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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one...

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Adam Livingston

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61,590 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is ~3.5x outperformance of Bitcoin over a decade. Realistically, it's my opinion that BTC Yield as well as BTC CAGR will be a lot higher in the earlier years. If Bitcoin rips to $150,000-$200,000 this year, ASST is going to MELT FACES.
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Bitcoin vs. Strive (ASST) - 10 Years Model: BTC 25% CAGR, Strive maintains their current level of 37% amplification and has 10% BTC Yield per year. $0.83 cents into each starting today, your Bitcoin investment will be $7.73 and your ASST buy will be worth $27. That is is ~3.5x outperformance of Bitcoin over a decade. Realistically, it's my opinion that BTC Yield as well as BTC CAGR will be a lot higher in the earlier years. If Bitcoin rips to $150,000-$200,000 this year, ASST is going to MELT FACES.

Adam Livingston

45,254 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:
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🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:
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What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

104,041 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.
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Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Adam Livingston

132,040 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.
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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,286 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.
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🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,471 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.
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🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.

Hanzo ㊗️

285,705 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:
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HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:

Adam Livingston

33,368 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY
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🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

Adam Livingston

30,335 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Metaplanet just bought its way to 43,000 Bitcoin The Japanese firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2, spending about $222M at an average price near $78,700 per $BTC, funded through credit facility borrowing and bond issuance rather than new share dilution. Total holdings are now valued around $2.53B at current prices. But the company's overall average cost across its full stack sits near $94,900 per BTC, well above where Bitcoin is trading today near $61,000. That gap is showing up in the stock too. Metaplanet's mNAV, the ratio of market value to actual Bitcoin holdings, recently dipped to about 0.92x. CEO Simon Gerovich (Simon Gerovich) says the firm will consider share buybacks if that discount to net asset value persists. Long-term target: 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, roughly 210,000 BTC. The current stack puts Metaplanet Inc. about a fifth of the way there.
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Metaplanet just bought its way to 43,000 Bitcoin The Japanese firm added 2,823 BTC in Q2, spending about $222M at an average price near $78,700 per $BTC, funded through credit facility borrowing and bond issuance rather than new share dilution. Total holdings are now valued around $2.53B at current prices. But the company's overall average cost across its full stack sits near $94,900 per BTC, well above where Bitcoin is trading today near $61,000. That gap is showing up in the stock too. Metaplanet's mNAV, the ratio of market value to actual Bitcoin holdings, recently dipped to about 0.92x. CEO Simon Gerovich (Simon Gerovich) says the firm will consider share buybacks if that discount to net asset value persists. Long-term target: 1% of Bitcoin's total supply, roughly 210,000 BTC. The current stack puts Metaplanet Inc. about a fifth of the way there.

BSCN

12,572 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚀METAPLANET MEGA EXPLOSION🚀 Alright, kids. Time to dust off the bullishness. These sad sack models SUCK. Bitcoin is going to become to global monetary base and Metaplanet is poised to take incredible advantage of that situation :) ASSUMPTIONS: BITCOIN GOES TO $600,000 BY JULY 2030. $50 MILLION PER MONTH ISSUED IN PREFS AT 5% DIVIDEND RATE. mNAV GOES TO 2.0. At $600.00K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 58,246 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 3,999 CEBE Sats Yield: 11.0% annualized Ending implied stock price: $47.99 Total return vs today: 2,937% Metaplanet only ends with 58,246 Bitcoin. LOL. But the stock 30x's from here. $48 MPJPY. A 30x for Metaplanet versus a 9.3x for Bitcoin. THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY WILL REACH ETERNAL GLORY:
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🚀METAPLANET MEGA EXPLOSION🚀 Alright, kids. Time to dust off the bullishness. These sad sack models SUCK. Bitcoin is going to become to global monetary base and Metaplanet is poised to take incredible advantage of that situation :) ASSUMPTIONS: BITCOIN GOES TO $600,000 BY JULY 2030. $50 MILLION PER MONTH ISSUED IN PREFS AT 5% DIVIDEND RATE. mNAV GOES TO 2.0. At $600.00K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 58,246 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 3,999 CEBE Sats Yield: 11.0% annualized Ending implied stock price: $47.99 Total return vs today: 2,937% Metaplanet only ends with 58,246 Bitcoin. LOL. But the stock 30x's from here. $48 MPJPY. A 30x for Metaplanet versus a 9.3x for Bitcoin. THE JAPANESE HOTEL COMPANY WILL REACH ETERNAL GLORY:

Adam Livingston

72,142 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.
0:11

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.

EndGame Macro

33,374 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

BITCOIN VS. THE S&P 500 - THE NEXT 10 YEARS There is a lot of talk and crying about how Bitcoin has diminishing returns and it's not worth the volatility. And to that I say: LOL. Since January 1st, 2020: Bitcoin CAGR: 44% Bitcoin Vol: 60% SPY CAGR: 14% SPY Vol: 20% Bitcoin gave you roughly 3x the volatility but slightly more than 3x the compound growth rate. Now lets walk forward a decade, SEVERELY HANDICAPPING Bitcoin but not touching S&P 500. Yup. Let's cut Bitcoin's CAGR and Vol in HALF. New BTC CAGR: 22% New BTC Vol: 30% Now a Monte Carlo simulation of a $10,000 investment in each with 100,000 paths! Median ending value: Bitcoin: $72,827 (7.3x return) SPY: $37,046 (3.7x return) 5th percentile return: Bitcoin: $15,105 SPY: $13,091 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $347,226 SPY: $104,765 The chance of your investment winding up greater than $100k: Bitcoin: 36.8% SPY: 5.8% Let's run it again with 6% inflation eating both of them. Real CAGR after the government takes its cut: Bitcoin: 15.1% SPY: 7.5% Median ending value: Bitcoin: $40,666 (4.1x) SPY: $20,686 (2.1x) 5th percentile: Bitcoin: $8,435 SPY: $7,310 Yes, both of them lose in the left tail. Inflation stays undefeated down there. Choose your poison honestly. 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $193,889 SPY: $58,500 Odds of simply keeping your purchasing power: Bitcoin: 93.1% SPY: 87.5% Odds of ending with more than $100,000 in today's dollars: Bitcoin: 17.2% SPY: 0.6% Nominally that gap was 6x. In real terms it becomes 27x, because $100k sits way out on the S&P's skinny little tail. I handicapped Bitcoin with half the return, half the volatility, and Bitcoin still buys the house while SPY buys the down payment. Bitcoin remains the APEX GROWTH ASSET and the S&P 500 remains the preferred choice for khaki-wearing midwits stuck in a beige office chair from 1994:
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BITCOIN VS. THE S&P 500 - THE NEXT 10 YEARS There is a lot of talk and crying about how Bitcoin has diminishing returns and it's not worth the volatility. And to that I say: LOL. Since January 1st, 2020: Bitcoin CAGR: 44% Bitcoin Vol: 60% SPY CAGR: 14% SPY Vol: 20% Bitcoin gave you roughly 3x the volatility but slightly more than 3x the compound growth rate. Now lets walk forward a decade, SEVERELY HANDICAPPING Bitcoin but not touching S&P 500. Yup. Let's cut Bitcoin's CAGR and Vol in HALF. New BTC CAGR: 22% New BTC Vol: 30% Now a Monte Carlo simulation of a $10,000 investment in each with 100,000 paths! Median ending value: Bitcoin: $72,827 (7.3x return) SPY: $37,046 (3.7x return) 5th percentile return: Bitcoin: $15,105 SPY: $13,091 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $347,226 SPY: $104,765 The chance of your investment winding up greater than $100k: Bitcoin: 36.8% SPY: 5.8% Let's run it again with 6% inflation eating both of them. Real CAGR after the government takes its cut: Bitcoin: 15.1% SPY: 7.5% Median ending value: Bitcoin: $40,666 (4.1x) SPY: $20,686 (2.1x) 5th percentile: Bitcoin: $8,435 SPY: $7,310 Yes, both of them lose in the left tail. Inflation stays undefeated down there. Choose your poison honestly. 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $193,889 SPY: $58,500 Odds of simply keeping your purchasing power: Bitcoin: 93.1% SPY: 87.5% Odds of ending with more than $100,000 in today's dollars: Bitcoin: 17.2% SPY: 0.6% Nominally that gap was 6x. In real terms it becomes 27x, because $100k sits way out on the S&P's skinny little tail. I handicapped Bitcoin with half the return, half the volatility, and Bitcoin still buys the house while SPY buys the down payment. Bitcoin remains the APEX GROWTH ASSET and the S&P 500 remains the preferred choice for khaki-wearing midwits stuck in a beige office chair from 1994:

Adam Livingston

19,930 просмотров • 13 дней назад

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.
0:10

SATA acquired an estimated ~291.5 BTC today. That would be assuming $19.13M raised out of the $96.44M daily volume. Is this accurate? Tough to know! We'll find out Monday I assume. But what does this look like for ASST's stock price if this was replicated every day for a year? Let's say there are about ~21 trading days per month... and Bitcoin is at $200k a year from now. It'll be a volatile, non-linear ride upward of course, but this is what it looks like if BTC moves linearly to that price point with this level of issuance. 21 x $19.3M raised = ~$400 million raised per month via SATA... zero ASST sold to buy Bitcoin. Zero mNAV expansion... mNAV trades at the same it does today. Common stock ASST is sold to fund dividends in this model. At $200K BTC: Ending BTC stack: 65,250 ₿ Ending CEBE sats/share: 43,614 CEBE Sats Yield: 228.9% annualized Ending implied stock price: $157.88 Total return vs today: 900% It is a 10x from today almost exactly. Does common equity own more residual Bitcoin per share after senior claims, dividends, and dilution? In this model, yes. A lot more. Not investment advice. This does not include the potential warrant exercises later this year. Issuing SATA adds a lot of LATENT POWER to the balance sheet. If Bitcoin goes up and to the right and it SATA issuance can continue to raise capital... well... ASST is a powder keg about to be ignited.

Adam Livingston

15,473 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

We’re thrilled to announce that Bitcoin is now finally live on our cross-chain bridge, Router Nitro! Try it out: With this integration, you can now: - Swap any asset from the Ethereum chain to BTC on the Bitcoin network - Swap BTC from the Bitcoin network to WBTC on the Ethereum chain Experience unmatched speed and cost-efficiency—all in a fully decentralized, trustless way with no custodians involved! Getting started is simple: - You can use any EVM-compatible wallet when you’re going from Ethereum to Bitcoin - When going from Bitcoin to Ethereum, to have a smooth and easy experience you will need XDEFI wallet! Our roadmap includes adding more chains, wallets, and assets to support Bitcoin bridging. Besides, Router is developing a solution to enable users to seamlessly transfer BTC from Bitcoin to any token on other chains. In upcoming upgrades, users will be able to buy any token they want using Bitcoin. Bitcoin holds unmatched stability and liquidity in the crypto world and with this integration, Router Nitro empowers users, platforms, and developers to access Bitcoin’s liquidity across DeFi, dApps, and more—all while preserving Bitcoin’s core values. Embrace the power of BTC and start exploring Router Nitro’s new Bitcoin connectivity!
0:17

We’re thrilled to announce that Bitcoin is now finally live on our cross-chain bridge, Router Nitro! Try it out: With this integration, you can now: - Swap any asset from the Ethereum chain to BTC on the Bitcoin network - Swap BTC from the Bitcoin network to WBTC on the Ethereum chain Experience unmatched speed and cost-efficiency—all in a fully decentralized, trustless way with no custodians involved! Getting started is simple: - You can use any EVM-compatible wallet when you’re going from Ethereum to Bitcoin - When going from Bitcoin to Ethereum, to have a smooth and easy experience you will need XDEFI wallet! Our roadmap includes adding more chains, wallets, and assets to support Bitcoin bridging. Besides, Router is developing a solution to enable users to seamlessly transfer BTC from Bitcoin to any token on other chains. In upcoming upgrades, users will be able to buy any token they want using Bitcoin. Bitcoin holds unmatched stability and liquidity in the crypto world and with this integration, Router Nitro empowers users, platforms, and developers to access Bitcoin’s liquidity across DeFi, dApps, and more—all while preserving Bitcoin’s core values. Embrace the power of BTC and start exploring Router Nitro’s new Bitcoin connectivity!

Router Protocol

84,347 просмотров • 1 год назад

🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.
0:19

🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.

Adam Livingston

12,608 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Introducing Zest Protocol Stacks Vaults, Automated yield strategies for Bitcoin-native finance. Launching alongside the stacks.btc Bitcoin Staking upgrade. Stacks Vaults mark the evolution of Zest Protocol from a lending market into yield infrastructure. Until now, earning optimised yield on Stacks meant actively managing positions across markets, moving collateral, monitoring rates, and rebalancing by hand. Stacks Vaults changes that: deposit a single asset, select a strategy, and the vault handles the mechanics in the background. This is the yield toolkit for Stacks. Every yield source in the ecosystem becomes a strategy that can be automated and offered as a single-deposit product. The first vault is a levered Bitcoin Staking vault, built around the liquid staking Bitcoin token Stacking DAO launches with the Stacks Bitcoin Staking upgrade. How the levered Bitcoin Staking vault works: 🟠 One deposit, one position. Deposit BTC, sBTC, or stBTC directly into the vault. You hold a single position while the strategy runs itself. 🟠 Automated leverage. The vault uses your stBTC as collateral to borrow sBTC, stakes the borrowed sBTC into stBTC, and repeats the process. Target yield: 6 to 8%, purely derived from Bitcoin Staking on Stacks. 🟠 Non-custodial. The vault contract can only execute strategy actions on Zest Protocol's lending markets. It cannot move funds anywhere else, and only the user can withdraw their position. No one, including Zest Protocol, can access vault assets. 🟠 Built on live lending markets. The vault runs on Zest Protocol's existing markets: two years in production, over a thousand liquidations processed without bad debt. 🟠 Continuous monitoring. Zest Protocol manages the strategy and monitors the position automatically. No manual rebalancing, no juggling markets. 🟠 First of many strategies. The stBTC looping vault is the first, not the last. STX-based strategies, stablecoin and credit-based strategies, and structured yield products can all be built on the same foundation. External curators will be able to manage their own strategies on Stacks Vaults. Lending markets were the foundation. Vaults are what gets built on top. Stacks Vaults launch alongside stBTC, right before Stacks Bitcoin Staking goes live. Note: Stacks Vaults are separate from Bitcoin Collateral Vaults, Zest Protocol's upcoming flagship product that allows users to borrow against native BTC on any chain (e.g. Ethereum). More updates on Bitcoin Collateral Vaults follow shortly. Follow Zest Protocol on X or subscribe to our newsletter to be notified when levered Bitcoin Staking goes live.
0:10

Introducing Zest Protocol Stacks Vaults, Automated yield strategies for Bitcoin-native finance. Launching alongside the stacks.btc Bitcoin Staking upgrade. Stacks Vaults mark the evolution of Zest Protocol from a lending market into yield infrastructure. Until now, earning optimised yield on Stacks meant actively managing positions across markets, moving collateral, monitoring rates, and rebalancing by hand. Stacks Vaults changes that: deposit a single asset, select a strategy, and the vault handles the mechanics in the background. This is the yield toolkit for Stacks. Every yield source in the ecosystem becomes a strategy that can be automated and offered as a single-deposit product. The first vault is a levered Bitcoin Staking vault, built around the liquid staking Bitcoin token Stacking DAO launches with the Stacks Bitcoin Staking upgrade. How the levered Bitcoin Staking vault works: 🟠 One deposit, one position. Deposit BTC, sBTC, or stBTC directly into the vault. You hold a single position while the strategy runs itself. 🟠 Automated leverage. The vault uses your stBTC as collateral to borrow sBTC, stakes the borrowed sBTC into stBTC, and repeats the process. Target yield: 6 to 8%, purely derived from Bitcoin Staking on Stacks. 🟠 Non-custodial. The vault contract can only execute strategy actions on Zest Protocol's lending markets. It cannot move funds anywhere else, and only the user can withdraw their position. No one, including Zest Protocol, can access vault assets. 🟠 Built on live lending markets. The vault runs on Zest Protocol's existing markets: two years in production, over a thousand liquidations processed without bad debt. 🟠 Continuous monitoring. Zest Protocol manages the strategy and monitors the position automatically. No manual rebalancing, no juggling markets. 🟠 First of many strategies. The stBTC looping vault is the first, not the last. STX-based strategies, stablecoin and credit-based strategies, and structured yield products can all be built on the same foundation. External curators will be able to manage their own strategies on Stacks Vaults. Lending markets were the foundation. Vaults are what gets built on top. Stacks Vaults launch alongside stBTC, right before Stacks Bitcoin Staking goes live. Note: Stacks Vaults are separate from Bitcoin Collateral Vaults, Zest Protocol's upcoming flagship product that allows users to borrow against native BTC on any chain (e.g. Ethereum). More updates on Bitcoin Collateral Vaults follow shortly. Follow Zest Protocol on X or subscribe to our newsletter to be notified when levered Bitcoin Staking goes live.

Zest Protocol

28,549 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$1M Bitcoin in 2027 Everyone thinks Michael Saylor and ETFs get us there. I think it’s Paul Sztorc and the eCash.com $BTC hard fork. I sat with Paul Sztorc who made me realise eCash could be one of the most important forks in bitcoins history, stimulating our greatest bullrun ever. The tldr is in August if you hold bitcoin you get the equivalent in eCash. Now eCash on its own merit is already interesting. It’s led by Paul Sztorc who has spent years campaigning to improve bitcoins mechanical utility. He’s a certified legit Bitcoin OG who wants to add functional layers on-top of Bitcoin to enable Bitcoin to be the rails for the broader world of commerce. He plans to achieve this with side chains that are sort of like L2s on Bitcoin. Imagine if Bitcoin had smart contracts and $btc was the currency for all apps in the world. 🤔so technically it’s already very compelling. You will get that for free just by owning Bitcoin. But that’s not all. Paul has figured out a way to finance new forks. I believe this will trigger a new season of fork innovations. Basically fork wars 2.0 only this time it’s based around experimentation and innovation instead of outright kill Bitcoin. Institutions have been all the craze recently but they have never been the source of crypto's biggest expansions. The people who built this industry were. The Cryptographers, the hackers, the builders and the cypherpunks. Everyone is focusing on Strategy selling Bitcoin, meanwhile the upcoming eCash hard fork from Paul Sztorc is being wildly underestimated. Technically, the idea of improving bitcoins mechanical utility is appealing but the event itself is also financially dramatic inducing a huge wealth effect for a whole new generation of Bitcoin holders and it may remind the market who actually drives innovation in this industry. Every major crypto boom began when a small group of weird, intelligent, highly-convicted people challenged the status quo and built something new. And while everyone thinks the next bull market comes from Wall Street, I think much more poetically it comes from the same place every other one did: The real Bitcoiners. Anyway, the interview is linked below. I highly recommend you watch it and I’ll be writing my thesis that goes over wealth effects, network effects, financial incentives, game theory and how this all spills over into a bitcoin and crypto bullrun like we’ve never seen before.
0:34

$1M Bitcoin in 2027 Everyone thinks Michael Saylor and ETFs get us there. I think it’s Paul Sztorc and the eCash.com $BTC hard fork. I sat with Paul Sztorc who made me realise eCash could be one of the most important forks in bitcoins history, stimulating our greatest bullrun ever. The tldr is in August if you hold bitcoin you get the equivalent in eCash. Now eCash on its own merit is already interesting. It’s led by Paul Sztorc who has spent years campaigning to improve bitcoins mechanical utility. He’s a certified legit Bitcoin OG who wants to add functional layers on-top of Bitcoin to enable Bitcoin to be the rails for the broader world of commerce. He plans to achieve this with side chains that are sort of like L2s on Bitcoin. Imagine if Bitcoin had smart contracts and $btc was the currency for all apps in the world. 🤔so technically it’s already very compelling. You will get that for free just by owning Bitcoin. But that’s not all. Paul has figured out a way to finance new forks. I believe this will trigger a new season of fork innovations. Basically fork wars 2.0 only this time it’s based around experimentation and innovation instead of outright kill Bitcoin. Institutions have been all the craze recently but they have never been the source of crypto's biggest expansions. The people who built this industry were. The Cryptographers, the hackers, the builders and the cypherpunks. Everyone is focusing on Strategy selling Bitcoin, meanwhile the upcoming eCash hard fork from Paul Sztorc is being wildly underestimated. Technically, the idea of improving bitcoins mechanical utility is appealing but the event itself is also financially dramatic inducing a huge wealth effect for a whole new generation of Bitcoin holders and it may remind the market who actually drives innovation in this industry. Every major crypto boom began when a small group of weird, intelligent, highly-convicted people challenged the status quo and built something new. And while everyone thinks the next bull market comes from Wall Street, I think much more poetically it comes from the same place every other one did: The real Bitcoiners. Anyway, the interview is linked below. I highly recommend you watch it and I’ll be writing my thesis that goes over wealth effects, network effects, financial incentives, game theory and how this all spills over into a bitcoin and crypto bullrun like we’ve never seen before.

Senator Mak🖖

130,752 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🔥 THE REALITY ABOUT ZCASH THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW BITCOIN WAS SUPPOSED TO BE FREEDOM. NOW IT’S SURVEILLED, CUSTODIAL, AND CONTROLLED. today almost 10% of BTC sits inside ETFs + government-controlled custodians. Fully watched. Zero privacy. Zero sovereignty. Meanwhile the world is moving into MAX CONTROL: CBDCs, tracking laws, surveillance everywhere. Bitcoin can’t hide you anymore. ZCASH CAN. Bitcoin had ONE CHANCE to add privacy years ago… and the core devs REJECTED IT. So the creators left… and built ZCASH, the upgrade Bitcoin was scared to adopt. Then everything changed: ZEC + Zashi + Intents → instant private swaps → mobile → no KYC → no CEX → NO PERMISSION That’s when the market woke up: • ZEC: $78 → $800 • ZEC VOLUME FLIPPED BTC • 1,000,000+ ZEC moved into shielded pools • 5M+ ZEC now private • Early BTC WHALES backing it • WINKLEVOSS returning to the mission Because the truth is simple: ZCASH DOES WHAT BITCOIN CAN’T. Monero? Too slow. Too dirty. Too stuck. ZEC? Clean. Encrypted. Scalable. Professional. A REAL privacy asset. And now the big boys are circling back. OG Bitcoiners. Tech elites. New capital. Everyone who still believes in REAL cypherpunk freedom. When you put it all together: ✔ BTC captured ✔ surveillance rising ✔ privacy denied ✔ Zcash born ✔ UX solved ✔ volume exploding ✔ shielded supply vertical ✔ OG support returning ✔ new money entering You get one conclusion: ZCASH IS BECOMING WHAT BITCOIN WAS MEANT TO BE. THE MARKET JUST HASN’T ACCEPTED IT YET. When this narrative catches fire… When people realize they NEED privacy again… $ZEC will already pump to $50,000
0:12

🔥 THE REALITY ABOUT ZCASH THEY DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW BITCOIN WAS SUPPOSED TO BE FREEDOM. NOW IT’S SURVEILLED, CUSTODIAL, AND CONTROLLED. today almost 10% of BTC sits inside ETFs + government-controlled custodians. Fully watched. Zero privacy. Zero sovereignty. Meanwhile the world is moving into MAX CONTROL: CBDCs, tracking laws, surveillance everywhere. Bitcoin can’t hide you anymore. ZCASH CAN. Bitcoin had ONE CHANCE to add privacy years ago… and the core devs REJECTED IT. So the creators left… and built ZCASH, the upgrade Bitcoin was scared to adopt. Then everything changed: ZEC + Zashi + Intents → instant private swaps → mobile → no KYC → no CEX → NO PERMISSION That’s when the market woke up: • ZEC: $78 → $800 • ZEC VOLUME FLIPPED BTC • 1,000,000+ ZEC moved into shielded pools • 5M+ ZEC now private • Early BTC WHALES backing it • WINKLEVOSS returning to the mission Because the truth is simple: ZCASH DOES WHAT BITCOIN CAN’T. Monero? Too slow. Too dirty. Too stuck. ZEC? Clean. Encrypted. Scalable. Professional. A REAL privacy asset. And now the big boys are circling back. OG Bitcoiners. Tech elites. New capital. Everyone who still believes in REAL cypherpunk freedom. When you put it all together: ✔ BTC captured ✔ surveillance rising ✔ privacy denied ✔ Zcash born ✔ UX solved ✔ volume exploding ✔ shielded supply vertical ✔ OG support returning ✔ new money entering You get one conclusion: ZCASH IS BECOMING WHAT BITCOIN WAS MEANT TO BE. THE MARKET JUST HASN’T ACCEPTED IT YET. When this narrative catches fire… When people realize they NEED privacy again… $ZEC will already pump to $50,000

Whale.Guru

132,096 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад