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Bitcoin risk is misunderstood The Basel III regulatory risk framework should reward transparency and observability, not punish it. My presentation at Strategy World yesterday focused on Basel III Risk weightings & an institutional framework for Digital Credit & Bitcoin

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Jeff Walton

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32,951 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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I’ve been a Balance Sheet Volatility manager my entire career (12+ years). Below is my presentation at Risk World yesterday. Focused on explaining the similarities of insurance balance sheet risk management to Bitcoin balance sheet risk management. The primary difference: Bitcoin data is more observable, easily accessible, and calculable in real time. This is a feature, not a bug. And btw, there were only about 12 people in the seats, and 2 were my own colleagues. 0:21–0:46 Background in reinsurance and risk 0:46–1:13 How this work changed his perspective on risk 1:13–1:37 Bitcoin as digital capital 1:57–2:42 Insurance, reinsurance, and volatility reduction 6:54–8:08 Turning Bitcoin volatility into a credit instrument 13:50–15:38 Risk modeling, experience rating, and Monte Carlo analysis 17:21–20:06 Monetary debasement and digital credit 20:06–24:22 Digital credit vs. catastrophe bonds
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I’ve been a Balance Sheet Volatility manager my entire career (12+ years). Below is my presentation at Risk World yesterday. Focused on explaining the similarities of insurance balance sheet risk management to Bitcoin balance sheet risk management. The primary difference: Bitcoin data is more observable, easily accessible, and calculable in real time. This is a feature, not a bug. And btw, there were only about 12 people in the seats, and 2 were my own colleagues. 0:21–0:46 Background in reinsurance and risk 0:46–1:13 How this work changed his perspective on risk 1:13–1:37 Bitcoin as digital capital 1:57–2:42 Insurance, reinsurance, and volatility reduction 6:54–8:08 Turning Bitcoin volatility into a credit instrument 13:50–15:38 Risk modeling, experience rating, and Monte Carlo analysis 17:21–20:06 Monetary debasement and digital credit 20:06–24:22 Digital credit vs. catastrophe bonds

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My Keynote "The Digital Transformation of Risk" at Bitcoin Asia 2025 in Hong Kong 0:00 - Intro 0:36 - The Story of Risk 6:22 - Bitcoin Backed Risk, Pioneered by Strategy & Michael Saylor 9:52 - Quantifying the risk 13:43 - The Biggest Story in all of Finance 15:37 - Risk is Evolving, humanity needs to adapt EM₿RACE THE RISK
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My Keynote "The Digital Transformation of Risk" at Bitcoin Asia 2025 in Hong Kong 0:00 - Intro 0:36 - The Story of Risk 6:22 - Bitcoin Backed Risk, Pioneered by Strategy & Michael Saylor 9:52 - Quantifying the risk 13:43 - The Biggest Story in all of Finance 15:37 - Risk is Evolving, humanity needs to adapt EM₿RACE THE RISK

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Digital credit is only a year old, which makes clear explanations & institutional risk framing essential. Nate Geraci asked the tough questions on digital credit, $SATA, $ASST, the $BTC drawdown & more. My full conversation on Crypto Prime. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Intro: Matt Cole on Strive and SATA 01:09 Strive’s shift into structured finance 02:44 ASST vs. SATA: amplified Bitcoin exposure vs. digital credit 07:28 What SATA is and how the preferred equity works 10:12 Why Strive calls SATA “digital credit” 13:32 Credit risk, Bitcoin drawdowns, and Strive’s reserves 17:46 Bitcoin return scenarios and SATA dividend sustainability 20:25 Bitcoin as collateral vs. cash-flowing assets 25:08 Does a 13% dividend mean higher risk? 29:47 How digital credit should be marketed 34:30 SATA vs. Strategy’s Stretch 36:25 Strategy, Michael Saylor, and Bitcoin’s market narrative 41:04 Why Bitcoin has drawn down 43:02 AI, IPOs, and capital flowing away from Bitcoin 43:44 OG Bitcoin holder selling pressure 47:20 What could bring Bitcoin momentum back 50:43 Closing thoughts
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Digital credit is only a year old, which makes clear explanations & institutional risk framing essential. Nate Geraci asked the tough questions on digital credit, $SATA, $ASST, the $BTC drawdown & more. My full conversation on Crypto Prime. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Intro: Matt Cole on Strive and SATA 01:09 Strive’s shift into structured finance 02:44 ASST vs. SATA: amplified Bitcoin exposure vs. digital credit 07:28 What SATA is and how the preferred equity works 10:12 Why Strive calls SATA “digital credit” 13:32 Credit risk, Bitcoin drawdowns, and Strive’s reserves 17:46 Bitcoin return scenarios and SATA dividend sustainability 20:25 Bitcoin as collateral vs. cash-flowing assets 25:08 Does a 13% dividend mean higher risk? 29:47 How digital credit should be marketed 34:30 SATA vs. Strategy’s Stretch 36:25 Strategy, Michael Saylor, and Bitcoin’s market narrative 41:04 Why Bitcoin has drawn down 43:02 AI, IPOs, and capital flowing away from Bitcoin 43:44 OG Bitcoin holder selling pressure 47:20 What could bring Bitcoin momentum back 50:43 Closing thoughts

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Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Today's guest is Garrett Johnston, Senior Vice President at Marsh. We discuss his career in insurance, risk based capital, Digital Credit in a bear market, talking to retail versus institutions, institutional grade Digital Credit, and more. Here's my conversation with Garrett Johnston. 0:00 - Intro 0:10 - Garrett’s career in insurance 6:12 - How institutions evaluate risk 18:00 - What is Risk Based Capital? 25:13 - What would be concerning to an institution? 37:05 - Par, peg, and de-peg 40:14 - Digital Credit in a bear market 45:14 - How do Bitcoin Treasury company executives talk to retail vs institutions? 54:00 - Why haven’t Bitcoin Treasury executives been more public in their conviction? 1:03:19 - Institutional Grade Digital Credit
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“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.
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“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

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