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$BTC - Quick update regarding the orderflow: -4H beardivs & lower timeframe -Multiple bearish divergences volume wise (AGGR&CVD&Spot vs perps) -SSL engineered -Weekend & early munday sweep. What could go wrong right? Still short. Video is quick&easy. GN

11,451 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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$BTC Update – 26th June 2026 These video updates are for educational purposes only and should never be considered investment or trading advice. This update focuses on the shorter-term outlook for $BTC and the broader context for risk markets. The $BTC / #Cryptocurrency market appears to be entering a period where a bottoming process is likely to develop. The decline from mid-May has now moved into the synced low (The Principle of Synchronicity), with price falling around 30% from the highs. We also saw the sweep of the low discussed a few days ago. While there is still scope for one final flush lower, such a move could present a much lower-risk opportunity for a move back towards the range highs. That said, momentum remains flat and recent upside attempts have struggled. While it is likely a bottom is in the process of forming, no low has been confirmed. For now, the bias has shifted from bearish to neutral. At these levels, I don't believe it is a market to be aggressively bearish, as the conditions are gradually becoming more supportive of stability and an upward move once confirmation is in place. The first significant resistance remains around the 64k region (on the Q and SR). There is currently no evidence that the final low is in place, and the broader backdrop still includes elevated implied volatility and continued dollar strength Looking beyond crypto, there are clear signs of instability beneath the surface of the equity market. Stocks such as $MSFT are under pressure, while only a handful of AI-related names have accounted for much of the broader market's gains. Combined with what appears to be a major low in $TLT and signals coming from the $VIX, the evidence continues to point towards increased market instability. For that reason, I believe it remains sensible to stay focused on the short term with $BTC rather than anticipate the start of a sustained bullish phase, particularly given the weakness of the previous trend. Once a confirmed low is in place, I'll provide an update in the $BTC channel within the server. We shifted to a bearish stance on 12th May, which proved to be the correct approach sidestepping the 30% decline and being short biased. For now, we're neutral and waiting for the data to justify a shift back to bullish. Until then, I believe there are better opportunities elsewhere in the market or time is better spent forming plans. As always, thank you to everyone who continues to support the feed and help to spread objective analysis based on data.

venture

52,620 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Bitcoin dropped to $93k yesterday and also printed a second TBO Breakdown, which is a bearish explosive prediction symbol from the Trending Breakout indicator. It's interesting to see BTC bounce from this level, but the signs are clear on multiple time frames that BTC is looking more and more bearish. ETH also confirmed its first TBO Breakdown yesterday on its daily close. Not to mention it printed a TBO Close Long on the weekly candle too. Now speaking of TBO Close Longs on the weekly, one possible outcome for these signals is that we get an oversold bounce for both BTC and ETH up to the weekly TBO Fast lines. If this happens, the market will feel ECSTATIC for a short period, but given how strong bearish the charts are, there is a strong chance that it will only be a temporary bounce before we see more pain to the downside. To make matters worse, combined stablecoin dominance printed its third TBO Breakout on the daily- the final symbol we'll see for the Breakout cluster. To make matters worse here, weekly RSI is above 75, which means we're more likely to see bullish continuation for this chart- which means more pain for ALTs (bot not all of them). STRK, XMR, ASTER and MORPHO have valid TBO Breakouts on their 4h and daily charts, which means we could see these chart have more explosive upside continuation. LTC, PI and BANANAS31 have new TBO Close Shorts on the daily time frame, which are early bullish reversal signals. Yes, I'm still expecting LTC to pump. The market isn't over until LTC (the fat lady) sings/pumps. ZEC, DASH, NIBI and RESOLV remain strong bullish with the TBO, making these good candidates for further upside continuation. SOL printed a third and final TBO Breakdown on its daily chart over the weekend, and ADA printed a TBO Breakdown Cluster on its 4h chart. These signals warn us of potential explosive downside continuation. TEL, XPL and MYX are worth watching this week due to irregular Volume and price action.

