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‼️🇵🇱🇺🇦 BREAKING - Poland may shoot down drones over Ukraine, but such a decision will be made together with allies, — head of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs "Speaking personally, we should consider establishing a no-drone zone over Ukraine. Technically, NATO and the EU are capable of implementing...

296,549 views • 10 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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‼️🇺🇲🇷🇺🇵🇱 BIG | Russia is preparing for a large-scale military provocation, which could take place against Poland or one of the Baltic states. The US has warned Poland that the Russian Federation is preparing an armed provocation in the coming months, The Telegraph and the Polish publication Onet report, citing intelligence services. Russia's target could be Poland's critical infrastructure via missiles and drones, or Russian soldiers might cross the border into NATO territory. Washington has already sent several warnings to Warsaw about this plot, sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told the Polish news outlet Onet, which, along with The Telegraph, is owned by Axel Springer and is part of its Global Reporters Network. The purpose of the Russian provocation would be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to halt aid to Ukraine. This could begin in a few months. Polish security service sources also do not rule out a more conventional attack, such as a small-scale ground incursion by Russian soldiers onto NATO's eastern flank. According to Onet's security service sources, provocation scenarios could include drone attacks on critical infrastructure like power plants, or simulated airstrikes, forcing Poland to activate its air defense systems. A Polish intelligence source stated that in the most extreme scenario, a "hybrid attack in the border region" could occur. According to the same source, an armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers is possible. This could be presented by Russia as an accidental crossing into Polish territory due to a GPS malfunction, or as a suspicious rescue mission to retrieve a damaged helicopter. Polish sources told Onet that Russia hopes that in such a situation, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers, the US would pressure Poland to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond with force. A scenario in which the Russians leave Poland as a result of these negotiations, rather than through military coercion, would be seen as a victory from Moscow's perspective. During such negotiations, in exchange for withdrawing troops from Poland, Russia's main demand could even be the termination of Western support for Ukraine. "The US systematically provides information to Poland about new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded," said a source close to the Polish President. A second source, an ambassador of one of Poland's NATO allies, also confirmed that a provocation in the Baltic states and Poland is a serious risk. This information was confirmed by a third source within the Polish Ministry of Defense. A fourth security source from the Baltic states confirmed to The Telegraph that such plans are indeed being discussed in Moscow. Following this, Russia might attempt to claim that the provocation was carried out by Ukraine. Any ground attack by Russia could be launched either from Kaliningrad—Russia's exclave north of Poland where nuclear weapons are stationed—or from the east, via Belarusian territory. Such methods are Russia's only realistic way to stage a provocation. Because its forces are bogged down in Ukraine, it lacks the resources to wage a full-scale war against NATO allies. Although Poland remains a committed security ally of Ukraine, relations have become strained in recent months due to differing views on World War II-era history and the competitive agricultural industries of the two countries. There are fears that Moscow will attempt to widen this rift even further. In the worst-case scenario for NATO, Russia's goal would be to undermine Polish sovereignty, portray NATO as a "paper tiger" (demonstrate its helplessness), and force the cessation of Western support for Ukraine—all without triggering a conventional war with the alliance. Video is made Grok AI

Visioner

238,250 views • 11 days ago

Slow Progress is the New Reality of Modern Wars There are many people commenting on Russian difficulties and coming up with numerous reasons for their alleged collapse. I absolutely do not see any collapse; on the contrary, Russia has already normalized a state of war in Ukraine, which boosts its economic and industrial growth. The difficulties faced by Russia today are the same as at the beginning of the war, with soldiers having to spend up to half of their initial salaries on their own equipment, delays in pensions, and a series of other problems that are mirrored on the Ukrainian side, even with all the support from allies. The war today is much less lethal than it was months ago, and both Russian and Ukrainian losses have significantly decreased during this phase. Lethality has fallen, but Russian advances persist. And why are they slow? Is it a Ukrainian tactic? No. They are slow because they are accompanied by the deployment of communication infrastructure like signal repeaters for drones, the advancement of artillery guided by drones, maneuvers using FAB and more recently ODAB bombs against Ukrainian drone operators' facilities, infiltration by reconnaissance teams, saboteurs, and a series of protocols they have developed. That conventional war with rapid advances no longer exists, and in the context of a battlefield dominated by drones, it is unlikely to return. Modern wars will have slow progress, as seen in the attacks and counter-attacks of the Russians and Ukrainians in this war. Contemporary military forces are still unable to see this new reality of war. When analyzing the Russian advance, it's important to consider that all these maneuvers take days to unfold, but the point is that the Russians have already adapted to this pace, not bothered whether a particular advance will take 3 weeks or 3 months. They advance continuously following tactical protocols with little threat from Ukrainian forces, which, without new equipment, have had their defensive tactics remain almost unchanged over the past two years, relying mainly on drones and making it easier for Russian studies of countermeasures. And what can Ukraine do in this situation? I see few options, but one would be to delay the Russian advance with a good number of missiles, though personally, I find it unlikely that they will reach Ukrainian hands. It wouldn't have the power to change the balance of the war, but it would guarantee more time, which is important because the battlefield is dynamic, and the implementation of new tactics based on innovative weapons can change everything overnight. A war that seems almost lost today could take a different turn in weeks. Time is crucial for Ukraine, which has fronts only about 130 km from cities like Zaporizhia and Dnipro.

Patricia Marins

39,318 views • 11 months ago