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⚡️BREAKDOWN: Bondholders are offering the US Treasury about 10x its long-end buyback cap. Treasury runs liquidity support buybacks in the 10 to 30 year sectors, capped at $2 BILLION per operation. On Tuesday holders offered $19.87 BILLION. Treasury ended up taking $2 BILLION. Across 22 long-end operations this year,...

23,302 views • 15 hours ago •via X (Twitter)

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The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

721,880 views • 2 months ago

Three of the biggest companies in the world are going public at the same time. The market has never seen anything like this. And this is how major bubbles peak. SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO raising up to $75 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in human history, bigger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019. OpenAI is filing with the SEC targeting September 2026, raising at least $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation. The company is losing $14 billion this year alone and won't be profitable until 2029. Anthropic just raised $30 billion in February 2026 at a $380 billion valuation. Its valuation has increased 15x in just 14 months. It is now preparing what could be a $900 billion private round before going public. Combined, these three IPOs could pull $200 billion from global capital markets. That is real. That is unprecedented. And here's the real risk. OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion cumulatively before reaching profitability. Anthropic's valuation has risen 15x in 14 months on the same underlying business. Both companies are being priced for perfection at a moment when the first companies to actually deploy their products at scale are blowing their AI budgets and cancelling licenses. The real liquidation pressure from these IPOs doesn't even arrive at listing day. It arrives 180 days later when lock-up periods expire and early investors and employees can finally sell. That is when the real rotation happens. The S&P 500 concentration risk is genuine. The Magnificent 7 now represent 36% of the entire index, higher than the dot-com peak in 2000. If any of these companies disappoint, the index follows. That is not a conspiracy. That is basic math. Three historically unprecedented IPOs. $44 billion in projected OpenAI losses. An AI capex cycle that must deliver ROI. Lock-up expirations six months after listing. That combination is what you must pay attention to, as it often break cycles.

Crypto Rover

69,902 views • 2 months ago

The US Treasury bought yen on Friday and paid for it in euros. Then it pointed Tokyo at a Federal Reserve facility that turns US Treasuries into dollars without selling them. The bond Washington feared Japan might dump is now the collateral for not dumping it. The Fed wrote that purpose down in 2020. Three dates. July 23rd. The Japanese yen hits 163.99 per American dollar, weakest since 1986. July 29th. The Fed holds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, three officials dissent for a hike, and the 30-year Treasury closes at 5.21 percent, highest since 2007. July 31st. The New York Fed sells euros and buys yen for the Treasury through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, per the Financial Times. A notepad in front of Scott Bessent at Camp David is photographed at 11.33 that morning reading buy Japanese yen 5 to 10 billion. First US operation to strengthen the yen since 1998. August 3rd. Tokyo confirms, and says it will tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility. Long yields fall. Paying in euros was the tell. Selling American dollars to buy Japanese Yen would have broadcast a weak dollar policy with US core inflation at 3.3 percent. Washington sold its own euro reserves instead and bought the yen support without the signal. The facility is the real story here folks! FIMA lets an approved foreign central bank hand Treasuries to the Fed for dollars, up to 60 billion outstanding per counterparty, on terms out to seven days, then take them back. When the Fed extended it in July 2020 it said in writing that the facility would support the Treasury market by supplying dollars "other than sales of securities in the open market." That machine was built 6 years ago for exactly this situation. Last week it was aimed for the first time. Follow the loop very carefully. A weak yen forces Tokyo to buy yen. Buying yen burns dollar reserves, and Japan's reserves have already fallen from 1.41 trillion in February to 1.31 trillion at the end of May, 77 billion of it in May alone. Rebuilding them by selling Treasuries lifts US yields. FIMA lends dollars against those same Treasuries instead, and the bonds never reach the market. One security, three roles. The asset at risk. The collateral the Fed accepts. The funding for the currency defense. Now the part that decides everything. FIMA is open to central banks and official institutions. It is closed to Japanese banks, insurers, pension funds, and every leveraged carry book on earth. The trillion plus of Treasuries attributed to Japan in US data is a country total covering all Japanese holders, not a government portfolio.... Washington has built a firewall around the official seller. There is none around the private one. The Bank of Japan held at 1%, 8 to 1, one member pushing 1.25%. Headline core inflation reads 1.6 percent while the bank forecasts core clearly above 2 percent in the second half of the fiscal year, citing wages, oil and the weak yen. September is live and nothing is promised. The Fed sits at 3.50 to 3.75. The gap runs 2.5 points at its narrowest. US jobs land Friday. Washington can repo away a government's need to sell. It cannot repo away everyone else's decision to.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

228,038 views • 17 days ago

🚨 WARNING: 99% OF PEOPLE WILL MISS THIS! The $MURAD airdrop is now LIVE for $ANSEM and #SPX6900 holders. And this could be one of the BIGGEST opportunities of the past year. $ANSEM has around 122,000 holders. #SPX6900 has around 49,000 holders. That's up to 171,000 eligible wallets. Now imagine if each eligible holder bought just $5 worth of $MURAD. That's up to $855,000 in potential buy pressure. Based on the current liquidity, even limited participation could have a major impact: 100% → $855,000 in buys → ~$272M market cap 50% → $427,500 → ~$136M market cap 25% → $213,750 → ~$68M market cap 12.5% → $106,875 → ~$34M market cap And that is only the airdrop side. The first $15,000 buyback has already been completed. Another $15,000 buyback will happen at every $1 MILLION increase in market cap. Every token bought back will be sent directly to Murad’s wallet, which already holds 40% of the total supply. What happens if Murad buys $MURAD or posts about it publicly. #SPX6900 grew into a $2 BILLION memecoin while Murad became one of its biggest public supporters. $MURAD does NOT need to reach those levels for the upside to become massive. From a $2M market cap: → $10M = 5x → $50M = 25x → $100M = 50x → $500M = 250x → $1B = 500x One post does NOT guarantee any of this. But if Murad publicly supports the project, the entire narrative changes instantly. I’m doubling my first target for $MURAD to a $10 MILLION market cap. And I’ve already bought more. Most people will wait until the next rally before paying attention. I would rather buy $MURAD before that happens. Do NOT miss the same setup twice.

Wimar.X

36,708 views • 1 month ago

In 2024, Russia faced a 13-year record jump in gas prices after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries that caused fuel production to collapse by more than 10% in the first half of the year. According to Rosstat, from the beginning of the year to December 23, gasoline prices rose by 11% on average in Russia. At the same time, prices in remote regions of the Far East exceeded the Russian average by a quarter. By the end of the year, gasoline price growth will be the strongest since 2011. For the first time in 6 years, gasoline prices have risen significantly above the headline inflation rate, which the Russian ministry of economic development estimates at 9.7% a week before the end of the year. This year, the Russian government tried to curb gasoline prices by banning its exports: the restrictions were imposed shortly after two dozen major Russian refineries were attacked by Ukrainian UAVs and a number of them were forced to halt production. By the end of May, the decline in gasoline production in Russia reached 20% compared to December 2023, and diesel fuel - 11%. In response, the authorities classified fuel output statistics, citing geopolitics and the threat of market manipulation as reasons. In 2025, gasoline will continue to rise in price in Russia. In the best-case scenario, it will rise by 10-15%, and in the worst case - 20%, which, according to Rosstat, has not happened in Russia since 2004 (when the cost of fuel jumped by a record 31.3%). The reason will be an increase in Transneft's pipeline pumping tariffs, as well as a sharp increase in excise taxes: they will rise 14% for gasoline and 16% for diesel fuel, which is three times more than was provided for in the Tax Code (4.7%). According to government calculations, this will bring 170 billion rubles ($1,6 billion) to the treasury, of which 116 billion ($1,13 billion) will be due to the unscheduled increase. Rising gasoline prices will automatically lead to higher prices for everything else in Russia, as the cost of fuel is included in the delivery of all goods and automatically increases the cost of the end product for the buyer. Inflation in Russia will also increase.

Anton Gerashchenko

81,314 views • 1 year ago

Africa GDP (all 54 nations): $3.1 Trillion India GDP: $3.55 Trillion *point: the economy of a nation state is larger than the economies of all the states in the continent. And there are debates about the true scale of informal economy and whether it is captured in the numbers* South Africa GDP: $377.8 Billion Mumbai GDP: $310 Billion *point: a single state is the economy equivalent of the largest most industrialised economy in all of Africa* India population: 1,429 Billion Africa population: 1.527 Billion Point: I just realised that most of my community reading this will not understand what “scale” truly means. Wave after wave after unending wave of businesses, traders, shops, hawkers, merchants, dealers, artisans, engineers, analysts, doctors, engineers, bankers, financiers, realtors, accountants etc. The list is endless. The scale of precision engineering that I witnessed on one of tours. It’s not just low-vector labour work that is at scale. It’s the complex tooling & engineering industries that are also at scale. (Obviously can’t share that material publicly). Just yesterday, during my book signing, I spoke to more engineers, masters students, analysts, cyber security professionals & developers in a single sitting than I have ever had in the past. Ever! Read that again. As my team & I leave for DxB next I am left wondering, “will Africa ever catch up?” I came here thinking we have a chance. I leave thinking we haven’t even arrived at the stadium where the race is happening yet. To the incredible team (picture 3 & 4) that made this immersion happen, God bless you Descriptions: Video 1 is my team & I walking through a random market to understand the scale of the informal economy here. Video 2 was an intimate dinner with some of the most influential business leaders x kingdom builders. VT

VT

84,915 views • 1 year ago

🧵 Why China Does Not Want War With the United States—Even If It Has Military Supremacy It is becoming increasingly clear that China now holds a decisive military edge in many areas over the United States. It has built a war machine optimized for network-centric warfare, outpacing the U.S. in electronic jamming, long-range missile precision, radar integration, and regional air dominance. It can deny access, blind satellites, and overwhelm fleets. But military supremacy doesn’t mean recklessness. China has the ability to win battles. But it has no interest in starting a war—because it understands the cost of victory might be national suicide. Let us begin with a basic truth. China is not self-sufficient when it comes to economic demand. Its internal market is still maturing. Who feeds the Chinese people economically? The answer is: the world—especially the rich, Western world. China’s total foreign trade in 2024 hit 43.85 trillion yuan (~US$6 trillion), with exports accounting for 25.45 trillion yuan (~US$3.47 trillion). This figure is often downplayed by critics who claim “exports only represent around 18–30% of China’s GDP.” But such figures miss the structural importance of exports: they power the coastal provinces, which in turn power the entire nation. The bulk of China’s industrial and export muscle is concentrated in six coastal provinces: 1. Guangdong (~US$888 billion exports) 2. Zhejiang (~US$532 billion) 3. Jiangsu (~US$518 billion) 4. Shandong (~US$272 billion) 5. Shanghai (~US$255 billion) 6. Fujian (~US$167 billion) Together, these provinces account for the majority of China's exports. They are also home to China’s largest ports—Shenzhen, Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao—which function as lifelines for both imports and exports. Once war breaks out, these ports will shut down—either by enemy blockade, missile strikes, or insurance collapse. That means factories stop, logistics freeze, and tens of millions are thrown into unemployment. Some believe China can pivot to trade with the Global South—BRICS, Belt and Road nations, Africa, Latin America. It’s a comforting illusion. Here’s the problem: China mainly imports resources from the Global South—oil, gas, lithium, bauxite, copper, iron ore—not finished goods. It uses these to manufacture high-end products. But who consumes these products? The West. In 2024: Exports to the United States totaled 3.73 trillion yuan (approx. 514 billion USD) Exports to the European Union: 3.68 trillion yuan (approx. 508 billion USD) Exports to Japan and South Korea: over 1.5 trillion yuan combined (approx. 207 billion USD) - ASEAN nations were the top partner bloc, but much of this was processing trade with end-markets in the West This adds up to nearly half of China's total exports going to Western or high-income markets. These are the only markets with the income level and consumer appetite to absorb the full output of Chinese industry. Remove them from the equation—and the entire chain collapses. Here’s how a war, or even a serious blockade, would detonate the economy: 1. Western demand disappears 2. China stops exporting to Europe, the U.S., Japan, South Korea. 3. China no longer needs to import energy, iron ore, or copper from BRICS and the Global South 4. Global South trade drastically drops—because there’s no downstream use 5. Coastal factories go silent 6. Wealth stops flowing inland 7. Domestic consumption drops 8. Local governments collapse under fiscal pressure 9. Unemployment skyrockets 10. Social unrest erupts That’s the chain reaction. It would a few months, not years. Despite all efforts to de-dollarize, to promote RMB trade, to build an alternative system—this is still a Western-centric global economy. Even in 2024, over 59% of Chinese exports were mechanical and electrical products—designed for Western consumers, not subsistence economies. 👇

America-China Watcher

25,099 views • 1 year ago

Distinctive Yield Mechanics 1/2 I hold 1,000,000 $XPR at $7 each. That gives me $7,000,000 in collateral value. If I borrow against 25% of that position, my loan amount is: $7,000,000 × 25% = $1,750,000 My current LTV is 25%. At $1,750,000 borrowed against $7,000,000 in collateral, I am sitting at 25% LTV, which leaves a large buffer. Now the interest. A 12% annual borrow rate on $1,750,000 equals: $1,750,000 × 0.12 = $210,000 per year That breaks down to: $210,000 ÷ 12 = $17,500 per month So the debt cost is: $17,500 a month $210,000 a year Now look at the remaining capital. The other 75% of the position represents $5,250,000 in value. If that $5,250,000 is put to work at a conservative 4% annual return, the yield becomes: $5,250,000 × 0.04 = $210,000 per year Monthly, that becomes: $210,000 ÷ 12 = $17,500 per month So the mechanics line up cleanly: Borrow 25% at 12% APR Earn 4% on the remaining 75% Debt cost = $210,000/year Yield generated = $210,000/year Same result from another angle: 25% × 12% = 3% 75% × 4% = 3% So the 4% earned on the 75% can fully service the 12% interest owed on the 25% borrowed. That creates a break-even carry structure before fees, token price changes, liquidation mechanics, reward changes, or compounding differences enter the picture. The hard mechanics are simple: XPR is posted as collateral A smaller amount is borrowed against it Interest accrues on the borrowed amount Yield accrues on the larger remaining portion As long as the yield earned covers the interest owed, the debt can be serviced from the productive side of the position The clean takeaway: A 25% borrow at 12% costs the same annually as a 4% return on the remaining 75%. $1,750,000 borrowed at 12% = $210,000/year owed. $5,250,000 deployed at 4% = $210,000/year earned. That is the hard math.

X-juPiteR-X

60,474 views • 4 months ago