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BREAKING: Snow totals dramatically increased as high resolution computer models continue to trend colder with the temperatures aloft. This reduces the time for sleet accumulation in Northwest Arkansas leading to higher snow totals. Stay safe & we'll keep you updated. #ARwx #OKwx

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***SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FRIDAY*** 2ND CALL UPDATED MAP TO INCLUDE 10"+ TOTALS Merry Christmas everyone! I've had some time to review the new data and the storm is basically behaving just as I initially thought. There are a few revisions to my 1st call from yesterday morning to account for HIGHER SNOW RATIOS over NW NJ/Hudson Valley and to move the 6-10" zone into NYC. ZONE 1 – 6–10" OF SNOW This is the zone where cold air damming will be most prevalent, allowing snow to remain all snow for the duration of the event. Expect higher snow ratios, which could allow many areas to push toward double-digit totals, especially under any persistent banding. The pink area of 10"+ accounts for a MUCH higher snow ratio at the start and duration of the storm. This will allow for higher elevations to see many locations pick up 10"+ ZONE 2 – 4–6" OF SNOW This zone will likely start with heavy, wet snow, before transitioning to a lighter, fluffier snowfall as colder air works in. Some compaction is expected with lower snow ratios at times, but additional snow and mesoscale banding could still drive totals toward or above 6" in spots. ZONE 3 – 2–4" WITH MIXING This zone remains VERY uncertain. Everything south of 195 in NJ has a high chance to flip to heavy sleet and rain during convective bandings. I could make a strong argument that cold air advection dominates a tad longer creating an over performer, keeping this mostly snow with sleet mixed in and allowing totals to reach 4–6". However, low-level warm air transport on an easterly wind may introduce sleet, especially along the Jersey Shore (east of GSP) would eat into accumulations. I’ll be watching trends closely as this is shaping up to be a sharp cutoff storm where small shifts could have big impacts.

Mike Masco

934,180 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten