Loading video...

Video Failed to Load

Go Home

Both answers were surprisingly strong because they came from two different values. One chose reconciliation: befriend your friend's enemy to become the bridge that helps heal a broken relationship. The other chose loyalty: don't befriend your friend's enemy because true friendship sometimes means taking a side. Neither answer is...

41,369 views • 26 days ago •via X (Twitter)

0 Comments

No comments available

Comments from the original post will appear here

Related Videos

Peter Thiel and David Sacks were going to write a book about PayPal. Elon Musk’s chapter was titled “The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.” The PayPal Mafia. The sharpest venture minds of a generation. People who had built with Musk. Watched him operate up close. They thought he was out of his mind. Thiel: “When Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy.” This was not the press misunderstanding a founder. This was his own people. And they were not wrong by accident. They were wrong by design. Because the framework everyone uses to calculate risk is built on one assumption. That the laws governing what is possible are fixed. Musk did not share that assumption. Thiel figured that out later. Thiel: “If one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained both succeed, you have to reassess.” One success is luck. Two is a different kind of intelligence entirely. Musk was simultaneously trying to privatize space and electrify transportation. Two industries with the most entrenched players on Earth. Two that had eaten billions in failed attempts. Two that governments spent decades trying to move and couldn’t. He did both. At the same time. Nearly went bankrupt doing it. And came out the other side owning both. That is not luck. That is not even genius. That is a different relationship with reality itself. The conventional risk model measures one thing. The probability of losing what you already have. Capital at risk. Downside scenarios. Protect the position. Musk was running a different equation entirely. He was calculating the cost of not trying. The risk of building a reusable rocket and failing is a rounding error. The risk of humanity remaining trapped on a single planet forever is not. The conventional investor sees a 90% chance of losing everything and calls it irrational. Musk saw a 100% chance of civilizational stagnation if no one moved and called that the real risk. The math was never wrong. The lens was just incomprehensibly larger. Thiel: “Somehow the rest of us are too risk-averse, or there’s something about risk he knows that we don’t.” That is Peter Thiel. One of the most ruthless, clear-eyed thinkers in venture capital history admitting the model broke. Not that Musk got lucky. That the rest of them were running a flawed framework and didn’t know it. That should keep you up at night. Because if the PayPal Mafia had the wrong model, the question is not whether Musk is exceptional. The question is how many other things the conventional framework is catastrophically wrong about right now. How many ideas getting buried today look obvious in ten years. How many founders are being told they don’t understand risk when they are the only ones who do. The chapter never got written. The man it was supposed to warn us about built two of the most important companies in human history instead. They are still writing the explanation. He already moved on to the next impossible thing.

Dustin

49,454 views • 4 months ago