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⚡️BREAKDOWN: Bondholders are offering the US Treasury about 10x its long-end buyback cap. Treasury runs liquidity support buybacks in the 10 to 30 year sectors, capped at $2 BILLION per operation. On Tuesday holders offered $19.87 BILLION. Treasury ended up taking $2 BILLION. Across 22 long-end operations this year,...

37,062 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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THE REAL REASON BITCOIN JUST PUMPED TO $69,700 (and will keep pumping) Everyone is staring at the green Bitcoin candle, but the move started somewhere else entirely, in the US Treasury bond market The Treasury just doubled its long-term bond buyback program old max: $2 billion per operation new max: at least $4 billion targets: the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year bonds runs from September 9 through November 4 In plain terms, the Treasury is stepping in to support the market for long-term government debt That matters because when Treasury yields fall, risk assets like Bitcoin get more attractive Right after the announcement the yields dropped 10 year: -6 bps to 4.647% 30 year: -9 bps to 5.196% Then Bitcoin ripped $65,400 at 10:45 AM -> $67,600 at 11:26 AM -> $69,700 at 11:27 AM It gained more than $2,000 in a single minute That candle trapped everyone shorting Bitcoin, their leveraged shorts got liquidated and the forced buying pushed price even higher $1.59 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours $746 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in that one minute candle The chain was simple Treasury expands buybacks -> long-term yields fall -> Bitcoin pumps -> shorts get liquidated -> forced buying sends it even higher One correction, this is not QE and the Fed did not turn on the printer The Treasury is just buying back existing bonds to add liquidity, and the size is still small next to how much debt the US issues But the timing is the tell, the bond market moved first and Bitcoin followed, then the short squeeze turned it into an explosion Everyone is showing you the candle, almost nobody is talking about what happened right before it September 9 is the date to watch now

Atlas

774,784 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

722,235 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Three of the biggest companies in the world are going public at the same time. The market has never seen anything like this. And this is how major bubbles peak. SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO raising up to $75 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in human history, bigger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019. OpenAI is filing with the SEC targeting September 2026, raising at least $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation. The company is losing $14 billion this year alone and won't be profitable until 2029. Anthropic just raised $30 billion in February 2026 at a $380 billion valuation. Its valuation has increased 15x in just 14 months. It is now preparing what could be a $900 billion private round before going public. Combined, these three IPOs could pull $200 billion from global capital markets. That is real. That is unprecedented. And here's the real risk. OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion cumulatively before reaching profitability. Anthropic's valuation has risen 15x in 14 months on the same underlying business. Both companies are being priced for perfection at a moment when the first companies to actually deploy their products at scale are blowing their AI budgets and cancelling licenses. The real liquidation pressure from these IPOs doesn't even arrive at listing day. It arrives 180 days later when lock-up periods expire and early investors and employees can finally sell. That is when the real rotation happens. The S&P 500 concentration risk is genuine. The Magnificent 7 now represent 36% of the entire index, higher than the dot-com peak in 2000. If any of these companies disappoint, the index follows. That is not a conspiracy. That is basic math. Three historically unprecedented IPOs. $44 billion in projected OpenAI losses. An AI capex cycle that must deliver ROI. Lock-up expirations six months after listing. That combination is what you must pay attention to, as it often break cycles.

Crypto Rover

69,902 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 SCOTT BESSENT EFFECTIVELY CONFIRMS A BOND CRISIS, SAYS MARKET TOO ILLIQUID TO CONTROL Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on CNBC and said the quiet part out loud: He raised the size of U.S. Treasury buybacks because “we are in a very illiquid period. The market is moving quickly… I can’t set the equilibrium price.” This is the same man who weeks earlier told traders “I am the house now. I have asymmetric information. Bet against me if you want.” Here’s what’s actually happening. He doubled bond buybacks, then pushed toward $6 billion, liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year bonds. He went on to dump Euros and Dollars to save the yen so BoJ doesn’t dump their U.S. Treasury Holdings. Scott Bessent even warned the Fed to expand the FIMA facility to Japan or watch the treasury market bleed. The 10-year has been grinding toward 5.2%+. The 30-year just printed levels last seen in 2004. Global government bond yields are near 4%, highest since 2007. Japan’s 10-year hit highs not seen since 1996. Germany’s 10-year is at 17-year peaks. This isn’t one country. This is a synchronized long-end revolt. Japan still holds about $1.1 trillion of U.S. Treasuries, the largest foreign holder. Those holdings have been sliding for months as Tokyo’s own debt-to-GDP sits above 220% and JGB yields explode. When the world’s biggest overseas buyer starts preferring its own higher-yielding paper (or just needs the cash), the bid for U.S. duration gets thinner. That’s the illiquidity Bessent is now admitting he cannot paper over with a few billion in buybacks against hundreds of billions in new issuance and $40 trillion+ of existing debt. When the official who called himself “the house” starts saying he cannot set the equilibrium price, the market is telling you something simple: we are in a bond crisis. The most dangerous response from Yuto 🇯🇵: “Japan isn’t just betting against the house, it’s bringing the entire house down.” We’re now seeing that as a global debt crisis which could catastrophically turn into a global liquidity crisis if not stopped. That’s why gold exists. Not as a trade. As the asset that doesn’t require a Treasury Secretary to promise he can still control the price.

Stern Drew

767,832 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce

The US Treasury bought yen on Friday and paid for it in euros. Then it pointed Tokyo at a Federal Reserve facility that turns US Treasuries into dollars without selling them. The bond Washington feared Japan might dump is now the collateral for not dumping it. The Fed wrote that purpose down in 2020. Three dates. July 23rd. The Japanese yen hits 163.99 per American dollar, weakest since 1986. July 29th. The Fed holds at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, three officials dissent for a hike, and the 30-year Treasury closes at 5.21 percent, highest since 2007. July 31st. The New York Fed sells euros and buys yen for the Treasury through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, per the Financial Times. A notepad in front of Scott Bessent at Camp David is photographed at 11.33 that morning reading buy Japanese yen 5 to 10 billion. First US operation to strengthen the yen since 1998. August 3rd. Tokyo confirms, and says it will tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility. Long yields fall. Paying in euros was the tell. Selling American dollars to buy Japanese Yen would have broadcast a weak dollar policy with US core inflation at 3.3 percent. Washington sold its own euro reserves instead and bought the yen support without the signal. The facility is the real story here folks! FIMA lets an approved foreign central bank hand Treasuries to the Fed for dollars, up to 60 billion outstanding per counterparty, on terms out to seven days, then take them back. When the Fed extended it in July 2020 it said in writing that the facility would support the Treasury market by supplying dollars "other than sales of securities in the open market." That machine was built 6 years ago for exactly this situation. Last week it was aimed for the first time. Follow the loop very carefully. A weak yen forces Tokyo to buy yen. Buying yen burns dollar reserves, and Japan's reserves have already fallen from 1.41 trillion in February to 1.31 trillion at the end of May, 77 billion of it in May alone. Rebuilding them by selling Treasuries lifts US yields. FIMA lends dollars against those same Treasuries instead, and the bonds never reach the market. One security, three roles. The asset at risk. The collateral the Fed accepts. The funding for the currency defense. Now the part that decides everything. FIMA is open to central banks and official institutions. It is closed to Japanese banks, insurers, pension funds, and every leveraged carry book on earth. The trillion plus of Treasuries attributed to Japan in US data is a country total covering all Japanese holders, not a government portfolio.... Washington has built a firewall around the official seller. There is none around the private one. The Bank of Japan held at 1%, 8 to 1, one member pushing 1.25%. Headline core inflation reads 1.6 percent while the bank forecasts core clearly above 2 percent in the second half of the fiscal year, citing wages, oil and the weak yen. September is live and nothing is promised. The Fed sits at 3.50 to 3.75. The gap runs 2.5 points at its narrowest. US jobs land Friday. Washington can repo away a government's need to sell. It cannot repo away everyone else's decision to.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

229,626 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 WARNING: 99% OF PEOPLE WILL MISS THIS! The $MURAD airdrop is now LIVE for $ANSEM and #SPX6900 holders. And this could be one of the BIGGEST opportunities of the past year. $ANSEM has around 122,000 holders. #SPX6900 has around 49,000 holders. That's up to 171,000 eligible wallets. Now imagine if each eligible holder bought just $5 worth of $MURAD. That's up to $855,000 in potential buy pressure. Based on the current liquidity, even limited participation could have a major impact: 100% → $855,000 in buys → ~$272M market cap 50% → $427,500 → ~$136M market cap 25% → $213,750 → ~$68M market cap 12.5% → $106,875 → ~$34M market cap And that is only the airdrop side. The first $15,000 buyback has already been completed. Another $15,000 buyback will happen at every $1 MILLION increase in market cap. Every token bought back will be sent directly to Murad’s wallet, which already holds 40% of the total supply. What happens if Murad buys $MURAD or posts about it publicly. #SPX6900 grew into a $2 BILLION memecoin while Murad became one of its biggest public supporters. $MURAD does NOT need to reach those levels for the upside to become massive. From a $2M market cap: → $10M = 5x → $50M = 25x → $100M = 50x → $500M = 250x → $1B = 500x One post does NOT guarantee any of this. But if Murad publicly supports the project, the entire narrative changes instantly. I’m doubling my first target for $MURAD to a $10 MILLION market cap. And I’ve already bought more. Most people will wait until the next rally before paying attention. I would rather buy $MURAD before that happens. Do NOT miss the same setup twice.

Wimar.X

36,708 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026 FOR MARKETS!! You MUST read this before August 24. Japan is dumping $5.5 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. China is dumping $650 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. just admitted the economy is collapsing and DOUBLED buybacks to cover the damage. If you own any assets today, you MUST know this: Japan and China are forcing capital back into their countries. And the biggest carry trade in history is now starting to unwind. This is NOT normal. For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That turned the yen into the world's cheapest funding currency. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then they poured that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. That trade is now breaking apart. Japan is facing soaring government debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital back home. And now China is adding another layer of pressure to the U.S. Treasury market. China has been steadily reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Chinese Treasury holdings just fell to $633 BILLION, the lowest level since 2008. At the same time, China continues to build its gold reserves. → U.S. Treasuries get reduced → Gold holdings increase → Demand for U.S. debt weakens → Pressure on Treasury yields increases Japan and China were both among the major sources of the latest decline in foreign Treasury holdings. And when two of the world's biggest holders reduce their exposure at the same time... Someone else has to absorb that supply. That means higher yields are required to attract buyers. And U.S. bond yields are already surging. The 30-year Treasury yield recently pushed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2007. The U.S. Treasury is now forced to buy back its own debt because no one else wants it. Read that again. This is the part most people are missing. Japan is pulling capital toward Japan. China is reducing Treasury exposure and increasing its strategic gold position. → Foreign Treasury demand weakens → Treasury prices fall → U.S. bond yields rise → Borrowing costs increase → Liquidity tightens This creates another feedback loop. Higher U.S. yields increase the cost of financing the enormous U.S. government debt load. Higher Japanese yields make Japanese assets more attractive. And China's continued diversification adds another structural source of pressure to the Treasury market. Pay attention. Most people won't understand why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over 12 years and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

0xNobler

658,189 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

In 2024, Russia faced a 13-year record jump in gas prices after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries that caused fuel production to collapse by more than 10% in the first half of the year. According to Rosstat, from the beginning of the year to December 23, gasoline prices rose by 11% on average in Russia. At the same time, prices in remote regions of the Far East exceeded the Russian average by a quarter. By the end of the year, gasoline price growth will be the strongest since 2011. For the first time in 6 years, gasoline prices have risen significantly above the headline inflation rate, which the Russian ministry of economic development estimates at 9.7% a week before the end of the year. This year, the Russian government tried to curb gasoline prices by banning its exports: the restrictions were imposed shortly after two dozen major Russian refineries were attacked by Ukrainian UAVs and a number of them were forced to halt production. By the end of May, the decline in gasoline production in Russia reached 20% compared to December 2023, and diesel fuel - 11%. In response, the authorities classified fuel output statistics, citing geopolitics and the threat of market manipulation as reasons. In 2025, gasoline will continue to rise in price in Russia. In the best-case scenario, it will rise by 10-15%, and in the worst case - 20%, which, according to Rosstat, has not happened in Russia since 2004 (when the cost of fuel jumped by a record 31.3%). The reason will be an increase in Transneft's pipeline pumping tariffs, as well as a sharp increase in excise taxes: they will rise 14% for gasoline and 16% for diesel fuel, which is three times more than was provided for in the Tax Code (4.7%). According to government calculations, this will bring 170 billion rubles ($1,6 billion) to the treasury, of which 116 billion ($1,13 billion) will be due to the unscheduled increase. Rising gasoline prices will automatically lead to higher prices for everything else in Russia, as the cost of fuel is included in the delivery of all goods and automatically increases the cost of the end product for the buyer. Inflation in Russia will also increase.

Anton Gerashchenko

81,314 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce