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Casey Handmer argues AI pricing is so elastic that Anthropic could raise subscription prices 10x to fund new gas turbines. If that’s true, why is solar still the future? “The learning rate for natural gas is nowhere near as steep as solar… there are very few manufactured products easier... show more

Dwarkesh Podcast

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27,107 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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Casey Handmer argues that investment in natural gas is doomed, even if there were no near-term geopolitical or financial risks from an AI bubble or China invading Taiwan. The fundamental problem: gas turbines need 20 years to pay back, but solar and batteries have already won on price. You're financing infrastructure that's economically obsolete before it's even built.

Casey Handmer argues that investment in natural gas is doomed, even if there were no near-term geopolitical or financial risks from an AI bubble or China invading Taiwan. The fundamental problem: gas turbines need 20 years to pay back, but solar and batteries have already won on price. You're financing infrastructure that's economically obsolete before it's even built.

Dwarkesh Podcast

22,049 次观看 • 1 年前

California's $2.2 billion solar farm in the Mojave Desert is shutting down after requiring natural gas to operate. It turns out that even in one of America's sunniest places, solar needed fossil fuels as backup. That's why it's called the Green New Scam.

California's $2.2 billion solar farm in the Mojave Desert is shutting down after requiring natural gas to operate. It turns out that even in one of America's sunniest places, solar needed fossil fuels as backup. That's why it's called the Green New Scam.

Daniel Turner

1,005,664 次观看 • 10 个月前

🚨“The Chinese, who manufacture virtually all of our solar panels…have been installing cellular radios inside the inverters, which can act as kill switches," says Michael Shellenberger "There was actually a Chinese solar company that turned off the solar panels and sent up a little message to its users, saying: we've turned this off because these solar panels are only authorized to be used in certain countries. …So we know that the Chinese solar companies—all of which essentially can be used as arms of the Chinese military…they are able to to switch off large amounts of solar. And if you are able to do that, then you are able to cause the de-powering and blackouts of the grid. How big of a problem is this? …I think most national security experts view this as something that the Chinese could do if there was, for example, an invasion of Taiwan, and the United States decided to defend Taiwan. The Chinese could potentially trigger blackouts in the United States and Europe. As crazy as that sounds, that is the reality."

🚨“The Chinese, who manufacture virtually all of our solar panels…have been installing cellular radios inside the inverters, which can act as kill switches," says Michael Shellenberger "There was actually a Chinese solar company that turned off the solar panels and sent up a little message to its users, saying: we've turned this off because these solar panels are only authorized to be used in certain countries. …So we know that the Chinese solar companies—all of which essentially can be used as arms of the Chinese military…they are able to to switch off large amounts of solar. And if you are able to do that, then you are able to cause the de-powering and blackouts of the grid. How big of a problem is this? …I think most national security experts view this as something that the Chinese could do if there was, for example, an invasion of Taiwan, and the United States decided to defend Taiwan. The Chinese could potentially trigger blackouts in the United States and Europe. As crazy as that sounds, that is the reality."

Jan Jekielek

549,335 次观看 • 1 年前

"It's still extremely early. We’re still in the Apple II computer era of solar. Conventional wisdom is that solar demand is going to saturate this week. We've got a graph here somewhere that's like, 'This year is it, it's never going to grow anymore.' Instead, it's just blasting out the top of the graph. This conventional wisdom is wrong. Not only are solar adoption, production, and price decreases continuing, they're accelerating. And the rate at which they're accelerating is still accelerating." Casey Handmer

"It's still extremely early. We’re still in the Apple II computer era of solar. Conventional wisdom is that solar demand is going to saturate this week. We've got a graph here somewhere that's like, 'This year is it, it's never going to grow anymore.' Instead, it's just blasting out the top of the graph. This conventional wisdom is wrong. Not only are solar adoption, production, and price decreases continuing, they're accelerating. And the rate at which they're accelerating is still accelerating." Casey Handmer

Dwarkesh Patel

117,020 次观看 • 1 年前

“Instead of holding the government accountable, we are always looking for alternatives in this country. Everybody keeps advising you to buy solar if you complain about electricity, but they forget to tell you that solar is not as reliable as electricity. Look at me, despite having up to 10 panels, I still can’t use my solar because it’s not charged.” — Man laments over the poor power supply and the constant push for solar as an alternative.

“Instead of holding the government accountable, we are always looking for alternatives in this country. Everybody keeps advising you to buy solar if you complain about electricity, but they forget to tell you that solar is not as reliable as electricity. Look at me, despite having up to 10 panels, I still can’t use my solar because it’s not charged.” — Man laments over the poor power supply and the constant push for solar as an alternative.

CHUKS 🍥

66,713 次观看 • 3 个月前

THE WORLD IS ALMOST ENTIRELY SOLAR-POWERED ALREADY. MOST PEOPLE KNOW THIS, BUT DON'T REALIZE THEY KNOW "I'm quite confident that the primary means of power generation will be solar As I mentioned earlier, we have to have sustainable electricity production as well as consumption It's really indirect fusion, is what it is. We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the Sun, and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy for purposes of human civilization What most people know, but don't realize they know, is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. If the Sun wasn't there, we would be a frozen ice ball at 3 degrees Kelvin. The Sun powers the entire system of precipitation; the whole ecosystem is solar-powered I'm confident that solar will beat everything hands down, including natural gas. It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system or you can lease a solar system. Most people choose to lease The thing about solar power is that it doesn't have any feedstock or operational costs. So once it's installed, it's just there. It works for decades; it'll work for probably a century Therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost of that initial installation low and then get the cost of financing low. Those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. We've made huge progress in that direction, and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas"

THE WORLD IS ALMOST ENTIRELY SOLAR-POWERED ALREADY. MOST PEOPLE KNOW THIS, BUT DON'T REALIZE THEY KNOW "I'm quite confident that the primary means of power generation will be solar As I mentioned earlier, we have to have sustainable electricity production as well as consumption It's really indirect fusion, is what it is. We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the Sun, and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy for purposes of human civilization What most people know, but don't realize they know, is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already. If the Sun wasn't there, we would be a frozen ice ball at 3 degrees Kelvin. The Sun powers the entire system of precipitation; the whole ecosystem is solar-powered I'm confident that solar will beat everything hands down, including natural gas. It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system or you can lease a solar system. Most people choose to lease The thing about solar power is that it doesn't have any feedstock or operational costs. So once it's installed, it's just there. It works for decades; it'll work for probably a century Therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost of that initial installation low and then get the cost of financing low. Those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar. We've made huge progress in that direction, and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas"

X Freeze

11,911 次观看 • 7 个月前

California has built one of the largest solar fleets in the world. Panels are strewn across deserts, rooftops and valleys, costing taxpayers billions of dollars. It was promised as the power of the future. Then the duck curve hit. Solar floods the grid during the height of the day, far more than California can use, so operators are forced to dump gigawatts of power. Then the sun sets and solar output collapses to zero, just as evening demand spikes. California then scrambles to fire up gas plants to keep the lights on,with billions more spent on this backup generation. The world's solar capital ends every day running on fossil fuels. A 24-7 gas grid would cost far less to construct and maintain than solar, and it would actually work 24-7.

California has built one of the largest solar fleets in the world. Panels are strewn across deserts, rooftops and valleys, costing taxpayers billions of dollars. It was promised as the power of the future. Then the duck curve hit. Solar floods the grid during the height of the day, far more than California can use, so operators are forced to dump gigawatts of power. Then the sun sets and solar output collapses to zero, just as evening demand spikes. California then scrambles to fire up gas plants to keep the lights on,with billions more spent on this backup generation. The world's solar capital ends every day running on fossil fuels. A 24-7 gas grid would cost far less to construct and maintain than solar, and it would actually work 24-7.

Electroverse

167,952 次观看 • 6 个月前

Reporter: Does the president support this new measure in the big beautiful bill that would impose steep new taxes on new wind and solar projects? Leavitt: I believe you are referring to the credits for wind and solar projects, and -- Reporter: No, there is a new tax that would add 10-20% of the cost of any new wind and solar projects. The national building trades union is saying it is the equivalent of terminating more than 1,000 keystone pipeline projects.

Reporter: Does the president support this new measure in the big beautiful bill that would impose steep new taxes on new wind and solar projects? Leavitt: I believe you are referring to the credits for wind and solar projects, and -- Reporter: No, there is a new tax that would add 10-20% of the cost of any new wind and solar projects. The national building trades union is saying it is the equivalent of terminating more than 1,000 keystone pipeline projects.

Acyn

3,294,944 次观看 • 1 年前

Elon Musk breaks down exactly why the energy crisis is harder to solve than people think—and why the ultimate solution is off-planet. Everyone asks, "Why not just build private power plants for data centers?" Musk drills down to the real bottleneck: it’s not just money, it’s physics and supply chains. The backlog for gas turbines is massive, specifically due to the specialized casting process required for turbine vanes and blades. You can't just wish those into existence. So, where do we go? Solar. But not just on Earth. Musk reveals that both SpaceX and Tesla are moving toward 100GW of solar cell production, with a surprising twist: Solar in space is actually cheaper to manufacture than solar on the ground. Why? • No weather = No heavy glass or framing needed. • 24/7 Sunlight = No batteries required. Musk argues that once launch costs drop, space becomes 10x cheaper and the most scalable way to "generate tokens." We are watching the infrastructure for the next era of compute being built in real-time.

Elon Musk breaks down exactly why the energy crisis is harder to solve than people think—and why the ultimate solution is off-planet. Everyone asks, "Why not just build private power plants for data centers?" Musk drills down to the real bottleneck: it’s not just money, it’s physics and supply chains. The backlog for gas turbines is massive, specifically due to the specialized casting process required for turbine vanes and blades. You can't just wish those into existence. So, where do we go? Solar. But not just on Earth. Musk reveals that both SpaceX and Tesla are moving toward 100GW of solar cell production, with a surprising twist: Solar in space is actually cheaper to manufacture than solar on the ground. Why? • No weather = No heavy glass or framing needed. • 24/7 Sunlight = No batteries required. Musk argues that once launch costs drop, space becomes 10x cheaper and the most scalable way to "generate tokens." We are watching the infrastructure for the next era of compute being built in real-time.

Ian Miles Cheong

40,081 次观看 • 6 个月前

Plots of empty desert could soon be worth more than the most fertile farmland in human history. Casey Handmer ran through the back-of-the-envelope math. 10 acres of solar is enough for 1 MW of H100s. And the FLOPS done by those H100s is roughly equivalent to 1000 human brains. If we build models that match human performance per FLOP, we could produce 100 humans' worth of cognition per acre of solar. And that's just the floor. Today's chips are far less energy-efficient than the brain, so the actual number could be bigger still by >50x. The implied land value is insane. The clear incentive would be to use up almost all the world's land for solar.

Plots of empty desert could soon be worth more than the most fertile farmland in human history. Casey Handmer ran through the back-of-the-envelope math. 10 acres of solar is enough for 1 MW of H100s. And the FLOPS done by those H100s is roughly equivalent to 1000 human brains. If we build models that match human performance per FLOP, we could produce 100 humans' worth of cognition per acre of solar. And that's just the floor. Today's chips are far less energy-efficient than the brain, so the actual number could be bigger still by >50x. The implied land value is insane. The clear incentive would be to use up almost all the world's land for solar.

Dwarkesh Patel

108,954 次观看 • 1 个月前

Gigascale Founder and former Meta CTO Mike Schroepfer says new solar startups will go after installation costs rather than compete with China on solar panels. "If you look at a solar farm, you lay down all this steel and put up all this framing for the panels. When that panel was the most expensive thing on the field, then [startups producing solar panels] made sense." "But solar panels are now the cheapest thing in the field. All the rest of the stuff costs more than the panel." "I think what we're going to see is startups saying, 'Let's rethink how we actually deploy solar from a form-factor and automation perspective. And just go after installation costs.'"

Gigascale Founder and former Meta CTO Mike Schroepfer says new solar startups will go after installation costs rather than compete with China on solar panels. "If you look at a solar farm, you lay down all this steel and put up all this framing for the panels. When that panel was the most expensive thing on the field, then [startups producing solar panels] made sense." "But solar panels are now the cheapest thing in the field. All the rest of the stuff costs more than the panel." "I think what we're going to see is startups saying, 'Let's rethink how we actually deploy solar from a form-factor and automation perspective. And just go after installation costs.'"

TBPN

40,535 次观看 • 2 个月前

As temperatures rise, “America is making a concerted effort to make the problem worse as fast as it possibly can,” argues environmentalist Bill McKibben. “We've shut down wind farms that are 90% finished off the Atlantic seaboard, put the federal land off-limits to solar panels, done every possible thing we could to buck up 18th century energy technology.”

As temperatures rise, “America is making a concerted effort to make the problem worse as fast as it possibly can,” argues environmentalist Bill McKibben. “We've shut down wind farms that are 90% finished off the Atlantic seaboard, put the federal land off-limits to solar panels, done every possible thing we could to buck up 18th century energy technology.”

Christiane Amanpour

128,368 次观看 • 20 天前

CEO & CTO of Impulse Space Tom Mueller Tom Mueller says the "future of propulsion is nuclear electrics": "Nuclear electric propulsion is going to be important for going out to the outer planets." "If you're staying near Earth or even between Earth and Mars, probably solar electric is going to outperform it on cost and performance because solar is now getting very light in space." "Especially if Elon Musk starts doing these data servers in space—they're going to really optimize the solar panels to be really light." "I think it's pretty far in the future, maybe a few decades away before we're really doing big nuclear stages." "But that is the next step."

CEO & CTO of Impulse Space Tom Mueller Tom Mueller says the "future of propulsion is nuclear electrics": "Nuclear electric propulsion is going to be important for going out to the outer planets." "If you're staying near Earth or even between Earth and Mars, probably solar electric is going to outperform it on cost and performance because solar is now getting very light in space." "Especially if Elon Musk starts doing these data servers in space—they're going to really optimize the solar panels to be really light." "I think it's pretty far in the future, maybe a few decades away before we're really doing big nuclear stages." "But that is the next step."

sourcery

27,884 次观看 • 2 个月前

Google just proposed a new AI data center in Van Buren Township—2.7 gigawatts. That’s right: 2.7 gigawatts, or the equivalent of 2 million homes worth of energy. To power that with solar? 12,000 football fields in solar panels. Why am I the only candidate for governor pushing back? This is absolutely unbelievable.

Google just proposed a new AI data center in Van Buren Township—2.7 gigawatts. That’s right: 2.7 gigawatts, or the equivalent of 2 million homes worth of energy. To power that with solar? 12,000 football fields in solar panels. Why am I the only candidate for governor pushing back? This is absolutely unbelievable.

Tom Leonard

29,041 次观看 • 5 个月前

Watch video as farmers are being asked to sell land for Solar Panels. 💥Don’t allow our rush to green energy override the very soil that sustains us. Did you know that 83% of planned solar development will take place on agricultural land? And worse still, nearly half of that land is “nationally significant” farmland in terms of productivity and stability? Solar panels aren’t as clean as they look. Most photovoltaic (PV) panels have toxic substances like cadmium, lead, and selenium. The toxic substances leach into the soil and groundwater over time and cause damage to the environment, particularly if panels are damaged during storms or due to mishandling. Not just agriculture is harmed by this type of pollution—it harms wildlife, ecosystems, and the local people who rely on clean water.

Watch video as farmers are being asked to sell land for Solar Panels. 💥Don’t allow our rush to green energy override the very soil that sustains us. Did you know that 83% of planned solar development will take place on agricultural land? And worse still, nearly half of that land is “nationally significant” farmland in terms of productivity and stability? Solar panels aren’t as clean as they look. Most photovoltaic (PV) panels have toxic substances like cadmium, lead, and selenium. The toxic substances leach into the soil and groundwater over time and cause damage to the environment, particularly if panels are damaged during storms or due to mishandling. Not just agriculture is harmed by this type of pollution—it harms wildlife, ecosystems, and the local people who rely on clean water.

🦅 Eagle Wings 🦅

31,953 次观看 • 1 年前

“So your telling me the burning ball in the sky is bad for us - how dumb do you think we are?” “Swedish Study on 25,000 Women showing avoiding the Sun was as bad as smoking” “Why are we building Solar Panels if we’re going to block out the Sun”

“So your telling me the burning ball in the sky is bad for us - how dumb do you think we are?” “Swedish Study on 25,000 Women showing avoiding the Sun was as bad as smoking” “Why are we building Solar Panels if we’re going to block out the Sun”

Concerned Citizen

230,849 次观看 • 1 年前

You will remember that a month or two ago, I posted about the solar system at my home in Johannesburg, which has allowed me to hardly use Eskom or City Power because it generates enough energy for my entire usage, including powering geysers. After that post, one of you on this page, a solar expert, reached out privately and advised me to remove the electric geysers from the main solar system. He said the solar batteries were doing too many cycles because they were powering the geysers, and that this would shorten their lifespan. His advice was simple, remove the geysers from the battery load if I wanted the batteries to last the full period that they are built for. I took that advice seriously. I then asked my plumber, Shanil, who owns Metro Plumbers, to guide me on where to get high-quality solar geysers in Johannesburg so that I could replace the electric ones. Shanil told me about a new technology called the Elon Smart Solar PV System. He explained that it is much cheaper than buying completely new solar geysers. Instead of replacing the electric geyser, you simply buy the Elon unit, which comes with its own solar panels, and it is fitted onto your existing electric geyser. That is what I did. I have now removed all four electric geysers from the home solar system that powers my home. Each of them has been converted using the Elon Smart Solar PV technology. They are now powered by their own dedicated solar panels. The four geysers are running on a total of thirteen panels. So what this means is that I will never use Eskom or City Power again because in the past, when it was cloudy for three or four days, I would return to the grid to assist the batteries. This was happening because the batteries were carrying a heavy load that included four geysers. Now that the geysers have been removed from the main solar system and converted to their own dedicated solar supply, I will never return to Eskom or City Power. Even on cloudy days unless the solar system breaks down. The system is able to generate enough power for everything that I need. I also use a gas cooker, which helps reduce the electrical load. I hope this information helps you. If I had gone for the top-quality geysers that are exclusively solar, I would have paid between R25,000 and R30,000 per geyser. That would have come to around R120,000 for four geysers. Of course, there are cheaper solar geysers that you can get, but they are cheaper for a reason. So, in essence, I saved half the amount I would have paid for the geysers if I had chosen top-quality solar geysers. If you are in Johannesburg and you are interested, Shanil’s number is +27 (76) 890-5582. He can do the work for you. The gadgets and their panels cost R60,000 from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead. So I have had the system in place for a week now and it is working very well. I have deliberately allowed all the geysers to continue heating so that I could test whether everything is functioning correctly, and the water is as hot as it should be. So that is the story. I thought I should share it with you for those who might want to reduce their bills. P/s The other interesting key feature of this system is that I can control it from my phone. If it is very cloudy and the water is not as hot as I want it to be, I can simply go onto the app and instruct that particular geyser to use the grid. Unlike my previous setup, where I had to switch the whole home solar system onto the grid, now each individual geyser can independently switch to the grid and heat the water to a temperature that I have set. Once the water reaches that set temperature, it automatically disconnects. I can also decide to switch off a geyser from using electricity, in my case from my solar system, or for those who do not have solar systems, from Eskom. In the same way, I can switch it off from using the solar panels. For instance, if there are four geysers and one of them is in a bedroom that is not being used, I can switch off that geyser completely so that it is not heating water unnecessarily. This gives you control, flexibility, and saves you a lot of money in the long run. You can read more about this technology here;

You will remember that a month or two ago, I posted about the solar system at my home in Johannesburg, which has allowed me to hardly use Eskom or City Power because it generates enough energy for my entire usage, including powering geysers. After that post, one of you on this page, a solar expert, reached out privately and advised me to remove the electric geysers from the main solar system. He said the solar batteries were doing too many cycles because they were powering the geysers, and that this would shorten their lifespan. His advice was simple, remove the geysers from the battery load if I wanted the batteries to last the full period that they are built for. I took that advice seriously. I then asked my plumber, Shanil, who owns Metro Plumbers, to guide me on where to get high-quality solar geysers in Johannesburg so that I could replace the electric ones. Shanil told me about a new technology called the Elon Smart Solar PV System. He explained that it is much cheaper than buying completely new solar geysers. Instead of replacing the electric geyser, you simply buy the Elon unit, which comes with its own solar panels, and it is fitted onto your existing electric geyser. That is what I did. I have now removed all four electric geysers from the home solar system that powers my home. Each of them has been converted using the Elon Smart Solar PV technology. They are now powered by their own dedicated solar panels. The four geysers are running on a total of thirteen panels. So what this means is that I will never use Eskom or City Power again because in the past, when it was cloudy for three or four days, I would return to the grid to assist the batteries. This was happening because the batteries were carrying a heavy load that included four geysers. Now that the geysers have been removed from the main solar system and converted to their own dedicated solar supply, I will never return to Eskom or City Power. Even on cloudy days unless the solar system breaks down. The system is able to generate enough power for everything that I need. I also use a gas cooker, which helps reduce the electrical load. I hope this information helps you. If I had gone for the top-quality geysers that are exclusively solar, I would have paid between R25,000 and R30,000 per geyser. That would have come to around R120,000 for four geysers. Of course, there are cheaper solar geysers that you can get, but they are cheaper for a reason. So, in essence, I saved half the amount I would have paid for the geysers if I had chosen top-quality solar geysers. If you are in Johannesburg and you are interested, Shanil’s number is +27 (76) 890-5582. He can do the work for you. The gadgets and their panels cost R60,000 from Plumbing Supplies Sanitaryware Centre in Woodmead. So I have had the system in place for a week now and it is working very well. I have deliberately allowed all the geysers to continue heating so that I could test whether everything is functioning correctly, and the water is as hot as it should be. So that is the story. I thought I should share it with you for those who might want to reduce their bills. P/s The other interesting key feature of this system is that I can control it from my phone. If it is very cloudy and the water is not as hot as I want it to be, I can simply go onto the app and instruct that particular geyser to use the grid. Unlike my previous setup, where I had to switch the whole home solar system onto the grid, now each individual geyser can independently switch to the grid and heat the water to a temperature that I have set. Once the water reaches that set temperature, it automatically disconnects. I can also decide to switch off a geyser from using electricity, in my case from my solar system, or for those who do not have solar systems, from Eskom. In the same way, I can switch it off from using the solar panels. For instance, if there are four geysers and one of them is in a bedroom that is not being used, I can switch off that geyser completely so that it is not heating water unnecessarily. This gives you control, flexibility, and saves you a lot of money in the long run. You can read more about this technology here;

Hopewell Chin’ono

67,897 次观看 • 9 个月前