Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
@DimitryNakhla • 20,742 subscribers
Founder & Portfolio Manager | JD 🏛 | Long-Term Investor Focused on Quality Stocks at Reasonable Prices 💵 | Not Investment Advice ‼️
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At the Sohn Conference, Leon Shaulov and Alex Sacerdote were asked about AI’s impact on software $IGV: “If you’re a horizontal application-layer business, there’s a lot of trouble there. But if you’re a data-driven or infrastructure software company, you can succeed — and succeed very well.” Key silver lining from Alex: “Software tends to be incredibly sticky…. Nobody wants to rip out their existing system,” so real disruption could take years. ___ Positioned to succeed (data-driven or infrastructure layer – sticky, AI tailwinds): $CDNS $CRWD $DDOG $NET $NOW $PLTR $SNOW $SNPS More exposed (horizontal application-layer – facing pressure): $ASAN $HUBS $INTU $MNDY $TEAM $WDAY ___ 🎙️ Sohn Investment Conference | Leon Shaulov and Alex Sacerdote (05/28/2026)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®50,685 次观看 • 25 天前
Stanley Druckenmiller on selling losers: “If the reason I bought a stock is no longer the case, I don’t care what I paid for it and if I bought it at $60 and it’s $50 because the markets discovered the problem before me, I have no emotion whatsoever.” ___ Video: In Good Company
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®158,793 次观看 • 3 个月前
Warren Buffett was asked if Berkshire’s purchase of $AMZN (2019 at $89) was a departure from value investing. His answer cuts straight to the heart of what value investing actually means: “The idea that value is somehow connected to book value or low price to earnings ratios or anything, as Charlie has said all investing is value investing. You’re putting out money now to get more later — and making a calculation on the probability of getting it, and when.” ___ Buffett dismantles one of the most common misconceptions in investing. Value investing was never about low price-to-book ratios or cheap multiples. That’s a methodology — not a definition. The definition is simple: you’re paying a price today for a stream of future cash flows, and you’re asking whether you’re being adequately compensated. The label “value” vs. “growth” has always been a false dichotomy. All intelligent investing is value investing. ___ 🎙️ Berkshire 2019 Annual Meeting | CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (05/04/2019)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®78,851 次观看 • 2 个月前
Alex Sacerdote of Whale Rock Capital when asked about the best ways to play AI: “The second one is just Google. It’s simple. They’ve won AI… The stock is very cheap, and we’re going to see revenues accelerate at Google. So it could easily be up 50%. I don’t see very much downside.” $GOOGL $GOOG ___ 🎙️ Sohn Conference | Alex Sacerdote & Leon Shaulov (05/28/26)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®33,600 次观看 • 26 天前
Warren Buffett was asked what he means when he says he doesn’t understand a business. His answer: “It’s not a question of understanding the product. It’s the predictability of the economics of the situation 10 years out — and that’s our problem.” ___ Buffett isn’t saying he can’t understand what a business does. He understands steel. He understands homebuilding. The product, the distribution, the customers — that’s the easy part. What he’s asking is something far more demanding: can I predict the economics of this business with reasonable confidence a decade from now? That’s an entirely different question and why most businesses fall under the “too-hard” pile for Buffett. Here’s an exercise worth trying the next time you’re reviewing a stock: Take a blank piece of paper. No spreadsheet. No model. Just write out your best estimates of what revenues, free cash flow, and earnings will look like over the next five years. Then calculate what you’re paying for the entire business today — and ask yourself honestly whether you’re being well compensated for that ownership. Your estimates will likely be off. That’s fine. That’s not the point. The point is to notice which businesses you can make confident assumptions about five years out — and which ones leave you staring at a “confused page”. That gap in confidence is exactly what Buffett is talking about. You can see an example of how to do this in Rose Celine Investments 🌹 post on $DLO ___ 🎙️ Berkshire 2000 Annual Meeting | CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (04/29/2000)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®42,278 次观看 • 2 个月前
𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬 𝐇𝐨𝐡𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐢𝐧: “We have a long list of companies we don’t invest in… banks, commodity businesses, most manufacturing industries, fossil fuels, utilities, airlines, wireless telecom, advertising agencies… Why? Because they’re competitive. And the most important thing I’ve learned in investing is that investors underestimate the forces of competition and disruption.” ___ 𝘐𝘯𝘥𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘏𝘰𝘩𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘪𝘥𝘴: • Banks • Commodity businesses / manufacturing • Insurance • Tobacco • Fossil fuels • Utilities • Airlines • Wireless telecom • Advertising agencies • Most traditional manufacturing ___ Hohn’s point isn’t that money can’t be made in these areas — plenty of investors have done well in some of them. The deeper lesson: 𝙄𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙨 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙨 𝙞𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙗𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣. Highly competitive industries tend to: • Erode returns on capital • Compress margins over time • Require constant reinvestment Contrast that with businesses that have: • Pricing power • High switching costs • Network effects • Structural barriers to entry Those are the environments where 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨-𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮 compounding becomes far more predictable. ___ Another subtle takeaway: Most investors focus heavily on upside narratives. Great investors spend just as much time thinking about downside structures. ___ Source: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®78,952 次观看 • 4 个月前
Warren Buffett on economists and stock market predictions: “They don’t make a lot of money buying and selling stocks — but people who buy and sell stocks listen to them.” ___ The lesson is one Buffett has reinforced throughout his entire career. He and Munger never spent much time on macro. Interest rates, GDP forecasts, credit cycles — largely irrelevant to the actual work of investing. At the end of the day, all that matters is what a business is worth — and what it’s trading for today. Everything else is noise dressed up as “insight.” Even Keynes — one of the greatest economic minds in history — tried predicting macro variables to pick stocks. He went broke a couple of times doing it and only found success when he abandoned that approach entirely and settled on buying good businesses cheap, in concentrated positions, that he truly understood. ___ 🎙️ CNBC Interview (02/29/2016)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®37,244 次观看 • 2 个月前
Mark Zuckerberg was asked to describe the business AI agent opportunity at $META. The answer is worth paying attention to. A few things that stood out: 💸 The end goal for advertising: any business comes with an objective and a budget — $META delivers the results. Zuck calls it “the ultimate business results machine.” 📈 Advertising has historically been ~1% of global GDP — but that includes enormous inefficiency. As it transforms into an AI-driven results machine, that share grows. 🤖 Every business will have an AI agent living in messaging platforms handling customer support and sales. Thailand and Vietnam are already the proof of concept — and they’re META’s 10th and 11th revenue countries despite ranking in the 30s by global GDP. 💬 WhatsApp, from a revenue perspective, is just getting started. ___ 🎙️ YouTube: Stripe | A conversation with Mark Zuckerberg (05/08/2025)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®40,317 次观看 • 2 个月前
Investors may be underestimating the optionality of $META AI glasses. In a conversation with Jensen Huang, Mark Zuckerberg laid out the vision — and it’s bigger than most realize. Ray-Ban $META glasses started with a simple constraint: make something that looks great, and fit as much technology as possible within that form factor. Camera, microphone, speakers, live streaming, WhatsApp video calls. But then the unexpected happened — that same sensor package turned out to be exactly what you need to talk to AI. That wasn’t the plan. It happened organically. And it changes the trajectory of the product potential. Zuckerberg’s projection: displayless AI glasses at a ~$300 price point becoming a product that tens — potentially hundreds — of millions of people eventually own. Ambient AI interaction built into something people already wear. Real-time translation. Visual language understanding. Etc. The optionality here is meaningful. $NVDA $EL.PA ___ YouTube: Nvidia | AI and The Next Computing Platforms With Jensen Huang and Mark Zuckerberg (07/29/2024)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®38,695 次观看 • 2 个月前
Stanley Druckenmiller on what he learned from George Soros: “𝘐𝘯 𝘣𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘣𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘢 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩 𝘣𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦. 𝘏𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘥 𝘢 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘭𝘶𝘨𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦… 𝙒𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙄 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙎𝙤𝙧𝙤𝙨 𝙞𝙨: 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙫𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙗𝙚𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙗𝙞𝙜.” The idea isn’t to always be active. It’s to size up when the odds are most in your favor. The quote frequently attributed to Soros: “𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶’𝘳𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘵, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙝𝙤𝙬 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙚𝙮 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪’𝙧𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙝𝙤𝙬 𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪’𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜.” This ties closely to Warren Buffett’s punch card concept: if you only had a limited number of investment decisions in your lifetime, you’d reserve them for your very best ideas. Which makes today interesting. Aggressive selloffs across many high-quality businesses — alongside justified but severe multiple compression and muted expectations — are creating a growing menu of potential high-conviction opportunities. Not a call to swing at everything. But a reminder to be selective… and size up when your conviction is highest. $FICO $SPGI $MCO $MSFT $CSU $NDAQ $ICE $NOW $INTU $TDG $NFLX $NVDA ___ Video: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (11/06/2024)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®33,594 次观看 • 4 个月前
Mohnish Pabrai on $ASML: “Enduring moats are few and far between… $ASML may stay forever. I mean, that’s like black magic.” ___ Moat assessment isn’t just about today. It’s about 𝐝𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. A moat that erodes in 5 years is a false sense of security. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 — where being ahead makes it harder, not easier, to be caught. $ASML has that. A monopoly on the machines the entire semiconductor world depends on. No viable alternative and no credible challenger. When you find something like that — you own it. ___ YouTube: We Study Billionaires TIP719 (05/03/25)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®22,170 次观看 • 2 个月前
Bill Ackman on Psychology of Investing 🧠 “You have to get excited when things get cheaper and get concerned when things get more expensive… Stocks can trade at any price in the short term. If you know what a business is worth and understand it extremely well, volatility bothers you much less… It’s a combination of being personally secure and knowing what you own. Over time, you build calluses… I’m a pretty emotional person — but not in investing.” 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝘛𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘢 𝘥𝘦𝘦𝘱 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘱𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦. ___ 1️⃣ 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐬𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐬𝐲𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲 Large drawdowns don’t just test portfolios — they test 𝘣𝘪𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘺. Sharp declines can trigger the same fight-or-flight response governed by the 𝘢𝘮𝘺𝘨𝘥𝘢𝘭𝘢. When that switch flips, decision-making shifts from logic → survival. 𝐀𝐜𝐤𝐦𝐚𝐧’𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭: 𝘐𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘮𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘱𝘴𝘺𝘤𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘣𝘭𝘦. 𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘯’𝘵 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥, 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘷𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺. ___ 2️⃣ 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 Volatility feels very different when you deeply understand: What the business is worth The fundamental drivers of value The durability of its moat 𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘤 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵, 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘰𝘱𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘺. 𝘐𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘰𝘸𝘯, 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴. 𝘖𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘦𝘹𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 — 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘶𝘮𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘵 𝘣𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴. ___ 3️⃣ 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐟 Ackman openly acknowledges being emotional. That honesty is critical. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘭 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘧 — 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘪𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘧𝘰𝘰𝘭.” — Richard Feynman We’re all human. 𝐅𝐞𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝙣𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙡. 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐮𝐥𝐬𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐢𝐬 𝙤𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡. Great investors build systems: Preset rules Allocation frameworks Behavioral guardrails Over time, experience itself becomes conditioning. Just as David Goggins speaks about 𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨, 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙗𝙪𝙞𝙡𝙙 𝙥𝙨𝙮𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙡𝙤𝙜𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙫𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮. You develop “mental calluses.” 𝙑𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙥𝙨 𝙛𝙚𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙙𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙧 — 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙨 𝙛𝙚𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨. ___ Video: Lex Fridman Poscast (02/20/2024) Bill Ackman
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®30,829 次观看 • 4 个月前
Chris Hohn on Google & an underrated investing lesson $GOOGL $GOOG: “We have a position in Alphabet… Maybe our most ‘risky’ investment… We have some level of protection because there are businesses like YouTube, and their Cloud business… We think they have a lot advantages of their data.” ___ 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘰𝘯: 𝙎𝙤𝙢𝙚𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙡𝙤𝙤𝙠𝙨 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠𝙞𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙞𝙣𝙫𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙗𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙗𝙚𝙘𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚 𝙛𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩-𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 𝙥𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙨𝙢 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙡𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣, 𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖 𝙡𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙞𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝙨𝙖𝙛𝙚𝙩𝙮. ___ That was the case here — since this interview was published, $GOOG is up +94% Risk isn’t just about headlines or narratives. It’s about price vs. fundamentals, downside protection, and whether pessimism has gone too far. 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘺 — not around it. ___ Video: In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management (05/14/2025)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®31,243 次观看 • 4 个月前
Chris Hohn on why Aerospace sits firmly in his investable universe: “Aerospace is a sector we’ve come to understand where the barriers to entry are multiple… hard assets, contracts, network effects… intellectual property, contracts, installed base, regulatory switching costs.” ___ 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙤𝙣 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙢𝙤𝙖𝙩 — 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙮. 𝙀𝙖𝙘𝙝 𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙚𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙧𝙪𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙚𝙧; 𝙩𝙤𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙧, 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙖𝙧-𝙞𝙢𝙢𝙪𝙣𝙞𝙩𝙮. ___ Why multiple barriers matter: 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 → capital intensity discourages new entrants 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 → long-dated agreements with OEMs & airlines 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 → scale advantages in service, parts, and support 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 → decades of engineering know-how that can’t be replicated quickly 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞 → once equipment is flying, customers can’t easily switch 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 & 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 → enormous time, cost, and risk to gain approval 𝐒𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬 → safety, reliability, and downtime risks deter change 𝐄𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫. ___ 5 High-Quality Aerospace businesses worth adding to your watchlist: 1. $GE GE Aerospace 3-Year CAGR: +58% 2. $HWM Howmet Aerospace 3-Year CAGR: +76% 3. $TDG TransDigm Group 3-Year CAGR: +20% 4. $HEI Heico 3-Year CAGR: +23% 5. $RTX RTX Corporation 3-Year CAGR: +27% When investors talk about “disruption risk,” sectors with layered moats like aerospace are often underestimated. Patience — and respect for barriers — tends to be rewarded. ___ Video: Norges Bank Investment Mangement | Investment Conference 2025 (07/23/2025)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®30,291 次观看 • 4 个月前
Warren Buffett on how he looks at stocks: “When we buy a stock, we would be happy with that stock if they told us the market was going to close for a couple of years… Quotes would have nothing to do with it… That’s exactly the way we look at stocks. We look at them as businesses.” The lesson is simple yet most investors never internalize it. A stock price is not the business. The quote is noise. The business is signal. If your judgment about the business is correct, the price takes care of itself — eventually, on its own timeline. ___ 🎙️ CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (2008)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®13,096 次观看 • 1 个月前
Warren Buffett on the temperament required to invest well: “If you have a temperament that when others are fearful you’re gonna get scared yourself, you’re not gonna make a lot of money in securities over time. We think just the opposite. When it goes down we love it because we’ll buy more. If it goes up it kills us to buy more.” ___ Value is usually most prevalent during moments of peak fear — when rationality gets thrown out the window and price becomes completely disconnected from the underlying business. Those are the moments that create the largest mispricings. But they are also the moments when every instinct, every headline, and every voice around you is screaming to sell. The advantage doesn’t go to the smartest investor in the room. It goes to the one capable of thinking rationally in the precise moment when everyone else cannot. ___ 🎙️ CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (2010)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®11,621 次观看 • 1 个月前
Warren Buffett’s response when asked if he has an opinion on the stock market: “Charlie and I never have an opinion about the market because it wouldn’t be any good… If we think a business is attractive, it wouldn’t be very foolish for us to not take action on that because we thought something about what the market was going to do or anything of that sort… To give up something that you do know and is profitable for something that you don’t know and won’t know because of that, it doesn’t make any sense to us.” ___ Video: CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (1994)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®25,238 次观看 • 4 个月前
Chris Hohn on AI risk, moats, & disruption: “The world is changing so much that some of these moats, 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭𝐬, 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐛𝐲 𝐀𝐈 and other disruption forces. So the forces of disruption are actually rising.” How does Hohn think about navigating that risk? “You really want something that’s obvious… 𝙨𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙮.” ___ So what are barriers to entry? 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐭 𝐨𝐫 𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. Some of the most important ones 👇🏽 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐬𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐬: Customers face real friction (cost, risk, workflow disruption) if they leave 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞: Large embedded footprint that compounds over time 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐱 𝐈𝐏: Deep patents, proprietary designs, or trade secrets 𝐍𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬: Product becomes more valuable as more users participate 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐥𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 / 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰-𝐡𝐨𝐰: Decades of accumulated expertise that can’t be shortcut 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐞: Massive physical or digital build-out that’s hard to replicate 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲 / 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭: Standards, certifications, or regulatory embedment ___ Hohn has emphasized that 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫. 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙞𝙡𝙚. 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚. Examples 👇🏽 $ASML → Installed base, extreme IP complexity, knowledge moat, high switching costs, infrastructure scale $FICO → Regulatory embedment, network effects, switching costs, data advantage $MSFT → Switching costs, network effects, ecosystem lock-in, scale infrastructure $SPGI → Regulatory reliance, switching costs, network effects, brand trust $AMZN → Infrastructure scale, switching costs (AWS + Prime), ecosystem lock-in, data advantages $ICE → Regulatory licenses, switching costs, network effects, mission-critical infrastructure $TDG → Proprietary IP, certification barriers, sole-source positions, high switching costs ___ 𝐁𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐦 𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞: 𝐀𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐭𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐨𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐚𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞. ___ Video: Money Maze Podcast (11/13/25)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®28,530 次观看 • 4 个月前
Pulak Prasad on why macro doesn’t matter in investing: “𝐖𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐳𝐞𝐫𝐨 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐦𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨… 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲, 𝐰𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐤 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐭… 𝐰𝐞 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬.” The part that stands out most isn’t just that they ignore macro — it’s that 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘬 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵. That’s intentional. It helps insulate himself — and the culture of his firm — from that distraction, which can easily induce short-term thinking. It removes distraction, filters out noise, and keeps the 𝙛𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙩 𝙨𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙡𝙙 𝙗𝙚: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙞𝙩𝙨𝙚𝙡𝙛. Because macro tends to pull you into short-term thinking, even when you’re trying to be long-term. As Warren Buffett once said: “To give up something that you do know and is profitable for something that you don’t know… doesn’t make any sense.” 🗣️ Peter Lynch put it even more bluntly: “If you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted 10.” 🗣️ 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐝𝐠𝐞 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐤𝐧𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞. 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫, 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫. ___ Video: Pulak Prasad & CA Ronit Pereira (07/16/25)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®12,806 次观看 • 3 个月前
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