Aaron Dishner

62,656 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Dango's epoch 2 finished in 22 hours, there are easy points to grab, so here's my post (I said yesterday that I was going to do it I'v made a short vdo to show the whole protocol, and a quick presentation below. dango🍡 is a L1 built from scratch with a proper on-chain CLOB for spot + perps. If you're a r€tarded bro looking for money, just remember that it's a promising new Perp-DEX. ➜ The Airdrop: - Log in - Deposit at least $10 to activate your account, - Trade or LP, earn points. EZ. And yes, the more volume you make, the more you earn. ~50% of total $DNG supply is going straight to the community through points. Maybe more like 60 to 70%, I'm sharing with you an interview of the founder below, done what you want... TGE targeted for Q4 2026, so we've got time to farm properly. But if the hype cook, points will be diluted as the weeks go by, it's always easier to accumulate them at the beginning (remember Hyperliquid). [ Testnet participants and Galxe folks gonna be eligible too, and will have '' major advantage ''.] ➜ How the points works: 1 million points every week. 1️⃣ 750k split between perps traders (volume + OI driven) 2️⃣ 250k for vault/DLP depositors You also rack up lootboxes as you trade: bronze every $25k volume, silver $100k, gold $250k, crystal $500k. Those open into NFTs with hidden point multipliers that will matter when the program ends. ➜ Rankings right now: Because it's still early, you don't need massive volume to place well. Consistent activity gets you into top 1000 pretty easily. Top 100 takes more obviously, but the bar isn't crazy high yet compared to older platforms. ➜ Team and backing: Team is legit and known. The founder, Larry0x is a former smart contract developer at Delphi Digital and was heavily involved with Mars Protocol + Left Curve Software, proper Cosmos builders. They raised $3.6M from Hack VC, Lemniscap, Delphi... _____ And that's it.. my strategy is simple, farm max points during first weeks, as long as it's simple, then I'll advise according to how the project develops. I'm currently testing a solution for easy volume, I'm waiting for the full results and I'll share it tomorrow 😉

𝗙𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗟𝗶𝗳𝗲

44,071 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

BTC is showing the textbook signs of a pivot high. RSI confirmed overbought and reversed in a single day - the last time we saw a one-and-done RSI move like this was back in January before a meaningful pullback. OBV's moving average is still pointing up, which keeps the door open for one more push to around $77K, but the bear flag has been fulfilled. Higher lows and higher highs are done. We can go home. If BTC does put in a higher high from here, I'd expect to see a lower high on RSI - that would just reinforce the setup. Support sits around $65K-$67K, and based on the pace of the last drawdown, something like that by end of weekend isn't unreasonable. Ethereum held up stronger than BTC this week, with RSI staying overbought across three days - Sunday at 73, Monday at 84, Tuesday at 76. ETHBTC is right at resistance. The multiple factor effect means whatever BTC does, ETH does 1.5x to 2x. Ethereum could still push higher, but we're deep into risky territory. Stablecoin dominance flipped green after eight consecutive red days. RSI confirmed oversold on Monday. The trend is starting to shift, and when this chart pumps it typically corresponds to selling pressure across crypto. DXY closed below support from Friday's push after going overbought on the 13th. RSI cracked below 61.78. A pullback to 98.708 is on the table, which should bring some relief to the euro and yen. The yen is still dangerously overbought - second TBT bearish divergence now printing on the weekly. If it keeps pushing up, the Bank of Japan's hand gets forced. We all know what happened last time that went too far. VIX is still inside the rejection zone it's been in since March 2023. Fear hasn't left the building. S&P futures have a TBO close long on the weekly - same pattern that printed before a 16% drop. NVIDIA's daily cloud is now compressed to under 1%. When the cloud gets that tight, explosive moves follow - not necessarily up. On the picks side: XRP had a real volume spike and an 8.8% move after 4H TBO breakouts, but I'm not convinced the momentum holds. Solana's OBV moving average is genuinely bullish - one more leg is possible. Tron is the biggest surprise - perfect three-in-a-row TBO breakout cluster and a 4% move, which for Tron is wild. HYPE printed a second TBO breakout with RSI at 82.34 - the level to beat is 83.86. Kaspa RSI hit 91.5 after a 9% move - that's danger territory. TAO has been overbought on the daily RSI since March 11th - day eight. OBV is genuinely bullish but the warning signs are piling up. Walrus protocol jumped 24% out of nowhere - probably news related and likely AI adjacent. Pippin is down 31% on Tuesday's close. Pi Network is now down 39% from its high after a textbook RSI divergence setup played out exactly as expected. Bitcoin Cash printed a TBT bearish divergence. Render, Morpho, Fetch AI, Syrup all showing exhaustion signals on the 4H.

Aaron Dishner

16,640 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

I think May and June could be brutal for crypto, and in this video I walk through exactly why I still believe BTC could push all the way down to $38,555 before this bear market leg is done. The core of the argument comes from the crypto calendar and how the last real bottom years behaved, especially when you compare monthly closes with the full wick-to-wick volatility inside those candles. I break down what those historical averages imply for BTC first, then apply the same lens to ETH and the broader market. The important point is not just that monthly closes could be red. It is that the intramonth volatility can get much uglier than the close alone suggests, which is why a move that looks manageable on paper can still feel like a bloodbath in real time. I also zoom out to TOTALES and the smaller-cap market to show how deep the damage could go if the same kind of bear-market behavior repeats. That is where the opportunity comes in too. If this forecast is even directionally right, the next two months could create some of the best accumulation windows of the cycle, but only for people who stay patient, think probabilistically, and avoid pretending projections are guarantees. The biggest takeaway is that this is a forecast, not a certainty. July has historically looked stronger, but I do not treat that as proof the full bottom is in. Right now I am using the best historical data we have to map the downside, prepare for volatility, and think ahead instead of reacting after the damage is already done. Crypto Calendar: Chapters: 00:00 Bitcoin to $38,555 by June? 01:48 BTC May and June historical forecast 03:19 Bitcoin volatility and lower wick projections 06:40 June could be even worse for BTC 10:47 Why this data comes from The Better Traders Club 12:34 Ethereum May and June forecast 15:30 ETH volatility and the $1,000 target 20:02 What TOTALES shows about the whole crypto market 23:29 TOTALES May and June downside projections 27:04 TOTALES vs TOTALLY50 vs TOTALLY100 explained 31:39 TOTALLY50 forecast and mid-cap risk 34:51 TOTALLY100 forecast and smaller-cap risk 36:21 Why July could bring a bounce 37:40 These are projections, not guarantees 40:02 How traders should prepare 41:48 Trading volatility and final thoughts 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken 👉 🥇 Toobit: $15k Bonus 👉 🥈 TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend 👉 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

Aaron Dishner

17,844 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

BITCOIN: UNBELIEVABLE!!!! 🚨🚨🚨 00:00 Intro - BTC still around the 200 WMA 00:12 Tether printing again on TRON - Bullish sign 01:20 TRON chart - Very strong compared to blue chip L2s 02:35 Trump Media now holding 14,319 BTC 03:05 Saylor - sold 108M USD BTC. Buys high sell lows, here's why 04:04 About the Clarity act 04:56 Boy genius Vitalik - A new day a new roadmap, strawmap dot org 06:41 AI - Vitalik Strawmap explained 08:22 Vitalik - ETH will be quantum safe 09:16 ETH chart - Do not touch. Only buy BTC during the bear 10:06 Anthropic buying cloud infrastructure from BTC miners 10:35 Strategy CEO video - We are the central bank of BTC 11:23 The idea of BTC was to remove the central bank 12:20 Imran - SOL leadership supports all founders and ideas 13:15 SOL chart - still bearish. Stay out 13:34 CT consensus - bottom between 45K-60K. Imagine going to 12K. Just DCA 14:26 BTC pls go to moon song - Teaching about 2019 bear market 16:50 Mentally prepare for the bear target - Crazy much lower 17:42 If something bottoms out expect another 70 percent drop 18:08 INTEL news - In bear trend 18:52 Bulmania scanner - bull flip overview 19:09 Use AI to get summary from inspiration tab 20:05 Shout out to Bullmania - Join the waitlist 20:53 AI on CPI news 21:55 OpenAI buying back shares before IPO 22:21 Trump - Strait of Hormuz is open again 22:35 Gold chart - Don't touch . Still in bear trend 23:00 We are humble and just react to the trend 23:49 Hedge funds buying stocks at record level - Greedy 25:20 NVDA CEO now collaborating with banks for financing platform 26:51 Senator Lummis - Fighting for stable coins 27:40 Coinbase video - Clarity Act on Sept 15th 28:57 Biggest Wall Street banks want bill for retirement savings in crypto - video 32:15 Tokenized stocks are not the same as the real stock - Trade them shortterm 34:10 Regulations - Crypto wants CFTC as regulator instead of SEC 36:18 NEAR video - preparing for post quantum future 38:43 Use NEAR for crosschain swap - Not for holding long term imo 41:10 Saylor video - Japanese AI slop 43:16 Imran - new VCs actively deploying in crypto 43:34 Q and A 43:37 Q1: Only weakness of Ivan is being humble? 43:45 Q2: What a great use of AI? 44:28 Best use of AI is Bullmania AI 45:18 About Robinhood weird things - Trenches are here 47:08 Q3: Volume low vs bottom signal? 49:25 Shout out to Bullmania - Sign up for the waitlist 50:10 Q4: Pretend to be a plebe with 10K. How would you play it? 51:57 Q5: Tokenized stocks just launched on HYPE? 54:52 Q6: I think you are wrong on central bank criticism for crypto? 58:31 Outro

Ivan on Tech 🍳📈💰 Head Trader @ Bullmania

19,014 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap

Aaron Dishner

10,593 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$TSLA 🇰🇷 I just drove about 60 kilometers on the second version of FSD V14 Lite (HW3) for Korea — 2026.20.7.5 — and I’d like to share my first impressions. For reference, all of my driving was done at night. The main new features included in this update are: • Ability to disable the brake confirm • FSD statistics (also viewable in the app) • FSD Streaks Unfortunately, the Arrive-at-Destination parking assist option is still not available. • The ability to disable brake confirmation is a small but significant feature. It’s simply removing the need to press and release the brake, but eliminating that one step alone gives me a great sense of satisfaction. Anything that reduces human intervention is something I welcome. • FSD statistics can now be viewed on the car’s center display and in the Tesla app. Because the numbers are presented so clearly and visually, I expect many owners will start trying hard to raise them. - These statistics could be an important indicator showing that this car is autonomous. • FSD Streaks is a nice feature, but unlike the U.S., many people in Korea live in apartments. This means FSD often can’t find a suitable parking spot in complex underground parking lots, so drivers in Korea generally still have to intervene and park manually. As a result, I think it will be quite difficult to achieve high Streak numbers here. That said, it should be much more useful on long-distance trips. - This feature will create even better synergy once destination parking assist is eventually brought to V14 Lite. Overall driving performance felt smoother than before. I performed two U-turns, both of which went smoothly, and lane changes for exits and merges felt like they were initiated earlier than previously. I’m looking forward to seeing how 2026.20.7.5 performs during daytime driving tomorrow. There were a few things I found a bit disappointing, though. “Hurry” mode still doesn’t feel fast or assertive enough for what most Koreans would consider quick and sufficient. I’d like to see the profile apply a slightly higher speed in normal driving conditions. It’s already dawn in Korea, so I have to go to sleep. After a short sleep, I’ll head out on a new drive right away. I feel like I can give you a more positive review. I’m really feeling the big progress in 2026.20.7.5! Thank you for all the work. Tesla AI Ashok Elluswamy Yun-Ta Tsai

Tsla Chan

14,998 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Why we're launching bookshelf speakers My earliest memory of good music was a Pioneer cassette player with two massive wooden speakers we had at home in the 90s. I wore out more cassettes on that setup than I'd like to admit. Those were the days when you could sit with the music, no phone in hand, and just chill. Music has had an incredible run. Cassettes gave way to MP3s. MP3s gave way to streaming. Streaming became lossless. You now have studio-quality sound on your phone. Music has never sounded better. And what about how we listen to music at home? The wooden stereo pair gave way to the big double deck music system, with PMPO claims that could deafen the neighbourhood. Then came the 5.1 home theatre systems, with enough wires to circle the earth. And now, Soundbars. Sleek, minimal, simple. But were they really a step up? Speaking from experience: not really. My 5.1 set has survived two house moves. But it's still in the box. The weekend where I was supposed to set it up never came. My soundbar barely gets switched on. Dialogue is muffled, so I turn it up. Then an explosion hits, and so does the death stare from my wife. Volume down. Switch off. Repeat. Here's the strange part. Ten steps from my living room is my home studio, where I play guitar and make beats as a hobby. Nothing fancy, just a pair of bookshelf speakers on my desk. But on those, a track opens up. I can hear where the vocal sits, the singer's breath before a line, the pick hitting the string, the reverb trailing off into the room. The kind of detail I could never catch on the soundbar in my living room. The difference is physics. Stereo needs two speakers, spaced apart. Cram everything into one bar and you get the volume, but not the feeling. Thankfully, at Lumio we have our fair share of serious audiophiles laurelsudeep, Kaustubh Debnath, Sarthak Sahu and Abhish3k who all felt the same way. So when we decided to get into audio, there wasn't much debate. It had to be Hi-Fi bookshelf speakers. There was just one catch. For most people, bookshelf speakers in the living room meant decision fatigue and endless rabbit holes. Which amp? Which DAC? Which cables? Three YouTube videos later, we're off checking out "best soundbars under 30k". So the real job wasn't just great sound. It was great sound that's as easy to set up as a soundbar. That's Lumio Aura 5. Two wooden speakers. Amp and DAC built in. Connect, plug in, play. No receiver, no rabbit holes. Put them by your TV, on your desk, or just pair your phone. Movie night gets dialogue you can actually follow, with a Cinema mode that brings voices forward. Your playlists get room to breathe, with the vocals in front of you and the instruments spread across the soundstage. And all that lossless music you've been streaming finally gets speakers that can keep up. As our marketing team put it, pun intended : Hi-Fi Sound. Bar None. Aura 5 lands on Amazon India for the Great Indian Festival at ₹24,999, with an early bird price of ₹19,999 Plus bank offers on Amazon.

Kailash

11,402 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

You could spend your Sunday looking through hundreds of charts. I already did. Here are the names, levels, and setups that actually stood out for next week ☺️ The indices are holding up, but underneath the surface the market is getting increasingly selective. Semiconductors are starting to show strength again. Bitcoin is improving. Breadth remains poor, yields are pushing higher, and macro risk is still very much alive. ↘ $MSFT is showing relative strength. ↘ $MU looks like it may be starting a new uptrend. ↘ $META remains one of the strongest charts on the board. Here’s the watchlist and recording: $SPX: Still holding above the daily trendline after last week’s breakout and backtest. Price action itself remains constructive, and as long as that trendline holds I’m cautiously optimistic we can push toward 7775 and eventually the all-time high around 7816. The concern is everything underneath the surface: yields are rising, VIX is elevated, oil remains sensitive to the Middle East, and breadth is poor. The longer SPX stalls here, the more vulnerable it becomes to a move back toward 7500. ⋆ $QQQ: Tested fresh all-time highs last week before pulling back, but buyers stepped back in Thursday and Friday. The structure remains constructive. I’m watching 748 closely. A clean break there could start the next move into new highs. $IWM: Completely different picture from SPX and QQQ. Small caps remain in a clear downtrend and continue riding the 9-day moving average lower. 275 and the 200-day moving average are now must-hold support. Lose that and downside could accelerate. ⋆ Favorites this week: QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, BE, QCOM, COST, MU, PDD, HOOD, COIN, META and MRNA base:0xe4b20925d9e9a62f1e492e15a81dc0de62804dd4: Starting to look much better. After consolidating following the August move, Bitcoin has resumed higher and is showing relative strength. Holding 83K keeps the structure constructive, with 87K–88K next and potentially 100K beyond that. ⋆ $AAPL: Strong Friday close near the highs. As long as 340 holds, I’m looking for a push toward 345. A clean break above 345 could finally trigger the larger continuation move. ⋆ $MSFT: One of the strongest mega-cap charts on Friday. Quickly reclaimed 500 and showed significant relative strength throughout the session. I’m watching 518–520 early this week. Above that could open a move toward new highs, with 533 a logical target. $GOOGL: Attempted to push into new highs but ran directly into the daily trendline and pulled back. It is still holding the 200-day and putting in a higher low, but the price action has been difficult. Hands off until the chart gives us something cleaner. $AMZN: Still trapped in a clear downtrend. Nothing technically compelling here for me right now, so I’d rather focus elsewhere. $NFLX: The previous push toward 85 worked well, but momentum has faded and the stock has been giving that move back. No clean setup here for now. ⋆ $NVDA: Continues threatening a move into new all-time highs but hasn't been able to finish the job. I remain constructive. Above 230 early in the week opens 235, and a break through 235 could finally trigger the move into fresh highs. $TSLA: Friday’s rejection was ugly and once again showed how difficult this stock has been to hold for multiple days. Every burst of strength seems to attract sellers. The 200-day is sitting just below 400, making 400 the key level. Until Tesla reclaims it, I’m treating this mostly as an intraday trading vehicle. ⋆ $AMD: One of the stronger semiconductor charts. Reclaimed 600, backtested it and found buyers almost immediately. That relative strength keeps AMD high on the list if semiconductors continue higher. $SMH: Semiconductors are beginning to improve. SMH reclaimed the 50-day moving average and broke its daily downtrend, which could make the group an important source of leadership again. Worth watching closely this week. ⋆ $BE: Strong close near the highs after catching a bid over several sessions. Still trading inside the larger daily structure, but above 300 I think this could start squeezing and become a much cleaner momentum trade. $DELL: Continues to act extremely well. The next level I’m watching is 572. Above that could start a push toward the all-time-high area, with 600 becoming the obvious psychological target. $SMTC: Showing renewed strength alongside the semiconductor group. If SMH continues improving, this is one of the individual names that could benefit. The setup remains constructive for a potential move back toward the highs. $DDOG: Strong Friday move, but 278–280 remains significant resistance around the prior all-time-high area. A clean break through that zone could give us a quick continuation trade. ⋆ $QCOM: Another semiconductor showing improvement. Friday was strong and 205 becomes the upside trigger. I want to see 200 hold early in the week. Below that I’d step aside, but above 205 this could start moving. $HNGE: Continues trading very mechanically but remains in a constructive trend. Watching 97 for a breakout and potential push toward the psychological 100 level. ⋆ $COST: One of my playbook setups from Friday. Earnings initially gapped the stock lower, but buyers squeezed the shorts and closed it near the highs. I’m watching 925 for continuation, while a backtest into 910–912 could offer another long. Resistance sits around 935. $SKYH: Building a higher low on the daily and beginning to improve. Above 195 would make the setup considerably more interesting. ⋆ $MRNA: Had a strong week after breaking out of its daily structure and remains firmly in play. The key is reclaiming 200. Above that opens 203–205, and a clean break through that area could trigger a much larger continuation move. $SNDK: Still not offering much technically. The larger move I'm interested in doesn't really begin until it can reclaim 2000. Until then, hands off. $JPM: Remains in a strong downtrend and continues riding the 9-day moving average lower. A bounce toward 346 could actually offer a cleaner downside setup rather than a long. $GS: Similar picture to JPM. Broke the 200-day moving average and continues trending lower beneath the 9-day. Watching around 946 for a potential short if sellers continue controlling the tape. $ARM: Pulled back after testing 340. The more interesting area for me is around 300, which lines up with the top of its previous range. A clean backtest and hold there could create an attractive dip-buy setup. $MRVL: Starting to improve after breaking higher and consolidating. Watching the 267–270 area. A clean move through there could turn this into another semiconductor continuation setup. $BA: Continues looking weak after spending several sessions around 200. As long as it remains below 200–205, I’m looking at pops as potential shorts. 187–185 could become the next downside area. ⋆ $MU: One of my top watches this week. The chart looks like it is beginning a new uptrend after breaking its downtrend, successfully backtesting it and reclaiming all the important moving averages. The 9, 20 and 50-day are now stacked correctly. Above 1100 could spark a larger move toward 1250+. $IBM: Looking tired and setting up as a potential downside continuation trade. Below 225 could open 215–216, and if weakness persists, 200 eventually comes into play. ⋆ $PDD: Chinese stocks remain weak and PDD is the downside setup I like best within the group. Watching 77. A break below could open a move toward 72. ⋆ $HOOD: Still holding up relatively well, especially with Bitcoin improving. Watching 120 for a recovery. This is a close watch for me, and if crypto remains strong, it could become one of the better Bitcoin-adjacent setups. $PLTR: Strong week and still very much in play. I want to see the prior all-time-high area around 188–190 hold. If it does, another weekly continuation could create a squeeze toward 200 and eventually 207. $MSTR: Looking tired despite Bitcoin improving. There are cleaner crypto-related setups elsewhere for now. $RDDT: Potential downside setup developing. Around 144 could either become a bounce area or, if that trendline breaks, open a much larger move lower toward 115. ⋆ $COIN: Consolidating constructively after reclaiming the 200-day moving average. I'm watching for a move back above 200. If Bitcoin remains strong, I think this could become one of the cleaner crypto-related trades this week. $NBIS: Has struggled repeatedly with its downtrend line but is finally trading back above it. The backtest held, which is constructive. As long as it stays above that breakout area, I think another push higher remains possible. $NET: Continues to be one of the strongest software charts. It has been riding the 9-day moving average beautifully throughout the uptrend. A pullback toward 340, or even 330–335, could offer an attractive long if buyers continue defending the trend. $CRWD: Similar story to NET. Still one of the software leaders. A backtest of 250 that holds could create another clean continuation setup. ⋆ $META: One of my top watches this week. It printed an inside day while remaining one of the market’s strongest leaders. 745–746 is the first key level, but the bigger trigger is 770. Above 770 opens the recent highs, and above 780 could start a move toward 800+. $INTC: Another semiconductor worth watching as the group improves. 127–128 is the key breakout area. $OKTA: Pulling back into the 9-day moving average after a strong run. Watching 195 to see if buyers defend the trend. A hold could create another upside setup. $ZS: The previous uptrend has clearly weakened after losing the 9-day moving average. A recovery of 200–202 and the 9-day could spark a bounce back higher. Otherwise, the trend shift remains intact. Overall theme: The indices continue to hold up, but this remains a very selective market. SPX and QQQ are close enough to their highs that another breakout is absolutely possible, while IWM continues to deteriorate. Semiconductors are starting to improve again, Bitcoin is showing strength, and a handful of software and mega-cap names continue carrying the tape. At the same time, breadth remains poor, yields are pushing higher, VIX is elevated and geopolitical risk remains very real. I remain cautiously optimistic, but this is still a market where stock selection matters more than simply being long. ⋆ Favorites this week: QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, BE, QCOM, COST, MU, PDD, HOOD, COIN, META and MRNA Also, I’m restarting the Small Account Challenge with $10,000 this week. I’ll be trading options directly from my playbook, explaining the setups and posting the trades as we go.

spacemonkey

18,817 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

141,052 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

BONNIE LEVEL UP #22ndBonnieBDparty 🦊: What am I supposed to do? 🎤: Give her a birthday blessing. 🐰: Oh! Is your nose running? 🦊: For real? 🐰: You're crying? (wipes Emi's nose) Are you crying? Is it tears? Are you crying? 🦊: (wipes her eyes) 🐰: That's a big piece of eye gunk~ 🦊: (wipes Bonnie's eyes) 🎤: This is a bickering kind of love, right? 🦊: What am I supposed to say? 🐰: ☺️ 🐰: Is it real? 🦊: It's a fan 😆 🦊: What is that? The fan thing. 🐰: A fan, like when they wrap those new year lucky draw presents. 🦊: You'll have to open it to see. It's exactly like it. 🐰: Or is Any hidden in there?? 🦊: It might be too small 😆 🐰: It might not fit her. 🦊: Do you want to open it? 🐰: I do!! 🦊: It's exactly like it. 🐰: Really? 🦊: Almost exactly like it, but it's the one that's the closest to it. 🐰: Lemme see~ how do I open it? 🦊: Here here, you can open it yourself. 🐰: (starts opening it) 🐰: When did you buy it? 🦊: When did I buy it? 🦊: (helps Bonnie open it) 🎤: The vibe is like opening up the back of a truck to sell things. 🐰: (opens it) 🐰: 😭 🦊: It's exactly like it. It's even got the pearly design here. 🐰: 😭 🦊: Isn't it just like it? 🐰: 😭 🦊: It's really like it. I had to go to so many shops before I could find it. 🐰: How many shops did you go to? 🦊: So many. It's really like it. 🐰: Where did you buy it from? 🦊: Do you want to hold it? 🐰: I'm going to bring it to the concert. It'll definitely be at the Love Session. 🐰: (admiring the guitar) 🦊: Do you like it? 🐰: 🙂‍↕️ 🐰: My mic disappeared. 🦊: Her mic disappeared, where'd it go? 😆 🐰: My face is all gone now. I love it more than anything in the world. 🦊: Is it pretty? 🐰: It is. 🦊: It's really beautiful. The first time I saw it, I was like, this is the one. 🐰: It's beautiful. 🦊: Will you play it? 🐰: I will. I love it so much, I'm going to keep it till the day I die. 🦊: Yeah, guitars are things that, when ppl move homes, they'll bring their guitars with them. 🐰: What do you mean by moving? 🦊: As in, usually, guitars are things that ppl will bring with them even when they move homes. 🐰: Yeah. I'll bring it out with me. 🦊: You'll bring it out with you? 😆 🐰: I'll bring it to Central World, I'll walk and buy sweets with it. 🦊: It's heavy. 🐰: Oh, it's heavy. That's so sweet. 🦊: It really suits you. No one bought the same thing, right? 🐰: No, you're the only one I told. 🦊: The whole world knows now! 🐰: Oh yeah, they put it in (the Love Session BTS video). 🦊: 😆 🐰: They put it in the video. How come you're so sweet? 🦊: Do you want to try playing it? 🎤: Do you want to try playing? Will we see this guitar on stage on 7 March (EmiBonnie Love Session). 🦊: You can see it, but it doesn't have an amp, bc I had to choose between it having an amp or not having an amp. If it's a classic guitar with real wood, they don't really have amps apparently. That's what they said. 🎤: Do you want to give it a try? 🐰: No, I'm shy. Let me practice first. 🦊: Try listening to the sound. It's already been tuned. 🐰: (tries playing it) 🦊: Has it been tuned? Is this already tuned? 🐰: Yeah ☺️ 🐰: (hugs the guitar) 🐰: I'm going to hug it to sleep tonight. 🦊: You're going to hug it to sleep 😆 🎤: She's going to hug it to sleep 😆 🦊: It's so beautiful. It suits Bonnie the most. 🐰: (hugs the guitar) 🐰: When did you buy it? You had the time? 🦊: I did, I did. 🐰: When? We're together all the time, when'd you go? 🗣️: (screaming) 🦊: For this, of course I had time. 🐰: A spy. 🦊: Is it beautiful? 🐰: It's beautiful. Which shop did you buy it from? Does anyone know? 🦊: Are you going to buy another one or what? 😆 🐰: No, I'm not going to buy another one, this is the only one I want. 🎤: Everyone must want to take photos of the two of them with the guitar. You can stand next to the table with the cake. 🦊🐰: (being sweet with each other while everyone takes photos) 🦊: Which camera? 🎤: All the cameras. 🐰: Pls Meitu, edit the photos for me.

K-bab

73,138 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Yeah, Ordinals and Runes are back, and guess what? Shill_raton is back too, lmao. 🔥 Runes-Fudders punching the air right now. 😡 SO WHICH RUNES TO BUY ?!?!? FOMO!??! If you read my TOKEN2049 post a few days ago, you’d have seen it was a perfect indicator and buying opportunity. (especially the mentioned ones: Billy Cat, DOG and Pizza Ninjas) Ofc, we’re not fully back yet—just a small light shining on us. It’s still early days, but we were really down bad, and any Runes shill tweet over the past weeks was pure hopium. No surprise that 90% of the Runes collections didn’t survive the post-capitulation phase. But to those that did—congrats! So, what’s the plan? If you held top Runes through capitulation? Awesome, keep holding. You’ve already endured the worst, haven’t you? If you're looking to stack top Runes? Be cautious, but go for it. Just make sure you’re picking the ones that are getting the most attention/volume/engagement or are about to. Otherwise: STAY LIQUID. New Runes are going to pop up very soon, with strong teams and high quality. Be ready to mint when they hit, but cautiously. If you lock your liquidity, you will just fud and cope about new RUNES success. These new Runes will have it much easier to grab attention. I met several teams at TOKEN2049 who have been preparing for this trend switch for months. Top Ordinals collections should be in for a feast soon, too. Hold onto them. My call to everyone: Work for your bags. Shill like a siren. The Ordinals/Runes space is small, and our voices are tiny in this tight-knit BTC village. Support each other’s tweets (RT/like/comment), multiply attention, and stop the PVP nonsense—it’s outdated and simply stupid at this point. Quick TL;DR on the top Runes: (in no specific bag order, but you know my favs eitherway) - DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON BTC classic meme, #3 etched Rune. Finally, more shillers than just Leonidas 🧡 $DOG. Best shot at leading the new run and hitting a 1 BLN market cap, and potentially getting a T1 CEX listing. - BILLION•DOLLAR•CAT Billy 🐱 Best branding, content and marketing, most visible at IRL events. Strong bounce last week, and community support is still amazing. - PUPS•WORLD•PEACE Pups 🌎☮️ BTC OG meme, known also on SOL, now bridged to SOL (again - potentially more liquid this way). Far from ATH but has a dedicated community. - RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE Runecoin ▣⛏️ A key pre-Runes project. The team’s been quiet (AGAIN) for weeks, and hopium is VERY low. If they don’t act now, it could be joever. - WADDLE•WADDLE•PENGU Waddle Waddle Pengu Simple, normie-friendly, wholesome, with a strong leader Cold Blooded Shiller (one of the best crypto-traders and partnership hunters) - LOBO•THE•WOLF•PUP LOBO•THE•WOLF•PUP A beta DOG play with VC money (not a bad thing lol) backing it - DECENTRALIZED ⚡️DECENTRALIZED Community Take Over (CTO); #2 etched Rune. Needs way more community unification stronger leadership to break out. - WANKO•MANKO•RUNES WankoManko OG Runes and very unique Furry-meme, practically created by Casey himself. Only Rune soft-shilled by him (and Erin). Dropped heavily from ATH, but the team is strong and working closely with AI tech ( , BOOTOSHI 👑 ) - SATOSHI•NAKAMOTO Strong ticker, but no known team. Premine still sitting in their wallet and burned a lot of people post-halving. - LIQUIDIUM•TOKEN Liquidium.Fi | Cross-Chain Loans Utility Rune, down significantly from release and investor seed round (70m valuation). Still one of the best DeFi platforms on Bitcoin. - EPIC•EPIC•EPIC•EPIC Rune etched on the EPIC sat. Rare sats aren’t getting much attention from degens right now. - SAIKO•HAMSTER Saiko Hamster Psychopath cute hamster. Still active and never gave up, with a decent narrative. Hinting on a based ordinals collectin. - CATS•IN•THE•SATS Cats•In•The•Sats Before Billy, this was the #1 cat. Still going strong, with the team as active as day one. - ZBIT•BLUE•BITCOIN MACHINES Gaming utility Rune with a dedicated team, but gaming in web3 isn’t really bullish at the moment. - Z•Z•Z•Z•Z•FEHU•Z•Z•Z•Z•Z Fehu Rune #1 etched. The owner holds multiple K Bitcoin since 2010. Probably just a fun experiment, without a clear execution plan (last heard: casino). - THE•DONALD•TRUMP Donald Trump Rune Best Trump Rune Ticker. Struggling to catch up lately, heavily dependent on IRL Trump action. - MR•YEN•JAPANESE•BUSINESSMAN Mr Yen First PG-friendly, non-animal Rune with its own lore and (video) style. He still loves his son (which should be enough, right?). - SPARKY•RUNEDOG Sparky Pokemon-like Rune. Hardworking team, constantly announcing partnerships, products, and more. - BASED•INTERNET•PANDA BIP 熊猫 Another cute animal, similar to Saiko Hamster. - GOB•IS•GOB•IS•GOB GOB ◨ ◨ Rune with gamified systems. - BAMK•OF•NAKAMOTO•DOLLAR BAMK•OF•NAKAMOTO•DOLLAR Runes stablecoin. - ALETHEIAS•AGORA @AletheiasAgora Polymarket of Bitcoin. - RSM•RUNES•STATE•MACHINE Programmable Runes experiment. There are more out there, but these are the most well-known. Hold, pick, and shill your Runes wisely. Stay liquid. New Runes are coming, and they’ll be profitable too

shin

10,865 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren