why Gold Was Suppressed 39:35 - Correction Of Distortions 41:31 - Sovereignty Over Your Assets 42:41 - What's Next For Gold

Michaël van de Poppe

157,716 次观看 • 15 天前

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"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant

Michaël van de Poppe

530,624 次观看 • 2 个月前

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Ben Goertzel told me two years. Emad Mostaque puts a sharper number on it: 800 days. Emad built Stable Diffusion: he put AI image generation in the hands of millions. Now he's warning about what he helped start: "In crypto it's not your keys, not your crypto. And with AI, it's not your models, not your mind." His argument goes further than jobs. Within a couple of years, he says, the value of human cognitive labor goes to zero. And while that happens, governments move in with licenses, KYC and surveillance to control who gets access to the most powerful models. The people who own their own AI stay sovereign. Everyone else rents their mind from a platform. We cover: - The 800-day timeline, and why most people aren't ready - Why you'll soon need a license just to use frontier AI - Why an open-source model you run yourself is the only real form of sovereignty - Digital feudalism: what happens if five companies own all the intelligence - Why owning your models could become as important as owning your Bitcoin keys Thanks for OKX for being our sponsor of this episode. Timestamps: 00:00 - The 800-Day Countdown 03:16 - What AI Breaks First 06:01 - Not Your Models, Not Your Mind 16:53 - The License You'll Need To Use AI 24:05 - The Ethics Nobody Agrees On 27:30 - The Jobs That Don't Survive 32:33 - When Cognitive Labor Goes To Zero 39:47 - Investing In A World That Thinks 51:44 - Escaping Digital Feudalism 55:41 - What To Do Differently Tomorrow Stability AI Intelligent Internet

Michaël van de Poppe

158,035 次观看 • 22 天前

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"They are not going to be able to raise rates." Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) ran capital at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers as CIO. 30 years on Wall Street. Built one of the first volatility-arbitrage frameworks for systematic hedge funds. Managed billions through three crises, never had a thesis-driven blow-up year. "Interest payments on US debt are now bigger than what we spend on defense. Over a trillion dollars a year. This is what Bitcoin was made for." We cover: — Why the Fed is mathematically trapped and how the trillion-dollar interest math forces every policy decision from here — Why "bubble talk" is intellectually lazy: PE goes UP in bubbles, not down, and right now PE is contracting while earnings grow 27% — The AI-agents-eat-tokens thesis: why agentic AI doesn't care about dollars and what that means for compute-backed assets — Why belief is harder than fundamentals: fundamentals come and go, belief systems don't, and which belief is breaking in 2026 — The Bitcoin call no other macro guy on Wall Street will make publicly: new all-time highs before year-end — Why most hedge funds will underperform Bitcoin this cycle and the structural reason it has nothing to do with crypto — The single chart that made Jordi go from skeptic to allocator and why it hasn't reversed — What the 2020-2026 monetary regime actually was, named correctly for the first time Thanks to Jordi for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:42 - Bitcoin Lagging 03:16 - AI Investment 07:14 - Price vs Narrative 12:15 - Market Dynamics 21:28 - AI Trading 25:24 - AI Democratizes Wealth 36:26 - Crypto Transition 39:40 - Elliott Waves 44:08 - Banana Zone 49:37 - Fundamentals vs Technicals 55:14 - Ethereum Future

Michaël van de Poppe

651,475 次观看 • 3 个月前

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Ben Goertzel has spent 50 years working on AGI. He coined the term. He's building it right now. His (Ben Goertzel) message to me was uncomfortably simple: you have about two years before AI starts changing everything, your job included. "Once you have a human level thinking machine, it will pretty soon be able to take on all the economic activity people do." And the part nobody's pricing in: the interim period. The stretch where AI is good enough to take your job, but the system isn't ready to hand you anything back. No safety net built for it. No playbook. We cover: - Why the entire US economy is now one giant bet on AI taking over, and what happens if that bet fails - The interim period: mass displacement before mass abundance - Why he says UBI becomes unavoidable - Why blockchain is the one technology that keeps this future out of the hands of a few tech giants - What machines improving themselves actually looks like, from someone building it The biggest transition in human history, explained by one of the people causing it. Thanks to our sponsor for sponsoring todays episode. Make sure to use their 8% deposit bonus in the comment tweet. Timestamps: 01:00 - Are We Really Two Years Away? 09:07 - The Curve That Changes Everything 14:28 - The Singularity Explained 16:48 - When AI Takes Your Job 24:55 - The Ethics Nobody's Ready For 32:02 - Decentralized vs Centralized AI 45:47 - The Rise Of AI Agents 52:13 - Why Centralized AI Is Dangerous 57:01 - The Fight To Decentralize 1:03:11 - Your Job In An AI World

Michaël van de Poppe

160,777 次观看 • 29 天前

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"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes." Lawrence Lepard (Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world") wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K. His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180." We cover: - Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses" - Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit - Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance" - The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets - Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade - The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it - "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted. Thanks to Lawrence for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks for OKX Dutch for being our partner for the show. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View 10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy 20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold 24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off? 29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve 32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent 40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money 43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality? 47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises 55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us

Michaël van de Poppe

242,613 次观看 • 1 个月前

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"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid

Michaël van de Poppe

276,556 次观看 • 2 个月前

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"AI agents will hold more crypto than humans within a decade." Charles Hoskinson (Charles Hoskinson) studied math, dropped out, built one of the only blockchains designed by peer-reviewed research. He co-founded Ethereum, walked away over how it was run, and built Cardano to do it differently. The man who has argued with everyone in this industry now thinks the biggest user of crypto won't be people at all. "Humans are a rounding error in the system we're building. AI agents don't sleep, don't panic-sell, and don't care about price. They transact in tokens because that's the only thing they can actually use." We cover: - Why AI agents (not humans) become the dominant on-chain actors, and what that does to every token model - The infrastructure that has to exist before agents can transact safely at scale - Why most current blockchains can't handle machine-speed transactions - Where Cardano's research-first approach fits in a world of autonomous agents - The identity problem: how do you tell a human from an agent on-chain, and why it matters - Why he's bullish on the technology but blunt about the timeline - What he thinks the rest of the industry is getting wrong about AI + crypto - The one thing that has to happen for any of this to be real Thanks to Charles for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Intro 01:30 - Why AI Agents Change Everything 06:30 - Humans as a Rounding Error 12:00 - The Infrastructure Gap 18:30 - Identity: Human vs Agent On-Chain 24:30 - Where Cardano Fits 30:00 - What The Industry Gets Wrong 34:00 - The Timeline Nobody Wants To Hear

Michaël van de Poppe

293,430 次观看 • 3 个月前

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"The short term price of Bitcoin is now controlled by Wall Street. And they want your Bitcoin." Simon Dixon (Simon Dixon) spent a decade watching the same institutions that dismissed Bitcoin quietly move to capture it. He came on to explain the plan for the coins you're holding and the one move they can't stop. "They don't want you to self custody it. They want you to borrow against it. They want you to trade perpetual futures." His framework is sovereign vs subordinate: either you hold Bitcoin you can access with no permission from a bank or a broker, or you're in debt to the system for everything you own. We cover: - Why Wall Street now controls Bitcoin's short-term price and what they actually want with your coins - How Bitcoin gets captured: custodians, ETFs, lending products - The unrealized gains tax and how it's used to strip assets - Why he says you cannot vote your way out of this - Where you actually sit on the sovereign vs subordinate spectrum - Why self custody is the one thing they can't touch Thanks to Simon for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX Dutch for sponsoring this week’s episode of New Era Finance. Make sure to use their 8% Deposit bonus in the comment tweet! Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:33 - Michael Saylor and the Financial Industrial Complex 05:23 - How Wall Street Took Control of Bitcoin 11:14 - Tokenization and Control in the Financial System 16:58 - Unrealized Gains Tax and Asset Stripping 36:50 - Boycotting the FIC and Building Sovereignty 49:44 - Bitcoin: Centralization vs Decentralization 57:46 - The Path to Sovereignty

Michaël van de Poppe

168,022 次观看 • 1 个月前

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Everyone's watching #Bitcoin and #altcoins bleed and calling crypto dead. Stani Kulechov looked at what actually happened and saw the opposite: "DeFi is this machinery that just keeps working in the background, regardless of market cycles." Stani Kulechov (Stani) is the founder of Aave and one of the people who built decentralized finance into what it is today. He joined me to explain why, while everyone was distracted, DeFi quietly grew up: "We went from DeFi is experimentation, to DeFi protocols are the future, to DeFi protocols are making revenue. We did almost 150 million in net revenue." We cover: - Why DeFi survived the crash: hundreds of millions in liquidations processed transparently, in minutes, while the protocols kept generating revenue - Why in five years we won't call it DeFi anymore; "it's going to be on-chain finance, or just finance" - When banks start using DeFi themselves, and why every new entry point deepens liquidity for everyone - Why #Ethereum is lagging: the L2 scaling choice, the trilemma, and the privacy layer it still needs before institutions arrive - Why governments have no incentive to protect your privacy, "it helps them stay in control" - Financing abundance: how tokenizing real-world assets could fund energy, compute and robotics the way JP Morgan once funded the railroads Thanks to Stani for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX for being today's sponsor of the show. Make sure to use their €400 Deposit Bonus with the link in the comment tweet. Timestamps: 00:00 - Current State of DeFi 03:30 - DeFi's Evolution 09:03 - The Future of On-Chain Finance 12:37 - Aave V4 16:15 - Monad and High Throughput Solutions 17:54 - Ethereum's Role 21:22 - Privacy in Finance 23:42 - The Aave App 26:31 - Differentiating Aave 28:35 - Looking Ahead 30:48 - The Importance of RWAs in Aave's Strategy 31:59 - A Vision for the Future of Finance

Michaël van de Poppe

108,344 次观看 • 1 个月前

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Everyone's blaming Michael Saylor for this drawdown. Jamie Coutts looked at the data and came to a different conclusion: "#Bitcoin didn't top because of MicroStrategy." Jamie Coutts (Jamie Coutts CMT) is chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and one of the most rigorous liquidity researchers in the space. He joined me to explain the one force that actually drives this market: "Global liquidity is the main driver of all asset prices." We cover: - Why we're really in a bear market — a lack of demand, not one company: long-term holders selling peaked in Q3 last year, a classic cycle-top signal - His honest miss: his cycle risk model flagged the top, but he read it as a 30-40% correction — "it ended up being the cycle top" - Where the liquidity actually went: AI hyperscalers cutting buybacks and issuing debt, the SpaceX listing, and "the granddaddy of all" — record US government issuance - The debasement math: debt growing faster than liquidity, why "something's got to give," and why more liquidity has to enter this year or next - His warning: it often requires things to get worse before they get better - The 12-month playbook: tokenization and AI agents as the two demand drivers, and why supply discipline meeting real demand would be a first for crypto Thanks to Jamie for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX for being today's sponsor of the show. Make sure to use their 8% Deposit bonus with the link in the comment tweet. Timestamps: 00:45 - Michael Saylor's Impact on Bitcoin 02:47 - Global Liquidity, Debt and Interest Rates 09:02 - Bitcoin, AI and the Agentic Era 14:49 - Navigating Economic Uncertainty 30:37 - The Future of Crypto: Supply and Demand 39:00 - Bitcoin, Altcoins and Market Risk 46:33 - NEAR Protocol and Interoperability 52:05 - Zcash and Privacy Coins 54:55 - Market Momentum and Investment Strategy

Michaël van de Poppe

107,207 次观看 • 1 个月前

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"As you realized, there was no money lost. And this is by design." Kostas Chalkias (Kostas Kryptos) is co-founder and Chief Cryptographer of Mysten Labs, the team behind Sui. When the network halted, he was in the war room. This is his breakdown of what actually happened. "The ideal option is to halt, compared to just losing money if something else happens." We cover: — Why halting the network was a deliberate design choice, not a failure — What was really going on behind the scenes while crypto Twitter panicked — The global war room: 50+ people across Europe and the US working through the night — Why a decentralized network recovers differently than one company flipping a switch — "Move fast and break things", why the Facebook motto is exactly wrong for money — Why Kostas believes most other blockchains wouldn't have recovered in days — Where the line sits between an honest edge case and a broken system — What the outage proved about how Sui is actually built Thanks to Kostas for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 — Intro 00:43 — What Happened During The Outage 03:45 — Why Halting Was The Right Call 05:30 — Inside The War Room 08:00 — Why Decentralized Recovery Takes Longer 11:00 — The Lessons That Made Sui Stronger 14:30 — Why AI Agents Are The Real Users Of Crypto 19:00 — Free Stablecoin Payments vs Bank Fees 23:00 — Own And Monetize Your Own Data 27:00 — Why A Fast Layer-1 Changes Everything

Michaël van de Poppe

172,880 次观看 • 2 个月前