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Chip War Author Chris Miller says China's spending on chips and data centers doesn't reflect the same sense of urgency around AGI seen in the U.S. In response, John Coogan asks whether China is actually behind or simply operating on a much longer timeline. Chris: The puzzle is why...

33,706 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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🚨Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd says "China is hoarding copper," which "indicates [it] might be getting ready for war" Dowd paints a GRIM picture of China, noting that its real estate market is "a disaster" and that it's "in a deflationary death spiral because of [its] demographics" "just because they're hoarding doesn't mean the war is imminent. It just means that they're... getting ready for something" "[But] as their economy continues to crumble, they're having the problem of consumers that are doing well... not spending—their saving and hoarding" "[and] there's going to be a lot of unemployed Chinese as we roll forward" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd) is taken from an interview with CapitalCosm (CapitalCosm) posted to YouTube on July 14, 2026. ----------------Partial transcription of clip-------------- "We think China is hoarding copper. China is taking— they're buying real assets. They keep printing money to the tune of 10% a year, and they're converting a lot of their trade surpluses into real assets. So they're hoarding. "Look, if you're going to hoard copper, that indicates you might be getting ready for war as well. So there seems to be a hoarding issue going on there. It's not an indication that things are really well in the economy. They continue to just buy and stockpile. "You know, look, just because they're hoarding doesn't mean the war is imminent. It just means that they're just— they're getting ready for something, and they're buying real assets. "One of the biggest problems we have with China is they're 47% of the global money supply. People don't know that... But they have very low velocity of money. That's why— and they're in a deflationary death spiral because of their demographics. So what they're doing with their money, in aggregate, is buying real assets. "And... I think our velocity of money is 1.5. China's I think is point .4 or .6. Much lower than ours. That's why, that's why you're not seeing any inflation in China. In fact, it's the opposite. The savings rate in China is exploding. There's no safety net there. "And as their economy continues to crumble, they're having, they're having the problem of the consumers that are doing well are not spending, their saving and hoarding. "[And the real estate market is] a disaster. But what held them up, the disaster started in 2021, but they had a bunch of long-lived projects that— so construction had only rolled 20%, whereas land, new permitting was down 70, 80%. So that's now starting to roll. "We saw construction year over year go negative in Q1 of this year. So those projects are now rolling off, and all they care about is employment, so there's going to be a lot of unemployed Chinese as we roll forward."

Sense Receptor

15,991 views • 1 month ago

In just 3 minutes, Ken Griffin (Citadel) & Larry Fink (BlackRock) explain the current state of government overspending, AI hype, & 2026 $600B data center CapEx "The world needs a savior, & the hope is that AI is the savior that we need for productivity." "The the area of recklessness is the spending of governments around the world, who are all, with little exception, all spending well beyond their means." Big issue: "Will AI create the productivity acceleration that is honestly just hoped for in Washington & in the halls of government around the world as a ways to overcome the profligate spending that we're currently engaged in?" Citadel BlackRock World Economic Forum . . . Ken Griffin "Let's take a step back and and talk about where we are right here right now. The the area of recklessness is the spending of governments around the world, who are all, with little exception, all spending well beyond their means. That's the recklessness of this moment in history. This is not a parallel to the 1920s in terms of the recklessness of the of the private capital markets. It's a story of the recklessness of government spending. Within the private sector there's a huge question as to where AI will take us. And I, I was carefully taking notes and listening to what Larry has to say, or to what Madame Lagarde has to say, because this is one of the big issues of our moment. Will AI create the productivity acceleration that is honestly just hoped for in Washington and in the halls of government around the world as a ways to overcome the profligate spending that we're currently engaged in? The world, the world needs a savior, and the hope is that AI is the savior that we need for productivity. And the challenge with this is it is, it may or may not be. We just don't know yet. Now there's a tremendous amount of hype around AI, and in some sense the large AI companies need to create that hype to raise the tens — or actually 100, hundreds of billions, right — of billions of dollars of investment that are going into the field. Like you wouldn't be able to raise hundreds of billions of dollars. We'll spend — and Larry can probably correct me on this — but roughly $600 billion this year in cap ex for data centers in the United States. Larry Fink "I think it could be larger." Andrew Ross Sorkin "But does that mean that it's getting hyped up too much, or it's just the the hype is required as a sales mechanism?" Larry Fink "First of all, so much of the data centers are being built for cloud, right? And and the big issue is gonna be in terms of monetization of of of the spend. The data centers are being built for AI requires more advanced chips. The question is what is the lifetime of that chip. If we have new technological changes in the lifetime of the chip in one year, then that spend is gonna be really a bad spend. If the lifetime as they expect it to be is 4 or 5 years and then those chips can be used for cloud, then then I think these investments are gonna prove to be good investments. So I think it's it's gonna be — you know, if the speed of technology changes and all these investments now, they're gonna be — it's gonna be a challenge. But I agree with Ken. I think we don't know enough, but I'm personally very optimistic on how AI is gonna affect the world economy."

Molly O’Shea

33,210 views • 7 months ago