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🚨Bitcoin’s Catastrophic Problem NO ONE Is Talking About! Bitcoin produces 144 blocks per day. Fees are paid per block, every ~10 minutes. Yesterday, Bitcoin Layer-1 fees totaled ~2.6 BTC for the entire day. (Approx. $180K) That works out to ~0.018 $BTC per block. Meanwhile, the real cost to secure...

439,930 次观看 • 5 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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"I used to be a bitcoiner. The transition to a new store of value only happens once every 3,000 years. That's the main prize -- just focus on that. But [security] is the criteria that ultimately convinced me to flip from Bitcoin to ETH." "I have a higher degree of certainty that Ethereum will be around longer [than Bitcoin]. The reason for that is because Bitcoin relies on proof-of-work, which is less efficient than proof-of-stake and doesn't scale with the value of the network. And as the block subsidy of Bitcoin halves every four years, it is increasingly becoming more and more reliant on transaction fees to fund the security budget paid to miners." "If you look at [Bitcoin's] security budget right now, about 0.6% of revenue to miners is transaction fees... The problem with that is if Bitcoin becomes 'digital gold', flips gold, and becomes a $30 trillion asset, but it only costs $10-20 billion to attack it, that's too asymmetric." "You want the security budget to scale with the market cap, similar to how countries spend a % of their GDP on defense. The more valuable something is, the more you need to spend to protect it." "Ethereum, with the Merge, migrated to proof-of-stake, which is fundamentally more secure because it's less reliant on transaction fees and it scales with the value of the network. If 1/3rd of ETH is staked and then you need 1/3rd of those ETH to censor the network, you're looking at roughly 10% of the total market cap as the cost to attack the network." "So if Ethereum flips Bitcoin and gold and becomes a $30 trillion asset, it'll cost ~$3 trillion to attack the Ethereum network versus Bitcoin at like $10 billion." "The other aspect here is that as AI hyperscalers invest more and more in AI, proof-of-work becomes increasingly vulnerable because the cost to attack the Bitcoin network is starting to look close to the quarterly CapEx these hyperscalers are spending on their data centers." Full interview on Bankless with Vivek Raman discussing the new Etherealize "Productive Money" report below.

Michael McGuiness

120,286 次观看 • 2 个月前

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Adam Livingston

14,385 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 MICHAEL SAYLOR IS ABOUT TO SELL BITCOIN 🚨 And it's much worse for the market than you think. Let me explain Saylor built the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine in corporate history The model was simple: 1. Raise capital 2. Buy BTC 3. Reinvest returns 4. Repeat Every dip was a buy. Every week a new purchase. 5 years straight BUT Then Q1 2026 happened BTC dropped from 87k to 68k in three months. Strategy posted a $12.54B loss But even that's not the real problem Here's the real problem To fund the machine, Saylor issued STRC - preferred stock paying investors 11.5% annual dividend $8.5 billion raised - all of it went into BTC The catch - dividends don't stop when Bitcoin drops Strategy now owes investors $1.2 billion every single year. Regardless of price So yesterday Saylor admitted it publicly The man who screamed "never sell your Bitcoin" on every podcast - may now sell Bitcoin In isolation, selling to cover dividends isn't catastrophic But the narrative just broke And once the narrative breaks, the damage is structural Here's how it plays out Every time BTC drops and stays low - Strategy sells more BTC to cover the $1.2B obligation Every sale pushes price down Lower price means more BTC needed to cover the same obligation Which means more and more selling Strategy holds 818,000 BTC - 3.9% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist At current prices, covering annual dividends alone requires selling roughly 15,500 BTC per year That's not a number the market quietly absorbs For 5 years Saylor was the floor under every dip Now he's potentially the ceiling June 8 - shareholder vote on dividends. Watch that date BTC doesn't like forced sellers. It never has NOTIFS ON!

NoName

57,688 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 次观看 • 2 个月前

Debunking the Flat Bitcoin Theory 🧵 In the early days of Bitcoin (2009-2014) there was a massive amount of experimentation and innovation on bitcoin The first NFTs and cryptoart started on Bitcoin The first memecoins started on Bitcoin The first stablecoins and real world assets started on Bitcoin The first dapps started on Bitcoin The first DEX started on Bitcoin The first on-chain governance started on Bitcoin The first crypto degens were playing Satoshi Dice on Bitcoin But then the OP_RETURN wars happened and people like Luke Dashjr vilified innovation and scared builders away resulting in a long period of stagnation (2015-2023) This period of stagnation gave birth to the Flat Bitcoin Theory which infected the minds of nearly everyone The Flat Bitcoin Theory is a belief held by "Flat Bitcoiners" who think that Bitcoin is a boring blockchain that is not capable of the innovative use cases that we see on alt L1s like Ethereum or Solana But thankfully in January 2023 Casey burst onto the scene with the ordinals protocol and one by one people have been waking up from this lie and realizing that Bitcoin is actually multidimensional and capable of everything you could possibly imagine and more Since then Bitcoin has experienced a renaissance of innovation with a new set of builders picking up where the set of OG builders left off Jeremy Lin | 🔄 DotSwap (On Nexus) from @dot_swap has defied all FUD and delivered a trustless liquidity pool style experience on Bitcoin L1 for Runes with zero MEV Stan from Sats Terminal has built an advanced order routing and aggregation engine for Runes trading on Bitcoin L1 Scott 🟠 from radFi has revived the Runes trenches with a token launchpad on Bitcoin L1 that thousands of people use every day Robin | Liquidium from Liquidium | Bitcoin Loans built a Runes and Ordinals lending protocol that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars of volume which proves that DeFi can thrive on Bitcoin L1 domo and Binari from BRC 2.0 and Tagga from Alkanes have been relentlessly pursing a vision for general purpose smart contracts on Bitcoin L1 TO from Pizza Pets built a fully on-chain multiplayer game directly on Bitcoin L1 Ken Liao from built a Bitcoin wallet for interacting with Bitcoin L1 dapps that is so sleek that it puts Ethereum's flagship wallet MetaMask to shame danny huuep from OnChainMonkey® pioneered a new way to store an entire 10K PFP collection on Bitcoin for only $23 that is now widely adopted by hundreds of other Ordinals collections SergeSats has formed the Bitcoin Art Society to preserve Bitcoin's on-chain culture for future generation has dedicated months of his life to ensuring that once a year there is a place where bitcoin builders can gather to celebrate experimentation on bitcoin at Bitcoin Summit Massive decentralized communities like the $DOG Army and Bitcoin Puppets have rallied together to support all of these innovations and champion the Bitcoin ecosystem Do not ever let anyone tell you that Bitcoin is not capable of something or that you must only use Bitcoin in a certain way The Bitcoin network is more secure and robust longterm when it is winning at developer mindshare and blocks are filled with a diverse set of on-chain activity It is up to us, the Ordinals, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem to be stewards of this technology now so go build the most badass applications possible and never stop fighting for innovation on Bitcoin!

Leonidas 🧡 $DOG

62,894 次观看 • 10 个月前

Michael Saylor's end game is to buy $3 trillion worth of #Bitcoin! 👀 Microstrategy could, CONSERVATIVELY, own approximately 16% of the total Bitcoin Supply or 3,439,002 Bitcoin!! For those that think this is a MOONBOI projection, listen to the video clip below, VERY CLOSELY, and you will hear him say that he plans on buying $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin 🤯 Even if Saylor buys $3 trillion worth of Bitcoin, at an average price of $1 million per coin, he would be able to buy 3,000,000 Bitcoin! Check my math! This would CONSERVATIVELY bring his total Bitcoin holdings to 3,444,262, or 16% of the total Bitcoin Supply!! Saylor could single handedly jack the price of Bitcoin to $1 million per coin and Samson Mow's Omega candle could be coming in 2025. What going to happen when Nation States, Google, Amazon, Facebook and billions of people complement Saylor's $3 trillion purchase? What is bigger than an omega candle? I asked GROK and it doesn't even know! 😂 I think we should name it the ♾️ candle. This would be representative of Wicked's Stock to Fomo model (see graphic below) and his post: Saylor has said he is going to double his $42 Billion Bitcoin investment at least 4 times and here is how this could lead to him acquiring more than 4 million Bitcoin in 2025: Q1 2025 - Raise $84 Billion to buy 700,000 Bitcoin at average price of $120k/Bitcoin. Q2 2025 - Raise $168 Billion to buy 988,235 Bitcoin at average price of $170k/Bitcoin Q3 2025 - Raise $336 Billion to buy 1,050,000 Bitcoin at average price of $320k/Bitcoin Q4 2025 - Raise $672 Billion to buy 1,680,000 Bitcoin at average price of $400k/Bitcoin In one year there is the possibility that he could REALISTICALLY buy 4,418,235 Bitcoin!! I say "realistically" because the demand for Saylor's $42 Billion equity raise was so great that he is going to be able to use it all up in 3-4 months instead of the projected 3 years!!🤯 This would bring their current Bitcoin holdings of 444,262 Bitcoin to 4,857,237!!!! Or 23% of all Bitcoin!! Calculations are based on our post below: We are closer to $1 million Bitcoin than you think. I believe we will get to this price sooner than Wicked 's projected date of 4/4/2030. I agree with Samson that we get to $1 million per coin by the end of 2025! Hold on to your hat, because we are about to experience exponential, LIFTOFF. To understand exponential growth, envision yourself holding two very powerful magnets. As you start to bring the two magnets together, it gets harder to hold them apart and all of a sudden, BAM, they clap together! This is what we are about to experience, a SUDDEN BAM, in the price of Bitcoin as adoption goes from <1% to 10% in a very short time frame. Now you may better understand why Saylor is frantically, but intelligently, trying to buy $42 Billion of Bitcoin. As an engineer he understands what exponential demand will cause to the price of a finite commodity. Saylor has been on record as saying that "he will be buying the top forever." Don't ever underestimate an astro/aeronautical MIT engineer.

Satoshi’s Journal

280,298 次观看 • 1 年前