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Capability overhang means too many gaps today between what the models can do and what most people actually do with them. 2026 Prediction: Progress towards AGI will depend as much on helping people use AI well, in ways that directly benefit them as on progress in frontier models themselves.... show more

OpenAI

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666,839 views • 7 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Let’s talk about evals. We’re always looking for better ways to measure and forecast model progress, especially as benchmarks get saturated or gamed. Tejal Patwardhan, who leads our frontier evals team, spoke to Andrew Mayne about why evals matter and what models need to be judged on next.

Let’s talk about evals. We’re always looking for better ways to measure and forecast model progress, especially as benchmarks get saturated or gamed. Tejal Patwardhan, who leads our frontier evals team, spoke to Andrew Mayne about why evals matter and what models need to be judged on next.

OpenAI

276,092 views • 1 month ago

I was honored to share the TED AI stage with Ilya on Oct. 17. His speech video is out today (mine's still being edited). I think it provides relevant context tokens to the ongoing events. Transcript starting at ~10'20": As AI continues to progress, as technology advances, [...] What I claim will happen is that people will start to act in unprecedentedly collaborative ways out of their own self-interest. It's already happening right now. You see the leading AGI companies starting to collaborate, such as the Frontiers model forum. And we will expect that companies, even competitors, will share technical information to make their AI safe. We may even see governments do this. As another example, at OpenAI, we really believed in how dramatic AGI is going to be. So, one of the ideas that we were operating by, and it's been written on our website for 5 years now, is that when technology gets such that we are very close to AGI, to computers smarter than humans, if some other company is far ahead of us, then rather than compete with them, we will help them out, join them, in a sense. And why do that? Because we appreciate how incredibly dramatic AGI is going to be. And my claim is that with each generation of capability advancements, as AI gets better and as all of you experience what AI can do, as people who run AI efforts and AGI efforts, and people who work on them will experience it as well, this will change the way we see AI and AGI. And that will change collective behavior. And this is an important reason why I'm hopeful that, despite the great challenges posed by this technology, we will overcome them. @TEDAI2023

I was honored to share the TED AI stage with Ilya on Oct. 17. His speech video is out today (mine's still being edited). I think it provides relevant context tokens to the ongoing events. Transcript starting at ~10'20": As AI continues to progress, as technology advances, [...] What I claim will happen is that people will start to act in unprecedentedly collaborative ways out of their own self-interest. It's already happening right now. You see the leading AGI companies starting to collaborate, such as the Frontiers model forum. And we will expect that companies, even competitors, will share technical information to make their AI safe. We may even see governments do this. As another example, at OpenAI, we really believed in how dramatic AGI is going to be. So, one of the ideas that we were operating by, and it's been written on our website for 5 years now, is that when technology gets such that we are very close to AGI, to computers smarter than humans, if some other company is far ahead of us, then rather than compete with them, we will help them out, join them, in a sense. And why do that? Because we appreciate how incredibly dramatic AGI is going to be. And my claim is that with each generation of capability advancements, as AI gets better and as all of you experience what AI can do, as people who run AI efforts and AGI efforts, and people who work on them will experience it as well, this will change the way we see AI and AGI. And that will change collective behavior. And this is an important reason why I'm hopeful that, despite the great challenges posed by this technology, we will overcome them. @TEDAI2023

Jim Fan

846,514 views • 2 years ago

SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."

SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."

MTS

14,406 views • 1 month ago

The gap between what AI models can do and what products actually exist is massive right now.⁣ ⁣ Sam Altman says reasoning models opened up entirely new possibilities that barely anyone is exploring yet.⁣ ⁣ Tomorrow's products are yet to be built. Will you build them?

The gap between what AI models can do and what products actually exist is massive right now.⁣ ⁣ Sam Altman says reasoning models opened up entirely new possibilities that barely anyone is exploring yet.⁣ ⁣ Tomorrow's products are yet to be built. Will you build them?

Garry Tan

235,122 views • 1 year ago

The President of Anthropic said something at Stanford that no other AI CEO will say publicly. She talked about what AI is doing to the people who use it, why she walked out of OpenAI, and what skills will actually matter when AI can do most of what we do today. 1/ What AI safety actually means

The President of Anthropic said something at Stanford that no other AI CEO will say publicly. She talked about what AI is doing to the people who use it, why she walked out of OpenAI, and what skills will actually matter when AI can do most of what we do today. 1/ What AI safety actually means

Ihtesham Ali

150,207 views • 1 month ago

As much as ai image editing is cool and can be fun, there will be a whole new category of bullying or abuse people will do with AI photos. It’s actually insane this guy was able to get many photo copies of this girl with Epstein and place them all throughout the target in a very short amount of time. There’s plenty of videos on Instagram of people going up to unsuspected people showing them there cars getting broken into or showing other strangers touching or stealing from them that aren’t real. The line between reality and AI will blur

As much as ai image editing is cool and can be fun, there will be a whole new category of bullying or abuse people will do with AI photos. It’s actually insane this guy was able to get many photo copies of this girl with Epstein and place them all throughout the target in a very short amount of time. There’s plenty of videos on Instagram of people going up to unsuspected people showing them there cars getting broken into or showing other strangers touching or stealing from them that aren’t real. The line between reality and AI will blur

Chris

132,745 views • 7 months ago

Demis Hassabis recommendation for college students. He’s still do STEM, math and computer science. Expertise in those fields will help better leverage AI for at least next decade. Those in non-techical majors, really “lean in to” using latest models. AI labs spending so much time creating new models that they’ve only “scratched the surface” of what the models can actually do (huge “capability overhang”). And expertise in any field can be turbocharged by smart use of AI. “Double down on your own agency. The future is still to be written. Don’t listen to anyone that says it’s not.”

Demis Hassabis recommendation for college students. He’s still do STEM, math and computer science. Expertise in those fields will help better leverage AI for at least next decade. Those in non-techical majors, really “lean in to” using latest models. AI labs spending so much time creating new models that they’ve only “scratched the surface” of what the models can actually do (huge “capability overhang”). And expertise in any field can be turbocharged by smart use of AI. “Double down on your own agency. The future is still to be written. Don’t listen to anyone that says it’s not.”

Bearly AI

218,036 views • 1 month ago

Most people will look at this and simply see someone happily training in a well-lit, comfortable gym. It doesn’t snow inside. There’s no war. They’ll wonder what could possibly be challenging about it. But do you know what kind of mental state it takes to push something that weighs twice as much as you do? Do you know what that person might be going through in life? What this means to them? You don’t, otherwise you wouldn’t be asking that question.

Most people will look at this and simply see someone happily training in a well-lit, comfortable gym. It doesn’t snow inside. There’s no war. They’ll wonder what could possibly be challenging about it. But do you know what kind of mental state it takes to push something that weighs twice as much as you do? Do you know what that person might be going through in life? What this means to them? You don’t, otherwise you wouldn’t be asking that question.

StrengthEwa

62,270 views • 8 months ago

.David Deutsch on why the people in favor of regulating AI are wrong: “They look at problems and they think they’re insoluble because they haven’t been solved, and therefore they want to prevent the progress that is going to cause the problems. Now, generically, what that will do is it will make the progress happen in the wrong place. It will happen among people who do not obey the regulation, and those people are people who are alienated from the best culture, and they will then become a danger to the best culture. Now, I’m speaking in general terms about progress—progress in computing and so on—but I think this particular thing you’ve mentioned is actually not going to be that much of a danger. AGI (artificial general intelligence) will present a whole load of new problems which will have to be solved, no doubt with the help of AGI. But AI, the kind of thing we have now with ChatGPT and that kind of thing, which is amazingly and increasingly useful and is going to have unpredictable effects on society—most of them good—isn’t anything profound. It’s no different from having a calculator or a slide rule.”

.David Deutsch on why the people in favor of regulating AI are wrong: “They look at problems and they think they’re insoluble because they haven’t been solved, and therefore they want to prevent the progress that is going to cause the problems. Now, generically, what that will do is it will make the progress happen in the wrong place. It will happen among people who do not obey the regulation, and those people are people who are alienated from the best culture, and they will then become a danger to the best culture. Now, I’m speaking in general terms about progress—progress in computing and so on—but I think this particular thing you’ve mentioned is actually not going to be that much of a danger. AGI (artificial general intelligence) will present a whole load of new problems which will have to be solved, no doubt with the help of AGI. But AI, the kind of thing we have now with ChatGPT and that kind of thing, which is amazingly and increasingly useful and is going to have unpredictable effects on society—most of them good—isn’t anything profound. It’s no different from having a calculator or a slide rule.”

Arjun Khemani

30,132 views • 1 year ago

✨Spotlight: Top 4 Code Arena open models Open models are moving fast, and this community is directly shaping how that progress shows up in real use. Your builds, votes, and experiments surface what frontier models can actually do in practice. To celebrate the momentum, we’re spotlighting the top open models in Code Arena (WebDev) 🧵👇 🔥 MiniMax (official) — MiniMax-M2.1 🤖 Z.ai — GLM-4.7 ✨ DeepSeek — Deepseek-v3.2-thinking 🚀 Xiaomi MiMo — Mimo-v2-flash (non-thinking) Let’s keep building in the open and raising the bar together 🚀

✨Spotlight: Top 4 Code Arena open models Open models are moving fast, and this community is directly shaping how that progress shows up in real use. Your builds, votes, and experiments surface what frontier models can actually do in practice. To celebrate the momentum, we’re spotlighting the top open models in Code Arena (WebDev) 🧵👇 🔥 MiniMax (official) — MiniMax-M2.1 🤖 Z.ai — GLM-4.7 ✨ DeepSeek — Deepseek-v3.2-thinking 🚀 Xiaomi MiMo — Mimo-v2-flash (non-thinking) Let’s keep building in the open and raising the bar together 🚀

Arena.ai

16,742 views • 6 months ago

Continual Learning in 2026. And AGI with it? In July, Dario said he believes Continual Learning will turn out to be not as difficult as it seems. Sholto Douglas, Anthropic and former Deepmind researcher, predicted Continual Learning gets solved in a satisfying way in 2026. Sholto said that last week. Considering how capable AI models have become in 2025, it is unwise to dismiss this as fundraising or hype. It is much wiser to assume AGI is coming. That it will change the world. And that you can benefit from it... ...than it is to assume the opposite. "Not enough people are ready for AI to not be a bubble." - roon Choose wisely my friends.

Continual Learning in 2026. And AGI with it? In July, Dario said he believes Continual Learning will turn out to be not as difficult as it seems. Sholto Douglas, Anthropic and former Deepmind researcher, predicted Continual Learning gets solved in a satisfying way in 2026. Sholto said that last week. Considering how capable AI models have become in 2025, it is unwise to dismiss this as fundraising or hype. It is much wiser to assume AGI is coming. That it will change the world. And that you can benefit from it... ...than it is to assume the opposite. "Not enough people are ready for AI to not be a bubble." - roon Choose wisely my friends.

Dan McAteer

69,496 views • 7 months ago

Progress is powered by people, together. In 2025, the Essar family came together in ways that strengthened our culture, deepened our bonds, and welcomed fresh energy, while honouring the people and traditions that have always powered our progress. What defined the year wasn’t just what we built, but the spirit, trust, and care with which we built it. As we step into 2026, that spirit carries forward. Stronger. Inspired. Together.

Progress is powered by people, together. In 2025, the Essar family came together in ways that strengthened our culture, deepened our bonds, and welcomed fresh energy, while honouring the people and traditions that have always powered our progress. What defined the year wasn’t just what we built, but the spirit, trust, and care with which we built it. As we step into 2026, that spirit carries forward. Stronger. Inspired. Together.

Essar

114,260 views • 7 months ago

D.C. has forgotten about We The People. Well, I never will. I’m a believer, a combat veteran, and a small business owner. And I will be YOUR voice. It’s time someone reminds the politicians in Washington that We The People tell them what to do — not the other way around.

D.C. has forgotten about We The People. Well, I never will. I’m a believer, a combat veteran, and a small business owner. And I will be YOUR voice. It’s time someone reminds the politicians in Washington that We The People tell them what to do — not the other way around.

Jared Hudson

16,837 views • 1 year ago

Dear Tokunbo, when will you stop embarrassing yourself on social media. In 2026 as “mega” as you guys claim Lagos is, you still put people in drainages to clean them? Please stop this mediocre nonsense and tell Lagosians what you do with your allocation.

Dear Tokunbo, when will you stop embarrassing yourself on social media. In 2026 as “mega” as you guys claim Lagos is, you still put people in drainages to clean them? Please stop this mediocre nonsense and tell Lagosians what you do with your allocation.

Nonconformist

501,773 views • 10 months ago

With all the talk about graphene in the past, it makes you wonder what else they would do to try to get people to ingest it. And why? Graphene can harm you in many ways. But I’m not sure the powers that be care about your health. God bless

With all the talk about graphene in the past, it makes you wonder what else they would do to try to get people to ingest it. And why? Graphene can harm you in many ways. But I’m not sure the powers that be care about your health. God bless

Harry Fisher

30,345 views • 2 years ago

OpenClaw just went fully local. No cloud. No API bills. Zero cost AI agents running on your own computer. 🤯 This changes everything about automation in 2026. Pair OpenClaw with Ollama and you can run models like Qwen, Minimax, and Kimi directly on your machine. That means daily research agents, content pipelines, onboarding automations, and community updates running nonstop without paying per task. Most people still think powerful agents require subscriptions. They don’t anymore.

OpenClaw just went fully local. No cloud. No API bills. Zero cost AI agents running on your own computer. 🤯 This changes everything about automation in 2026. Pair OpenClaw with Ollama and you can run models like Qwen, Minimax, and Kimi directly on your machine. That means daily research agents, content pipelines, onboarding automations, and community updates running nonstop without paying per task. Most people still think powerful agents require subscriptions. They don’t anymore.

Julian Goldie SEO

18,893 views • 3 months ago

📁 Lisa Su, CEO of AMD, says we still haven’t seen anything yet. She explains that AI progress is no longer measured in years, but in weeks, as models, use cases, and real business results evolve at an unprecedented pace. She says 2025 was just the beginning and that 2026 will accelerate even further. AI is no longer hype or an investor story, it’s a technology people use every day and already feel improving their lives.

📁 Lisa Su, CEO of AMD, says we still haven’t seen anything yet. She explains that AI progress is no longer measured in years, but in weeks, as models, use cases, and real business results evolve at an unprecedented pace. She says 2025 was just the beginning and that 2026 will accelerate even further. AI is no longer hype or an investor story, it’s a technology people use every day and already feel improving their lives.

Jon Hernandez

50,689 views • 6 months ago

This is for all the people in the arena ( your life, your career, your family ) who are doing it for them .. not for the validation of the crowd One of the great issues in our society right now is that people live their lives for outside validation, for the clicks, for the likes, for the followers, for the comments. This isn't just in social media. This is happening in the analog and real world too. Too many people are keeping up with the Joneses and worried about what people think about them. They worry about what people think about how much money they have, what school they go to, or even worse, what school their kids go to, and on and on and on … I will continue to make content with the hope it breaks someone out of the hamster wheel and that’s that ❤️❤️❤️❤️

This is for all the people in the arena ( your life, your career, your family ) who are doing it for them .. not for the validation of the crowd One of the great issues in our society right now is that people live their lives for outside validation, for the clicks, for the likes, for the followers, for the comments. This isn't just in social media. This is happening in the analog and real world too. Too many people are keeping up with the Joneses and worried about what people think about them. They worry about what people think about how much money they have, what school they go to, or even worse, what school their kids go to, and on and on and on … I will continue to make content with the hope it breaks someone out of the hamster wheel and that’s that ❤️❤️❤️❤️

Gary Vaynerchuk

19,794 views • 3 months ago

Terry Tao’s Warning About AI Terence Tao says humans will continue pushing the mathematical frontier, while AI tackles millions of medium-difficulty problems that no one has time to solve. That’s invaluable. This kind of assistance will undoubtedly accelerate progress. But is it the same as AGI? I don’t think so. “As long as you only use AIs to the extent that you can verify their outputs, and no further, then they can be a great tool.”

Terry Tao’s Warning About AI Terence Tao says humans will continue pushing the mathematical frontier, while AI tackles millions of medium-difficulty problems that no one has time to solve. That’s invaluable. This kind of assistance will undoubtedly accelerate progress. But is it the same as AGI? I don’t think so. “As long as you only use AIs to the extent that you can verify their outputs, and no further, then they can be a great tool.”

Prof. Brian Keating

21,004 views • 6 months ago

Clint Eastwood on why other people's opinions don't matter: Clint is asked whether he worries more now, or less, about what other people think of him as a person. He says: "I don't really worry too much about that. People have to think what they think. You can't go out and sell some image to them. That would be false to begin with." He continues: "So you just go ahead and do your work and people will form an opinion about you, good, bad or otherwise. It's up to them. It's not anything you can control anyway. So why bother with it? Why worry about it?" Then he lays out the only standard worth measuring yourself against: "If you live your life and you try to do as well as you can for your community, and be helpful, and do the best work you can, be the best mate or parent you can, then that's the best you."

Clint Eastwood on why other people's opinions don't matter: Clint is asked whether he worries more now, or less, about what other people think of him as a person. He says: "I don't really worry too much about that. People have to think what they think. You can't go out and sell some image to them. That would be false to begin with." He continues: "So you just go ahead and do your work and people will form an opinion about you, good, bad or otherwise. It's up to them. It's not anything you can control anyway. So why bother with it? Why worry about it?" Then he lays out the only standard worth measuring yourself against: "If you live your life and you try to do as well as you can for your community, and be helpful, and do the best work you can, be the best mate or parent you can, then that's the best you."

History Nerd

74,457 views • 18 days ago