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$BTC REALIZED PRICE CHECK: STH Realized: $74K → completed Realized: $53.6K → not touched. LTH Realized: $50K → untouched. Every prior cycle bottom traded BELOW the Realized Price. Every major flush kissed the LTH line. We haven't been there yet.

74,510 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 BELOW $58K EVERYONE LOSES CONVICTION. THAT'S EXACTLY WHEN YOU SHOULD BUY. Nine years of trading crypto, never seen sentiment this confused. Half the market thinks the bottom is already in. The other 40% are waiting for $30K. Both sides are going to be wrong. Here's what actually happens at real bottoms. Nobody buys them. Not because the price isn't right because the feeling isn't right. $16K was the most obvious Bitcoin entry of the last cycle. Everyone in crypto knew it, almost nobody pulled the trigger. They were waiting for $10K. For a cleaner number, for more certainty. The certainty never came, the price left without them. That's how bottoms form. Not with a capitulation wick that everyone catches perfectly. With a slow grind that exhausts everyone until the buyers who are left are the ones who stopped trying to time it perfectly. Here's the base case. Summer ranging, slow bleed toward $50K. Then one final flush to around $42K just enough to convince everyone that the $30K target is finally coming. It won't come. Same as last cycle, same as the cycle before. When 50% think the bottom is in and 40% are waiting for $30K to $40K that's not a bottom sentiment reading. That's a market that hasn't fully capitulated yet Too many people still have a plan, real bottoms don't let you have a plan. But here's what most people miss. Waiting for perfect is how you end up not buying at all, $50K with conviction beats waiting for $30K that never arrives and watching it run to $240K from the sidelines. Already bought 30% here. DCA planned at $58K, $55K, $52K, heaviest allocation at $42K if it gets there. I called the $126K top exactly. Every major turn for 7 years on the record. Follow now and turn on notifications.

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

73,193 次观看 • 16 天前

I spent 6 months studying Polymarket. Yesterday I realized I was playing chess against people who know my moves in advance. It all started with a simple question: why are some wallets consistently in profit and I'm not? I read the same news. Watched the same debates. Analyzed the same statistics. But they entered the market hours before the news became news. I found a cluster of 12 wallets. They share one thing: they buy when the price hasn't moved yet. And sell when the crowd is just starting to enter. One of them started with $288. Now the account has $666K. No loud trades. No screenshots all over Twitter. Just methodical work. Entry after entry. Week after week. I scrolled through his history and didn't find a single heroic trade. Not one bet that made half the profit. The capital curve is almost a straight line up. While everyone is looking for one trade that will change their life this wallet quietly collects bit by bit. And bit by bit turned into $666K. I started breaking down where they get their information. And realized: they don't predict. They're just closer to the source. Three levels of the food chain on Polymarket: First circle. People who know the journalist personally. Know the article comes out tomorrow morning. Position opened tonight. Second circle. People who see the first circle's activity. Notice that large wallets started moving. Enter right behind. Still before the news. Third circle. You. Read the headline on Twitter. Open Polymarket. Price already moved 40%. Think maybe it'll go higher. Buy at the peak. Guess who's selling you that position? The first two circles. Platform statistics: 84% of traders lose money. That money doesn't disappear. It flows to the remaining 16%. I spent six months trying to get into that 16% through analysis and research. Then I looked at my P&L. And realized the obvious: I will never be in the first circle. I don't have journalist friends. No sources in candidate teams. No insider info. But I can be in the second. You don't need to know what will happen. You need to see who already started moving. Their wallets are public. Their positions are visible to everyone. Their entries can be tracked in real time and copied automatically → Copy the winners: They spend years building connections. You spend seconds copying their trade. They risk reputation and money. You only risk time on setup. I deleted all my indicators. Closed all news tabs. Stopped watching debates. Now I only watch one thing: where the wallets that don't lose are moving. On this market there are two places: Either you're the liquidity being drained. Or you're the shadow of the one draining. Stop being the third circle.

Blaze

11,624 次观看 • 5 个月前

“Everyone wants to win — until they realize how many losses it takes.” October has been one of the toughest months for me (and likely for some of you), especially when comparing LoD stops based sizing swing traders vs. % stops based sizing position traders. I’ve had 16 straight losses — but each one was small, contained, and the streak was fully within the expected variance range of a 30% win rate. While it can be challenging for some of us, the key to navigating this, both mentally and emotionally, lies in accepting uncertainty through predefined risk management, where every trade has a clearly defined pain threshold. Your dollar-value tolerance should never trigger emotional reactions or push you off your intended plan. By acknowledging that losses are part of the process, we enter each trade with humility — assuming we may be wrong until proven right. The market must prove and continue to prove the validity of our thesis. Start small, and let your risk grow only as your consistency and performance justify it. I always advocate using a fixed % risk relative to your latest net realized equity. Don’t increase risk just because you’ve had a few good trades — risk should only expand when it’s truly earned from realized profitable performance. Avoid the illusion that everyone wins in trading. The real objective is not just to make gains, but to preserve them. True risk management goes far beyond setting stop losses — it means being proactive enough to cut size when the market proves you wrong. In the end, the trader who manages losses best will always outlast the rest. “The best loser is the long-term winner.” - Phantom of the Pit

Jeff Sun, CFTe

109,311 次观看 • 8 个月前