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Chris Hohn on AI risk, moats, & disruption: “The world is changing so much that some of these moats, 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭𝐬, 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐛𝐲 𝐀𝐈 and other disruption forces. So the forces of disruption are actually rising.” How does Hohn think about navigating that risk? “You...

28,530 views • 7 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Chris Hohn on why Aerospace sits firmly in his investable universe: “Aerospace is a sector we’ve come to understand where the barriers to entry are multiple… hard assets, contracts, network effects… intellectual property, contracts, installed base, regulatory switching costs.” ___ 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙖𝙩 — 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙮. 𝙀𝙖𝙘𝙝 𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙧𝙪𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙧; 𝙩𝙤𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧, 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙧-𝙞𝙢𝙢𝙪𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙮. ___ Why multiple barriers matter: 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 → capital intensity discourages new entrants 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 → long-dated agreements with OEMs & airlines 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 → scale advantages in service, parts, and support 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 → decades of engineering know-how that can’t be replicated quickly 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 → once equipment is flying, customers can’t easily switch 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 & 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 → enormous time, cost, and risk to gain approval 𝐒𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 → safety, reliability, and downtime risks deter change 𝐄𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫. ___ 5 High-Quality Aerospace businesses worth adding to your watchlist: 1. $GE GE Aerospace 3-Year CAGR: +58% 2. $HWM Howmet Aerospace 3-Year CAGR: +76% 3. $TDG TransDigm Group 3-Year CAGR: +20% 4. $HEI Heico 3-Year CAGR: +23% 5. $RTX RTX Corporation 3-Year CAGR: +27% When investors talk about “disruption risk,” sectors with layered moats like aerospace are often underestimated. Patience — and respect for barriers — tends to be rewarded. ___ Video: Norges Bank Investment Mangement | Investment Conference 2025 (07/23/2025)

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®

30,291 views • 6 months ago

Investor Chris Hohn (2,924% returns since 2004) on 7 types of "moats" as Warren Buffett calls them: First Hohn clarifies that a "moat" means a business that is difficult to replace & compete with: "Those are…two risks: substitution risk & competition risk. They become very difficult to overcome long-term. And why is that so important? Competition kills profits…Substitution eliminates your business." Next, Hohn on the 7 moats: 1. Irreplaceable Physical Assets "One which most people don't look at—most investors don't really look at, interestingly—is irreplaceable physical assets. We're in a world where people just look at earnings. They don't look at asset value or physical assets. So we like quite a bit of infrastructure. Airports, for example, one of our investments has been the airport group in Spain that the government privatized, AENA. You can never build a second airport in Madrid or anywhere else. These are natural monopolies. That also applies to toll roads, railroads, and telecom towers." 2. Intellectual Property "A second [moat] is Intellectual Property that is so advanced it's very difficult to replicate. One space we like is aircraft engines. It's a very complicated product: the materials complexity, the temperatures these engines run at, the metals that would otherwise melt, the thousands of complex parts that all have to come together. That's a business where there are only two players in narrowbody engines and two in widebody, and there have been no new entrants for more than 50 years. The last new entrant was GE. It's a big industry, but it's so complex it's very hard to enter." 3. "Installed Base" "Another barrier to entry is Installed Base, which also applies to the aircraft engine business. Once those engines are there, you get the spare parts business that comes with them." 4. Scale "Scale is another barrier, though that's not a guarantee of a competitive moat." 5. Network Effects "Network Effects are another important barrier. You can see this in assets like Visa and Meta." 6. Brands "And Brands are another barrier to entry, though not every brand is powerful. A McDonald's has real value. Some brands are powerful and sustainable, but not all." 7. Customer Switching Costs "One more moat worth mentioning: Customer Switching costs. Take mission-critical software. Once it's installed, companies are very reluctant to mess with it and switch because of the complexity."

Investment Wisdom

26,399 views • 3 months ago

Hohn’s strategy essentially redefines quality as extreme resilience against substitution and competition over a multi-decade timeline. Hohn targets super-companies where physical, non-replicable assets create monopolistic barriers to entry, rendering executive talent largely irrelevant to the underlying cash flows. He deliberately avoids high-growth sectors vulnerable to disruption, viewing terminal value as the greatest source of alpha missed by short-term analysts. For instance, in infrastructure, he targets assets like cell towers, rail lines, and literal toll roads where tenancy ratios allow for near-100% margin expansion on zero-cost additions, and cash flow yields are contractually linked to inflation. In aerospace, his conviction is absolute. TCI's largest holding is $GE Aerospace. Hohn categorizes this as an unbreakable moat because the complexity of building aircraft engines has prevented any new market entrants in over 50 years. The true economic value, however, is not the engine itself, but the captive aftermarket spare parts and servicing ecosystem. Once an airline adopts an engine, the switching costs are effectively insurmountable, guaranteeing decades of highly predictable, high-margin revenue. Hohn’s view on moats is dynamic. He believes even the strongest moats can erode. In a definitive move in early 2026, TCI slashed a large portion of its $8B stake in $MSFT, which is a position held for nearly a decade. Hohn explicitly cited that the rapid advancement of Generative AI posed an existential risk to Microsoft's core Office and Azure moats, proving that he will mercilessly abandon a historically 'high quality' asset the moment technological disruption threatens its terminal value.

CapexAndChill

27,269 views • 3 months ago

𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐇𝐨𝐡𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧: “We have a long list of companies we don’t invest in… banks, commodity businesses, most manufacturing industries, fossil fuels, utilities, airlines, wireless telecom, advertising agencies… Why? Because they’re competitive. And the most important thing I’ve learned in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption.” ___ 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘏𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥𝘴: • Banks • Commodity businesses / manufacturing • Insurance • Tobacco • Fossil fuels • Utilities • Airlines • Wireless telecom • Advertising agencies • Most traditional manufacturing ___ Hohn’s point isn’t that money can’t be made in these areas — plenty of investors have done well in some of them. The deeper lesson: 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣. Highly competitive industries tend to: • Erode returns on capital • Compress margins over time • Require constant reinvestment Contrast that with businesses that have: • Pricing power • High switching costs • Network effects • Structural barriers to entry Those are the environments where 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 compounding becomes far more predictable. ___ Another subtle takeaway: Most investors focus heavily on upside narratives. Great investors spend just as much time thinking about downside structures. ___ Source: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®

78,952 views • 6 months ago