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BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting...

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George Noble

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133,893 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER
1:25

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER

George Noble

11,852 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Kevin Warsh killed the debasement trade and gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all paying the price "The crypto market cheered when Trump picked a Bitcoin-friendly Fed chair. Then he scrapped the rate cuts and basically debased the bull case for Bitcoin, but more specifically for gold and silver" "The assets people were buying to hedge against debasement are no longer in favor. And that is gold and silver. And at least for narrative purposes we would like to think Bitcoin was part of that trade" "That is not how the market has been pricing it. If the debasement trade narrative completely disappears that could be problematic for markets in general"
1:55

Kevin Warsh killed the debasement trade and gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all paying the price "The crypto market cheered when Trump picked a Bitcoin-friendly Fed chair. Then he scrapped the rate cuts and basically debased the bull case for Bitcoin, but more specifically for gold and silver" "The assets people were buying to hedge against debasement are no longer in favor. And that is gold and silver. And at least for narrative purposes we would like to think Bitcoin was part of that trade" "That is not how the market has been pricing it. If the debasement trade narrative completely disappears that could be problematic for markets in general"

The Wolf Of All Streets

61,992 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Cathie Wood Cathie Wood of ARK Invest: Bitcoin was declining relative to gold. It now appears to be bottoming. Gold itself is declining. She is staying bullish. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart she presented on July 2 shows the ratio has held at a floor while gold moved lower. Wood reads this as the start of a resumption of the "volatile but broad uptrend" visible on the long-term chart. The macro context behind the call: in a deflationary tech regime with falling rates, Bitcoin benefits as a risk-on digital store of value. The rotation from gold to Bitcoin is consistent with the broader ARK thesis on financial innovation. Michael Saylor Michael Saylor has made the structural case for Bitcoin over gold more forcefully than anyone - argues Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital properties make it the superior store of value over any multi-year horizon. Bitcoin, gold, and the deflationary thesis: Source: ARK Invest In the Know -
0:31

Cathie Wood Cathie Wood of ARK Invest: Bitcoin was declining relative to gold. It now appears to be bottoming. Gold itself is declining. She is staying bullish. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart she presented on July 2 shows the ratio has held at a floor while gold moved lower. Wood reads this as the start of a resumption of the "volatile but broad uptrend" visible on the long-term chart. The macro context behind the call: in a deflationary tech regime with falling rates, Bitcoin benefits as a risk-on digital store of value. The rotation from gold to Bitcoin is consistent with the broader ARK thesis on financial innovation. Michael Saylor Michael Saylor has made the structural case for Bitcoin over gold more forcefully than anyone - argues Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital properties make it the superior store of value over any multi-year horizon. Bitcoin, gold, and the deflationary thesis: Source: ARK Invest In the Know -

Podcast Alpha

17,024 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.
0:57

Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.

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Alessandro Ottaviani

16,495 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."
1:15

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."

Sense Receptor

136,648 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

🚨 I SOLD ALL MY GOLD & SILVER Not because I turned bearish on them, but because I see a bigger opportunity in $BTC. Every major liquidity cycle has followed a familiar path: 2018 → Liquidity expanded → Bitcoin surged 2022 → Liquidity expanded → Bitcoin surged 2026 → The same conditions are starting to emerge again. Gold is great for preserving wealth. Bitcoin is where expanding global liquidity has historically delivered the biggest upside. I’m positioning before the crowd catches on. For over a decade, I’ve accurately identified major market tops and bottoms. I was among the few who warned about the October peak, and I’ll continue sharing my outlook as the cycle unfolds. If you’re not following yet, now might be the time.
0:35

🚨 I SOLD ALL MY GOLD & SILVER Not because I turned bearish on them, but because I see a bigger opportunity in $BTC. Every major liquidity cycle has followed a familiar path: 2018 → Liquidity expanded → Bitcoin surged 2022 → Liquidity expanded → Bitcoin surged 2026 → The same conditions are starting to emerge again. Gold is great for preserving wealth. Bitcoin is where expanding global liquidity has historically delivered the biggest upside. I’m positioning before the crowd catches on. For over a decade, I’ve accurately identified major market tops and bottoms. I was among the few who warned about the October peak, and I’ll continue sharing my outlook as the cycle unfolds. If you’re not following yet, now might be the time.

Bitcoin Intelligence

11,542 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I sat down with CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes to understand why crypto fell off a cliff while Gold hit $5,000. A new episode of New Era Finance Podcast is live: In my conversation with Michael Howell, we go deep into: – why 2026 will NOT be a strong year for Bitcoin – the liquidity cycle that drives every crypto crash – "95% of people don't own assets; they're impoverished" – why China is secretly driving the gold rally – where to buy Bitcoin (hint: below $80K) A must-watch if you're wondering why your portfolio is bleeding and what comes next. Thanks to our sponsor, OKX Dutch! Get up to €100 in Bitcoin for free by signing up to OKX through the link here:
0:45

I sat down with CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes to understand why crypto fell off a cliff while Gold hit $5,000. A new episode of New Era Finance Podcast is live: In my conversation with Michael Howell, we go deep into: – why 2026 will NOT be a strong year for Bitcoin – the liquidity cycle that drives every crypto crash – "95% of people don't own assets; they're impoverished" – why China is secretly driving the gold rally – where to buy Bitcoin (hint: below $80K) A must-watch if you're wondering why your portfolio is bleeding and what comes next. Thanks to our sponsor, OKX Dutch! Get up to €100 in Bitcoin for free by signing up to OKX through the link here:

Michaël van de Poppe

145,244 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Gold is up around 70% in last year and crypto has done nothing. And somehow this is the most bullish chart we've seen since last cycle. Not because anyone is being blindly bullish. But because we've seen this exact thing play out before, and we just have to look back at what it leads to. Last cycle...QT drains $673B. Fed pivots. Gold runs to ATHs while Bitcoin does nothing. Everyone thought it's gameover for crypto. Then crypto explodes out of no where. Well now, we just finished a $2.43 TRILLION drain. The largest ever. Gold isn't leaving Bitcoin behind, but it is creating the setup for a bitcoin and crypto bull move. One that we've seen before. Intro 00:00 This happened before 1:20 The tariff playbook 2:10 Liquidity injections 4:25 Gold vs. crypto 6:15
10:30

Gold is up around 70% in last year and crypto has done nothing. And somehow this is the most bullish chart we've seen since last cycle. Not because anyone is being blindly bullish. But because we've seen this exact thing play out before, and we just have to look back at what it leads to. Last cycle...QT drains $673B. Fed pivots. Gold runs to ATHs while Bitcoin does nothing. Everyone thought it's gameover for crypto. Then crypto explodes out of no where. Well now, we just finished a $2.43 TRILLION drain. The largest ever. Gold isn't leaving Bitcoin behind, but it is creating the setup for a bitcoin and crypto bull move. One that we've seen before. Intro 00:00 This happened before 1:20 The tariff playbook 2:10 Liquidity injections 4:25 Gold vs. crypto 6:15

Dan Gambardello

62,328 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."
2:02

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."

Sense Receptor

39,191 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

A gold analyst just made the best case for bitcoin I've heard all year. By accident. His whole thesis: "the beauty of gold is it's not used for anything." Send gold to $1,000,000 and nobody gets hurt. Send corn to $1,000 a bushel and people starve. Send oil there and the economy collapses. A reserve asset has to be useless, because money that doubles as something people need to consume punishes everyone the moment it goes up. He's right. He just stopped one step short. Gold still has day jobs. Jewelry, electronics, dentistry. Bitcoin is used for even less. It was built to be money and nothing else. No industrial demand fighting its monetary demand, nothing to melt down, no factory waiting on the supply. Gold is useless enough to be great money. Bitcoin is useless at everything except being money. Same principle, taken to its logical end. The purest reserve asset isn't the one with the fewest uses. It's the one with none.
2:13

A gold analyst just made the best case for bitcoin I've heard all year. By accident. His whole thesis: "the beauty of gold is it's not used for anything." Send gold to $1,000,000 and nobody gets hurt. Send corn to $1,000 a bushel and people starve. Send oil there and the economy collapses. A reserve asset has to be useless, because money that doubles as something people need to consume punishes everyone the moment it goes up. He's right. He just stopped one step short. Gold still has day jobs. Jewelry, electronics, dentistry. Bitcoin is used for even less. It was built to be money and nothing else. No industrial demand fighting its monetary demand, nothing to melt down, no factory waiting on the supply. Gold is useless enough to be great money. Bitcoin is useless at everything except being money. Same principle, taken to its logical end. The purest reserve asset isn't the one with the fewest uses. It's the one with none.

Bitcoin Well

112,597 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

BITCOIN JUST PASSED AN IMPORTANT STRESS TEST Tom Lee says the reason Bitcoin didn’t behave like “digital gold” during the last bout of market turmoil was simple: crypto went through one of the biggest deleveraging events in its history. When leverage unwinds that aggressively, everything gets sold — even assets that are supposed to hedge risk. But that phase may now be behind us. After months of speculation getting flushed out of the system, the market structure is cleaner. And this weekend offered a small but interesting signal: oil spiked on geopolitical tensions… and Bitcoin rallied instead. That’s a different reaction than what we saw during the deleveraging phase. Now Bitcoin is holding above $70K, and the narrative may be shifting back toward what many originally expected -- a scarce asset that can sit alongside gold during periods of global uncertainty. The real question now is whether this was just a short-term bounce... or the start of Bitcoin reasserting its macro role. 📹️: BMNR Bullz
0:56

BITCOIN JUST PASSED AN IMPORTANT STRESS TEST Tom Lee says the reason Bitcoin didn’t behave like “digital gold” during the last bout of market turmoil was simple: crypto went through one of the biggest deleveraging events in its history. When leverage unwinds that aggressively, everything gets sold — even assets that are supposed to hedge risk. But that phase may now be behind us. After months of speculation getting flushed out of the system, the market structure is cleaner. And this weekend offered a small but interesting signal: oil spiked on geopolitical tensions… and Bitcoin rallied instead. That’s a different reaction than what we saw during the deleveraging phase. Now Bitcoin is holding above $70K, and the narrative may be shifting back toward what many originally expected -- a scarce asset that can sit alongside gold during periods of global uncertainty. The real question now is whether this was just a short-term bounce... or the start of Bitcoin reasserting its macro role. 📹️: BMNR Bullz

CryptosRus

35,769 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers
1:22:33

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers

Bankless

42,363 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30
15:55

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30

Dan Gambardello

26,873 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

BREAKING: Scott Bessent just confirmed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is moving forward. "We are proceeding with all deliberate speed." "Things will be durable for the future." The U.S. Treasury Secretary personally committed to building a permanent Bitcoin reserve. Not a short term trade. Not a political stunt. A durable reserve. Built to last generations. The U.S. already holds Bitcoin from seized criminal assets. Now the Treasury is building a formal framework around it. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Zero capital gains proposed. CLARITY Act at the finish line. Every pillar of the crypto regulatory framework being built simultaneously. The most powerful financial institution in the world. Is treating Bitcoin like gold. And gold took 50 years to become a reserve asset. Bitcoin is getting there in five.
0:51

BREAKING: Scott Bessent just confirmed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is moving forward. "We are proceeding with all deliberate speed." "Things will be durable for the future." The U.S. Treasury Secretary personally committed to building a permanent Bitcoin reserve. Not a short term trade. Not a political stunt. A durable reserve. Built to last generations. The U.S. already holds Bitcoin from seized criminal assets. Now the Treasury is building a formal framework around it. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Zero capital gains proposed. CLARITY Act at the finish line. Every pillar of the crypto regulatory framework being built simultaneously. The most powerful financial institution in the world. Is treating Bitcoin like gold. And gold took 50 years to become a reserve asset. Bitcoin is getting there in five.

Crypto Tice

19,574 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin is the apex asset. There isn't a close second place. I charted the 2-year moving average of Bitcoin, gold, and SPY from Jan. 1, 2020 to May 22, 2026. The results are disgusting. Bitcoin 2Y MA: +1,073% Gold 2Y MA: +157% SPY 2Y MA: +118% Bitcoin’s smoothed long-term trend vaporized them. BTC’s cumulative 2Y moving-average return was roughly 6.8x gold’s return and 9.1x SPY’s return. Gold did its job. It protected purchasing power better than most fiat garbage. SPY did what corporate America does, climbed the liquidity escalator while everyone pretended earnings growth wasn’t being embalmed by monetary debasement. But Bitcoin was the actual escape vehicle. Bitcoin volatility is loud. Fiat decay is quiet. The 2-year moving average strips away the noise and shows you the signal: Bitcoin is repricing the world slowly, then violently, then permanently.
0:43

Bitcoin is the apex asset. There isn't a close second place. I charted the 2-year moving average of Bitcoin, gold, and SPY from Jan. 1, 2020 to May 22, 2026. The results are disgusting. Bitcoin 2Y MA: +1,073% Gold 2Y MA: +157% SPY 2Y MA: +118% Bitcoin’s smoothed long-term trend vaporized them. BTC’s cumulative 2Y moving-average return was roughly 6.8x gold’s return and 9.1x SPY’s return. Gold did its job. It protected purchasing power better than most fiat garbage. SPY did what corporate America does, climbed the liquidity escalator while everyone pretended earnings growth wasn’t being embalmed by monetary debasement. But Bitcoin was the actual escape vehicle. Bitcoin volatility is loud. Fiat decay is quiet. The 2-year moving average strips away the noise and shows you the signal: Bitcoin is repricing the world slowly, then violently, then permanently.

Adam Livingston

65,375 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Eric Yeung: 🇨🇳 CHINA'S BRILLIANT MOVE ON GOLD The Gold Shakeup: New Tax Rules ✅ Objective: Concentrate ALL gold liquidity through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). ✅ Before: A messy system where recycled gold avoided VAT, undercutting official channels. ✅ Now: The ONLY way to get VAT-exempt gold is through the SGE. ➡️ Result: Liquidity is being vacuumed out of the OTC market and into the SGE. Trading volume is projected to jump from 60% to 80% of all Chinese gold trade. The Ramification: Squeezing the West ✅ SGE has a ~70% physical withdrawal rate. COMEX is less than 10%. ✅ In 2024, over 1,400 metric tons of gold were physically withdrawn from the SGE. That's roughly the entire reported COMEX vault inventory. ✅ China is inviting central banks (like Cambodia) to store their gold in SGE vaults, building trust and moving the global center of gravity East. The Silver Hammer: Export Controls ✅ Starting Jan 2026, China is imposing export controls (review & quota process) on silver. ✅ This is a de facto ban on shipping silver to the LBMA. ✅ Silver is now a STRATEGIC METAL for China. They are hoarding for their industrial and technological future. The Bottom Line: China is systematically rewiring the global precious metals market. They are centralizing gold liquidity in Shanghai and locking down their silver supply. This will drain physical metal from the West, exposing paper markets and accelerating the East's financial dominance. HT Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 The Sirius Report #Gold #Silver #China #SGE #COMEX #LBMA #Markets #Finance
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Eric Yeung: 🇨🇳 CHINA'S BRILLIANT MOVE ON GOLD The Gold Shakeup: New Tax Rules ✅ Objective: Concentrate ALL gold liquidity through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). ✅ Before: A messy system where recycled gold avoided VAT, undercutting official channels. ✅ Now: The ONLY way to get VAT-exempt gold is through the SGE. ➡️ Result: Liquidity is being vacuumed out of the OTC market and into the SGE. Trading volume is projected to jump from 60% to 80% of all Chinese gold trade. The Ramification: Squeezing the West ✅ SGE has a ~70% physical withdrawal rate. COMEX is less than 10%. ✅ In 2024, over 1,400 metric tons of gold were physically withdrawn from the SGE. That's roughly the entire reported COMEX vault inventory. ✅ China is inviting central banks (like Cambodia) to store their gold in SGE vaults, building trust and moving the global center of gravity East. The Silver Hammer: Export Controls ✅ Starting Jan 2026, China is imposing export controls (review & quota process) on silver. ✅ This is a de facto ban on shipping silver to the LBMA. ✅ Silver is now a STRATEGIC METAL for China. They are hoarding for their industrial and technological future. The Bottom Line: China is systematically rewiring the global precious metals market. They are centralizing gold liquidity in Shanghai and locking down their silver supply. This will drain physical metal from the West, exposing paper markets and accelerating the East's financial dominance. HT Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 The Sirius Report #Gold #Silver #China #SGE #COMEX #LBMA #Markets #Finance

Mark

30,700 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Everyone got gold wrong last year. And then they got it wrong again this year. The story was simple. Gold is screaming higher, so the dollar must be going to zero. A debasement trade. Except that is not what happened. From the day the Iran conflict started to the day the ceasefire was signed, gold fell 24 percent. If gold were really the dollar-collapse trade, that makes no sense. So what was it actually? Gold was doing exactly what a reserve asset is supposed to do. Think of reserves as a country's piggy bank. You buy gold because one day it will rain and you will need dollars fast. When the conflict hit and liquidity got tight, that day arrived. So you look at what you hold. Treasuries down 20 percent, or gold up big. You do not sell at a loss. You sell the winner. Turkey sold. Russia sold. The Gulf states, hit hardest, sold. Right on cue. That is the part the gold bugs miss. Reserves only help you if you are willing to sell them. Gold that you will never part with does nothing in a crisis. Gold did not fail last year. It did its job.
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Everyone got gold wrong last year. And then they got it wrong again this year. The story was simple. Gold is screaming higher, so the dollar must be going to zero. A debasement trade. Except that is not what happened. From the day the Iran conflict started to the day the ceasefire was signed, gold fell 24 percent. If gold were really the dollar-collapse trade, that makes no sense. So what was it actually? Gold was doing exactly what a reserve asset is supposed to do. Think of reserves as a country's piggy bank. You buy gold because one day it will rain and you will need dollars fast. When the conflict hit and liquidity got tight, that day arrived. So you look at what you hold. Treasuries down 20 percent, or gold up big. You do not sell at a loss. You sell the winner. Turkey sold. Russia sold. The Gulf states, hit hardest, sold. Right on cue. That is the part the gold bugs miss. Reserves only help you if you are willing to sell them. Gold that you will never part with does nothing in a crisis. Gold did not fail last year. It did its job.

Jeffrey P. Snider

50,112 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

"There ain't enough Bitcoin to sell to fund all these IPOs" "If this narrative is going to play true that the IPOs are the reason Bitcoin is dropping, you're gonna have to see that not just in Bitcoin. Everything that's liquid should sell off to fund liquidity for those IPOs" "It would be the same for gold, for silver, all these things. You can only deploy a dollar once. I don't think there's hundreds and hundreds of billions just sitting on the sidelines in dry powder waiting for these IPOs"
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"There ain't enough Bitcoin to sell to fund all these IPOs" "If this narrative is going to play true that the IPOs are the reason Bitcoin is dropping, you're gonna have to see that not just in Bitcoin. Everything that's liquid should sell off to fund liquidity for those IPOs" "It would be the same for gold, for silver, all these things. You can only deploy a dollar once. I don't think there's hundreds and hundreds of billions just sitting on the sidelines in dry powder waiting for these IPOs"

The Wolf Of All Streets

46,496 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten