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$BTC SUPPLY SHOCK TALK IS BACK. Adam Back is getting clipped for a $1M Bitcoin call, while traders point to exchange balances at new lows. If supply keeps tightening, BTC doesn’t need much demand to move hard 🚀

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CryptosRus

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17,890 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:
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What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

103,761 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.
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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.

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61,557 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

RAOUL PAL: BITCOIN IS DEEPLY DISCOUNTED Raoul Pal says based on global liquidity and how Nasdaq has tracked, #Bitcoin should be closer to $160,000 right now. That gap, in his view, is the liquidity discount $BTC is trading at. He calls this a technical year -- not a demand problem, but a timing one. According to the model, the finish should’ve been much stronger. If liquidity keeps doing what it’s been doing, that gap doesn’t stay open forever.
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RAOUL PAL: BITCOIN IS DEEPLY DISCOUNTED Raoul Pal says based on global liquidity and how Nasdaq has tracked, #Bitcoin should be closer to $160,000 right now. That gap, in his view, is the liquidity discount $BTC is trading at. He calls this a technical year -- not a demand problem, but a timing one. According to the model, the finish should’ve been much stronger. If liquidity keeps doing what it’s been doing, that gap doesn’t stay open forever.

CryptosRus

111,233 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.
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🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

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54,294 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

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What’s next for Bitcoin? 🤔 The blue prediction zone on the 7D BTC chart is the main area to watch. After rejecting from the recent Pipe Top near $65.4K, Bitcoin pulled back toward the $63.3K support area. From there, the AI Trading Assistant’s projected zone suggests BTC could attempt a gradual recovery back toward the mid-$64K range if support continues to hold. That makes the current setup fairly clear. BTC support: around $63.3K Prediction zone: mid-$64K recovery range Resistance: around $65.4K The prediction zone doesn’t point to an aggressive breakout yet. It suggests Bitcoin may be trying to stabilize after the recent pullback and rebuild momentum step by step. If BTC holds near $63.3K, the short-term structure remains more constructive. Traders can then watch whether price continues moving inside or near the blue zone as confirmation that the recovery path is still intact. If BTC loses that support and fails to reclaim it quickly, the setup weakens and the projected recovery path becomes less reliable. The Pipe Top near $65.4K remains the bigger test. BTC already pushed into that area once and reversed sharply, so reclaiming it with stronger follow-through would be the point where the chart starts to look healthier. This is where the AI Trading Assistant helps traders move from scattered data to structured market analysis. Instead of checking price action, patterns, timeframe context, and related market updates separately, traders can review the full setup in one workspace. The tool highlights detected formations, adapts analysis to the selected timeframe, and gives users a projected price zone they can compare against live movement. For BTC right now, the question is simple: Can Bitcoin hold support and follow the blue prediction zone higher? Explore the AI Trading Assistant in AI Hub V2:
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What’s next for Bitcoin? 🤔 The blue prediction zone on the 7D BTC chart is the main area to watch. After rejecting from the recent Pipe Top near $65.4K, Bitcoin pulled back toward the $63.3K support area. From there, the AI Trading Assistant’s projected zone suggests BTC could attempt a gradual recovery back toward the mid-$64K range if support continues to hold. That makes the current setup fairly clear. BTC support: around $63.3K Prediction zone: mid-$64K recovery range Resistance: around $65.4K The prediction zone doesn’t point to an aggressive breakout yet. It suggests Bitcoin may be trying to stabilize after the recent pullback and rebuild momentum step by step. If BTC holds near $63.3K, the short-term structure remains more constructive. Traders can then watch whether price continues moving inside or near the blue zone as confirmation that the recovery path is still intact. If BTC loses that support and fails to reclaim it quickly, the setup weakens and the projected recovery path becomes less reliable. The Pipe Top near $65.4K remains the bigger test. BTC already pushed into that area once and reversed sharply, so reclaiming it with stronger follow-through would be the point where the chart starts to look healthier. This is where the AI Trading Assistant helps traders move from scattered data to structured market analysis. Instead of checking price action, patterns, timeframe context, and related market updates separately, traders can review the full setup in one workspace. The tool highlights detected formations, adapts analysis to the selected timeframe, and gives users a projected price zone they can compare against live movement. For BTC right now, the question is simple: Can Bitcoin hold support and follow the blue prediction zone higher? Explore the AI Trading Assistant in AI Hub V2:

ChainGPT

36,002 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

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🚨BULLISH: CIRCULATING SUPPLY OF $XRP IS SMALLER THAN YOU THINK Analyst Versan Aljarrah of Black Swan Capitalist argues $XRP's true circulating supply is far smaller than most realize, and global settlement adoption would shrink it further. Once escrow, institutional reserves, and tokens locked in active payment rails are removed, available float drops significantly. With 6 spot ETFs live, $1.4B in institutional inflows, exchange balances falling, and the SEC case resolved, demand pressure is building fast. If banks adopt XRP at scale for cross-border settlement, basic supply-demand math points to major price discovery ahead.

BSCN

44,575 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.
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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,262 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

$BTC is at $61,000 and you're about to hit buy. Wait sixty seconds: • $250,000 on Coinbase buys you roughly 4 BTC and the tax bill shows up later when you sell. • $250,000 into S21 XP miners hosted at $0.07/kWh is a different move. You deduct the full amount against your income this year under Section 179. Your ASICs start producing Bitcoin into your wallet from day one and over 24 months you're looking at 4+ BTC, KYC-free, mined below spot. The hardware keeps running in year 3, year 4, year 5. We're watching the same price. But the investors who set up their ASICs at cycle lows are the ones who look back and understand why the entry point mattered less than the structure they used to accumulate Bitcoin. Same capital. Very different outcome.
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$BTC is at $61,000 and you're about to hit buy. Wait sixty seconds: • $250,000 on Coinbase buys you roughly 4 BTC and the tax bill shows up later when you sell. • $250,000 into S21 XP miners hosted at $0.07/kWh is a different move. You deduct the full amount against your income this year under Section 179. Your ASICs start producing Bitcoin into your wallet from day one and over 24 months you're looking at 4+ BTC, KYC-free, mined below spot. The hardware keeps running in year 3, year 4, year 5. We're watching the same price. But the investors who set up their ASICs at cycle lows are the ones who look back and understand why the entry point mattered less than the structure they used to accumulate Bitcoin. Same capital. Very different outcome.

Simple Mining

266,233 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

- you call a Bitcoin holder in Washington - pretend to be exchange security - say the account is compromised - ask for verification - get the credentials - get the seed - move everything - 4,100 BTC ~$243,000,000 at the time - 28+ exotic cars - Pagani, Ferrari, Lamborghini - watches worth $500k - Birkin bags in nightclubs - friends call you “Malone” in Discord - arresteded in Miami - but thanks to NEON now people knows you still have a phone Insane story
0:19

- you call a Bitcoin holder in Washington - pretend to be exchange security - say the account is compromised - ask for verification - get the credentials - get the seed - move everything - 4,100 BTC ~$243,000,000 at the time - 28+ exotic cars - Pagani, Ferrari, Lamborghini - watches worth $500k - Birkin bags in nightclubs - friends call you “Malone” in Discord - arresteded in Miami - but thanks to NEON now people knows you still have a phone Insane story

StarPlatinum

322,361 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Metaplanet just bought its way to 43,000 Bitcoin The Japanese firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2, spending about $222M at an average price near $78,700 per $BTC, funded through credit facility borrowing and bond issuance rather than new share dilution. Total holdings are now valued around $2.53B at current prices. But the company's overall average cost across its full stack sits near $94,900 per BTC, well above where Bitcoin is trading today near $61,000. That gap is showing up in the stock too. Metaplanet's mNAV, the ratio of market value to actual Bitcoin holdings, recently dipped to about 0.92x. CEO Simon Gerovich (Simon Gerovich) says the firm will consider share buybacks if that discount to net asset value persists. Long-term target: 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, roughly 210,000 BTC. The current stack puts Metaplanet Inc. about a fifth of the way there.
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Metaplanet just bought its way to 43,000 Bitcoin The Japanese firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2, spending about $222M at an average price near $78,700 per $BTC, funded through credit facility borrowing and bond issuance rather than new share dilution. Total holdings are now valued around $2.53B at current prices. But the company's overall average cost across its full stack sits near $94,900 per BTC, well above where Bitcoin is trading today near $61,000. That gap is showing up in the stock too. Metaplanet's mNAV, the ratio of market value to actual Bitcoin holdings, recently dipped to about 0.92x. CEO Simon Gerovich (Simon Gerovich) says the firm will consider share buybacks if that discount to net asset value persists. Long-term target: 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, roughly 210,000 BTC. The current stack puts Metaplanet Inc. about a fifth of the way there.

BSCN

12,572 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.
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🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

Hanzo ㊗️

285,705 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:
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🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Bitcoin just filled the CME gap at $78,000. Nothing left below. That part is done. The only unfilled gap now is around $82,000. Which means the next move should bring us up to it. The next move should bring $BTC straight into that zone. Everyone will call it a breakout. Everyone will think the bull market is back. But I already told you what comes after. This move is not the end. It’s the setup before bulls get trapped. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
0:11

Bitcoin just filled the CME gap at $78,000. Nothing left below. That part is done. The only unfilled gap now is around $82,000. Which means the next move should bring us up to it. The next move should bring $BTC straight into that zone. Everyone will call it a breakout. Everyone will think the bull market is back. But I already told you what comes after. This move is not the end. It’s the setup before bulls get trapped. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

DANNY

141,250 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

We’re thrilled to announce that Bitcoin is now finally live on our cross-chain bridge, Router Nitro! Try it out: With this integration, you can now: - Swap any asset from the Ethereum chain to BTC on the Bitcoin network - Swap BTC from the Bitcoin network to WBTC on the Ethereum chain Experience unmatched speed and cost-efficiency—all in a fully decentralized, trustless way with no custodians involved! Getting started is simple: - You can use any EVM-compatible wallet when you’re going from Ethereum to Bitcoin - When going from Bitcoin to Ethereum, to have a smooth and easy experience you will need XDEFI wallet! Our roadmap includes adding more chains, wallets, and assets to support Bitcoin bridging. Besides, Router is developing a solution to enable users to seamlessly transfer BTC from Bitcoin to any token on other chains. In upcoming upgrades, users will be able to buy any token they want using Bitcoin. Bitcoin holds unmatched stability and liquidity in the crypto world and with this integration, Router Nitro empowers users, platforms, and developers to access Bitcoin’s liquidity across DeFi, dApps, and more—all while preserving Bitcoin’s core values. Embrace the power of BTC and start exploring Router Nitro’s new Bitcoin connectivity!
0:17

We’re thrilled to announce that Bitcoin is now finally live on our cross-chain bridge, Router Nitro! Try it out: With this integration, you can now: - Swap any asset from the Ethereum chain to BTC on the Bitcoin network - Swap BTC from the Bitcoin network to WBTC on the Ethereum chain Experience unmatched speed and cost-efficiency—all in a fully decentralized, trustless way with no custodians involved! Getting started is simple: - You can use any EVM-compatible wallet when you’re going from Ethereum to Bitcoin - When going from Bitcoin to Ethereum, to have a smooth and easy experience you will need XDEFI wallet! Our roadmap includes adding more chains, wallets, and assets to support Bitcoin bridging. Besides, Router is developing a solution to enable users to seamlessly transfer BTC from Bitcoin to any token on other chains. In upcoming upgrades, users will be able to buy any token they want using Bitcoin. Bitcoin holds unmatched stability and liquidity in the crypto world and with this integration, Router Nitro empowers users, platforms, and developers to access Bitcoin’s liquidity across DeFi, dApps, and more—all while preserving Bitcoin’s core values. Embrace the power of BTC and start exploring Router Nitro’s new Bitcoin connectivity!

Router Protocol

84,347 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚀METAPLANET MEGA EXPLOSION🚀 Alright, kids. Time to dust off the bullishness. These sad sack models SUCK. Bitcoin is going to become to global monetary base and Metaplanet is poised to take incredible advantage of that situation :) ASSUMPTIONS: BITCOIN GOES TO $600,000 BY JULY 2030. $50 MILLION PER MONTH ISSUED IN PREFS AT 5% DIVIDEND RATE. mNAV GOES TO 2.0. At $600.00K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 58,246 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 3,999 CEBE Sats Yield: 11.0% annualized Ending implied stock price: $47.99 Total return vs today: 2,937% Metaplanet only ends with 58,246 Bitcoin. LOL. But the stock 30x's from here. $48 MPJPY. A 30x for Metaplanet versus a 9.3x for Bitcoin. THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY WILL REACH ETERNAL GLORY:
0:19

🚀METAPLANET MEGA EXPLOSION🚀 Alright, kids. Time to dust off the bullishness. These sad sack models SUCK. Bitcoin is going to become to global monetary base and Metaplanet is poised to take incredible advantage of that situation :) ASSUMPTIONS: BITCOIN GOES TO $600,000 BY JULY 2030. $50 MILLION PER MONTH ISSUED IN PREFS AT 5% DIVIDEND RATE. mNAV GOES TO 2.0. At $600.00K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 58,246 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 3,999 CEBE Sats Yield: 11.0% annualized Ending implied stock price: $47.99 Total return vs today: 2,937% Metaplanet only ends with 58,246 Bitcoin. LOL. But the stock 30x's from here. $48 MPJPY. A 30x for Metaplanet versus a 9.3x for Bitcoin. THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY WILL REACH ETERNAL GLORY:

Adam Livingston

72,096 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen