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Coinbase CEO confirmed: insider trading is 100% necessary for prediction markets Brian Armstrong: "If you want truth about the world, insiders are the only path" Here's the truth we must accept: - Stock markets: insider kills "fair play" - Prediction markets: insider creates "truth signal" - They compete with...

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Lirratø

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881,873 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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"Prediction markets are truth machines." Vlad talked about how the trading and speculating in prediction markets cuts through a ton of noise and gets surprisingly close to truth. And then I made some random comment about cows which looking back was unnecessary.
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"Prediction markets are truth machines." Vlad talked about how the trading and speculating in prediction markets cuts through a ton of noise and gets surprisingly close to truth. And then I made some random comment about cows which looking back was unnecessary.

Jack Altman

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NEW: As Kalshi and Polymarket pummel Americans with ads ahead of the Big Game, you need to know that insider trading is a big problem for these prediction markets. You might not be trading against the house, but you could be trading against someone who knows the right answer, from the inside, with little restrictions. Know the truth.
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NEW: As Kalshi and Polymarket pummel Americans with ads ahead of the Big Game, you need to know that insider trading is a big problem for these prediction markets. You might not be trading against the house, but you could be trading against someone who knows the right answer, from the inside, with little restrictions. Know the truth.

More Perfect Union

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REPORTER: “Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets for the Iran war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” Trump isn’t concerned with insider trading bc his entire family is fleecing the American people.
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REPORTER: “Are you concerned about insider trading on these prediction markets for the Iran war?” TRUMP: “The world is a casino. It is what it is.” Trump isn’t concerned with insider trading bc his entire family is fleecing the American people.

Stew Peters

174,623 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

UNREAL: REPORTER: "Are you concerned about insider trading on prediction markets re: the war?" TRUMP: "The world is a casino. It is what it is." This is insane. We've been tracking it for weeks. Trump admin insiders are front-running every policy decision. They're extracting billions out of the markets. The President doesn't seem to care.
0:38

UNREAL: REPORTER: "Are you concerned about insider trading on prediction markets re: the war?" TRUMP: "The world is a casino. It is what it is." This is insane. We've been tracking it for weeks. Trump admin insiders are front-running every policy decision. They're extracting billions out of the markets. The President doesn't seem to care.

Crypto Rover

643,185 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

For centuries, prediction markets have been used to manage risk. Now, these tools are finally reaching everyday Americans. We believe you deserve the same insight into the future. We’re promoting regulated, fair and open access to these tools, ensuring the future belongs to everyday people, not the special interests who profit from confusion. The CFTC regulates these markets, just like the SEC oversees the NYSE. We are working to create a level playing field for users. It’s time to protect truth over noise. Let’s protect safe, fair markets.
1:33

For centuries, prediction markets have been used to manage risk. Now, these tools are finally reaching everyday Americans. We believe you deserve the same insight into the future. We’re promoting regulated, fair and open access to these tools, ensuring the future belongs to everyday people, not the special interests who profit from confusion. The CFTC regulates these markets, just like the SEC oversees the NYSE. We are working to create a level playing field for users. It’s time to protect truth over noise. Let’s protect safe, fair markets.

Coalition for Prediction Markets

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“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”
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“In Predictive Allocation you are allocating capital to where you think markets need to exist next. Prediction markets are for bets on what you think is true, they create asymmetric upside but not the actual outcomes. What if you could do that, while bootstrapping new markets?”

Aerodrome

26,482 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!
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Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?
0:49

Insider trading is a feature of Polymarket. A Google employee making $1M+ on search trends is simply efficient price discovery. Platform does not ask if your advantage is fair. It only asks if you are right But this logic leads to a dark place: Assassination Markets. If a market allows bets on a death, it creates a direct financial incentive to... resolve the market When millions are on the line, the platform stops being a passive mirror of the future and becomes an engine for shaping it Are Prediction Markets the most honest and cynical technology of our time?

Lirratø

212,694 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

"Insider trading is sort of an inevitability... there's a lot of benefits from it. People will adapt." Polymarket's CEO admits this openly To the mainstream, this sounds insane - but here is the undeniable truth: - Real insiders trading = markets get god-tier signals retail can't access anywhere else - "Early news" becomes literal tomorrow's headlines priced in NOW, beating CNBC by days - Sharp money from leaks sharpens odds, turning Polymarket into the ultimate truth machine - CFTC is even debating legalizing it. Trump Jr is advising Prediction markets just obsoleted traditional news Legacy media will soon be forced to integrate probabilities backed by real skin in the game Game over.
0:57

"Insider trading is sort of an inevitability... there's a lot of benefits from it. People will adapt." Polymarket's CEO admits this openly To the mainstream, this sounds insane - but here is the undeniable truth: - Real insiders trading = markets get god-tier signals retail can't access anywhere else - "Early news" becomes literal tomorrow's headlines priced in NOW, beating CNBC by days - Sharp money from leaks sharpens odds, turning Polymarket into the ultimate truth machine - CFTC is even debating legalizing it. Trump Jr is advising Prediction markets just obsoleted traditional news Legacy media will soon be forced to integrate probabilities backed by real skin in the game Game over.

Lirratø

52,759 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Every betting app on your phone is mathematically rigged against you Polymarket CMO calls the entire traditional betting industry "predatory" by nature Prediction markets are the only escape, and here is the difference:​ - Sportsbooks only offer odds that guarantee their profit - They arbitrage the lines so they mathematically cannot lose - Winning too much? Your cashouts get locked. Limits get slashed - Prediction markets remove the House entirely. No vig. No bans. Peer-to-peer truth DraftKings is already preparing to launch their own prediction market product They know this is the inevitable future and aren't fighting it "Whatever benefits users more - that product wins" Matthew Modabber The "House always wins" era is ending
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Every betting app on your phone is mathematically rigged against you Polymarket CMO calls the entire traditional betting industry "predatory" by nature Prediction markets are the only escape, and here is the difference:​ - Sportsbooks only offer odds that guarantee their profit - They arbitrage the lines so they mathematically cannot lose - Winning too much? Your cashouts get locked. Limits get slashed - Prediction markets remove the House entirely. No vig. No bans. Peer-to-peer truth DraftKings is already preparing to launch their own prediction market product They know this is the inevitable future and aren't fighting it "Whatever benefits users more - that product wins" Matthew Modabber The "House always wins" era is ending

Lirratø

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They are attacking me because I speak for you. I want to tell you the truth they don’t want you to know. The truth about what is happening to Britain. It really is that simple. If you want to support me then pick up a copy of the book. Thank you.
3:58

They are attacking me because I speak for you. I want to tell you the truth they don’t want you to know. The truth about what is happening to Britain. It really is that simple. If you want to support me then pick up a copy of the book. Thank you.

Matt Goodwin

76,791 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Most media gets paid for attention. Prediction markets get paid for being right. That's why the future of information may look very different from the past. When real money is attached to predictions, truth becomes measurable, incentives align, and the crowd often outperforms the experts. The most interesting idea from the Kalshi Founder interview with MR SHIFT 🦁 "Prediction Markets aren't competing with finance. They're competing with media." The future may not be headlines. The future may be probabilities. Follow Kalshi & MR SHIFT 🦁
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Most media gets paid for attention. Prediction markets get paid for being right. That's why the future of information may look very different from the past. When real money is attached to predictions, truth becomes measurable, incentives align, and the crowd often outperforms the experts. The most interesting idea from the Kalshi Founder interview with MR SHIFT 🦁 "Prediction Markets aren't competing with finance. They're competing with media." The future may not be headlines. The future may be probabilities. Follow Kalshi & MR SHIFT 🦁

Akash.eth🌊

16,330 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The Signal In The Noise. The exclusive Brian Roemmele interview on the local AI Model that tracks the prediction markets. This is not gambling. It is participation in the most sophisticated collective intelligence mechanism available: markets that reward accuracy and penalize error. In this age of accelerating change, those who develop disciplined edges and prudent hedges position themselves not as passive observers but as active navigators of the future. In the future we will seek the truth, but we will also price it.
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The Signal In The Noise. The exclusive Brian Roemmele interview on the local AI Model that tracks the prediction markets. This is not gambling. It is participation in the most sophisticated collective intelligence mechanism available: markets that reward accuracy and penalize error. In this age of accelerating change, those who develop disciplined edges and prudent hedges position themselves not as passive observers but as active navigators of the future. In the future we will seek the truth, but we will also price it.

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51,009 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen

In a world where fake news spreads faster than real data, having verifiable and transparent information is more crucial than ever. That’s why prediction markets are changing the game, offering accurate, community-driven insights you can trust. Built on the fully decentralized Truth Network, these markets ensure that every piece of information is transparent, verifiable, and tamper-proof. We’re not just improving predictions, we’re laying the foundation for trust in Web3.
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In a world where fake news spreads faster than real data, having verifiable and transparent information is more crucial than ever. That’s why prediction markets are changing the game, offering accurate, community-driven insights you can trust. Built on the fully decentralized Truth Network, these markets ensure that every piece of information is transparent, verifiable, and tamper-proof. We’re not just improving predictions, we’re laying the foundation for trust in Web3.

PRDCTR.io

12,457 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

This world now sugar coats the gospel and teaches that it’s ok to live the way we want to because Jesus loves us for who we are- but that’s not the truth. We need to stop tip toeing around the truth and be ok with getting our feelings hurt.
2:20

This world now sugar coats the gospel and teaches that it’s ok to live the way we want to because Jesus loves us for who we are- but that’s not the truth. We need to stop tip toeing around the truth and be ok with getting our feelings hurt.

Ashley Hays

45,706 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion
46:11

DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusion

MR SHIFT 🦁

31,065 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

This is a $MUST watch if you want to learn the truth It may go all the way to the top and I fear I've only scratched the surface. They are turning the people based!
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This is a $MUST watch if you want to learn the truth It may go all the way to the top and I fear I've only scratched the surface. They are turning the people based!

JackWyldes ⌐◨-◨

22,190 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The amount of truth that was just dropped in this interview is virtually unprecedented. For good men with convictions are tasked to act on them, no matter what the cost. Dan Bilzerian has absolutely nothing to gain from telling the truth and far more to lose than most. Yet, for good men, silence is not an option. Whats your excuse for your silence? Fear is their method of control. They want you afraid to speak the truth. They want you in fear losing your job and your possessions. They want you to accept the chains that bind you and keep you enslaved and under their control. Yet, the truth will set you free. If you have never heard the truth before, here it is in all its glory. Now go and tell it to others. If you are still too afraid to speak the truth, you should be thanking this man for having the balls to speak it for you.
2:46

The amount of truth that was just dropped in this interview is virtually unprecedented. For good men with convictions are tasked to act on them, no matter what the cost. Dan Bilzerian has absolutely nothing to gain from telling the truth and far more to lose than most. Yet, for good men, silence is not an option. Whats your excuse for your silence? Fear is their method of control. They want you afraid to speak the truth. They want you in fear losing your job and your possessions. They want you to accept the chains that bind you and keep you enslaved and under their control. Yet, the truth will set you free. If you have never heard the truth before, here it is in all its glory. Now go and tell it to others. If you are still too afraid to speak the truth, you should be thanking this man for having the balls to speak it for you.

1984

140,957 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren