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DROPS E39: Worm - The permissionless truth machine Nass Diba studied quantum physics, worked at Facebook, then left to build in crypto. He's now building Worm - a permissionless prediction market on Solana with leverage. His thesis: prediction markets are the only mechanism that consistently surfaces truth, and they're... about to matter more than ever. He grew up in Iran under a dictatorship. He watched state TV claim there was no inflation while the money in people's pockets shrank. That's not a metaphor for him - it's the problem he's building to solve. We talk about: - Why CNN and Fox both showed different election results in 2024 - Growing up in Iran and experiencing information asymmetry under dictatorship firsthand - Building a Poly Market Telegram mini app in September 2024 and getting 56,000 users overnight - Why 90% of those users weren't American - and what that revealed about the technology - How leverage works on prediction markets, why it took 9 months to build, and what liquidation actually means when there's no price - just probability - Why Polymarket and Kalshi are scratching the surface of what's possible - Prediction markets as the engagement layer for Web3 - and what Worm is launching on HyperLiquid HIP-4 And much more… Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction 1:17 Welcome to DROPS 1:57 Prediction Markets in 2026 3:08 Can the crowd be wrong? 4:26 Money Creates Better Truth Discovery 5:22 Who is Nass? 5:55 Growing up in Iran 6:52 Entered Crypto in 2019 8:05 Discovering Prediction Markets 10:08 Signal Behind the 2024 Elections 11:59 How Prediction Markets Disrupt Traditional Media 13:16 Traditional Media Prioritizes Incentives Over Truth 17:33 Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Model Wins? 18:25 Why is Kalshi or Polymarket enough? 19:43 Lessons Learned Building on Polymarket 21:07 Building Worm on Solana 21:56 What Is Worm and its special elements? 23:36 How Leverage Works on Prediction Markets 25:29 Hedging 27:33 Prediction Markets vs Options & Perps 29:15 How Liquidations Work 31:13 Why Leverage is more than a Gimmick 33:04 Building Leverage Was Harder Than Expected 34:12 Solving Liquidity Problem 36:05 How Worm Acquires Users 36:59 Inflection Point for Prediction Markets 39:06 Why Worm chose Solana 40:24 Becoming the Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets 42:26 Solana vs Hyperliquid: Which Wins? 45:00 Conclusionshow more

MR SHIFT 🦁

63,414 subscribers

31,123 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

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Комментарии: 13

Фото профиля Worm

Worm2 месяцев назад

@NassDiba 🪱🪱🪱

Фото профиля The Crypto Lawyer

The Crypto Lawyer2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba I always trust a PHD

Фото профиля Bokashaya

Bokashaya2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Leverage on prediction markets?

Фото профиля Hashufful

Hashufful2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Smart dude

Фото профиля Gmane

Gmane2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba scam platform do some DD and use the product before having scammers on absolutely horribe product !!! @KevinWSHPod

Фото профиля El buboon

El buboon2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Nice

Фото профиля La chicha nona

La chicha nona2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Why Solana ?

Фото профиля B1ts

B1ts2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba leverage on prediction markets changes the signal. position size stops reflecting conviction when risk management enters the calculation. the cleaner read is unlevered volume – how many $10 yes bets vs $1000 ones. worm's thesis works if depth is additive, not just positional.

Фото профиля The Pre Rich Kid

The Pre Rich Kid2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Banger for sure

Фото профиля Drifter

Drifter2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Look at this

Фото профиля Abhay 📍NYC

Abhay 📍NYC2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Love seeing builders with this kind of background choosing to build their thing on HL. The caliber of founders showing up in the ecosystem lately is its own bullish signal.

Фото профиля El crypto caporal

El crypto caporal2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba Hyperliquid of Prediction Markets.. wow

Фото профиля 2001DeFi

2001DeFi2 месяцев назад

@wormwtf @NassDiba prediction markets are the next generation of media 💯

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My conversation with Rob Hadick ＞|＜. As General Partner at Dragonfly, Rob has one of the clearest views on how blockchain is evolving from speculative crypto into the actual infrastructure of global capital markets. In this episode we dig into why finance, payments, asset issuance, and markets are the only parts of crypto that are truly scaling and how the industry is quietly becoming TradFi’s onchain upgrade. We spend a lot of time mapping traditional capital markets primitives directly onto blockchain rails and examining where value is actually going to accrue as tokenization, stablecoins, and onchain trading mature. At the center of the conversation is the belief that blockchain is no longer building a parallel financial system it is becoming the settlement, issuance, and trading layer for the existing one, while crypto itself settles into a more mature “capital markets +” phase focused on real assets, institutional flows, and sustainable business models. We discuss: - The current state of crypto as capital markets infrastructure and the decline of pure speculative narratives - Why finance, payments, and tokenization are winning while most other crypto applications struggle - The architectural parallel between traditional capital markets and on-chain systems - Tokenized assets = Securities - Stablecoins = Cash / settlement - DEXs & on-chain venues = Exchanges - Prediction markets = Information markets - Why institutions are moving on-chain and what they actually want (control, privacy, segregated markets) - Token vs equity: where value accrues in a non-Clarity Act world - The mass extinction event in crypto VC and why Dragonfly is doubling down on financial infrastructure - Stablecoins, RWAs, and the real path to “tokenization of everything” - Prediction markets (and why Polymarket matters) as the next interface layer - Sustainable business models and where value will ultimately capture Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction & State of Crypto as Capital Markets 2:00 – Why Speculative Narratives Are Fading 7:00 – Finance, Payments & Tokenization as the Only Scaling Verticals 12:00 – Institutional Adoption & What Wall Street Actually Wants 18:00 – Token vs Equity Value Accrual 25:00 – Blockchain as the New Settlement & Issuance Layer 35:00 – Prediction Markets, Information & the Next Interface 45:00 – Crypto VC Consolidation & Dragonfly’s Thesis 55:00 – Real-World Assets, Stablecoins & On-Chain Markets 1:05:00 – Closing Thoughts: Where Value Accrues Next Enjoy!

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50,206 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 TOM LEE ON $HOOD: "IT COULD 100X IN TEN YEARS" Here's my conversation with Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com. We discuss why Robinhood's Q2 beat got sold off, Kalshi vs. Robinhood, and Robinhood Chain's huge success out of the gate. We also discuss what Robinhood looks like in a decade, and why he thinks the company's real competition in 10 years isn't Schwab/IBKR but J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. Thanks to Tom for joining the show! 00:55 - Robinhood Q2 earnings 02:34 - Tom Lee's $HOOD price target 03:42 - Prediction markets 05:14 - Kalshi is a call-option for Robinhood 06:39 - Kalshi vs. Robinhood 07:01 - Prediction markets regulatory risk 08:51 - Prediction markets size + fragmentation 14:02 - Robinhood Chain is a "breakaway success" 17:49 - Memecoins, then real-world assets 22:21 - Tom Lee's thoughts on Hyperliquid 25:14 - Robinhood could 100x in ten years 🤯 27:30 - Tom's thoughts on founder/CEO Vlad Tenev 29:17 - Weekend 24/7 markets 30:25 - MrBeast $200M investment Not financial or legal advice

🚨 TOM LEE ON $HOOD: "IT COULD 100X IN TEN YEARS" Here's my conversation with Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com. We discuss why Robinhood's Q2 beat got sold off, Kalshi vs. Robinhood, and Robinhood Chain's huge success out of the gate. We also discuss what Robinhood looks like in a decade, and why he thinks the company's real competition in 10 years isn't Schwab/IBKR but J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. Thanks to Tom for joining the show! 00:55 - Robinhood Q2 earnings 02:34 - Tom Lee's $HOOD price target 03:42 - Prediction markets 05:14 - Kalshi is a call-option for Robinhood 06:39 - Kalshi vs. Robinhood 07:01 - Prediction markets regulatory risk 08:51 - Prediction markets size + fragmentation 14:02 - Robinhood Chain is a "breakaway success" 17:49 - Memecoins, then real-world assets 22:21 - Tom Lee's thoughts on Hyperliquid 25:14 - Robinhood could 100x in ten years 🤯 27:30 - Tom's thoughts on founder/CEO Vlad Tenev 29:17 - Weekend 24/7 markets 30:25 - MrBeast $200M investment Not financial or legal advice

Hood House

211,167 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

How To Win Crypto's Next Bull Market | Rob Hadick ＞|＜ 00:00 Institutional Adoption 02:00 Dragonfly's Investment Strategy 02:52 What Really Happened on October 10th 06:52 The Rise of Leverage and Prediction Markets 07:34 Why Dragonfly Invested in Polymarket 11:29 Why All Of Finance Is Moving On-Chain 12:36 How Retail Can Benefit From Tokenization 15:16 Token vs Equity: Where Does Value Accrue? 16:41 What Will the Next Crypto Bull Market Look Like? 20:19 Why Crypto Has Become Less Interesting 21:28 Who Is Buying Altcoins Now? 22:25 Institutions Are Coming Back to Crypto 23:36 Selective Alt Seasons 25:10 Final Thoughts on Crypto's Long-Term Future

How To Win Crypto's Next Bull Market | Rob Hadick ＞|＜ 00:00 Institutional Adoption 02:00 Dragonfly's Investment Strategy 02:52 What Really Happened on October 10th 06:52 The Rise of Leverage and Prediction Markets 07:34 Why Dragonfly Invested in Polymarket 11:29 Why All Of Finance Is Moving On-Chain 12:36 How Retail Can Benefit From Tokenization 15:16 Token vs Equity: Where Does Value Accrue? 16:41 What Will the Next Crypto Bull Market Look Like? 20:19 Why Crypto Has Become Less Interesting 21:28 Who Is Buying Altcoins Now? 22:25 Institutions Are Coming Back to Crypto 23:36 Selective Alt Seasons 25:10 Final Thoughts on Crypto's Long-Term Future

The Wolf Of All Streets

102,846 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Tom Sosnoff (Tom Sosnoff ) has built two different companies worth over $1 billion. Now he is building his third and giving away $1 million of crypto to the first users. We discuss why volatility creates opportunity, how he thinks about active investing across asset classes, and why he believes crypto deserves a place in every portfolio. We also talk about options trading, oil and commodity volatility, the rise of self-directed investors, prediction markets, AI’s role in portfolio construction and financial advice, and how Tom is thinking about building the next generation of investing tools. YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:52 - The real problem with today’s economy & the future of investing 5:26 - Rise of the self-directed investor 8:55 - How to trade extreme market volatility 11:08 - Why everyone should own bitcoin 12:09 - Selling volatility & options strategies 20:25 - Navigating chaos in today’s macro environment 22:19 - Trader mindset vs entrepreneur mindset 24:29 - Building an AI investing platform 26:38 - Why options trading is exploding 28:30 - Thoughts around Prediction Markets 32:46 - How AI will disrupt financial advisors 34:40 - Tom’s $1M crypto giveaway

Tom Sosnoff (Tom Sosnoff ) has built two different companies worth over $1 billion. Now he is building his third and giving away $1 million of crypto to the first users. We discuss why volatility creates opportunity, how he thinks about active investing across asset classes, and why he believes crypto deserves a place in every portfolio. We also talk about options trading, oil and commodity volatility, the rise of self-directed investors, prediction markets, AI’s role in portfolio construction and financial advice, and how Tom is thinking about building the next generation of investing tools. YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:52 - The real problem with today’s economy & the future of investing 5:26 - Rise of the self-directed investor 8:55 - How to trade extreme market volatility 11:08 - Why everyone should own bitcoin 12:09 - Selling volatility & options strategies 20:25 - Navigating chaos in today’s macro environment 22:19 - Trader mindset vs entrepreneur mindset 24:29 - Building an AI investing platform 26:38 - Why options trading is exploding 28:30 - Thoughts around Prediction Markets 32:46 - How AI will disrupt financial advisors 34:40 - Tom’s $1M crypto giveaway

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

74,476 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

"There are crypto bros on Discord making decisions on $10 million markets." My full conversation with the Somnia and Improbable team on how they're rebuilding prediction markets so no human can rig them. 00:00 Intro 02:59 Why they ignored don't work with friends 05:20 The person who gets you to ten can't get you to a hundred 07:06 Why chasing bronze medals beats winning 10:01 Sleeping under desks and 1600 interviews 18:50 How AI decides what is actually true 28:07 Why AI is the best teacher ever made 31:14 Why crypto was right all along 35:31 The plan to fight propaganda 43:52 Prediction markets are not gambling 49:43 Was it an invasion? Depends who you ask 52:08 Why ChatGPT can't count the Rs in raspberry

"There are crypto bros on Discord making decisions on $10 million markets." My full conversation with the Somnia and Improbable team on how they're rebuilding prediction markets so no human can rig them. 00:00 Intro 02:59 Why they ignored don't work with friends 05:20 The person who gets you to ten can't get you to a hundred 07:06 Why chasing bronze medals beats winning 10:01 Sleeping under desks and 1600 interviews 18:50 How AI decides what is actually true 28:07 Why AI is the best teacher ever made 31:14 Why crypto was right all along 35:31 The plan to fight propaganda 43:52 Prediction markets are not gambling 49:43 Was it an invasion? Depends who you ask 52:08 Why ChatGPT can't count the Rs in raspberry

JackGK

13,333 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Inside the mind of an ex-SIG quant trader who can't turn off the EV brain - even for his kid's school choice Andrew Courtney (Andrew Courtney) ran the International ETFs Trading Desk at Susquehanna International Group for ~15 years before leaving in 2023. He now runs Kalshionomics (Kalshinomics), a prediction markets analytics tool, and writes the Whirligig Bear, one of the sharpest prediction markets Substacks out there. "I think of everything as a bet. I kind of don't understand how you talk to normal people — they do not do that." SIG trains their junior traders with poker, spending 2hrs/day turning over cards after every hand, justifying every decision quantitatively AND qualitatively. 15 years later, Andrew views prediction markets the same way: read who's on the other side, size accordingly, fold when the whale comes back at you 10x. We cover: - Why SIG pays junior traders to play poker for 2hrs/day — & what happens after every single hand - The "one eye on the market, always" attention tax that destroys most people's careers - How to find edge in prediction markets by asking: who am I actually trading against? - Why meme-heavy, overhyped markets (Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl) might be the juiciest trades - The insider trading debate in prediction markets — & why it's "socially corrosive" - Floor trading vs. upstairs quant: why the transition saved his career - 40 connections after ~15 years at one of the world's best firms — the hidden cost of prop trading - Why he doesn't have collision insurance on his car (& the EV math behind it) Thank you so much Andrew Courtney for coming on the pod! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:00 Floor trading vs. electronic trading 06:28 What makes an upstairs trader 10:16 Poker as trader training 13:00 Thinking in bets as a mental framework 15:11 Decision trees in real life 16:40 Where prediction markets actually have edge 19:00 Why the LLM forecasting layer falls short 19:40 Liquidity incentives and trading low-volume markets 22:00 Limiting downside even when the model is wrong 24:32 Executing in illiquid markets 25:44 Fair value vs. directional conviction 27:11 Bayesian updating when liquidity responds 28:40 Fading hype and crowded narratives 31:07 Longshot bias vs. fanbase bias 34:20 How to judge whether you really have edge 36:40 Building analytics tools for prediction markets 38:20 The temporary edge for smart amateurs 40:35 Where prediction markets fit best 41:20 Markets that shouldn’t exist 43:20 Why insider trading corrodes incentives 46:52 Are prediction markets a net good or bad 50:47 Minimizing degeneracy and maximizing signal 53:32 A simple EV mindset anyone can use

Inside the mind of an ex-SIG quant trader who can't turn off the EV brain - even for his kid's school choice Andrew Courtney (Andrew Courtney) ran the International ETFs Trading Desk at Susquehanna International Group for ~15 years before leaving in 2023. He now runs Kalshionomics (Kalshinomics), a prediction markets analytics tool, and writes the Whirligig Bear, one of the sharpest prediction markets Substacks out there. "I think of everything as a bet. I kind of don't understand how you talk to normal people — they do not do that." SIG trains their junior traders with poker, spending 2hrs/day turning over cards after every hand, justifying every decision quantitatively AND qualitatively. 15 years later, Andrew views prediction markets the same way: read who's on the other side, size accordingly, fold when the whale comes back at you 10x. We cover: - Why SIG pays junior traders to play poker for 2hrs/day — & what happens after every single hand - The "one eye on the market, always" attention tax that destroys most people's careers - How to find edge in prediction markets by asking: who am I actually trading against? - Why meme-heavy, overhyped markets (Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl) might be the juiciest trades - The insider trading debate in prediction markets — & why it's "socially corrosive" - Floor trading vs. upstairs quant: why the transition saved his career - 40 connections after ~15 years at one of the world's best firms — the hidden cost of prop trading - Why he doesn't have collision insurance on his car (& the EV math behind it) Thank you so much Andrew Courtney for coming on the pod! Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 05:00 Floor trading vs. electronic trading 06:28 What makes an upstairs trader 10:16 Poker as trader training 13:00 Thinking in bets as a mental framework 15:11 Decision trees in real life 16:40 Where prediction markets actually have edge 19:00 Why the LLM forecasting layer falls short 19:40 Liquidity incentives and trading low-volume markets 22:00 Limiting downside even when the model is wrong 24:32 Executing in illiquid markets 25:44 Fair value vs. directional conviction 27:11 Bayesian updating when liquidity responds 28:40 Fading hype and crowded narratives 31:07 Longshot bias vs. fanbase bias 34:20 How to judge whether you really have edge 36:40 Building analytics tools for prediction markets 38:20 The temporary edge for smart amateurs 40:35 Where prediction markets fit best 41:20 Markets that shouldn’t exist 43:20 Why insider trading corrodes incentives 46:52 Are prediction markets a net good or bad 50:47 Minimizing degeneracy and maximizing signal 53:32 A simple EV mindset anyone can use

Ethan Kho

436,074 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

“Retail loves options when they don’t know they’re options.” marty joins the Insilico Terminal Podcast to talk about crypto options, market making, and why perps became the default product for retail traders. We covered FTX, Deribit, Hyperliquid, prediction markets, structured products, vol selling, and why options can be both more powerful and more dangerous than perps. 00:00 Marty’s path from early Bitcoin to market making 06:17 Becoming a top FTX perps and spot market maker 12:00 Why crypto options are still behind perps 16:17 How institutions use structured products 20:31 Why DeFi options struggled and what changed 25:03 Prediction markets, binary options, and retail gambling 30:37 Better ways to express directional trades with options 37:51 Surviving 10/10, volatility spikes, and exchange outages 43:14 Why Marty is skeptical about the current crypto market 52:01 Bitcoin’s narrative problem and what could bring it back

“Retail loves options when they don’t know they’re options.” marty joins the Insilico Terminal Podcast to talk about crypto options, market making, and why perps became the default product for retail traders. We covered FTX, Deribit, Hyperliquid, prediction markets, structured products, vol selling, and why options can be both more powerful and more dangerous than perps. 00:00 Marty’s path from early Bitcoin to market making 06:17 Becoming a top FTX perps and spot market maker 12:00 Why crypto options are still behind perps 16:17 How institutions use structured products 20:31 Why DeFi options struggled and what changed 25:03 Prediction markets, binary options, and retail gambling 30:37 Better ways to express directional trades with options 37:51 Surviving 10/10, volatility spikes, and exchange outages 43:14 Why Marty is skeptical about the current crypto market 52:01 Bitcoin’s narrative problem and what could bring it back

Insilico Terminal

18,829 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old. Camilo Saravia (camilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital. "I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity." We cover: - Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society - Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation - Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work - His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal" - Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok - Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that - Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out - Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute - Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY" - The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth - A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture - Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution Highlights: (00:00) Intro (00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map (03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity (04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature (08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop (12:43) Where edge actually comes from (14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day (17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office (21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model (23:51) How to underwrite elite talent (25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point (30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time) (37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate (44:45) The abundance mindset (48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital" (50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet (51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets (53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could (55:49) There's a business behind everything (01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market (01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities (01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start (01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right (01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models

Inside the Billionaire Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund. Run by a 24-Year-Old. Camilo Saravia (camilo), founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic prediction markets fund backed by Daniel Howard of Halo Capital. "I don't want more capital. I'm extremely long our equity." We cover: - Why insider trading in prediction markets is terrible for liquidity and GOOD for society - Prediction markets as cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop and disinformation - Why he turned down the allocator question entirely, and the "Goldilocks zone" that makes a fund this size work - His research team's actual mission statement: "collapse the entropy of the internet into signal" - Trading Spotify streams and measuring how fast Mamdani viralizes vs Cuomo on TikTok - Why beating earnings has almost no correlation with the stock going up, and why only testing reveals that - Mention markets as literal next-word prediction, and how makers got sniped out - Hiring missionaries with a mercenary work style, and why every hire takes a pay cut vs Citadel, Jane Street, Wintermute - Daniel Howard's mandate: faster, more risk, more aggression. "They haven't backed me to print 7% APY" - The abundance mindset, from a kid with immigrant parents sitting across from generational wealth - A venture mindset applied to public equities: pulling the thread from free cash flow down to Glassdoor culture - Why you never need to be binarily right: buy at 20, sell at 40, never wait for resolution Highlights: (00:00) Intro (00:56) Taker vs maker, reflexive vs proactive: the strategy map (03:08) What makes an event contract different from an equity (04:53) Insider trading in prediction markets: bug or feature (08:18) Cash-backed truth in a world of AI slop (12:43) Where edge actually comes from (14:19) The dataset: billions of records a day (17:44) Building a money management business from an empty office (21:34) Why asset management competes with software as a business model (23:51) How to underwrite elite talent (25:50) Missionaries vs mercenaries, and why the tension is the point (30:54) Recruiting against Citadel money (and losing on salary every time) (37:32) "We can't compromise speed": the Daniel Howard mandate (44:45) The abundance mindset (48:28) "Why should I invest?" / "I don't want more capital" (50:12) Collapsing the entropy of the internet (51:04) Spotify streams, TikTok virality, and mention markets (53:17) The one data provider he'd long if he could (55:49) There's a business behind everything (01:00:07) How to find the real drivers in any market (01:04:04) A venture mindset applied to public equities (01:10:06) Prediction markets 101: where to actually start (01:12:05) Why you don't need to be binarily right (01:13:19) Final question: building personal edge against the models

Ethan Kho

127,789 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

"Prediction markets have basically killed the altcoin casino." The Wolf Of All Streets joins Jenn Sanasie to discuss why retail left alts, why $ZEC as "private Bitcoin" makes him want to puke, and where $BTC goes from here. 00:00 - Scott Melker Joins Markets Outlook 01:38 - Why Bitcoin Is Underrated 03:59 - Is Crypto Recreating the System It Was Built to Fight? 06:08 - Scott’s Bitcoin Origin Story 08:04 - Why This Market Feels Impossible to Read 10:07 - How Prediction Markets Killed the Altcoin Casino 13:33 - Teaching His Kids About Bitcoin and AI in a Complicated World 16:22 - AI Tokens and Zcash Outlook 18:33 - Zcash as Privacy Bitcoin: “It Makes Me Want to Puke” 19:46 - Scott's Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year

"Prediction markets have basically killed the altcoin casino." The Wolf Of All Streets joins Jenn Sanasie to discuss why retail left alts, why $ZEC as "private Bitcoin" makes him want to puke, and where $BTC goes from here. 00:00 - Scott Melker Joins Markets Outlook 01:38 - Why Bitcoin Is Underrated 03:59 - Is Crypto Recreating the System It Was Built to Fight? 06:08 - Scott’s Bitcoin Origin Story 08:04 - Why This Market Feels Impossible to Read 10:07 - How Prediction Markets Killed the Altcoin Casino 13:33 - Teaching His Kids About Bitcoin and AI in a Complicated World 16:22 - AI Tokens and Zcash Outlook 18:33 - Zcash as Privacy Bitcoin: “It Makes Me Want to Puke” 19:46 - Scott's Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year

CoinDesk

22,771 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

I sat down with Arthur Hayes to discuss the Iran conflict, bitcoin, gold, oil, inflation, deflation, decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, privacy coins, and why he thinks insider trading should be legal. YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:49 - Iran war & oil market reaction 5:30 - Inflation vs deflation breakdown 7:42 - Why the Fed will always print money 9:08 - Gold vs bitcoin & global trade shift 14:20 - Arthur Hayes portfolio strategy 17:54 - Hyperliquid & the future of trading 24:20 - Insider trading should be legal? 27:59 - Why bitcoin doesn’t need institutions 32:09 - Zcash & privacy in crypto 35:23 - What Arthur is bearish on in crypto 40:30 - How big Hyperliquid can get 42:24 - Will prediction markets be successful? 46:45 - Final market outlook

I sat down with Arthur Hayes to discuss the Iran conflict, bitcoin, gold, oil, inflation, deflation, decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, privacy coins, and why he thinks insider trading should be legal. YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:49 - Iran war & oil market reaction 5:30 - Inflation vs deflation breakdown 7:42 - Why the Fed will always print money 9:08 - Gold vs bitcoin & global trade shift 14:20 - Arthur Hayes portfolio strategy 17:54 - Hyperliquid & the future of trading 24:20 - Insider trading should be legal? 27:59 - Why bitcoin doesn’t need institutions 32:09 - Zcash & privacy in crypto 35:23 - What Arthur is bearish on in crypto 40:30 - How big Hyperliquid can get 42:24 - Will prediction markets be successful? 46:45 - Final market outlook

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

74,931 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

I CAUGHT THE $436,000 INSIDER Episode 3 of PredictTime is live - and you'll hear this story straight from the source tre 🇨🇦, founder of Polysights. We go deep - into how his platform catches insiders on Polymarket before the news drops and into his life journey Everything you need to know about insider trading in prediction markets - is in this episode Timecodes: 00:00 — Cold open / Highlights 00:51 — The $436k profit case: how a $34k order paid out before the news 01:05 — Meet Tre, founder of Polysights 01:35 — How Polysights spots anomalies: radar score and wallet clusters 03:17 — What Polysights actually does: advanced analytics for prediction markets 04:00 — From aircraft engineering to the Canadian Air Force 05:01 — Entrepreneurial roots: e-commerce and dropshipping 06:13 — Selling the first company at 23 and getting paid in crypto 08:21 — Were meme coins detrimental or a launchpad into Web3? 09:46 — The "Fatherhood Buff": how a son changes drive and risk 12:03 — Rank 1 in WoW: gaming as training for founders 14:35 — From PredictFun on Blast to Polymarket: trader-first, builder-second 16:35 — Building Insider Finder: scoring every trade on Polymarket 19:34 — The Maduro case in detail: why it wasn't posted publicly 21:18 — Mayor Eric Adams dropout: prediction markets vs mainstream media 22:24 — MicroStrategy markets: 6–0 on recycled wallets 26:50 — Philosophy: why insider trading accelerates truth 30:56 — Disagreeing with Kalshi's CEO: the centralized vs decentralized divide 35:19 — If the CFTC bans insider trading: validation or death? 48:09 — Arbitrage across Polymarket, Kalshi and sportsbooks 50:48 — Why prediction markets finally boomed in 2024–2025 54:39 — Alpha decay and growing to 45,000 users 55:59 — The Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT moment 58:08 — Fundraising $1.5M from Halifax: the lead VC drama 01:02:26 — Business model: moving away from subscriptions 01:04:21 — No-code automated trading strategies as the future 01:13:20 — Roadmap: V1 by Q2 and a regulated prediction market in Canada 01:16:24 — Solo founder reality: from intern-only to an ex-Meta tech lead 01:18:46 — Crucial advice: don't build another trading terminal 01:20:27 — Breaking in with no connections, no VCs, no hub 01:24:58 — Rapid-fire: Ferrari, Bitcoin to $1M, Hyperliquid vs Kalshi 01:27:35 — The biggest insider trade he can't prove: Lord Miles 01:28:12 — Role models: CZ, Kobe, Shane, Elon 01:30:00 — Final advice: stop overthinking and take the swing

I CAUGHT THE $436,000 INSIDER Episode 3 of PredictTime is live - and you'll hear this story straight from the source tre 🇨🇦, founder of Polysights. We go deep - into how his platform catches insiders on Polymarket before the news drops and into his life journey Everything you need to know about insider trading in prediction markets - is in this episode Timecodes: 00:00 — Cold open / Highlights 00:51 — The $436k profit case: how a $34k order paid out before the news 01:05 — Meet Tre, founder of Polysights 01:35 — How Polysights spots anomalies: radar score and wallet clusters 03:17 — What Polysights actually does: advanced analytics for prediction markets 04:00 — From aircraft engineering to the Canadian Air Force 05:01 — Entrepreneurial roots: e-commerce and dropshipping 06:13 — Selling the first company at 23 and getting paid in crypto 08:21 — Were meme coins detrimental or a launchpad into Web3? 09:46 — The "Fatherhood Buff": how a son changes drive and risk 12:03 — Rank 1 in WoW: gaming as training for founders 14:35 — From PredictFun on Blast to Polymarket: trader-first, builder-second 16:35 — Building Insider Finder: scoring every trade on Polymarket 19:34 — The Maduro case in detail: why it wasn't posted publicly 21:18 — Mayor Eric Adams dropout: prediction markets vs mainstream media 22:24 — MicroStrategy markets: 6–0 on recycled wallets 26:50 — Philosophy: why insider trading accelerates truth 30:56 — Disagreeing with Kalshi's CEO: the centralized vs decentralized divide 35:19 — If the CFTC bans insider trading: validation or death? 48:09 — Arbitrage across Polymarket, Kalshi and sportsbooks 50:48 — Why prediction markets finally boomed in 2024–2025 54:39 — Alpha decay and growing to 45,000 users 55:59 — The Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT moment 58:08 — Fundraising $1.5M from Halifax: the lead VC drama 01:02:26 — Business model: moving away from subscriptions 01:04:21 — No-code automated trading strategies as the future 01:13:20 — Roadmap: V1 by Q2 and a regulated prediction market in Canada 01:16:24 — Solo founder reality: from intern-only to an ex-Meta tech lead 01:18:46 — Crucial advice: don't build another trading terminal 01:20:27 — Breaking in with no connections, no VCs, no hub 01:24:58 — Rapid-fire: Ferrari, Bitcoin to $1M, Hyperliquid vs Kalshi 01:27:35 — The biggest insider trade he can't prove: Lord Miles 01:28:12 — Role models: CZ, Kobe, Shane, Elon 01:30:00 — Final advice: stop overthinking and take the swing

Predict Time

58,209 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад