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SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open...

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ELON: CHINA HAS THE BEST OPEN SOURCE AI MODELS RIGHT NOW “The best open source models are generally from China, which is bizarre. I think the second best one, or maybe it’s better than second best, is Grok 2.5. The open source model is actually very good, and we will continue to open source our models.” Source: The All-In Podcast
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ELON: CHINA HAS THE BEST OPEN SOURCE AI MODELS RIGHT NOW “The best open source models are generally from China, which is bizarre. I think the second best one, or maybe it’s better than second best, is Grok 2.5. The open source model is actually very good, and we will continue to open source our models.” Source: The All-In Podcast

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In between major AI model breakthroughs, new models still ship, but they’re not fundamentally expanding what you can do with them. Braintrust CEO Ankur Goyal says that’s exactly when open source starts to surge: "When new models come out, people forget about open source and forget about economics because it changes fundamentally what you can do." "Programming is a good example. The workflow today is completely different than it was a year ago. If you tried to use models from a year ago today, you wouldn't be able to do crazy stuff like OpenClaw or whatever people are building nowadays." "When models don't change at that speed, people optimize the performance on the use cases that they have." "If you look at usage on our platform, almost half the token usage is coming from open source models from a very small number of companies that have figured out how to optimize use cases really well."

TBPN

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Sam Altman on Open Source AI's Future⁣ ⁣ "Right now, what everybody wants is just the most capable frontier coding model they can have. The big frontier models, even if we made them open source, are hard to run." — #sama
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AI Insights

19,607 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike
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“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

Harry Stebbings

63,738 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The open-source & open-weight frontier is 7 months behind the closed-model frontier. Let’s talk about it. Check out last week’s episode for the reasons why you might want to consider open-source & open-weight models. Welcome to the fourth episode of the Open Model Series with merve, Hugging Face AI/ML engineer & open-sourceress! We have been discussing open-source & open-weight AI: what it is, how it works, and how you can run them on your own compute. Please leave all your questions about open-source & open-weight AI in the comments! This is a super important topic that is novel to most people, and it can be challenging to grasp - so rest assured your questions are shared with many others!
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The open-source & open-weight frontier is 7 months behind the closed-model frontier. Let’s talk about it. Check out last week’s episode for the reasons why you might want to consider open-source & open-weight models. Welcome to the fourth episode of the Open Model Series with merve, Hugging Face AI/ML engineer & open-sourceress! We have been discussing open-source & open-weight AI: what it is, how it works, and how you can run them on your own compute. Please leave all your questions about open-source & open-weight AI in the comments! This is a super important topic that is novel to most people, and it can be challenging to grasp - so rest assured your questions are shared with many others!

Harper Carroll

17,279 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

.Josh Wolfe: Anybody Using DeepSeek App Is 'Absolute Fool' "Anybody using the DeepSeek app is an absolute fool. If you're using DeepSeek on companies like Together Compute, one of Lux's companies, which can get rid of the CCP censorship, then it's probably okay. But remember, the open-source movement is something we deeply believe in. Most great technologists, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists are on the side of open source. The closed-source models that have consumed tens of billions of dollars are the ones that are really going to be at risk. When you look at Hugging Face, a major repository, or Together Compute, Runway ML, and a lot of Lux's companies, they have been pioneers in open source. Now, why am I not worried about open source, even with the DeepSeek model? As long as you don't have the CCP censorship on it, the models with their open weights allow people to run on their proprietary data. This means companies like pharma or defense companies that have their own siloed, proprietary data—think about Bloomberg with their proprietary longitudinal data, or Meta with their data—are the ones who will have the edge. Even as open source takes hold, these companies will still dominate. I’m not worried about open source being the problem. I’m more concerned about people overfunding closed models with no proprietary source. A lot of capital is going to be burned there, and we’re already seeing that with people worried about OpenAI in some aspects."
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.Josh Wolfe: Anybody Using DeepSeek App Is 'Absolute Fool' "Anybody using the DeepSeek app is an absolute fool. If you're using DeepSeek on companies like Together Compute, one of Lux's companies, which can get rid of the CCP censorship, then it's probably okay. But remember, the open-source movement is something we deeply believe in. Most great technologists, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists are on the side of open source. The closed-source models that have consumed tens of billions of dollars are the ones that are really going to be at risk. When you look at Hugging Face, a major repository, or Together Compute, Runway ML, and a lot of Lux's companies, they have been pioneers in open source. Now, why am I not worried about open source, even with the DeepSeek model? As long as you don't have the CCP censorship on it, the models with their open weights allow people to run on their proprietary data. This means companies like pharma or defense companies that have their own siloed, proprietary data—think about Bloomberg with their proprietary longitudinal data, or Meta with their data—are the ones who will have the edge. Even as open source takes hold, these companies will still dominate. I’m not worried about open source being the problem. I’m more concerned about people overfunding closed models with no proprietary source. A lot of capital is going to be burned there, and we’re already seeing that with people worried about OpenAI in some aspects."

Josh Caplan

40,039 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Announcing the Open Model Series: a new series on open source AI models, with merve of Hugging Face. Hugging Face is the open model hub: it hosts model weights, datasets, evals, & demo apps, and maintains the open-source libraries (like transformers) used to run and train them. I think of it like GitHub, but for AI models. You can download open models and run them on your own machines. In this series we'll cover what open source and open weight models are, how they work, how to run them yourself, and why they're important. By the way - this video is edited entirely with Claude! I can make a tutorial on how I did it. If there's a question you want answered about open models, leave it in the comments. We will read them all. Episode 1 is out soon.
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Announcing the Open Model Series: a new series on open source AI models, with merve of Hugging Face. Hugging Face is the open model hub: it hosts model weights, datasets, evals, & demo apps, and maintains the open-source libraries (like transformers) used to run and train them. I think of it like GitHub, but for AI models. You can download open models and run them on your own machines. In this series we'll cover what open source and open weight models are, how they work, how to run them yourself, and why they're important. By the way - this video is edited entirely with Claude! I can make a tutorial on how I did it. If there's a question you want answered about open models, leave it in the comments. We will read them all. Episode 1 is out soon.

Harper Carroll

30,392 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Earlier this week at GTC, we announced our partnership with Nvidia. We will work with Nvidia to build strong, American open-source models that are at the frontier of scientific reasoning. These models will be essential for the US to compete with China on science in the coming decades. Jensen is committing to spend tens of billions of dollars developing open-source models, and we are excited to be a partner with them in figuring out how to benchmark, train and use those agents to accelerate scientific research. We have already open-sourced some of the work we have done with them, and are looking forward to open-sourcing more. There are few things today that are more important. See our blog post below, and watch the video to learn more, narrated by the man himself.
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Earlier this week at GTC, we announced our partnership with Nvidia. We will work with Nvidia to build strong, American open-source models that are at the frontier of scientific reasoning. These models will be essential for the US to compete with China on science in the coming decades. Jensen is committing to spend tens of billions of dollars developing open-source models, and we are excited to be a partner with them in figuring out how to benchmark, train and use those agents to accelerate scientific research. We have already open-sourced some of the work we have done with them, and are looking forward to open-sourcing more. There are few things today that are more important. See our blog post below, and watch the video to learn more, narrated by the man himself.

Sam Rodriques

24,338 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."
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FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

Forward Future

12,538 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

.Decagon co-founder and CEO Jesse Zhang says enterprise open-source adoption is falling right now, and that's a sign of adoption rather than rejection: "Even though there's a lot of hype for open-source, the share of open-source inference is actually going down right now." "People are spinning up all these new use cases, and if you're spinning up new use cases, of course you're gonna use the frontier models until they're working." "Once it's at that point, they're heavily incentivized to use open-source because it's way cheaper and faster." "Enterprises have a lot of desire to move, but they can only do so many use cases at once. There is inertia there, and they have to go through all the model risk governance and all the security things." "I think it'll take time, but it will get there." Jesse Zhang
0:49

.Decagon co-founder and CEO Jesse Zhang says enterprise open-source adoption is falling right now, and that's a sign of adoption rather than rejection: "Even though there's a lot of hype for open-source, the share of open-source inference is actually going down right now." "People are spinning up all these new use cases, and if you're spinning up new use cases, of course you're gonna use the frontier models until they're working." "Once it's at that point, they're heavily incentivized to use open-source because it's way cheaper and faster." "Enterprises have a lot of desire to move, but they can only do so many use cases at once. There is inertia there, and they have to go through all the model risk governance and all the security things." "I think it'll take time, but it will get there." Jesse Zhang

a16z

36,749 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

.Bill Gurley “I don’t think politicians understand how powerful open source is as a competitive weapon. If you have ten companies all doing open source, the minute an idea is shared, it's available to the other ten and they absorb it immediately. I think the odds that the U.S., with two proprietary models, can stay ahead of China, with ten open source ones, is very low.”
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.Bill Gurley “I don’t think politicians understand how powerful open source is as a competitive weapon. If you have ten companies all doing open source, the minute an idea is shared, it's available to the other ten and they absorb it immediately. I think the odds that the U.S., with two proprietary models, can stay ahead of China, with ten open source ones, is very low.”

Codie Sanchez

65,669 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”
0:40

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”

The All-In Podcast

87,353 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

David Sacks Predicts the Regulatory Capture Playbook to Ban Open Source AI, Step by Step: David Sacks: “I got bad news for you, Chamath, an open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed ones. Here's how they do it step by step, let me explain how regulatory capture actually works. So first of all, you have to get this regulatory apparatus. Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that, so instead they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI. They call it self-regulating, it's not really, but anyway, that gets them off the ground. Now they've created the standard-setting organization. Now they've got pre-release model testing. Then the pressure grows to codify that in law, so that happens next. And then what they do is they say, ‘Look, all these standards need to apply equally to all models.’ But here's the problem with that. Open models and closed models are technologically different. Once you release an open model into the world, you can't roll it back and you can't monitor exactly how people are using it because they run it on their own hardware. Dario says this is what makes open models dangerous. So what they're going to do is they're going to have the standard-setting body say, ‘Well, we have to set the standards for AI safety.’ By the way, Dario and OpenAI, they're going to fund the whole thing. They're going to contribute all the compute. They're going to be behind it. They're going to be the ones coordinating with the government officials because frankly, people in government have no idea how to monitor and control and set standards for AI safety. Technologically, this is way beyond them. So they're going to go to these companies and say, ‘Tell us how to do it.’ And so what will happen is the standards will get set, and then it'll be a very simple matter of fairness to say that the standards need to apply to open as well as closed models. The open models cannot comply in the same way, and gradually they will be shut out of the market.”
1:38

David Sacks Predicts the Regulatory Capture Playbook to Ban Open Source AI, Step by Step: David Sacks: “I got bad news for you, Chamath, an open source ban is coming. They're not going to call it that. They're going to say that we simply have to apply the same standards to open models that we apply to closed ones. Here's how they do it step by step, let me explain how regulatory capture actually works. So first of all, you have to get this regulatory apparatus. Dario wants an FDA for AI, but he doesn't have enough political support for that, so instead they do this Trojan horse of a FINRA for AI. They call it self-regulating, it's not really, but anyway, that gets them off the ground. Now they've created the standard-setting organization. Now they've got pre-release model testing. Then the pressure grows to codify that in law, so that happens next. And then what they do is they say, ‘Look, all these standards need to apply equally to all models.’ But here's the problem with that. Open models and closed models are technologically different. Once you release an open model into the world, you can't roll it back and you can't monitor exactly how people are using it because they run it on their own hardware. Dario says this is what makes open models dangerous. So what they're going to do is they're going to have the standard-setting body say, ‘Well, we have to set the standards for AI safety.’ By the way, Dario and OpenAI, they're going to fund the whole thing. They're going to contribute all the compute. They're going to be behind it. They're going to be the ones coordinating with the government officials because frankly, people in government have no idea how to monitor and control and set standards for AI safety. Technologically, this is way beyond them. So they're going to go to these companies and say, ‘Tell us how to do it.’ And so what will happen is the standards will get set, and then it'll be a very simple matter of fairness to say that the standards need to apply to open as well as closed models. The open models cannot comply in the same way, and gradually they will be shut out of the market.”

The All-In Podcast

299,247 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”
0:59

David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”

The All-In Podcast

278,276 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."
2:06

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

dnap

110,354 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Sam Altman warns of an impending wave of cyber attacks from open-source models that can soon do serious damage "The strongest message I have is you have to defend against this impending wave of cyber attacks. I think we are not that far away from open-source models that can do serious damage." "Clearly we should not stop open-source models from happening, that's important. But there is going to be this huge cyber threat that's going to come." "So while there is this little period of advantage, please use something to defend yourselves."
0:20

Sam Altman warns of an impending wave of cyber attacks from open-source models that can soon do serious damage "The strongest message I have is you have to defend against this impending wave of cyber attacks. I think we are not that far away from open-source models that can do serious damage." "Clearly we should not stop open-source models from happening, that's important. But there is going to be this huge cyber threat that's going to come." "So while there is this little period of advantage, please use something to defend yourselves."

Fireside Alpha

76,849 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

Why the largest enterprises will not use Chinese models and how regulation will enforce that "Given the regulatory environment in the US, it's probably more likely that we see a great American open-source competitor arise. We're going to have at least one massive, multi-hundred-billion-dollar, if not trillion-dollar, American company focused on American-first open source. The largest enterprises will want an American open source alternative." Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos What are large US enterprises more scared of; frontier models competing with them or Chinese models and data security? Jason Warner Eiso Kant Josh Wolfe Horace He Martin Ziqiao Ma John Schulman
0:23

Why the largest enterprises will not use Chinese models and how regulation will enforce that "Given the regulatory environment in the US, it's probably more likely that we see a great American open-source competitor arise. We're going to have at least one massive, multi-hundred-billion-dollar, if not trillion-dollar, American company focused on American-first open source. The largest enterprises will want an American open source alternative." Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos What are large US enterprises more scared of; frontier models competing with them or Chinese models and data security? Jason Warner Eiso Kant Josh Wolfe Horace He Martin Ziqiao Ma John Schulman

Harry Stebbings

19,299 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing... Anyone who's saying these closed models are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data." "Nikesh Arora said enterprises would like what he called model fungibility. They would love to commoditize these models and just hot swap them, headless. But then what do you do about memory, context, history? No one's really figured out a way to abstract that stuff away from the model yet."
0:58

David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing... Anyone who's saying these closed models are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data." "Nikesh Arora said enterprises would like what he called model fungibility. They would love to commoditize these models and just hot swap them, headless. But then what do you do about memory, context, history? No one's really figured out a way to abstract that stuff away from the model yet."

Fireside Alpha

54,456 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten