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Both answers were surprisingly strong because they came from two different values. One chose reconciliation: befriend your friend's enemy to become the bridge that helps heal a broken relationship. The other chose loyalty: don't befriend your friend's enemy because true friendship sometimes means taking a side. Neither answer is...

41,141 просмотров • 6 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Peter Thiel and David Sacks were going to write a book about PayPal. Elon Musk’s chapter was titled “The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.” The PayPal Mafia. The sharpest venture minds of a generation. People who had built with Musk. Watched him operate up close. They thought he was out of his mind. Thiel: “When Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy.” This was not the press misunderstanding a founder. This was his own people. And they were not wrong by accident. They were wrong by design. Because the framework everyone uses to calculate risk is built on one assumption. That the laws governing what is possible are fixed. Musk did not share that assumption. Thiel figured that out later. Thiel: “If one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained both succeed, you have to reassess.” One success is luck. Two is a different kind of intelligence entirely. Musk was simultaneously trying to privatize space and electrify transportation. Two industries with the most entrenched players on Earth. Two that had eaten billions in failed attempts. Two that governments spent decades trying to move and couldn’t. He did both. At the same time. Nearly went bankrupt doing it. And came out the other side owning both. That is not luck. That is not even genius. That is a different relationship with reality itself. The conventional risk model measures one thing. The probability of losing what you already have. Capital at risk. Downside scenarios. Protect the position. Musk was running a different equation entirely. He was calculating the cost of not trying. The risk of building a reusable rocket and failing is a rounding error. The risk of humanity remaining trapped on a single planet forever is not. The conventional investor sees a 90% chance of losing everything and calls it irrational. Musk saw a 100% chance of civilizational stagnation if no one moved and called that the real risk. The math was never wrong. The lens was just incomprehensibly larger. Thiel: “Somehow the rest of us are too risk-averse, or there’s something about risk he knows that we don’t.” That is Peter Thiel. One of the most ruthless, clear-eyed thinkers in venture capital history admitting the model broke. Not that Musk got lucky. That the rest of them were running a flawed framework and didn’t know it. That should keep you up at night. Because if the PayPal Mafia had the wrong model, the question is not whether Musk is exceptional. The question is how many other things the conventional framework is catastrophically wrong about right now. How many ideas getting buried today look obvious in ten years. How many founders are being told they don’t understand risk when they are the only ones who do. The chapter never got written. The man it was supposed to warn us about built two of the most important companies in human history instead. They are still writing the explanation. He already moved on to the next impossible thing.

Dustin

49,454 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Naval Ravikant explains why "the meaning of life" is the wrong question: "It's a 'why' question. You can keep asking 'why' forever. Any answer I give you, you just ask 'why' again." Naval explains where every "why" question ends: "There's a thing called Agrippa's Trilemma. It says that any questioning like this will always end in one of three places. First is infinite regress: 'why?' 'because of this,' 'why?' and you just keep playing it. Second is circular reasoning: 'why A?' 'because of B,' 'why B?' 'because of A.' Third is an axiom. The most popular axiom is God. But it could be anything: math, science, the Big Bang, the simulation. These are all just stopping points. Saying 'we're in a simulation' or 'it's the Big Bang' is just another way of saying God. It's just that God's a dirty word now." He shares what this means: "So there is no answer. The real answer is 'because.' You get to make up your own answers. The beauty is, if there was a single answer, we would not be free. We would be trapped. We'd be Borg-like robots competing with each other to fulfill that single meaning. But luckily there is no answer. So you just do whatever you want." Naval addresses the fear of being insignificant: "All the great questions are paradoxes. You're asking, 'Do I matter?' On one hand, you're completely separate. No one will have your thoughts, your emotions, your experience. Your life is a single-player game. You're trapped inside your head. On the other hand, I cannot say the words 'Joe Rogan' without invoking the entire universe. What's Joe Rogan? A human. What's a human? A bipedal ape. What's an ape? On earth. What's earth? A planet. Where was the carbon made? Inside stars. I have to create the entire universe just to say the words 'Joe Rogan.'" He concludes: "So the answer to 'Do I matter?' is: I am nothing and I am everything. The answers to all great questions are paradoxes. It's pointless to pursue them for a trite answer, but the act of pursuing them brings a level of peace."

Jaynit

155,303 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад